Nathan and my power rankings

by Luke in MN on Mar 9, 2010 11:11 AM EST

Taking Nathan out of my projection system costs the Twins about 3-4 wins. Rankings are after the jump. (here's where I first posted about the way I do things: http://www.twinkietown.com/2010/2/18/1315802/power-rankings)

I updated the system to use the latest PECOTA data, which changed things pretty dramatically by itself on the pitching front. E.g., the Red Sox and Cardinals got even better, the Yankees and Angels got much worse. The Twins pitching also gets worse with the new data. Neshek, previously projected as quite good, is now projected with an ERA around 6.00. I just take the top 7 projected relievers under PECOTA to create my bullpens, so currently, Neshek doesn't even make the team. Some of PECOTA's calls seem odd to me, but I'm just a slave to the system, so there it is.

I also shifted from calculating runs scored using just team OPS to using team OBP, SLG, SB, and caught stealing all seperately. So that should give a little truer read on run scoring, but it didn't make dramatic changes. The Red Sox and Rays, e.g., edged up a tick since they figure to steal bases effectively.

The Twins went from winning about 88-89 games with the old PECOTA data and run-scoring system to winning about 86-87 with the new--from the 5th best team in baseball to the 9th. Still strong favorites in the division.

The loss of Nathan now takes the Twins down to about 83 wins and to the 13th best team in baseball. The next best team in the AL Central, now the Indians (who also improved with the new PECOTA data), project to about 79-80 wins. The Tigers and White Sox are close behind. So I think the Twins are still favorites, but it's become a pretty close race.

I added strength-of-schedule data in the tables below. One interesting thing for we Twins fans is that the Twins figure to have the easiest schedule in the AL. As with last time, the first set of data is figured against a neutral team, and the divisional rankings are figured by actually running the teams through their 2010 schedules.

	RSvR	RSvL	RS	RS rank	RA	RA rank	Def	Def Rank	Win%	W	L
Red Sox	5.31	5.44	5.35	4	3.90	2	35	1	0.61	99	63
Cardinals	5.09	5.29	5.15	5	3.87	1	32	2	0.59	95	67
Rays	5.34	5.52	5.39	2	4.28	4	15	7	0.56	92	70
Yankees	5.71	5.49	5.64	1	4.63	16	-7	17	0.55	89	73
Dodgers	4.96	5.25	5.05	12	4.35	7	-11	22	0.54	87	75
Phillies	5.15	5.05	5.12	8	4.38	10	13	9	0.53	86	76
Rockies	5.08	4.97	5.05	11	4.41	11	14	8	0.53	85	77
Rangers	5.03	5.13	5.06	10	4.38	8	17	6	0.52	85	77
Braves	4.95	4.94	4.95	15	4.38	9	-4	14	0.52	84	78
Athletics	4.87	4.74	4.83	21	4.30	5	19	5	0.51	83	79
Mariners	4.88	4.92	4.89	18	4.25	3	29	3	0.51	83	79
Diamondbacks	4.94	4.98	4.95	14	4.42	12	-9	20	0.51	82	80
Twins	5.43	5.14	5.35	3	4.82	24	3	11	0.50	81	81
Giants	4.59	4.90	4.68	28	4.34	6	-22	29	0.49	79	83
Cubs	4.72	5.24	4.88	19	4.54	14	-15	25	0.48	79	83
Indians	5.21	4.94	5.13	7	4.85	25	-7	17	0.48	77	85
Padres	4.77	4.66	4.73	25	4.57	15	-8	19	0.48	77	85
Marlins	4.86	5.11	4.93	17	4.65	18	-20	27	0.48	77	85
Orioles	5.10	5.24	5.15	6	4.87	27	3	11	0.47	77	85
Reds	4.71	4.76	4.73	26	4.53	13	10	10	0.47	76	86
Mets	4.84	5.16	4.94	16	4.73	21	-5	15	0.47	76	86
Tigers	4.67	5.12	4.80	22	4.70	20	21	4	0.47	76	86
White Sox	4.71	5.00	4.79	23	4.67	19	-12	23	0.47	75	87
Brewers	5.02	5.27	5.10	9	4.96	29	-10	21	0.46	75	87
Nationals	4.87	4.85	4.86	20	4.75	23	-1	13	0.46	75	87
Astros	4.60	4.90	4.69	27	4.64	17	-6	16	0.45	74	88
Royals	4.66	4.64	4.65	29	4.74	22	-18	26	0.44	71	91
Blue Jays	4.69	4.89	4.75	24	4.86	26	-24	30	0.44	71	91
Angels	4.93	5.06	4.97	13	5.06	30	-20	27	0.44	71	91
Pirates	4.61	4.52	4.58	30	4.90	28	-14	24	0.41	67	95

		Wins	Losses	Strength
AL East	Red Sox	99	63	7
	Rays	92	70	6
	Yankees	88	74	4
	Orioles	75	87	2
	Blue Jays	69	93	1

AL Central	Twins	83	79	28
	Indians	80	82	25
	White Sox	77	85	21
	Tigers	77	85	20
	Royals	73	89	16

AL West	Rangers	87	75	27
	athletics	84	78	13
	mariners	83	79	5
	Angels	70	92	3

NL East	Phillies	86	76	12
	Braves	87	75	29
	Marlins	79	83	26
	Mets	77	85	9
	Nationals	76	86	15

NL Central	Cardinals	99	63	30
	Cubs	80	82	22
	Reds	78	84	24
	Brewers	76	86	18
	Astros	75	87	17
	Pirates	68	94	11

NL West	Dodgers	88	74	19
	Rockies	86	76	23
	Diamondbacks	82	80	14
	Giants	79	83	8
	Padres	78	84	10

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Nope

The Twins will not have worse pitching than the Nationals and the Royals. This is way too pessimistic for run prevention.

by DJL44 on Mar 9, 2010 5:39 PM EST reply actions

our rotation is weak

I would easily take the Royals with Greinke, Meche, Hochevar over Baker, Slowey and Pavano, admittedly, the Twins have more depth. Also, now that nathan is out, their bullpen might be better

The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot. -Joe Posnanski

by DaTwins on Mar 9, 2010 5:50 PM EST up reply actions