Twins Starting Pitching: Where Hoping for Regression Is a Good Thing

by Jesse on Jul 11, 2010 8:00 PM EDT in Quick Hits

DETROIT - JULY 11: Carl Pavano #48 of the Minnesota Twins warms up prior to the start of the game against the Detroit Tigers on July 11 2010 at Comerica Park in Detroit Michigan. The Twins defeated the Tigers 6-3. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)

A quick look at some numbers on a Sunday evening.

Let's not beat around the bush: our starters have been terrible recently, as a whole. Carl Pavano is the exception, and Francisco Liriano was too until his last start, but as a unit it hasn't been the rotation of a competetive ballclub. Personally, I've tried to keep it all in perspective by calling it a bad stretch, with a number of guys underperforming simutaneously.

Improvement doesn't mean these guys need to start throwing like All-Stars. It just means they need to regress to their career norms. Or, maybe more accurately, they need to progress to their career norms. For the main three strugglers, here are their 2010 ERAs and their career ERAs leading up to this season.

Stat	Baker	Slowey	Blackburn

ERA 2010	4.87	4.64	6.40
ERA Career	4.27	4.39	4.14
Difference	+0.60	+0.25	+2.26

ERA isn't perfect for evaluation, but it does point out one important thing: the rate at which the opposition scores. Absolutely there's more to it: strikeouts, balls in play, strand rates, defense, home runs, walks, etc. But it's results that matter in the end.

Going forward, I do expect all three of these guys to start pitching better. Especially for Baker and Slowey, whose peripherals insist they should be better.

That's my optimism for the evening. Enjoy the rest of your Sunday!

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Comments

speaking of pitchers we know and love,

I missed the Twins game today, but am watching Carlos Silva get lit up this evening in LA.

And how about that Santana character. I love how some yokels around here want so much to believe that the Twins are better off without him that they are still saying he is old and stinks. Don’t look now, but Santana is taking a 2.98 era into the second half!

Oh yeah. Nice game Pavano. Its nice to see him not only pitching well, but leading by veteran example.

My life's goal: to force fischean itno using her moderator powers

by montanatwinsfan on Jul 11, 2010 8:48 PM EDT reply actions

He isn't as good as he was with the Twins, but he's still good

Plus, the Mets have blown so many of his games since he arrived there. His record as a Met should be way better than it actually is.

Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD

by Twins33 on Jul 11, 2010 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions

he's still good but

not great, and I wouldn’t want to be on the hook for another 3-4 years of that contract. Yuck.

by matswilander on Jul 11, 2010 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions

National league ERA are always lower

Let see, if you can get by the 3rd and 4th hitter you’ve got it made.

by b1 on Jul 11, 2010 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions

That's why DH's are awesome...

makes the game more competitive. If you can just get thru to the 9th hitter (the pitcher), it’s like you’re getting a free batter.

I'm still a Minnesotan at heart...

by urluckyday on Jul 11, 2010 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions

How does this make the game more "competitive"?

Are AL games closer than NL? Considering fewer overall runs scored, I doubt it. We can make the argument it makes the game more interesting or exciting, but I don’t think it becomes more competitive. Unless you mean in the AL, 1/9 of the at bats are more competitive, then I agree.

by Adam Peterson on Jul 12, 2010 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Hardy + Rauch - $138 million >>>>> Santana

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 11, 2010 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions

we couldn't afford him.

That is a whole different argument than he stinks (and as a response to my post that states he doesn’t yet stink, is also a disingenuous argument).

My life's goal: to force fischean itno using her moderator powers

by montanatwinsfan on Jul 11, 2010 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t think many people think he stinks.

As for “can’t afford him,” even the Yankees wouldn’t want to be stuck with that contract.

by matswilander on Jul 11, 2010 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm sure that not many do.

But ever since he’s left there has been someone (or several someones) on this site who is willing to proclaim his demise every season, or every bad start.

2009 was a down year (and an injury year for him), but according to fangraphs he out played the value of his contract in 2008 and looks to be on pace to at a minimum equal the value of his contract this year. And that’s if he just stays consistent and doesn’t have a better second half (or get injured of course).

He is overpaid for sure, but hell, in my mind they are ALL overpaid. And as for contracts that they don’t want to be stuck with, every team has those. We have Harris and Blackburn right now, and arguably Cuddyer. It happens. I’m sure the Yankees are sweating bullets on Tex’s contract. But just like at the poker table or anywhere else in life, the big players take big risks. Sometimes they get handed their shorts, sometimes they win 27 world championships.

My life's goal: to force fischean itno using her moderator powers

by montanatwinsfan on Jul 12, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Jilted lovers. thats all!

by b1 on Jul 12, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't think he stinks, of course

But he isn’t the ace he was when he was winning Cy Youngs either. He’s getting paid like that ace, but there are at least 18 starters I’d rather have than him.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 11, 2010 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions

objectively, in a vacuum? or compared to the salary?

I can’t think of 18 starters who are objectively better than Johan Santana, and I bet you can’t either.

As to value, or when comparing production vs. salary? Sure. I suppose there are at least 18 starters who might have more value/dollar. But then I hope to see the consistency in your next post about how there are 3 or 4 catchers you’d rather have than Joe Mauer, well maybe not this year, but next year anyway.

My life's goal: to force fischean itno using her moderator powers

by montanatwinsfan on Jul 12, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Hoping for regression to the mean

is not the same thing as being able to throw a fastball or a sinker past Ordonez and Cabrera. Right now, that ain’t happening for Blackburn. If you watch the movement on his pitches, it’s gone. We’re not talking about bad luck; it’s bad pitching. There’s a big difference, and there’s no reason to kick away games confusing the issue.

by Old Twins Cap on Jul 11, 2010 9:45 PM EDT reply actions

This is why I've been optimistic.

I’m not a total homer. But I know that our primary issue is the starting pitching. There is no way these guys will keep pitching at the rate they have been. Way worse than their career norms.

I know Baker can turn it around. Slowey too, although I worry about his wrist. He said himself in the offseason that he might not ever be the same.

As for Blackburn, he’s never had good peripherals. The contract was a bad idea. But, should he really be doing this terrible? The two previous years he was remarkably consistent. I refuse to believe he was just “lucky” for 66 starts. It’s obvious that he’s not striking out anybody and his walks have increased significantly. But I would like to know why. It’d be great if someone could do a write up on him looking deeper into his numbers.

by PurplePeopleEaters on Jul 11, 2010 11:29 PM EDT reply actions

I'm getting tired of waiting for these pitchers to hit their stride

It seems like the past 2 years we’ve been waiting for these guys to really show us what they have, consistently.

The frustrating thing about all 3 of these guys, and I’ll include Perkins in this group is they’ve shown an ability to pitch great at times. It’s the lack of any consistency that is maddening. Even the best pitcher will have poor games here and there but to have these runs of awfulness at times is ridiculous and makes me wonder if the Twins have a bunch of head cases on their hands.

Slowey does get a bit of a pass as he is coming back from injury though. Blackburn has been solid for 2 years before this as well. Perkins is well Perkins. Baker is probably the most frustrating one of the 3. No injuries, has the best “stuff” of all 4 (right???) and just can’t keep it together half the time.

Hoping you are right sir, but also hoping we make a trade soon. I’m still very much aboard the get Dan Haren train.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Jul 12, 2010 1:20 AM EDT reply actions

Liriano needs to be added to this list...

…as it wasn’t just his last start. A few weeks ago we opened a series at home against Detroit w/Liriano on the mound. The game was over before we came to bat in the bottom of the first. How about the big start against his friend, Jimenez, and the Rockies. That one was so ugly in the top of the first that I was sick. Does Liriano have the best “stuff” of the group….certainly. His problem however, may be more serious than the others.

Loved Souhan’s article this weekend, although I would trade Kubel rather than Young. Package one of the three starters with him and go out and get Oswalt. Then find another Pavano type deal and we should be set to make a run the last two months of the season. The key is not giving up a lot for a rental, get someone that will be here next year and even the year after.

by roger13 on Jul 12, 2010 7:59 AM EDT reply actions

you say don't give up much

but you suggest kubel not young. Is’nt that to much. I was thinking more like prospects. What did we give up last year? Not much, no starters, and no good prospects, AAAA types. I guess for Oswald I’d throw in Perk and Delaney,Dinkelman,Casillia,Tolbert.Tobby. Guy who need a chance elsewhere

by b1 on Jul 12, 2010 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Sure,

but at the same time you can’t just turn around and give somebody all of your trash and expect something back. None of those guys you mentioned will look attractive right now, to anybody.

by Jesse on Jul 12, 2010 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Homer trade

That’s just ridiculous to be honest. Hey give us a top 20 pitcher in the league who’s under contract and you can take a bunch of mediocre to bad utility infielders and 2 pitchers that can’t even compete in AAA this year.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Jul 12, 2010 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions

I made no proposal!

I’m not sure what it would take to get Oswald. But, I know we didn’t give up anything for Two good player and a fillin. We have alot of guys to take a chance on.

by b1 on Jul 12, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions

The problem I have with trading Kubel or Young

is that we would solve one problem by creating another. Who’s Kubel or Young’s replacement? Go out and trade for another guy for that? As much as Oswalt would be an upgrade, he’s less of an upgrade if we get worse at another position.

"Twins do not need to Lazy Joe maple syrup or Justin will win. They just need to Stache, beard, and embrace."

by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Jul 12, 2010 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

Creating holes by filling one isn’t the ideal way to do things. Minnesota’s area of strength is still pitching, and there’s actually some minor league depth among minor league outfielders as well. Deal from strength. If all else fails, then you can think about other tactics.

by Jesse on Jul 13, 2010 6:57 AM EDT up reply actions