Trades and DFA
by BCTwins on Jun 3, 2010 12:32 AM EDT
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PrintThe Twins, as of right now, are a really good baseball team. They swept a contending team, Texas, at home in the last series. They have won 2 of 6 games, thanks to Kubel, against the Evil Eastern Empire. However, the Twins, if lucky enough to win the Central Division, still do not have what it takes to beat the Yankees/Tampa Bay in the first round. So, a trade idea and some DFA options after the jump....
- Trades:
The Twins really need an ace pitcher, a true one. Liriano has been doing fine as our "ace", but he still is not up to the level of Sabathia, Beckett, Santana, or Lincecum. The Twins have a solid 1-5 core, but in a playoff series, how often does the 4th or 5th pitcher in your rotation throw? Thus, the Twins need a pitcher who has cemented himself in the ace role. We have discussed Roy Oswalt on this site, and while that remains as a possibility, I find it highly unlikely that the Twins shift a trade for him.
Cliff Lee....
A strike-throwing lefty, a repertoire featuring a four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, cut fastball, curveball, and a circle change. Lee throws his fastball in the 90s, usually clocking out at 94. Lee fits the Twins bill of strike throwing, low walks, control specialist. With Lee's experience in the playoffs, he would be a great asset to this team as the #1 "go-to" guy.
What does Seattle need? Seattle has been having catching problems, with no apparent heir in the prospect list - only Adam Moore, who will have a long career, but a BA in the low .250s, a little pop, and an ability to shut down the running game.
What do the Twins have? Wilson Ramos. Ramos is blocked by Joe Mauer, and unless one or the other changes positions, they will never be on the same team at the same time. Ramos fills the Mariners need: a catcher who can shut down the running game, a guy who can drive in runs and has extra base power.
The only question would be, is this too much talent or talent going to waste for basically a rent player? We could trade Ramos for a really polished 2B, or for a young ace pitcher who is under team control. However, there is the possibility that the Twins might meet Lee's demands for a contract, or they let him go and collect the two draft picks. Its a win-win either way. The Twins get a top ace for three months, possibly more, either sign him to a long term contract or collect two draft picks, and the Mariners get a really good catcher - who is under team control for a few years.
Possible Trade: Ramos straight up for Lee, Ramos/Crain or Delaney for Lee + PTBNL or A ball prospect.
David Wright...
If montanatwinsfan is correct, and not being sarcastic (its really hard to tell with him), this would be an amazing chance to get one of the top 3B in the major leagues. Yes, Valencia would be blocked and probably would end up having to be traded, but the Twins would get an absolutely amazing 3B.
What do the NY Mets need? Honestly, I have no clue, but it seems like they could use a number of things. They could probably use a starting pitcher and some relief pitching. They have Santana, but not much beyond him and they have K-Rod, who is their only consistent reliever.
What do the Twins have? The Twins have Anthony Swarzak, Matt Fox, Jeff Manship, and Glen Perkins (yes, I did just say his name) among the starting pitchers. In the bullpen options, the Twins have Rob Delaney, Jose Lugo, Tim Lahey, Anthony Slama, and Chris Province. The Twins have lots of good young pitchers in their farm system, so they can afford to lose some of their prospects in addition to one of their starters.
Possible Trade: Anthony Swarzak, Rob Delaney, Jesse Crain, Glen Perkins, Alexi Casilla, and Chris Province for David Wright.
- DFA:
Its time the Twins cleared some room on their 40 man roster and gave the young kids a shot in the sun. The Twins have a few dead weights on their current roster.
Ron Mahay - 6.39 ERA (10 runs/9 ER in 12.2 innings pitched.)
Mahay was signed to be another lefty in the pen along with "Cheeseburger Monster" Mijares and "The Invisible Man" Duensing. However, Mahay is not getting the job done and is only still on the roster because Gardy likes the veterans.
Jesse Crain - 5.32 ERA (14 runs/13 ER in 22.0 innings pitched.)
Crain is one of two things: Crainwreck or the Craintrain. There is no median. Crain is either going to be horrendously bad or amazingly good. Unfortunately for Crain, he has been mostly horrendously bad. Its time for Crain to have a change of scenery and most certainly a team will give it to him, possibly Kansas City or Milwaukee or the Cubs.
Brendan Harris - .163 BA (15 hits in 92 ABs), .250 OBP, More strikeouts than hits.
After being signed to a two year contract, that made us all wonder, Harris has...well, sucked! Harris is a mediocre defender and so, he must rely on his bat to carry him through. However, both have failed him. His fielding is still mediocre and his bat, which was decent in years past, has been really bad. Right now, Harris couldn't hit the broadside of a red barn if he stood 2 feet in front of it. If DFA'd, I can't really see a team picking Harris up, unless they are really hard pressed to find a filler 3B/1B (heck, the Marlins have Mike Lamb on their roster right now).
- Replacements for DFA'd:
Danny Valencia - .298 BA, .350 OBP - Replaces Harris
After a rocky start this season, Valencia has finally started to get back into the groove. Not getting any younger, this could possibly be the last year where Valencia could be considered a true prospect and not a minor league HOF'er, as he already is old for AAA. This is Valencia's year to try his hand at Major League success. Bill Smith told several teams last year that Valencia was off limits as he was considered the future 3B; yet, Smith has not given Valencia the chance to prove himself; he could have made Valencia a september call-up last year, but chose not to; he could have had Valencia on the bus ride north from spring training this year, but chose not to. He could have called Valencia up, instead of Luke Hughes, when Punto went down, but chose not to. It is time for Valencia.
Kyle Waldrop - 1.47 ERA (6 ER in 36.2 IP) - Replaces Jesse Crain
Waldrop has had a pretty nice minor league career, but it wasn't until the end of last year and the beginning of this year, that fans started to notice. Waldrop would slide perfectly into the role that Crain would vacate and be much more effective. Waldrop also is a hard throwing right hander, so the mid 90 fastball speed of Crain would not really be lost. Plus, Waldrop hardly walks anybody; he is a control artist with some pretty good pop on his fastball. Waldrop has earned a call-up.
Anthony Slama - 1.80 ERA (6 ER in 30.0 IP) - Replacing Ron Mahay (this years version of Keppel?)
Yes, I know that Slama is not a lefty, but quite frankly, I don't care. Furthermore, the Twins already have two excellent left handers in their pen: Duensing and Mijares. When Slama can slam the door on the opponents, that is all that matters. Yes, Slama has a high walk rate, but he also has a high K rate. Slama has had consistent success at each level in the minors, and it is time for SLAMA!
So, what do you think? Do you think the trades above are realistic and what do you think of the DFA and call-ups?
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How is Wright realistic?
Wright gets payed 14 million next year and 15 the next. It’s going to take us shedding some payroll I would think to deal with that. Not only is money a problem, It takes a lot more to get a top player in the prime of his career. I’m thinking they might want one of our current starters or one of our top prospects in the minors to make this an even deal. How do the Twins shed payroll this offseason?
I think the Lee deal is very realistic. The Twins can afford to lose an upper tier prospect for Lee as you pointed out because they would get 2 first round picks for him in the off season. Again, I have trouble imagining the Twins resigning Lee unless they were to trade someone to shed payroll. Trade Baker who’s at 5 mil? Or maybe Cuddyer if they feel Revere or Tosoni could be ready?
So yah, if the Twins keep this up, I’m sure they’ll at least explore a trade for Lee and it would likely take someone like Ramos to get the job done using Laporta for CC Sabathia as a reference for such a trade it sounds about right for a pitcher of that caliber.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
+1
those suggested trades for Both Wright and Cliff Lee
are quite a ways off IMO
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jun 4, 2010 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions
My guess is that we will
make lots of posts and discuss a ton of possible scenarios and then the Twins will do nothing. And I am not necessarily upset about that. We spent 90 million this year!
I always loved that one.
After last year . . .
. . I’m actually willing to get my hopes up a little bit. After the trades for Rauch and Orlando Cabrera I see the Twins as a team a little more willing to make a move.
The problem and it’s not really a problem is that the Twins don’t have the obvious holes they did last year. Really the only moves they can make to upgrade are big ones. All of our starters are solid, not spectacular but still good starters. The bullpen has done well and has guys in the minors trying to break down the door (Waldrop, Slama, Delaney) as well as Neshek and Condrey possibly coming back this year.
3rd base could be upgraded in a cheaper way than getting someone like David Wright but even there, are we willing to give up Punto’s defense for a better stick? You could argue the merits of both.
The Twins need to show a willingness to give up a top prospect to make a trade for Lee but if there was ever a year to take that risk it’s now.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Cliff Lee and Ramos
From the Twins’ perspective, it would make sense to trade Ramos for Lee because you would be getting an ace pitcher (albeit for 2-3 months) that could give you a chance to make a serious push in the playoffs while giving up a player at a position of surplus. From the Mariners’ perspective, they have to be thinking that they can get a whole lot more for Lee than merely one prospect. Keep in mind that a couple years ago, they were rumored to want Span and a SP for Jerrod Washburn, another rent-a-pitcher who was having a good year but was no Cliff Lee!
Sorry
I don’t think Seattle will trade Cliff Lee to the Twins for anybody. They play us at home last few days of July and first of August and we play them right back in Seattle the last weekend of August. I can see him being traded to San Diego instead because Seattle will not trade to the American League. Roy Oswalt has a much better chance of becoming a Twin.
Why not?
I know the Mariners wanted to compete this year, but they’re already 7 games out, and if they’re out by double-digits in July, as seems likely, it doesn’t matter where they trade Lee if they can get good value for him – trading Lee is basically punting on the season, and since he’s a free agent after the season, it doesn’t matter where they trade him, because he likely won’t be on that team next year when they’re competing again. Yeah, it will sting a bit when they have to play the Twins and go up against their old teammate, but from a big picture standpoint, there’s basically no downside to trading within the league (or even the division) unless they are crazy enough to think that they’re going to compete for a playoff spot after trading their ace for prospects.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
I think they'll have to sink lower to consider it.
There’s still no one in the AL West who looks like much of a world beater, and the Mariners, on paper at least, have a competitive team. The Twins were 7 games out in what, August last year? If I was a Mariners fan, I’d still have a flicker of hope. I mean, look what their starting pitching has done.
look at what their offense has done
oh yeah, nothing.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
scored more than the Twins offense 2 out of the last three days
I’m not saying they haven’t sucked—they have. But I don’t think the division is out of the realm of possibilities when you’re only 7 games out of contention in the beginning of June and you have a team that at least looks competent on paper. Figgins won’t continue to be the worst hitter in MLB. They are now freed up from Griffey, and considering their production so far, they have to have at least a couple places where a shrewd upgrade could make a big difference.
Selling off Lee means running up a white flag to your fans and instantly alienating all but the most die-hard baseball nuts in town. It hurts the wallet and you don’t do it unless you’re truly sunk.
Given the division they're in
I don’t think the Mariners will be sellers. They’ve been very disappointing, but they are only a week away from challenging for the lead. We know that Ichiro will hit and Lee and Hernandez will pitch. The rest of the rotation and the bullpen look pretty good. Kotchman and Figgins are way better than they’ve shown as is Clubhouse Cancer Milton Bradley. I think Seattle can easily win 85 games and that might be enough to win the mild, mild West.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Jun 4, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree it's merely dreaming
But for different reasons than you. One, I think Seattle will probably ask for a lot and some team (not likely the Twins IMO) will take a gamble for the hopes of winning a WS this year. Two, I still think the AL West is mediocre enough for Seattle to get back in the division race.
DFA's
—no problem with Mahay being dfa’d. We don’t really have a garbage inning guy in the bullpen right now. Crains pitched high leverage last 2 times, Burnett should pitch more 7th innings, Duensing’s been our best LHP there, and rightfully Mijares is now above Mahay on the depth chart.
Mahay is the last man out there right now, so get rid of him and bring up a young guy to pitch some major league innings. It’s very possible we can get Mahay to AAA anyway if we want him back in a few months, or guys like him are a dime a dozen at the trade deadline. Use his bullpen spot to develop someone…now!
—Crain’s had 6 straight good outings and 7 straight scoreless ones. I don’t think he’s getting DFA’d. He’s been a different pitcher the last two weeks than he was in April. Time will tell, but it’s almost, dare I say, encouraging, gulp, how well he’s looked lately. If we can use this good spell as a trade chip, do it. Otherwise, he’s staying.
—No, not Harris. Tolbert should be the DFA of the middle infielders who suck.
Free Anthony Slama
(ugh) Tolbert over Harris
Tolbert is fast enough to pinch run and can play average defense at three or more positions. What is Harris good at? Why would the Twins want him on their team?
Also, Mahay’s numbers have been inflated when he was pitching outside his role. He is a LOOGY and nothing more. He shouldn’t be pitching in the ninth inning and he shouldn’t pitch a couple innings in a one-sided game. That said, the Twins already have two lefthanders in the ’pen, so he is a luxury at this point.
However, Duensing is an injury away from being in the starting rotation and then Mahay would again have value.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Jun 4, 2010 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Why would the Twins want (Harris) on their team?
idk, but my comment is based entirely on the fact that Harris has a guaranteed contract for next year, so Tolbert would go before he would. In another thread someone mentioned Tolbert is arb eligible too next year, so that’s another reason he will go first before Harris.
Free Anthony Slama
David Wright
The possible trade scenario for David Wright is basically asking the Mets to take the Twins garbage and give the Twins back one of the better players in baseball. I mean honestly, none of the Twins minor league/major league players mentioned above are ever going to even do anything for the Twins. The Mets would laugh out loud and hang up the phone. It would have to be something more like Gibson, Revere, and maybe Crain or one of the others…and that would be a great deal for the Twins.
They arent
going to do anything for the Twins because they are blocked. Its not a lack of talent (though it appears everybody seems to have given up on Swarzak after everybody being so high on him before). Manship, Swarzak, Crain, Revere/Kubel/Cuddyer would get it done. Especially if we threw Cuddyer or Kubel in there.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
Why would the Mets accept something like that for their best player and one of the best young players in the league? Revere is the only legit prospect of the group, and he’s barely even that. Cuddy has one expensive year on his contract. Kubel would be a good piece for the Mets. Other than that, none of those players are going to get David Wright.
If Ramos was one of the prospects included, then I think the Mets would at least listen. I don’t think they have much in their system for catchers.
But, with everything said it’s unlikely the Mets would think about getting rid of Wright.
Not only that....
but has anyone looked at what kind of money he makes? Good luck.
Agreed
No way the Mets move Wright (they should, but they won’t b/c the GM would lose his job, fan base would revolt even more etc).
But if they were willing to put him on the market, they’d get offers better than the proposed Red Sox offer for Halladay last year. Hicks and Ramos would have to be the starting point but the Twins also wouldn’t do that. For one year of Santana, the Mets gave up two top 60 BA prospects (at the time) and two more players in their minor league top 10. They don’t need to shed payroll so unless they get an incredible deal, there’s no point in moving one of the top 4 3B who has a team friendly contract. (Or to look at in another light, would the Twins give up Mauer for 6 prospects ranked somewhere between 15-30 in some other teams system?)
You also have to think about the fact that we have to pay # 7 and # 33
and if we bring in Wright, we woudl have to PAY him too. I know we are spending more now than before, but we have to remain somewhat finscally responsible.
I always loved that one.
What's the biggest need
an Ace to anchor the staff or an upgrade at 3B?
I think it’s an Ace to match the gm 1 pitcher in the post season ( I know I’m getting waaaaaaaaay ahead of things )
but to be honest I don’t think the Twins will do anything to bring that kind of pitcher to the team as a rental or otherwise.
"You must be the dumbest SOB in the league. Everybody in the stadium knew you were going to get drilled, except you.'' - Jody Davis
It's also worth mentioning
that so far this season, Liriano has pitched better than any other AL pitcher likely to be in the postseason (unless you count Lee, who may be traded to a contender assuming the Mariners give up).
Really, our starting pitching overall has been about as good as anyone’s. Not sure it will stay that way, but we could be much worse off.
is this right?
Seems to me a couple of the Rays (Price, Neiman and Garza) and Yankees (Pettitte and Hughes) have been pitching quite well…
No, it isn't right...
Certainly Liriano has been in the same broad category as the best performing pitchers on other teams, but he isn’t leading by any statistical measure. One big measure he is missing on that an ace delivers is high & effective innings pitched….Even in his good starts Liriano has often gone only 6 innings.
Going by WAR, he's behind only Ricky Romero and Cliff Lee in the AL
By xFIP, only Lee and Brett Anderson are better.
I think it's time the Twins cut their losses.
Omar Vizquel could be available for trade soon. Try to trade Harris or Tolbert for him. I think the White Sox would take Tolbert because he’d be a salary relief. Then let Harris go to another team, since he hasn’t hit well for Minnesota.
The Diamondbacks need relief pitchers. See what you can get for Crain and Condrey. If nothing, release them, and add Slama and Waldrop to the 40-man roster.
Other possible adds to the 40 man roster if both Tolbert and Harris are removed: Dustin Martin, Jason Repko, Jacque Jones, Matt Macri, Brian Dinkleman.
Macri? Good one
He’s never been healthy long enough to put in an entire season. Your solution is Omar Vizquel? He has hit a cumulative .242/.301/.306 over the last 4 years.
Omar Vizquel is a great pickup
Also, Juan Gonzalez is still a free agent – we should grab him to fill the hole in the outfield.
Just to make sure, we are all pretending that it’s 1999, right?
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
I was hoping for Albert Belle or someone else from the Indians late-90s teams.
The Twins already have Jim Thome.
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