Go get Cliff Lee - now
by BD57 on Jun 27, 2010 4:56 PM EDT
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PrintBaker 4.61 (and climbing); Slowey 4.79; Blackburn 6.10
If we heard it once, we heard it 1,000 times - the Twins' off-season goal was to build a team which could go deep in the playoffs. Add "O Dog" - upgrade; add Hardy - upgrade; add Thome - upgrade; bring back Pavano - upgrade; bring back Rauch - upgrade (for the role we targeted him for, not for closer) ....
June is almost over.
There is good news - Delmon Young is contributing big time; Alex Burnett has been a pleasant surprise; Frankie has come back; Pavano is pitching like a "Game 1" starter; Guerrier & Duensing are doing their jobs whenever they get the ball; Nick Punto's bat has been better than many of us feared ....
There is bad news - Hardy's spent most of the year on the DL and hasn't done much when he's played and we're leading the world in GIDP.
And then there's the horrid news - the starting rotation is doing a poor man's version of "Spahn & Sain & pray for rain" ("poor man" because, as good as they've been in general and especially at times, Pavano & Frankie ain't Spahn & Sain).
The absence of three "Playoff caliber" starting pitchers (without more) prevents this from being a "go deep in the playoffs" team.
If the goal for 2010 remains the same, then the Twins need to go get a "Game 1" guy. In 2010, his name is "Cliff Lee."
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I think this is way overblown
Twins are 2nd in the AL in run prevention. Would I like Cliff Lee? Of course, he’s an upgrade over everybody. But Baker/Slowey/Blackburn are all better than this. It’s a couple of bad starts in a row for them. They’ll pitch better or be replaced by someone like Duensing who will also pitch better.
What's overblown a few bad starts?
I think you had better rethink your statement. We had a hot start but since then we have not even played .500 ball. The hot start is the only thing that has kept us in 1st place. Which may not be the case a couple of days from now. We have way to much inconsistency. Pitching is where we need help. I look at our everyday lineup player for player against the Tigers & the Sox & I would pick our guys everytime. Detriot’s defense is one of the worst while ours is one of the best. Yet we are 1/2 game up as I’m writing this. The Sox have won 11 of 12 & are right there also. If we had played even .550 ball since our hot start we would be 6-7 games up easy. This is not a bad 2 weeks this a bad 7 weeks.
law of averages
everyone goes through streaks. Your logic is take out our hot start, and we’re a bad baseball team. I say take out interleague, and we’re a great team.
It evens out over the course of the year. We’re somewhere in between the two.
We were 15-8 at the end of April
Now we are 41 and 34 as we near the end of June. We have been a .500 team for basically the last two months (the Twins were also a .500 team until the last 3 weeks last year). My concern is that Gardenhire’s practice of resting a lot of starters in the third game of a series is costing us way too many games.
Gardenhire insists on playing Punto and Cuddyer every game, and we all know what a generally unproductive hitter Punto is. As for Cuddy, he hasn’t hit a ball hard since April (I’m exaggerating but only slightly). This means that when Kubel, Mauer, or Morneau need a day off, the lineup is extremely feeble and scoring basically 0-2 runs a game. And that is a big reason why the Twins lose so often on “getaway day.”
I think fans need to stop being alarmist
It’s not a bad 7 weeks, it was a bad week.
Baker threw an 8 inning shutout and struck out 12 against the Rockies…where were the people that wanted us to replace him in the rotation then?
Blackburn was almost pitcher of the month in May…where were the people who wanted to replace him in the rotation then?
They all should be pitching better, but they’ve all proven in the past that they can and will pitch better going forward. Getting Lee would be awesome and would help tremendously but what if the Twins are simply outbid by another team? This team can and should still win the division as presently constructed.
Do you really think the White Sox will continue playing .900 ball the rest of the year? They weren’t as bad as they looked to start the season, but obviously they are not as good as they’ve looked recently.
"small sample size"
Perfect example of cherry-picking the record, IMO.
Yes, Baker had a great start against the Rockies ….with which his ERA for June is 6.07. He’s given up 4 or more runs in 8 of his 16 starts this year. And his ERA is now 4.97.
As good as Blackburn was in may, he’s given up 5 or more runs in 7 of his 14 starts.
Slowey comes closest to being “consistent” – he’s given up 4 or more in 5 of his starts (lasting a total of 12.1 innings in his last three starts, though …. ugh).
The point being – teams that “go deep in the playoffs” don’t run out a 3rd starter with this sort of output … at least, not unless they have two absolute studs pitching games #1 & #2.
Well what should we do then
Call the Mariners and make a panic trade because our starters have had some bad starts? I agree that Lee is a priority and it would be awesome to get him, but this probably needs some time to play out. The Mariners aren’t going to just give him away, there are plenty of suitors, and the Twins are smart enough not to overpay either.
And yeah, as for your “small sample size” snark, I picked a good start off the top of my head, but did you know that Baker’s K/BB ratio is 83/19 for the season, even after today, a 4.3 command ratio? That’s one of the best in baseball. His xFIP is 3.85. His ERA will come down. He’s obviously vulnerable to HRs, but that will even out over the year as well. 3 HRs is bad, but he still struck out 6 and walked 0. More often than not, that will add up to a quality start.
Baker is what he is: a solid mid-rotation starter, certainly better than most 3rd starters in the league. You have to ride the ups and downs sometimes. Not every start is going to be sparkling.
by matswilander on Jun 27, 2010 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course not "panic trade"
The basic scenario doesn’t call for a “panic trade.”
The Mariners got Lee to make a run. That’s obviously not going to happen, which is why there’s talk of them shipping him out in the first place.
The Twins set up their roster this year to make a run – which is why “get Lee” is even a subject of conversation.
My point is this:
If “make a run” is still the target, then “get Lee” is a priority because our playoff rotation without someone like him isn’t competitive.
Just to be clear – “Without overpaying” is presumed.
you said get Cliff Lee now
I submit that the only way to get him now, as opposed to a month from now, is to overpay. Especially if the Mariners sense that we are desperate. Otherwise, the market for him has to play out.
Twins fans need to face facts: they may not have the pieces to make the best offer for Lee. I hope they do but it might not happen.
by matswilander on Jun 27, 2010 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions
We have better pieces than anyone else in the running
with the possible exception of Texas, but I don’t think they can afford his salary
"Baseball is the only major sport that appears backward in a mirror" ~George Carlin
by thewild_viking_twins on Jun 27, 2010 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions
touche ....
I’ll revise, then ….
“Go get Cliff Lee as soon as you reasonably can …. because this rotation ain’t going ‘deep in the playoffs.’ "
doesn’t make a good headline, though.
Not a panic trade
Just do it IMMEDIATELY at WHATEVER COST!!!
I make myself laugh sometimes.
by That'sWhatSheSaid on Jun 28, 2010 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
It's too early to be an alarmist.
I guess I’m just pissed because we had a great start & followed it up with mediocre ball. Were we not 12 games over .500 at one point. I know that it’s a marathon not a sprint. I just think that we are the class of the division & it sucks when we don’t play like it. Why does Cliff Lee have to be a rental. Yes he will demand top dollar. So pay him. Did you know that the Pohlads are one of the richest families in the whole country. Lets Lets lock him up for five years. The guys one of the best in the game & he is in his prime. Lee with a decent staff along with our lineup will keep us in the hunt for years to come. This doesn’t have to be a all or nothing season.
you're signing Lee?
Ok, that means you’re trading away Nathan, or Cuddyer, or Morneau. Teams have budgets, and just because the owners are rich doesn’t mean they should be expected to take a loss.
It would be POSSIBLE to operate with a net income after signing Lee, but very difficult.
And even with those 3 guys struggling
Our pitching overall has been very good. We need to start scoring more runs and I think we will. And our defense will improve when Hardy returns.
The great thing about this team
Is that we don’t need to have multiple aces. As long as the offense does its job, a good start is often enough. Add to that our fantastic bullpen.
by MarshalltheIrish on Jun 27, 2010 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions
As a White Sox fan.
I can only hope that Twin management shares some of your views and waits to pick up Lee in a month. Truthfully the they need to pick up Lee now. With the team’s immediate schedules in a month you might find yourselves 3 behind with the White Sox looking to deal at the same time for a left handed bat. There was certainly a time to have an arrogant cockiness (hell I envied it), that time is over.
"Officially off strike...."
Thanks for telling us what the Twins need
so I’ll tell you what the White Sox need: upgrades at about 5 positions, a better leadoff hitter than Juan Pierre, a better 3B than Omar Vizquel, and Jim Thome, but oh wait, he’s on our team.
Seriously, the White Sox just aren’t that good.
by matswilander on Jun 27, 2010 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions
dude I have seen your smart ass remarks in other threads
and I have to tell you, its brilliant analysis. Upgrade at 5 positions? lol. The White Sox are just not that good. If you say. They have the best rotation and bullpen in the division. They rank 1st in the AL in FIP and xFIP. Obviously the hole is the need for another bat something they will probably trade for. The twins have the bats and the rotation is not bad, but it honestly pitched over its head earlier. The immediate schedule is very favorable to the White Sox. My original point still stands.
Are the White Sox 15 of 17 good. Of course not, but they don’t have to be.
"Officially off strike...."
xFIP
White Sox: 4.06
Twins: 4.19
What a huge difference!
by matswilander on Jun 27, 2010 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Surely your not serious right
You do understand the difference between trends? Aggregate numbers only tell one story.
"Officially off strike...."
You're the one who cited xFIP
Tell me the whole story then if you think you’re so smart. If anything, the Twins are due for a correction in their favor since Baker and Slowey especially have been unlucky.
Seriously, White Sox fans, I hope you enjoyed your completely unfair interleague schedule where you drew teams with a collective .420 winning percentage. I don’t remember the Twins playing the Pirates or Nationals.
by matswilander on Jun 27, 2010 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions
You played Milwaukee.
And the White Sox did draw Strasburg in the Washington series. Were the schedules unequal? Of course. So what. It doesn’t change the facts. As for the Cubs, the stadiums are usually half and half and the historical series is a difference of about 3-4 games. Regardless of record always tough games. They swept Atlanta and won 2 of 3 vs Detroit.
"Officially off strike...."
at least we both play Detroit an equal number of times
I think the Brewers esp. now are way better than the Cubs, but whatever. They did beat Strasburg so good for them.
So what, it doesn’t change the facts? How about there’s no way in hell the Sox rode an 11 game winning streak if they had to visit the Phillies and the Mets instead of the Pirates and the Nats. That’s a fact.
by matswilander on Jun 27, 2010 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Teams rarely win 11 in row period
regardless of the competition. They rarely win 8 out of 9 on the road or 15 out of 17 overall.
"Officially off strike...."
forget the 11 in a row thing
if you substitute the Phillies and Mets for the Nats and Pirates on the road portion of your interleague play, the White Sox interleague record is probably something like 12-6 or 11-7, not 15-3.
by matswilander on Jun 27, 2010 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't see your point
You can’t take away the games. The White Sox are still 1.5 games out. I have no idea if they would have won but I know a hot Atlanta team was playing better than both Philly and New York.
"Officially off strike...."
my point is
you were lucky to draw such an easy schedule to pull this close to begin with. It won’t be so easy to keep surging ahead for the rest of the season.
by matswilander on Jun 27, 2010 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions
well yeah i have to sorta agree here
Twins have faced
Zach Grienke
Felix Hernandez
Doc Halladay
Yovani Gallardo
Johan Santana
in each of their last 5 or so series…
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jun 27, 2010 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Not that I like this stupid argument above ur comment but . . .
you forgot Ubaldo!!
The Sox aren’t as good as they’ve been playing lately and the Twins aren’t as bad as they’ve been playing. Teams will have hot and cold streaks. I’m not about to start arguing about how the last two weeks make one team better than the other. Here’s what we do know though. The White Sox have one helluva rotation that scared me before the season and now it’s really starting to click. That said, I still believe the Twins are better overall on paper. Their starters will turn it around.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
He said the Sox would need a LH bat
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
immediate schedule:
6 vs KC, 3 vs Tex, 4 vs LAA
Twins have 6 vs Det, 4 vs TB, 3 vs Tor
Not that huge a difference outside of the KC games, but you will face Greinke.
Then we play you for 4 out of the ASB.
The White Sox did need to be 15 out of 17 good to even get back into contention after their horrible start.
Your offense sucks. Pythagorean standings (see b-r) say you’re plus 3 in wins, Twins are -1.
Of course Pythagorean has them behind.
They had A LOT to make up for being so bad early in the season. The offense experienced ridiculous BABIP early in the season and certainly is not as bas as that. The Sox need an avg offense. Its how they always planned to win. The defense is much improved. As much as you joke about Omar, bet you would love to have his glove at third right now. The steady improving BP pecota odds and ELO odds bear that out. What happened in the past is over. The lead is gone.
"Officially off strike...."
it's not like the Twins' haven't had bad luck themselves
The Twins would love to have Vizquel’s bat at 3B???? His name is Nick Punto. And we haven’t even had Hardy healthy for the last 1.5 months, he made our defense way better.
Seriously, keep kidding yourselves, but the Twins are a better team.
I think I said glove?
Kid myself about what? I never said the White Sox were a better team. You’re the only one making outlandish statements acting as if the standings are not what they are. I read this site on a regular basis and I don’t any knowledgeable twin fan is sticking their fingers in their ears and saying “it will all go away the white sox are not that good.” Get real. At this point the division is up fro grabs. Its chess now and all about moves. Could the Twins have enough? Possibly? You WANT to take that chance? Be my guest.
"Officially off strike...."
I meant glove
What, did you expect a parade?
I am not blind to the fact that Lee would be an upgrade, but I am also not blind to the fact that their pitching really is not this bad, and a panic trade right now isn’t the right thing to do. Knowledgeable Twins fans also know what they’re getting with a guy like Scott Baker, for example, who even though he got roughed up the last 2 starts still struck out 13 and walked 0 in those starts? Sound familiar? Kind of like how Peavy was getting pounded but still showing good skills? I’m sure you weren’t one of those panicking White Sox fans who were bemoaning the Peavy trade, right?
I’d love to get Lee but the 4 extra starts he’d make if we acquired him now versus if we acquired him at the end of July is not worth it if they need to completely overpay for his services.
Of course the White Sox don’t stink, anyone could tell they were really underperforming the first few months of the season, their pitching is very good and they do represent a real threat to win the division, moreso than the Tigers I think, but I just don’t think they have enough offense.
by matswilander on Jun 27, 2010 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I certainly did say Peavy had the skills
I pointed out in May when his k/bb ratio was 8/1 to stop looking at his ERA because his season would turn around. My point is Seattle seems willing to deal him. There is no guarantee the price comes down later. Hell the Mets might want him more or even a 3rd team if an injury happens. You can pawn it off as “white sox” optimism but I think as is, the Sox are probably in 1st at the all star break and ahead a few games by the trade deadline. The Twins trading for Lee or others (and a return of Hardy)obviously changes that. The White Sox schedule is brutal in late August and Sept, they have to make their move right now. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them make a trade in the next 2-3 weeks, especially Beckham doesn’t turn around.
Honestly I’m not that worried about Detroit.
"Officially off strike...."
Fine, even if the White Sox are going to be in 1st by the all star break
The goal isn’t to be in 1st at the all star break.
Seattle seems willing to deal him, but I bet they are only willing to deal him now if they are completely blown away by an offer. Otherwise, why wouldn’t they wait longer to see if they can get a better offer?
No matter what people might think about the win now mentality, it’s just not a good idea to sacrifice so much of any team’s future for an extra couple of starts by an elite pitcher in July. I’d love to do it, don’t get me wrong, I just don’t think it’s time to hit the panic button right now because of a few bad starts by some guys who have pretty decent track records.
Just like you were so certain that Peavy would turn it around, I am especially certain that Baker is going to turn it around (not saying that Baker is better than Peavy).
And you can pawn it off as Twins optimism if you like, but I feel fairly confident that this team as presently constructed (with a few minor moves here and there, maybe an extra reliever or infielder) can and should win this division, even without a major acquisition at SP.
by matswilander on Jun 27, 2010 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions
with or without Lee
I bet they make some kind of trade for at least one SP (maybe someone like Lilly as a consolation prize).
by matswilander on Jun 27, 2010 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Calm down man
You don’t have to personally defend the Twins. They’ve played like crap lately, and the White Sox have played extremely well. Having said that, the opposite was true in April, and both teams are going to have ups and downs over the course of a 162 game schedule. The season isn’t even half over yet. No need to have heated arguments about who is better. Time will tell.
Your'e right Sheldon.
Both teams have shined, ours was early on. Lets see how things sit by mid sept. Ozzie has a few more meltdowns left in him. So you Sox fans have that to look forward to. At least our coach doesn’t embarrass himself every couple of months on national television.
sorry about that
got started and couldn’t stop, won’t happen again.
by matswilander on Jun 28, 2010 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions
WE NEED LEE
Trade Ramos! Trade Morneau! Give them all the rest of our pitchers! If we have Lee we’ll be GUARANTEED to make the playoffs and win the world series so why do we still have minor league prospects? Trade! Trade! Who cares if Lee would only be on the team a couple months get him now! Worry about making smart moves later…
"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez
Seeing as we made all the necessary moves to become a contender in the offseason
Why not pursue this one? I’ll flip a bitch if we fail to pull the trigger and he goes elsewhere, especially the Mets (with Pelfrey and Dickey, they DO NOT need him as much as we do). Not only do the Twins clearly stand to benefit the most from acquiring him, but they have all the pieces to move and wouldn’t really be sacrificing much (Ramos is 100% expendable not just because of the stability of Mauer, but we also have Morales and Butera). As has been established well before, the “grow the prospects” obsession hasn’t gotten us over the hump yet, and it shouldn’t compromise a deal as huge as this. We’ve given out contracts to the likes of Mike Lamb for f***’s sake…half a season (and hopefully the playoffs) with the most coveted pitcher in the game is a nothing-to-lose situation, in my opinion. We won’t mortgage our future by getting him.
And if he DOES come…our pitching staff (non-moustachioed) needs to turn around entirely to help him.
by MarshalltheIrish on Jun 29, 2010 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Huh?
Your argument that the Mets don’t need Cliff Lee is based on the fact that they have world beater RA Dickey? Dickey is a fluke waiting to turn back into a pumpkin when the clock strikes midnight.
I said
They don’t need him as much as WE do. Right now everyone in the rotation except for Pavano is struggling, with Baker, Slowey, and Blackburn combining for a 7.17 ERA this month. Even if RA Dickey is indeed a fluke, the Mets aren’t nearly in as difficult a situation with their starting rotation as the Twins. It’s evident we stand to gain the most from acquiring Lee. The Mets could certainly make a good case for needing him, just not as much as us, in my opinion. Besides, as I said, they already have Pelfrey.
by MarshalltheIrish on Jun 29, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Ramos is expendable
But does that mean the Twins should just trade him (and other prospects) for a two month rental? No. I personally believe the Twins could use Ramos in a much better deal next off season—something that would help strengthen the team over the next two to three years, not two to three months. Ramos IS expendable—that is exactly why he is so valuable to the Twins. Don’t flush it down the toilet.
And of course Cliff Lee would be great—but he’s not going to guarantee the Twins a championship. It’s not going to solve all the Twins’ problems. I just think these trade proposals for Lee sound extremely imprudent.
"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez
I think you have to win now and we don't have the arms to do it
Just my opinion.
Plus, a rental is not such a bad thing if it brings a couple of high draft picks at the end of the year.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Mejia injured yesterday
That’s a pretty big blow to the Met’s Lee chances.
Luke did you say the Mets blow.
Very sneaky Luke.
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