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Around SBN: What If This Is It For The Celtics? End Of An Era Looming

Winning by wearing women's underwear.

Despite being a big tech geek, one analog indulgence I still cling to is my print magazines.  You can't leave 5 Kindles laying on your coffee table to signal your interests to visitors.  I like throwing them in my messenger bag and being able to pull them out on the bus or at lunch or in line to get my morning coffee.  The longest running subscription I have is Sports Illustrated, to which I have subscribed on and off since I was getting Sports Illustrated for Kids in the early 90s.  

The latest issue (April 19, 2010) includes an article on our giant closer, Jon Rauch.  (It doesn't appear to be online)  The author Joe Sheehan makes a case that the rational thing for Gardenhire to do with the Twins closer situation is to do what the organization flirted with for a couple days in spring training: Closer by committee.   Sheehan makes the observation that Gardenhire has a very deep and diverse bullpen.  Rauch, Pat Neshek, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, and others, when healthy, all have great strengths that could be leveraged based on match-ups in the late innings.  Sheehan claims that the position of closer is an anomaly existing due to the save statistic. His point is that it's inefficient for managers to base their bullpen decisions on anything but the best match-up.

Star-divide

This is a persuasive argument, and one that many managers should take to heart.  Rigidly holding to designated roles is a recipe for disaster.   Gardenhire's aversion to using Nathan in the 8th inning is one example that comes to mind.  However, I will defend the closer position on a basis that may seem as "old school" in this sabermetrics era as my continued subscriptions to magazines in the mail.  

 

My position is that there is a little bit of team psychology to the closer position.  The role of closer is looked upon as a bullpen, if not team, leadership position.  He's the ace of the bullpen, and provides the same stability to a bullpen that a Roy Halladay provides to a starting rotation.  When the closer is performing well, it gives confidence to the entire team that any lead they earn will be safe.  It allows guys to play loose and confident, instead of gripping the bat too tightly or rushing that throw to first. Does Sheehan really think that when Tony La Russa redefined the modern closer role with Dennis Eckersley, that he was doing it to help his fantasy team?

A successful closer does not just strike out a lot of batters, but he also instills confidence in his team that they will win.  A closer-by-committee arrangement cannot give this same confidence to the team.  Pitchers are not sure of their role, so they get nervous and anxious about each appearance, instead of being calm and breathing through their eyelids like the Mayans.  (Or the Aztecs, I can't remember which)  Of course, the committee approach could work wonders if the right confidence was instilled individually to each player and the match-ups were used to their fullest advantage.  However, this would require the coaching psychology and team management on a Herb Brooks-ian level. 

Obviously there is nothing rational about this, match-ups should be used exclusively in a quantifiable world.  Baseball players, like the rest of us, are hardly rational beings, and occasionally acknowledging that truth is essential.  Right now, the Twins are playing with the confidence that they are one of the best teams in baseball.  Does Jon Rauch being successful in the closer role have anything to do with that?  Jesse pointed out earlier that his stats are not dominant, despite his record so far.  The point is that the Twins have confidence in him right now, and that's enough to matter.

If you believe you're playing well because you're getting laid, or because you're not getting laid, or because you wear women's underwear, then you ARE! And you should know that!

-Crash Davis, "Bull Durham"

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Bull Durham

One of the greatest movies, let alone baseball movies, of all time.

by Jesse on Apr 26, 2010 8:46 AM EDT reply actions  

I have a theory that Bull Durham is the perfect movie.

They should’ve just stopped making movies after that.

"Sacrifice for the unknown" - Herb Brooks

by Dr. Yogi on Apr 26, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

What do have against women's underwear?

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"Positive happines come whit sucess if you no have that is all bs" -Ozzie Guillen

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Apr 26, 2010 12:11 PM EDT reply actions  

Ever since my teenage years

I have been on a crusade against bra clasps.

"Sacrifice for the unknown" - Herb Brooks

by Dr. Yogi on Apr 26, 2010 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Excellent post

I would like to point out that, in addition to being generally a great post (I go back and forth on the closer subject a bit for the same reasons), it is almost certainly the greatest title in TwinkieTown history.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Apr 26, 2010 12:40 PM EDT reply actions  

agreed

But, one complaint

This logic is all fine. Here’s the problem: there is no evidence supporting it. It makes sense, thus it might be right. The question is, until someone starts experimenting, it is too tough to tell whether one should play the numbers by the theory (use people in highest leverage situations), or play the psychology by the theory. I guess that’s the manager’s job.

I suspect that the managers that try and experiment first, will likely show that players, for the most part, should be used in the most important situations. Players will adapt to the new normal very quickly.

by snolls on Apr 26, 2010 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fair point.

I would say its almost impossible to quantify team psychology. There’s lots of talk about a guy being a “good clubhouse guy” or “a clubhouse cancer”. Obviously though, one guy in a clubhouse of two dozen does not control the entire team’s mojo. I’m a engineer and scientist. I love numbers. But, I think people also need to understand the limit of numbers.

“Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted.” – Albert Einstein

"Sacrifice for the unknown" - Herb Brooks

by Dr. Yogi on Apr 26, 2010 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yup

I’m a numbers guy as well. And I frequently complain that numbers people over-hype the reliability of their results. As if we needed good examples, I think that financial risk management theory (think bank implosions) are fantastic.

Many of the smartest minds in the world, physicists, mathematicians, finance and statistics experts, etc, developed this incredible theory to estimate the correlation of performance of different investments (e.g. if one stock tanks, how likely is it that some other stock will tank). The best math in the world showed that there was less than a 1 in 200, or 1 in a 1000 chance of them losing more than $XXX over any period.

It’s not that the math was wrong, that was the best guess anyone could achieve based on the available data. The problem was that there wasn’t enough data to rely upon, and the fact that everyone had these new theories meant that the world of the future would not be accurately represented by the data from the past.

Back to baseball: I completely agree that one has to be careful in relying on numbers, just because the best numbers available say something. You have to decide how to place your bets. We armchair quarterbacks get to state our theories, and say what we would do, but we don’t ever have to risk our team, our reputation, or our career on a decision like closer vs closer by committee. this is one of the key reasons that “common wisdom” survives – there is risk in being the first to try something different.

I still hold that it is an experiment worth trying – especially if you are in a position like the Twins are, where you don’t have an obvious closer, you have a good and deep bullpen, and you have the benefit of having some cushion between you and the competition in your division, but a gap between you and the elite teams in the league. You can afford to experiment a little, and likely make the playoffs even it you decide it doesn’t work out. However, maybe it will be beneficial, and it will help you close the gap to the Yankees, etc.

by snolls on Apr 27, 2010 8:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

definitely something to this, but not the whole story

I’d still rather see Nathan come in with two men on and no one out in the eighth inning, and someone else start the ninth with the bases empty. But I have no doubt that there’s a psychological impact to knowing you have a dominant closer. And it probably affects the other team too. If they’re down a run facing Guerrier in the eighth, they probably press a little, knowing it’s their last real chance to score. It could even affect a team’s hitters, just knowing that once they get a lead the game’s in hand. So I have no doubt there’s something to all this. But I still think you lose more games by refusing to use your best reliever when you need him most, because he only pitches the ninth with a lead. No numbers for either side, but arbitrarily ruling out a large number of pitcher batter combinations is a negativ thing in and of itself because it reduces the number of optimal matchups. Until I see numbers for something counterbalancing this, refusing to leverage your pitching matchups for some supposed psychological benefits still seems like a dodgy strategy.

by by jiminy on Apr 28, 2010 1:36 PM EDT reply actions  

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