External Plan B for Joe Nathan?
So I had a random thought; Hopefully Joe Nathan is just fine and he's working his way through scar tissue in his elbow after surgery this offseason, but if not, if he needs more surgery and is going to be out for an extended period, what about an option that's not currently on the team? There's an option out there that is getting up there in years, but in his career he has 213 wins and 154 saves. And Gardy might not have a more favorite guy on the team given his "grizzled" veteran status. If you haven't guessed already, I'm talking about John Smoltz. Here's why I'd like to see this IF the worst case scenario with Nathan presents itself:
1) He's still on the market. I'm not sure there's a better guy out there on the relief market, despite his advancing age of 42.
2) Tied in with the above, he's going to come cheap. You figure he's not going to cost more than a couple of million dollars for 2010, which is not unimportant for a team that's already pushing its payroll of $96 million to the limits.
3) The Twins offer him a great opportunity, not only for the opportunity to close once again, but also of a real contender this year, with a much improved lineup and a very solid group of setup men.
4) He'd be a tremendous influence on a young staff, especially a guy like Francisco Liriano, and a talented crop of possible 2010 young, talented relievers like Anthony Slama, Alex Burnett, Rob Delaney, and maybe, if he rises quickly, Billy Bullock.
5) He's been a closer before, and been a damn good one. Maybe the best I've ever seen, with apologies to Dennis Eckersley and Mariano Rivera. Smoltz has been a HOF caliber starter in his career, so it makes sense he'd dominate in relief. But what he did for his 3 years in Atlanta as closer was elite, highlighted by his 2003 campaign when he had an absurd ERA+ of 383 -- you read that right, 383 -- and gave up just 8 Earned Runs in 64.1 innings of work. Not everyone can close, but John Smoltz has certainly demonstrated that he can, and then some.
5) And this is the most important point, but also it's biggest question mark; Can he still wing it? His time in Boston in 2009 was nothing to write home about. Was it mechanical, as he seems to claim, or has the age-decline just finally taken its toll?
His ERA+ in 2008 with Atlanta was still an amazing 164, albeit in 28 innings. In 2007, it was 140, in over 200 innings. In 2009 with Boston? A pathetic ERA+ of 56 in 40 innings. In St. Louis he rebounded to a slightly below average ERA+ of 96 in 38 innings. Not exactly screaming "sign him" but a huge improvement over his short time in Boston. Of course the leagues and division change probably factored into that, as he went from the best division in the sport to arguably its worst. But the improvement was still there. His K/9 was a solid 9.5 and his K/BB was a great 4.44 with the Cardinals. And let's not forget that his entire 2009 with the Cardinals came as a starter. One has to think that he could improve, maybe greatly so, on those numbers as a reliever again.
Smoltz also sported a BAbip of .354 for the year, which is pretty ridiculously high. That means a huge portion of his numbers last year were due to bad luck.
In summation, I hope we don't even need this option. I hope Joe Nathan's right elbow is just sore and he'll be back to being (arguably) the best closer in baseball by April, but if not I'd take a long look at John Smoltz. Yes he's old. He's 42 years old, turning 43 in late May. Not to make a comparison, but the great Mariano Rivera is turning 41 in 2010, and Trevor Hoffman is turning 43. I'm not sure John Smoltz has more left in the tank. I'm not sure he's the same guy that's a sure-fire Hall of Famer. I'm not sure he'd make a good closer for the Twins in 2010 if needed. But if the worst case scenario plays out with Joe Nathan, I'd sure like to see the Twins take a flyer to find out.
20 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I'd be interested at a bargain price.
The problem is he’s a future HoF’r, and if I’m Smoltz’s agent and I recognize that the Twins are in need of a veteran closer, then I’m probably holding out for a $3 to $5 million contract. Which I wouldn’t be willing to do.
One of our deepest strengths is our bullpen, and you mention a few arms down on the farm who could come up and fill the extra roster spot if this kind of nightmare happens. The Twins would probably prefer to go that route, and promote Guerrier, Neshek, Rauch or Crain to that closer’s role, before they would pay a few million for Smoltz. But again, if he came for a few hundred grand or a million to play for a good team with a real shot at making something happen this year, then sure I’d take a flyer.
lirano
I was saying last August that it was time to trade Nathan at the end of the year. You could see that he was on the downside of his career. He is not coming back (at least effectively). It was a great run.
Liriano looks like he would make a great closer. He can come in with that nasty slider and not have to pace himself for 100 pitches.
Life is not fair - and we can be thankful for that
by Lost in Michigan on Mar 9, 2010 9:02 AM EST reply actions
Nathan torn ligament
Just heard Souhan report on KSTP radio from a Twins meeting. Probably out for the year.
good idea
from the Twins’s perspective, I think this is definitely worth checking out. I just don’t think Smoltz would be interested. He’s got all the money he could ever want. He’s a sure hall of famer. What motivation does he have to come out of retirement and move to Minnesota? I just don’t see it happening. It’s a great team, great guys, great community, but it’s just some random place in the midwest to him. If the Braves called him, maybe. I just don’t think he’d feel the same pull to come to Minneapolis. But if he really wants to play another year, and is willing to move, the Twins are a genuine contender. If he’s willing to move, sure, I’d be interested.
I think that's a question mark, for sure...
but what pull does he really have for a place like St. Louis or LA, for instance? And those are his “likely” destinations right now.
Smoltz was really set on being a starter last year.
When the Sox suggested a move to the bullpen after his bad start, he basically demanded out. I wouldn’t bet on Smoltz.
If Calero were still available, he would make sense, but the Mets swooped in there.
You could take a flier on Jason Isringhausen? He would come very cheap and, if he recaptured his pre-injury success, he could be very good.
USG
Getting more interested by the second...
considering the news about Nathan
Never hurts
to explore another arm.
What happens if ANOTHER arm goes down, folks.
Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!
Another injury
Means Perkins, Duensing, Slama, Delaney, Burnett, etc.
I think Neshek is more likely to start in the majors now instead of going to AAA.
I like Waldrop
He’s bona fide.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
This made me think of O Brother, Where Are Thou?
Thanks.
RonGarde: Target Field is going to be exactly like Progressive Field, except you'll have a chance to die of frostbite in the middle of July
That was the intent

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I noticed too that
Slama has #39 and Waldrop #57, low numbers for to invitees. Burnett #73 and Guerra #76 and they are both on the 40man roster.
by b1 on Mar 9, 2010 8:10 PM EST up reply actions
Waldrop has looked very good
I wonder what his cieling or highest end upside is
7th inning guy?
- Starter?
8th inning guy?
(answering my own question) For now, I’d have to say similar to Rob Delaney 6th and or 7th innings…..
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Mar 10, 2010 6:40 PM EST up reply actions
that was suppose to be #4 starter for Kyle W.
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Mar 10, 2010 6:41 PM EST up reply actions
Francisco Cordero
The Reds overpaid for Cordero. He could be available at the deadline for not much. Unfortunately he costs a lot of money so the Twins would have to get salary relief or send a high paid player back.
If we decide to go all internally for our closer
I say Jon Rauch early on. Matt Guerrier or even Jose Mijares if Rauch isn’t getting it done
and By Season’s end the hopeful Anthony Slama or even Alex Burnett, Van Mil, could be in the mix for a few 9th innings.
Obviously if we are unable to acquire a veteran closer via trade we will probably end up having a season much like the last 2 years going down to the very last game between 2 of Detroit, Chicago, and Minnesota
I’d love to trade to get Jason Frasor(Tor.), Trevor Hoffman(Mil.), George Sherrill(LA.) or even CoCo Cordero(Cin. / above)
But going outside the org is highly unlikely IMO.
+ other than Frasor ALL of those guys puts us to high over the cap IMO.
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Mar 10, 2010 6:39 PM EST reply actions

by 


















