What's With the Double Plays? (Three Theories)

by Jon Marthaler on May 31, 2010 9:00 AM EDT in By the Numbers

You should see all of my different methods for throwing the remote control. Sometimes, it's just a run-of-the-mill backhand toss onto the couch. Sometimes, it's a light toss straight up into the air. If I'm a bit more frustrated, I might go for the quick Federer-like overhand spike into the ottoman, or even a Connie Hawkins-like windmill slam off the chair. In rare cases, I've even gone with the "gun the remote across the room off of the facing couch" move, which usually leads to the batteries flying out like passengers in Erik Johnson's golf cart.

I mention this because I've used every single one of these moves in response to a Twins double-play grounder this year. And indeed, I've had plenty of opportunity; through last Friday, the team had hit into a ludicrous 61 double plays. Minnesota is no stranger to the twin killing - the team led the American League in 2005 and 2009, and has only been out of the AL top three once in five years - but they're on pace to bounce in to more than 200, fully fifty more than they hit into in 2009.

But why? Below, three theories, along with some numbers.

1. They're chokers in all pressure situations

Well, not really. The team's struggles with the bases loaded are well-documented - well below the Mendoza Line as a group - but in all runners-on-base situations, they're hitting .265, right in the middle of the AL. With runners in scoring position, they're fifth in the league. Other than with the bases loaded, they're not especially awful at the plate.

2. A lineup of mashers is also a lineup of plodders

True, the Twins do have Jim Thome, who may very well be the slowest player in the major leagues. (Somebody organize a race between Thome and all of the Molinas.) But otherwise, they don't seem to be particularly slow on the basepaths; through Thursday they were 33-for-100 going from first to third on a single, better than the league average of 28%. They were also 60% scoring from second on a single, above the league average there as well.

Granted, this is a crude measure of team speed, but I don't see any evidence the Twins are slower than any other team. (As a comparison: the White Sox are 16-for-75 going from first to third on a single, and Toronto has done it just eight times all year.)

3. More chances + More ground balls = More double plays

The math works - and the stats seem to back it up. I can't immediately find the numbers for "plate appearances with a man on first base and fewer than two out," but I do know that as of last week, the Twins led the AL in plate appearances with runners on base. They've taken the most walks in the AL in this situation (creating more GIDP chances); they're also among the least likely teams in the league to strike out (12th in the AL in strikeouts per plate appearance.)

Throw all of that together, and the Twins are one of the most likely teams in the AL to put the ball in play with runners on base - and they're also third in the league in hitting grounders. For every fly ball, the Twins pound 0.88 balls into the ground. (Line drives are counted as fly balls.)

Maybe it's not shocking, but it does make sense: the Twins just have a lot of guys on first, and they tend to put the ball in play on the ground. Put the two together, and that's a whole bunch of double plays.

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Well, it's good to see that the stats really do support the third theory.

I’ve been saying it for awhile, but eventually you start to lose faith in such things and hope someone starts digging for hex bags in the batter’s box.

http://www.realityfish.com

by Robin G on May 31, 2010 9:25 AM EDT reply actions

Joe Morgan had a good insight (!) during last night's broadcast

With Mauer, he’s always taking the ball right up the middle, and if you don’t punch it through, you’re almost always going to be doubled up.

And teams seem to have figured out with Mauer that you really have to make sure no ball goes over the 2nd base bag for a hit. I think most have some sort of small shift going on.

by Luke in MN on May 31, 2010 9:28 AM EDT reply actions

Stopped clocks, I suppose.

http://www.realityfish.com

by Robin G on May 31, 2010 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions

This is total BS.

If Mauer had an approach wanting to HIT A GROUNDBALL WHEN THERE’S A RUNNER ON 1ST FREAKING BASE there might actually be some legs to this thing. But since he just trying to hit the ball hard in the form of a line drive, I’m rather hesitant to credit Morgan with an insight here.

There is no logical explanation for him hitting into so many DPs. He is a hitter who has made an out 60% of the time. Some happen to be groundouts with a guy on 1st base.

by TMW on May 31, 2010 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't understand why you think it's total b.s.

Mauer hits the ball up the middle a lot. Groundballs up the middle are more likely to become double plays than groundballs that are hit towards the other holes. This doesn’t really seem like a leap to say that it might have something to do with it. It isn’t about what he’s trying to do, it’s just what he does, whether someone is on first base or not.

The main reasons why Mauer hit’s into as many double plays as he does are the fact that he has two good singles and walks hitters in front of him, that are constantly on first, and he almost always puts the ball in play. But I’m not going to say that him hitting it up the middle has NOTHING to do with it, it certainly could play a hand in it.

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on May 31, 2010 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Maybe not total BS

Ellingson has a good point about Mauer generally hitting the ball up the middle more often than he hits it down the lines (though I haven’t seen any evidence that an up the middle grounder is any easier to turn two on than one hit in the hole either to short or second — if anything, naive intuition would say it’s harder to get the DP on an up the middle play, because you’re more likely to find yourself in a bad position to make a throw to the guy covering second).

I also think it is possible for a hitter to have an approach that’s different from his normal approach in certain situations, and for that to show up in the stats. Case in point — Delmon Young has been a pretty consistent ground-ball hitter in his time with the Twins, and though he’s hitting a higher line drive percentage so far this year, he’s still mainly hittng grounders. Yet Young leads the entire AL in sac flies with five.

You could argue small sample size, and with something like sac flies there will always be sample size issues since the event isn’t nearly as common as doubles or homers. You could say it’s an anomaly, and he won’t still be among the league leaders by the time the season is over, and I’m not sure how hard I’d argue against you.

All I know is that if you asked me to identify the guy leading the AL in sac flies, and I hadn’t already looked it up, I don’t think I’d name Young in my first twenty guesses.

by dwintheiser on Jun 1, 2010 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Option 3: Getting on base=more DP opportunities

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 31, 2010 9:32 AM EDT reply actions

Yes, the most maligned DP hitter of all is Cuddy, and he's not even in the top 10

when you look at DP/chances. He is just always hitting with someone on first.

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on May 31, 2010 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Option 4: Hot Hand Fallacy (or opposite of)

In 2008 when the Twins’ numbers with RISP was through the roof especially considering the lack of depth in that lineup (Cuddyer was hurt and awful, Kubel just couldn’t get it together, Casilla was hitting 2nd, etc.) there were tons of theories going around as to ‘why the Twins are this good at hitting with RISP’ when blogs of rival teams kept saying throughout the year ’they’ll eventually cool it off’. They were a little bit right, as we remember in Game 163, but for the season the numbers were amazing giving the lineup.

Now the opposite is happening, the Twins are way underperforming with RISP given a substantially better lineup. But when things go bad, people NEED answers. No Twins fan really cared about the Hot Hand Fallacy in 2008 because things were going well. But the same rule applies.

There are a number of books and articles that explain the Hot Hand Fallacy better than I ever could. But the long and short of it is that even 2 months is a very small sample size. A season is also a relatively small sample size. We are seeing a small sample size give an illusion of pattern that does not actually exist.

by TMW on May 31, 2010 10:26 AM EDT reply actions

Yes. that, plus option 3. Getting on base a lot obviously adds to it.

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on May 31, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Ya know

Part of me is still kind of hoping that Cuddles sets the all time record for GIDP and the Twins still score a gazillion runs and Cuddyer has a decent season. It would just make me happy, at least in part because it might force people to think about GIDP RATE, as opposed to total.. And anything that forces people to get past just counting things and start thinking about them, I like.

by Patrick42 on May 31, 2010 11:05 AM EDT reply actions

Mauer and Cuddy are flailing at junk

Cuddyer is back to waving a garden rake (loopy loose swing), and Mauer is chopping down at balls that look like they’re gonna hit him in the ankle. Result: Cuddy’s hitting dp grounders to short, and Joe’s hitting dp grounders to second. With tons of guys (ie: Span and Hudson) on first, that adds up to a boat load of double plays.

Both these guys are great hitters over the course of a year, but right now they’re both making mistakes at the plate. Cuddy needs to get his tight snap back, and Mauer needs to lay off the inside and low junk. Nothing terribly complicated.

by jimbo55403 on May 31, 2010 11:18 AM EDT reply actions

Option 3 + Option 5

Aka, not many stolen bases. Twins are in the bottom of the pack for stolen bases, with about half as many as the leaders. They seemed to do a little more running during the latest series, but I think we need to give our speed guys more leeway to steal in double play situations, even with Mauer at the plate. Even getting thrown out at second from time to time is well worth it if it means less GIDP.

by TheIntern on May 31, 2010 12:07 PM EDT reply actions

I don't think its #2

Young doubled up Span at 2nd pretty easily last night on an atypical 5-4 DP.

by DavidRF on May 31, 2010 12:59 PM EDT reply actions

Option 6 - Historical

Unless I am reading it wrong, Twins have the most ground into double plays since 1990! 20 years. It appears they have over 200 more GDIP then anyone else over that same period.

So either I’m an idiot and can’t figure out the historical stats, or its an institutional problem that has not been addressed in 20 years

by clutterheart on May 31, 2010 1:16 PM EDT reply actions