Sunday Morning Baseball & Breakfast: Mike Lowell Rumors, Joe Mauer's "Cold" Streak, and Your Days Are Numbered?
by Jesse on Jun 13, 2010 10:09 AM EDT
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PrintDoes anybody want Mike Lowell? Anybody? Bueller?
Kind of like the useless rumors of the Mariners sending Jose Lopez to the Twins, or the maddeningly recurring rumors of Jarod Washburn signing with the Twins, for some reason somebody thinks that Lowell would have a purpose on Minnesota's 25-man roster.
While the Twins front office, and correctly so, has questions about Lowell's health and ability to play defense (even more so considering his ridiculous salary), apparently the field staff has rallied in their support of him. And it's not only the Twins, but apparently the Rangers, White Sox and Mariners have "expressed interest".
I'm sorry, but does this strike anyone besides me as obscene? Let's point out a few reasons why anybody choosing to deal for Lowell might be insane, and a few reasons why the Twins, specifically, should stay away.
- Mike Lowell is 36.
- His 2010 salary is $12 million, which means that any team picking him up would have to try and get Boston to eat the pro-rated portion of his remaining contract. Right now that's somewhere between $7 and $8 million dollars.
- He can't stay healthy.
- As a result of #3, the Red Sox have given Lowell just 32 innings at third base this season (over four games). He's also recorded 31.2 innings at first base.
- Lowell is batting .227/.326/.373 in just 75 at-bats.
- The Twins already have a pair of designated hitters in Jason Kubel and Jim Thome.
- The Twins already have one player who can't play any defensive position in The Gentleman. Sure, Lowell isn't positionless, but he's the next best thing. Let's not restrict our bench options any further.
- The reason the Twins didn't re-sign Joe Crede was because he wasn't a guarantee to stay healthy. Additionally, a lot of people have already expressed their displeasure with what appears to be a trend with the Twins: injured guys who take up a roster spot without hitting the disabled list. For both of these reasons, there is no plausible explanation for wanting to acquire Mike Lowell.
- If the Twins want Lowell and magically get Boston to pick up the tab, we'd still have to give them something. And anything is too much.
Most recently, Buster Olney has said there isn't a real active trade market for Lowell. Thank the baseball gods for that. I can't wat for this to end.
Mauer's "Cold" Streak?
It's something to say when a guy is batting .318/.396/.453 and it's considered a "down" time. But it's true for Joe.
Since May 18, Mauer is hitting .264/.354/.368. That's a period of 23 games and 99 plate appearances. In this stretch he's still picked up nine doubles, and the walk-to-strikeout ratio is still good at 12-to-9...but this isn't the typical Baby Jesus we've come to know and worship love.
None of this is to say we should be worried. Everyone hits cold streaks, and he'll ride another hot streak eventually, but it's worth pointing out. Because, having said that, in those 23 games Mauer reached base in 20 of his 22 starts.
Your Days are Numbered?
There are changes on the way. Of course, a lot of that will be over the next eight days as both Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy come off of the disabled list, which is when things should get interesting.
Hudson - As he comes off this week, it's likely that Trevor Plouffe's second stint with the Twins will come to an end. This will leave Minnesota's infield as: Morneau, Hudson, Punto, Valencia, Tolbert and Harris.
Hardy - When he returns next week, the smart money would be on either Tolbert or Valencia to get sent back to Rochester. But consider this:
- Brendan Harris, prior to his appearance last night, hadn't played in a week.
- Matt Tolbert can play every position that Harris can play.
- Danny Valencia is actually a third baseman.
There are two questions a team has to ask when making a major move: what's best for now, and what's best for the future? Right now, the answers to those questions are the same. Maybe the Twins start by sending down Tolbert and keeping Harris on the bench, but at some point Harris needs to prove that he can play, and play better than his numbers right now.
Along the same lines as Harris, there has to be a tight leash on a couple of relief pitchers. None tighter than Jesse Crain's.
It might be next week, and it might be next month, but Pat Neshek will eventually work his way back into the Major League bullpen. Additionally, pitchers like Anthony Slama, Rob Delaney and Jeff Manship are knocking on the door.
What's frustrating the most about Crain is that he'll pitch well for a week and a half, and then blow up. Most recently, Crain has allowed five runs in two appearances after a streak of eight appearances without allowing an earned run. How long can a $2 million dollar reliever pitch inconsistently for, before he's taken out of any kind of a leverage situation? And if a $2 million dollar reliever can't be trusted to pitch in big game situations, then what?
His peripherals aren't bad. He's still striking hitters out, and his velocity is fine. But at some point he has to stop allowing crooked numbers in streaks.
That's all I'll say for now. It's too early in the day to get frustrated. I'll see you for the game!
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Hudson
Post-game last night, both Hudson and Gardy said that he’ll be back on Tuesday.
by RandBall's Stu on Jun 13, 2010 10:22 AM EDT reply actions
Harris for Lowell. Kill two stones with one other big stone.
That way when Lowell gets injured for the rest of the year, the Twins will have to keep Valenica up all year. Perfect plan.
"I couldn't do that. Could you do that? Why can they do it? Who are those guys?"
For What Its Worth
in the comments at mlbtraderumors.com someone quotes someone else (lol) saying Harris and mid level prospect for Lowell and cash. Depending on the amount fo cash, that may make sense.
by That'sWhatSheSaid on Jun 13, 2010 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
good talking points
I asked the same question not long ago about Lowell and I feel the consensus is if we passed up on Crede, there’s no reason why we would want Lowell, right-handed though he may be.
Mauer: Nice writing. Does anyone else suspect that he’s still injured?
Demotions: Tolbert’s first to go, no question. But would Harris and Crain get picked up if demoted? I feel Harris could slip through, but my guess is someone will put a claim on Crain.
Harris could go and not be missed. I always wondered why the Twins kept Harris, Casilla and Punto. Punto was under contract and Casilla is young and at least brings a little speed to the table. Punto and Casilla can play the positions that Harris plays. It’s June so you don’t gain anything by sending Valencia out(I think that’s right.) Let him play and get an idea about whether he’s the 3rd baseman of the future. He can’t possibly hit worse than who’s there now. Crain is still fairly young and has a plus arm. I would like to see him used in mop up innings and see if he gets straightened out.
Punto, Harris and Casilla
Felt the Twins ahd no faith in Casilla, although he could still be the second baseman of the near future.
Harris was a ncie signing when it happened. He would repalce Punto in 2011. But, sadly, he can’t replace Punto in 2010. But, now, who wants him for the remainder of his contract? The Twins would eat it all but the major elague minimum.
Mahay pitched Sunday and gave up four outs (one a double play) and three hits. His ERA went down. Crain did crap, and Duensing saved his ass.
We have to mention Kyle Waldrop in the picture, too. Mayeb even ANthony Swarzak who sould think beyond the starters box. Happily, Duensing is seeing that he might have a career as a lefty reliever, forget starting…being in the majors is better than complaining about your role and staying in the minors.
Can someone repalce Butera? If it ain’t Morales (who needs some major league time to bring his value abck up as tradebait), then bring up Ramos. A no-hit catcher doesn’t cut it.
Can the Twins survive and trade Pavano, Rauch before the end of July? Can someone else step up as closer? Do they have a fifth starter in the wings?
Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!
Why trade Pavano and Rauch?
Each of them is providing more value than their contract. They’re both free agents at the end of the year. You typically add guys like that at the deadline, not subtract.
Oh.....
And you play Valencia everyday that he is up ehre…agaisnt righties and lefties. See if he can hold down the fort. Make Punto the super utility guy. He’ll get his at-bats.
Plouffe is overmatched, even in the field. He sees what big league ball is like and needs to work on quite a few things if he wishes to be a starter.
Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!
Mike Lowell is more insane than what we're running out there now?
First of all, let’s not pretend that not re-signing Crede has been proven to be some kind of genius move. Even if Crede had gotten injured, that would just set us all the way back to exactly where we are now—trotting out a sub-replacement parade of gawdawful at 3rd. So whatever the logic was in not signing Crede, it’s null and void by the fact that ANYTHING would be better than what we’ve gotten at 3rd base this year. By the not-signing-Crede-was-brilliant theory, getting Hudson and Hardy was also a big mistake since they’ve proven fragile and prone to sitting, non-DLed, as dead weight on the bench.
I also don’t see how the fact that the Twins have mismanaged the disabled list so far should stop us from getting better personnel to mismanage.
Mike Lowell’s 36. I’m not advocating giving him a 3-year extension. He only needs to be good (check that: he doesn’t need to be good, he only needs to be NOT TERRIBLE) for the rest of the year. His 3-year numbers are 299/354/481. Do I need to dig up the combined 3-year numbers for Harris and Punto (and MLB equivalents for Valencia) or can we just concede they’re about as different from that as possible?
Boston isn’t not playing Lowell because he’s always injured. They’re not playing him because he doesn’t have a spot on the team. The Twins wouldn’t have this problem. Beltre and Youkilis are wildly better reasons for not playing Lowell than anything the Twins can put at 3rd.
Boston is essentially paying Lowell to not play and hurt their roster flexibility. They don’t need a basket of studs to convince them to stop doing this. They’ll pick up a large chunk of his salary. Like the Twins and Harris, losing Lowell would be addition by subtraction for Boston.
I’m not killing Punto here. He’d get plenty of playing time as a sub, spelling Lowell and the other infielders and filling in on Blackburn days. I am killing Harris, who’s had all the chances we can afford to give him. I also don’t think it’s reasonable to expect that much from Valencia this year. Put him in if Lowell goes down. Otherwise, let’s stop pretending he’s The Long-Awaited Answer at Third Base.
With a competent MLB 3rd baseman sitting essentially unwanted by Boston, I can’t believe the Twins aren’t making every reasonable effort to take advantage and plug the gaping hole through which their 2010 hopes and dreams are currently spewing.
Harris is terrible, and so is Lowell.
If you can swap them for each other, go for it. Otherwise, you’re just trading cutting dead weight in order to trade for dead weight.
And I’m not saying that not re-signing Crede was a genius move, but it had logic to it. The Twins played with a 3-man bench for most of last season because he was too hurt to play, but not hurt enough to go on the DL…whatever that means. Lowell, at this point, is a health risk. If the front office doesn’t want to do one, it probably shouldn’t do the other.
As for the Hardy and Hudson comparison, that’s kind of out of left field—neither of these guys have the injury history of Crede.
Why throw away resources for a guy like Lowell? There’s zero reason for it. If you want to use resources for a trade, pick somebody who can provide some value.
I understand your reasoning for most of what you’re saying here, but you’re picking the wrong target. By trading for Mike Lowell you’re essentially asking for a miracle. Two of them, actually. 1: For him to play better than who we have now, which would require him to play better than he has this season. 2: For him to stay healthy.
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