Who Goes When J.J. Hardy Returns?
by Jesse on May 20, 2010 7:18 AM EDT
in Speculation
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PrintBecause you can't go with a two-man bench. Well...three-man bench, but Jim Thome can't play the field.
On Tuesday the Twins sent Matt Tolbert a-packin', back to Rochester. This is his last year with options, and clearly the Twins will make the most of it. In exchange they brought back Jeff Manship, he of the one-start-and-back-you-go variety, which brings the pitching staff to a rotund baker's dozen. On most days, your bench now consists of Thome, Drew Butera and, on alternating days, Brendan Harris or Alexi Casilla.
The Strib's Joe C had this to say on the move:
With shortstop J.J. Hardy expected to be activated from the disabled list on Friday, the Twins will likely will trim a pitcher again in a couple days. But with the bullpen taxed, Manship gives them an extra reliever for the next two games against the Red Sox, at least.
The question is: which pitcher? Yesterday, Nick discussed the problems Jesse Crain has encountered increasingly over the last couple of seasons, primarily the lack of movement in his arsenal. Jose Mijares was a punching bag early in the season, but has looked a bit better in his last couple of appearances (particularly picking up six swinging strikes against the Jays). Of course, the new guy on the block Manship might be up for just a couple of games to give the bullpen a blow before the Twins go back to regularly scheduled programming.
Minnesota's bullpen has pitched pretty well over the course of the first month and a half of the season, holding a 3.33 ERA which is good enough for third in the American League. More telling, opponent on-base percentage against the Twins 'pen is just .303, and they're slugging just .376 (good for 50 points better than the league average in OPS).
And all that without Joe Nathan. I'm shocked! Wink-wink, nudge-nudge.
The impression however, whether that's from Twins fans or from outsiders, is that the Minnesota bullpen is one of the weak links for the club. Getting Pat Neshek back will help, but which pitchers give the Twins the best bullpen going forward? There certainly seems to be some depth, and there are options in Rochester (including Anthony Slama), so changes are coming.
It sounds like Hardy will be back with the Twins tomorrow. Crain may be the popular option, as he's making the most money and a move now would save a decision when he becomes a free agent at season's end, but both Mijares and Manship have options. Who says goodbye?
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Alex Burnett.
Because of the guys with options, he makes the least sense, and I think it’s about time for one of those.
Manship
The smart money has gotta be on Manship, who doesn’t cost them anything to send back.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
He's probably be my guess, too.
Crain wouldn’t surprise me, but the Twins organization seems to go with experience over performance in situations like these.
Crain
I think there is some overreaction with Crain around these parts as well. Put it into context: he’s got a career 4.58 xFIP, and his current one is 4.84. He’s been a little unlucky, but he just isn’t a lot better than that. But he’s still not totally terrible. At some point they should stop tendering him anything, but snapping to judgement would be silly…
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
by AdamOnFirst on May 20, 2010 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
I've tried to defend Crain for a long time.
And I think it’s easy to do, because as you point out some of his numbers and peripherals insist he’s not as bad as his traditional metrics show. But at some point that has to turn into run prevention, or at least some kind of consistency.
It’s hard on relievers, because if you’re terrible once out of every five relief appearances your numbers are going to show it. Crain’s consistency is getting to me. At some point the peripherals have to match run prevention…or lack thereof.
Crain needs to learn a cutter
Jesse Crain has the proverbial “live arm,” but he just hasn’t delivered as an effective reliever. He needs to learn either a cutter or a splitter to get guys out. His fastball is peppy (94 to 96mph), but has zero movement, indicating that it should be used as an alternate pitch, not his bread and butter.
Unfortunately, Crain has no options left with the Twins, and if they release him, he will doubtless be snapped up by another team, which will promptly send him to the minors to learn… a cutter or a splitter. If he gets reasonable command of either pitch, it will increase his effectiveness dramatically, but he won’t be pitching for the Twins.
Frustrating.
it would be better than 50/50
But he’s still due about 1.4M. The other team would have to pay that. Since he does throw hard, I’d bet someone would grab him, but it wouldn’t be a complete shock if he passed through waivers.
by Milt on Tilt on May 20, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
There's not a lot of places for 4.58-to-4.84 xFIP relievers on a winning team.
Especially when the perception seems to be that there are at least a couple low-to-mid 4 guys waiting in the wings.
Sub-replacement level
A FIP of roughly 4.5 is replacement level out of the bullpen. I’d expect Delaney or Slama to do just as well.
by Jon Kammerer on May 20, 2010 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Off days
I heard the Twins are 6 games into a stretch of having 1 day off in 24 games
So there might be a need for a long guy.
Knowing Gardy’s love of keeping relievers in certain roles, I can’t see them keeping Crain
Why Manship in the first place?
Do they have a doubleheader coming up that I’m not aware of for which they need an extra starter? I don’t get the purpose of Manship making any appearance at all.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Reading between the lines.
This was a point I meant to bring up and completely forgot about as I wrote. It’s a little curious that they went this route instead of, say, bolstering the bench for the series by bringin back Luke Hughes or even an outfielder to give Span a breather. It makes me think that they are seriously considering what Crain’s future is with the team.
reading between the lines even further
Manship was called up on the 18th. Hardy comes off on the 21st. That’s 3 days. The waiver process takes 3 days. Crain was placed on waivers. If he was claimed, the Twins will let him go and his contract will be assumed by the team that claimed him. If he wasn’t claimed, they’ll send him to AAA.
Free Anthony Slama
by ajmargarine on May 20, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
The next day or two.
Let’s see if Crain, Manship and Mijares all get a chance to pitch. The Twins MAY wait until after the game on Friday to make a decision. But that they didn’t pull Baker early, when they could’ve (rain, picthes et al) and just used one reliever…wonder why the big concern over Manship, except that someone is underperofmring in the bullpen.
The Twins are still bullpen rich in reality. Neshek and Condrey still haven’t given much, if anything. Slama, Delaney, Waldrop are all in the wings. Hell, you might have Swarzak back, as well as Maroth coming thru from the left side. There’s the AAA bubble-guys: Lugo, Lahey, et al. Just have to clear some 40-man roster spots.
I am extremely happy for Duensing, who is a long reliever. Mahay could be on the oevrall bubble, down-the-line.
And, hey, does anyone remember Glen perkins. Maybe given major league meal money, he would shine ut of the bullpen in Target Field…players are known to be pouters when they are reduced to minor league professionals.
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Brian "Invisible Man" Duensing
He’s my favorite reliever right now. Comes in, throws a handful of pitches, gets three outs, then disappears like the Invisible Man. He’s snapping fastballs and curves with pinpoint control, and batters know it, which is why they tend to swing at his pitches and get themselves out so quickly.
Last night was an excellent example: On the first batter, one pitch, one fly ball out. Second guy, a handful of pitches, then an out. Third guy (RH batter), caught looking at the sweetest back-door curve in the whole game, wasn’t a strike until it broke about eight feet from the plate, then it just caught the lower outside corner. You can’t throw that pitch better than that. Beautiful.
He would make a good starter in my opinion
He gets outs quickly, meaning he can pitch much deeper into games and more effectively than a guy like Kevin Slowey for instance. I’m willing to predict he takes someone’s (maybe Slowey’s) place in the rotation by August with Mijares sliding into Duensing’s current role.
That got me thinking in an entirely different direction. Do you think Duensing, between the call up last year and the start this year, has made a starter (or two if they trade for one) expendable?
If Oswalt really is up for grabs the Twins seem to have a ton of ammunition if they are able to trade mid 20’s MLB pitching along with one or two out of the stable of prospects.
I really
don’t think I want Oswalt. He’s due something like $28 M on his contract still and the Twins don’t have the room to pick that up.
by Milt on Tilt on May 20, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s what I thought at first but really look at the numbers.
Oswalt
2010 15M
2011 16M
2012 16M with a 2M$ team buyout.
Assuming the Twins must have the “veteran” pitcher means that Pavano isn’t resigned for 2011. Now factor in Slowey (who is arb eligible for 2011) as the MLB pitcher traded. For the sake of argument working backwards off Blackburn’s extension Slowey might be getting just south of 4M. So net increase in Payroll would be
2010: +Pro-rated ~11M
2011: +5M*
(-7M for Pavano’s Money -3.75M for replacing Slowy with a Duensing or Manship)
2012: +2M (if they are scared to pay the 16M they can buy him out for 2M)
*Ironically what Punto is due if the Twins exercise the club option.
By jettisoning Punto (5M club option for 2011) and not resigning Pavano you’ve cleared 12M in payroll enough to cover 75% of Oswalt. Factor in that Slowey would have gotten a raise and now you have a minimum salary replacement and 100% of Oswalt is covered.
You also have to factor in the raises for everyone else.
I read somewhere, but can’t remember where right now, that if the Twins let all the FA’s go that will be around 23 million. The expected total raises, I thought was, 17 or so million. That leaves only 5 million to work with to just be at the payroll we are now…if the Twins do nothing.
I’m not sure if the numbers I just threw out are correct, but I do remember that if the Twins let go of all of their FA’s, the raises to the other players would almost eat up all of that.
I don’t see the Twins going to a $115-120 million dollar payroll next year.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
Sure people are “due” some raises but that’s besides the point. Raises shouldn’t be guarntees. Decisions have to be made. The Twins should objectivly decide if we Cuddles a raise to 10.5M. Or if that money can be spent elsewhere and he replaced by one of the outfield prospecst (or Kubel at half the price in 2011).
I don't think you get it
Major league contracts are guaranteed. Cuddyer is signed though 2011. If you release him, he still gets paid. So you’re saying you trade him? I suppose you could, but there’s no guarantee you get anywhere near his value in a trade.
The man is the best right handed hitter on the team. You take 30 HRs and 100 RBI out of the line-up and you seriously hurt your production. Who replaces him? Look how the White Sox are doing trying to replace Dye. Not so well, and Dye isn’t as good a hitter as Cuddyer.
I could see trading him if you had an outfielder of his caliber waiting for an opportunity. But you don’t. The closest guy is in A ball right now, and he’s not even close to the production Cuddyer put up when he was in A ball. Cuddyer was the best minor league outfielder we’ve had since moving to Minnesota (look it up). And he’s the best right fielder we’ve had since Bruno. Those guys are hard to replace. We went 18 years between trading Bruno and getting Cuddyer ready. Why would you throw that away?
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I guess we had Shane Mack
But I think of him more as a left fielder.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
you
overrate Cuddyer. There’s a chance at the end of the year were saying he’s the third best corner outfielder on this team
by Milt on Tilt on May 21, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Manship for now
Manship is a starter. The only reason they called him up now is in case Baker or Liriano have a short start. When that trouble is past, they’ll send Manship down (in time for his Friday start in Rochester) and activate JJ.
But I don’t think Crain is long for this team. Soon and very soon, we will see Slama. Gardy needs to have more than one righty he can count on in close-and-late situations. That’s not Crain. Last night, he tried Burnett. But it’s a little early to promote Burnett to short man. Keep him in the long role and get a good short guy up here. Slama is that guy.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
+1
I think you’re right about Manship and eventually Crain. Slama, I could see the Twins waiting until much later in the year, perhaps after the season, to add him to the 40-man roster and start the clock. Remember, we’re going to see Neshek back here soon, that will give us the second right handed guy, Burnett becomes the third.
by Adam Peterson on May 20, 2010 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Why is Mijares on this list?
I think it’s funny that 10 people voted for him to be given the heave-ho. In my estimation, he is going to be our primary 8th inning guy by the time we get into the second half of the season. He has already started to show signs of turning things around.
Yeah, he has...in two appearances.
He has a long way to go before he overtakes both Duensing and Mahay in the southpaw pecking order.
But he started slowly last year too
He seems to be one of those guys that doesn’t take the first couple months of the season seriously and then is lights-out when you need him to be down the stretch.
That was last year
Gardy and we the Fans want someone who plays hard everyday. This year we have Slama, Fox, Delaney, Waldrop and Duensing for a lefty. He’s on a short leach.
by b1 on May 20, 2010 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think it will take as long for Mijares as you think
when the light turns on for Mijares, he’s better than Mahay or even Duensing. The question is when will the light turn on, like we saw last year? I think coming back from the injury, it may already be on.
by Adam Peterson on May 20, 2010 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
He's fat
and has a poor attitude. I’d rather have Waldrop and Slama over him
by Milt on Tilt on May 20, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I see Robertson has been moved up to AAA
This could mean several things. He’s left handed, so does it mean the Twins are looking for a left for the Pen? Bad news for Perk, Mijares or Mahay. It probabily mean Manship will stay with the club for a while. I don’t think Roberson desirved the Move up, so the Twins must be looking for something.
I don't think Robertson being moved to AAA
means the Twins are looking at him for the MLB roster. I think it’s more likely a matter of arms in Rochester. With Swarzak and Maroth hurt, they need another starter.
by Adam Peterson on May 20, 2010 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions
If I were you it would be Crain
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by bestbostonsports on May 20, 2010 5:20 PM EDT reply actions
Startrib is saying that JJ won't be activated until Tuesday
They say he’s almost getting to the point where he’s not sore anymore, but he’s not quite there-unlikely to play this weekend.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
Oh and it also said...
Twins are probably going to send down Manship after tonight and call up an infielder. It won’t be Tolbert because of the 10 day rule and Hughes is on the DL. La Velle thinks this opens the door for Plouffe or Valencia.
I’d go with Plouffe and play him every day.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
Sheesh
They should have called up Plouffe in the first place!! AHHHHHHHHHH
(Tolbert doesn’t even deserve a 40man spot any more)
Free Trevor Plouffe
i completely agree
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
I have news! Jeff Manship was sent down to Rochester after the Boston game,
and Trevor Plouffe was called up.
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