Trade Deadline Week: Replacing Kevin Slowey?
by Jon Marthaler on Jul 19, 2010 11:00 AM EDT
in Trade Deadline Feature
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PrintIt would appear that Brian Duensing is headed for the Twins rotation, and Nick Blackburn is headed for parts unknown. (Or Rochester.) It seems less likely, then, that Duensing will be similarly supplanted via trade, and so the starting pitching question before the trade deadline becomes something different: what would it cost to upgrade from Kevin Slowey?
Allow me to ignore a few names right off the bat. Roy Oswalt is signed for $16 million next year. Dan Haren is signed for $12.75 million for both next year and the year after. According to John Bonnes, the Twins payroll is already shaping up at about $106 million next year - without Orlando Hudson or Carl Pavano, for starters, or any other free agent that might replace those two. Adding Oswalt or Haren would bump that up into the stratosphere. This seems highly unlikely. (And before you ask, Carlos Silva's $11.5 million for next year is an absolute non-starter. And it's also Carlos Silva, who would cause several notable Twins bloggers to commit suicide.)
With this in mind, let's compare a few of the others who might be on tap to replace Slowey. We'll use Fielding-Independent Pitching (FIP) numbers to do so, since those numbers only measure things that pitchers have demonstrable control over. Consider the following 2010 numbers:
| PLAYER | FIP |
| Player A | 4.13 |
| Player B | 4.22 |
| Player C | 4.40 |
| Player D | 4.70 |
| Player E | 4.72 |
You have been around long enough to know that one of these players, of course, is Slowey himself. The others, in descending order of FIP: Fausto Carmona, Ricky Nolasco, Ted Lilly, and Ben Sheets. And if you're waiting for the big reveal, here it is: Slowey is Player C.
Is it really worth it to replace Slowey, to give up assets, in order to get one of the other guys on that list?
This ignores a number of other potentially available trade targets, of course. You're welcome to examine others in the comments. But, as far as I can see, there aren't any options out there that are both A) a notable upgrade from Slowey and B) affordable for a team that's already nudging up against its payroll ceiling for next season.
No, Slowey hasn't been great lately - but the Twins likely can't afford to have five great starters. At the back end of the rotation, they may have to deal with a level that's better described as "Good enough. Sometimes."
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i fully agree
slowey will pitch a better second half.
by twinscrazy_german on Jul 19, 2010 11:07 AM EDT reply actions
I'm pretty content to ride out the storm with Slowey.
Same with Baker. But if we can find that one big upgrade, I want it. And in that situation, I imagine him taking Blackburn/Duensing’s place.
Without having looked at it too closely, Haren is the guy I like the most. Maybe the Twins overpay in some prospects to have Arizona pick up a third of the tab or something. I’m not sure, that still might be too much in bost $$ and players.
Send Baker or Blackburn out to take $$ back
I’m not on board with trading an MLB pitcher for a rental. However, I could get behind dealing Baker or Blackburn out and getting Haren or Oswalt back. Would the Astros take Revere + Baker for Oswalt?
No thanks
If I’m Houston, I’d do that in a second solely due to Oswalt’s contract. Baker’s contract saves us some money, $11.5M plus a $9.25M club option in 2013. Oswalt is due $16M next year alone, then a $16M club option in 2012.
So the question is, Baker at $5M next season or Oswalt at $16M? Me, I don’t see Oswalt bringing an additional $11M of value over Baker, not to mention that giving up Baker just opens up another hole in the rotation.
All of this is assuming Oswalt would waive his no trade clause to come to Minnesota.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 19, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Adam it's not the money value. It's wins.
Is Oswalt 3 times the value as Baker? Of course not. Hey you pay a premium for the #1 guys in a rotation. We can sit tight & hope some of these guys come around. I’m sure we can stay competitive within our division with what we got. The Yankees & Rays have schooled us & the Rangers now have Lee. The problem is the postseason, that is if we get there. Pavano & Liriano with Oswalt would at least give us a fighting chance in October.
Maybe it's just Cliff Lee hangover
But Oswalt just doesn’t excite me. I know his numbers are good, but he just doesn’t seem like a #1 for a championship caliber team if you ask me. I just wouldn’t feel confident throwing Oswalt out against a Sabathia, Lee, Price, or even Lester. I like Oswalt better as a #2 or #3 pitcher, but that is an awful lot of money to be paying someone who is not a true ace.
It's some kind of hangover
Oswalt is about as ace as they come
Well, I don't think I'm alone with this sentiment
Why is everybody so scared of the Twins paying him 16 million or whatever it is next year if he really is a true ace for a championship team, not merely an ace for a crap team like the Astros?
I have no confidence he can turn it around
In the past month, he has been brutal. He’s why we’re keeping 13 pitchers until further notice. If we can replace him with a competent pitcher, we should.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Blackburn will get replaced by Duensing
The question is, who replaces Slowey. The consensus here is, don’t replace him. I say try to replace him because his numbers are only good in Target Field for a reason. He gives up a lot of warning track fly balls in TF that would be homers in most other ballparks.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I see.
So basically, in the event of an outside arrival you’d rather start Duensing than Slowey. It’s hard to argue that with the results we’ve seen so far this year.
Although I'd still go with Slowey over Duensing in the rotation.
I don’t think Duensing’s stuff is good enough to be anymore effective than Blackburn long-term, not as a starter.
Duensing has good control of four pitches
And he has a plus curveball. Neither Slowey nor Blackburn have plus off-speed stuff. Duensing has earned his chance to show that Septemebr 2009 was not a fluke.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Yes, I think Slowey has actually been worse than his numbers
Watching him pitch, I’m amazed they don’t just tee off on him. He throws way too many fastballs between the belt and the letters in the middle of the plate. I’m astonished at how many of them are just fouled straight back. Unless he can make the adjustment to bring the ball down and more on the corners, he’s in for a rough second half. He’s been lucky so far.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
The myth that FIP eliminates luck
FIP is a good stat. But it doesn’t completely eliminate luck. It only eliminates the luck guys have by having exceptional fielders behind them. It doesn’t eliminate the luck guys have by facing poor hitters or having a lot of hard-hit balls hit right at people. The other thing I’ve noticed is Slowey has gotten a lot of loud outs this year. Odds are, those will find gaps int eh outfield eventually. FIP doesn’t factor in line drives vs. bloop singles.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Not sure what luck you're talking about
A pitcher would have the same FIP if he gave up a line drive right at someone or if he gives up a bloop single. Where FIP fails to eliminate luck from the equation is with home runs. If a pitcher has been lucky to have fly balls not quite reach teh fence compared to league and park averages, FIP may be low due to fewer HR allowed. That is why xFIP considers fly ball rates and normalized HR allowed.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 19, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
When a pitcher gives up a lot of line drives hit right at people, we say he has been lucky
As you say, FIP does not control for this kind of luck. I know you can get pitchers’ GB/FB rates. And I think they track FB rates by pop up/line drive/other. But to my knowledge, line drive % does not affect FIP.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
That's my point
we’re probably in “violent agreement”. I’m pretty sure xFIP only considers fly ball rate, not necessarily FB versus LD versus IFFB, etc.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 19, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
You nailed it with the A-E thing.
Slowey’s a pretty decent bet compared to the alternatives, and he has the fabulous advantages of being cheap and not costing any prospects.
Why his FIP is so low...Target Field
He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher who will tend to give up a lot of homers. He just hasn’t given up many homers ar home because nobody has given up homers at home. Put one of those other pitchers in Target Field and their FIP will go down significantly.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Well his xFIP (neutralizing home run rate) is 4.68, which still isn’t horrible.
by drivlikejehu on Jul 19, 2010 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Not true
Slowey’s HR/FB at home: 9.9 %
Slowey’s HR/FB on the road: 8.5 %
His fly ball rates are basically identical in both spots (51.3% and 51.4%). His FIP and xFIP are much better at home than on the road, but that’s because of his strikeout rate (7.19 K/9 at home, 5.15 on the road), not his fly ball or home run rate.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
I stand corrected
Maybe it’s the mound. Or maybe he’s less tentative at home. For whatever reason, he’s been great at home, with the exception of his last start.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Tentative
I think that’s it. Slowey is pitching tentative out there. Part may be due to uncertainty coming back from the injury, part due to upcoming arbitration / contract questions. For whatever reason, he’s not comfortable out there, especially with his off speed stuff. And it would make sense that any pitcher would be somewhat more comfortable at home in a pitcher’s ballpark.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 19, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
who would cause several notable Twins bloggers to commit suicide
Not certain I see the downside to this . . .
by That'sWhatSheSaid on Jul 19, 2010 12:44 PM EDT reply actions
I basically agree with everyone else
The only pitcher that is worth getting at this point is Oswalt. Slowey hasn’t been good, but, he is servicable. I’d love to move Oswalt into his spot, however money will stop that in half a second because Houston isn’t willing to eat any contract.
The only way Oswalt becomes a Twin is if Houston completely reverses their course, eates about half of his 2011 contract and the option buy out OR the Twins trade due-money for him. The only option there is to send Cuddyer and his $10+ million 2011 contract, which I don’t even want to contemplate as a possibility.
Oswalt and Lilly
Lilly is worth getting, he’s just not worth giving up as much as Oswalt. Lilly is lefthanded so is a better than even money bet to outperform his FIP, especially in Target Field.
Beware Duensing as a solution
While I think Duensing would be an upgrade over either Blackburn or Slowey at this point, he has been helped by a low .241 BABIP to date. Last year he was at .295, which is in line with most of his minor league numbers. So expect some amount of regression for the remainder of the season. But Duensing has kept his LD% down (15.2%) and he’s improved his ground ball rate this year. So hopefully a regression wouldn’t be too bad, ERA in the high 3’s / low 4’s in line with his FIP/xFIP.
Yes, and also
As one of the other fine posters here pointed out, Duensing’s current #s, including FIP, are probably already lower than you’d expect they would be as a starter because he’s been deployed as a reliever and has faced an inordinate # of left-handers out of the pen since Gardenhire can be selective in using him.
In fact, look at his FIP L/R splits:
2.31 FIP vs. left-handed hitters
5.12 FIP vs. right-handed hitters
Once opposing managers start stacking the lineup with right-handed hitters against Duensing, he’s going to look significantly less attractive as a rotation option (unfortunately).
Just to be clear, this isn’t a defense of Blackburn—a change needed to be made. Just noting that we should lower our expectations for Duensing.
Lower Expectations
I’d be perfectly happy, thrilled in fact, with the way Duensing pitched down the stretch last year since joining the rotation on 22 Aug. Over 8 starts, Duensing was 5-1 with a 2.64 ERA and 14 BB / 31 SO. Even an ERA in the 3’s or low 4’s is a big improvement over Blackburn and Slowey of late.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 19, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
and Manship cost what?
825,000.$ I’m not sure his FIP would be any worse. It’s a long season, I think we can get by with what we have. It seems Gardy refusses to sit some guys down. Hay, the are having a off year, make some changes!
why is a $130 or $140 million payroll unrealistic?
forget FIP for a minute, where are your financials?
at the beginning of the year, twins revenues were projected to rise $50 million annually, including an additional 10,000 season ticket holders yearly. as the season concludes, those numbers will certainly prove conservative. so, again, why would an oswalt deal be unrealistic?
i think twins fans need to raise the bar a little bit. they have a legitimate shot at the world series this year.
Twins revenues were projected to rise by $50 million THIS year.
I’m not sure where you get annually, so you’ll have to point that out.
It’s feasible the Twins could go to $110 million next year, but even by the time you get to $120 million it’s just not going to happen. There won’t be THAT much new money coming in.
Yeah
They are over budget on the revenue side, meaning they’ve sold a lot more tickets and concessions than they projected. Based on that, they might push the cost side of the budget up as well. But I wouldn’t expect them to go crazy. They’ll invest 50% of the surplus. Even if the surplus is $20 million, they’d only push the budget for player salaries up by $10 million.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
+1
I don’t think we’re opening a new ballpark next year. In fact, I would expect revenue from teh ballpark may go down in 2011, as many folks will have made that extra trip or two to Target Field for the “first visit”. I would expect a drop in attendance, perhaps not too much of a drop if we’re a winning ballclub, but teams always seem to get a bump in that first year of a new park.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 19, 2010 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Ticket prices will go up
Sellouts will cause that.
right, $50 million over 2009
i misspoke, but the point remains: twins fans deserve a $130-$140 million payroll for 2011, and a $125m payroll for 2010.
consider: for 2010 the tigers are spending $122 million on payroll with revenues of just $188 million. thats a ratio of $0.64 every $1 spent on payroll. so, if the twins spend $110 million with revenues of $200 next year, as you suggest, they will commit only $0.55 for every $1. not only that, but according to forbes, the tigers are worth 29 million less, have twice as much debt, and are trending the same as the twins at 9% annual team value change.
again, at the very least, twins fans should expect their owners to match the tigers’ payroll dollar for dollar this year and next, especially because the franchise is a lock to be very profitable. why shouldnt it also be competitive?
I'm with you yefrem. Competitive is a nice way of saying good but not good enough.
The money for Oswalt is not extreme for an Ace. I see the Twins as a team that is a player or 2 for being a real force is this league. A true championship caliper team. So do we stop short & hope the stars align or do we make the moves & go toe to toe with the big boys.
No, it's a lot of money for Oswalt.
Especially considering his age, how many years are left on his contract, and the Twins’ own financial limitations after this season.
If you want the Twins to get Oswalt, you should come up with an extraordinarily creative solution and email it to the front office asap.
This year, the 'Stros might eat some salary
It’s next year’s contract that nobody wants.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
The Twins are already over the league average in the salary vs revenue department.
And “keeping up with the Joneses” isn’t a good way to run any operation. The Twins haven’t had to spend to keep up with the Tigers too much in the last 10 years, and there isn’t any reason to change that. This has been a competetive, and a winning, organization the way they’re already being run.
The Twins payroll will rise next year, as it likely will in incriments over the next few seasons. Speculation on what the Twins should or shouldn’t spend is a different conversation.
twins will have to spend a lot more money to win a world series
esp. since their AA and AAA teams are a combined 63-128
I disagree...
I don’t see them needing to spend anymore than they are now to win it all. Make it to the playoffs and anything can happen. 1987 Twins play .525 (or so) baseball and won it all. Make it to the playoffs and get hot at the right time.
Who knows. Last years Mauer foul ball could have tied us at 1-1 with the Yankees and all of a sudden it is a whole different scenario.
Your'e right Jesse we are over the league average.
Do you honestly think that we will win a world series staying around the league average? I don’t. I have no problem with the Twins being in the top 5-10 range in terms of salary. The revenues are now there. The key is true value for your money. Yes we have been competitive but 1991 was not just a few years back either. People born in 91 are going to college now.
I was born in 1990
Which means I have never seen the Twins win a WS (I didn’t even know what baseball was ‘til I was probably about 5 years old) or even get to a WS. Which also means that I have suffered through a lot of “almost” seasons, both with the Twins and Vikings. Maybe that is why I’m more willing to risk mortgaging the future than some of the older bloggers here who have already seen the Twins win a championship and don’t want to go back to the lean years of mid-late 1990s under any circumstances (i.e. they are generally never in favor of making any risky trades to get players to help us win this year if it means we may be worse down the road).
There's a big difference between wanting to win the WS and expecting this team's payroll to explode more than it already has.
If there’s a way the Twins can fit that money in, then do it. I don’t care. It just doesn’t seem realistic. And it has nothing to do with ’91 (which I barely remember) or even ’02, this season is this season.
The Twins do have a chance to win it all this year. And they definitely need a starter to give them a boost. But it has less to do with payroll than constructing a good roster. Right now, these things align—because the Twins need a starter and they’ll need more money to bring him on.
You just have to be realistc. The MLB average for revenue vs payroll is right around 52%. The Twins have operated above that threshhold for years. They’ve already said they’d add payroll this season in the right deal. Now, they just have to find a way to make it work.
You say the revenues are now there — of course they are, that’s why the team salary is at $97 million. But if this team generates more revenue than they expect, then guess what…the payroll will adjust accordingly. And if it doesn’t, payroll will have to be in the $110 – $115 million range next season.
And that’s already amazing.
there is no telling what the league average would be if owners weren't required to spend 50% on payroll
i’m just saying we can, and should, expect more – especially since we subsidized the team for $350 mil.
We didn't subsidize the team
We subsidized half the venue. There’s a difference.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
We also have to consider Slowey's innings.
Guy only threw 90 innings last year, he’s already over 100 now, so it’s hard to imagine he’s going to continue to be even this quality for another 80 or so this year. He’s probably going to have to be shut down in September anyway.
Not a fan of FIP
just way to many variables. Entire formula is just random…
The formula itself has estimates or assumptions, some random numbers and randomly selected categories. HR’s is weighted to much to come up with a logical answer.
You can’t start looking for something specific when you already have independent variables that are not based on facts….rather based on just a hunch. (maybe some are educated, or have some kind of thought pattern )
Just looking at those pitchers I could venture to say which have been pitching well and which haven’t.
Slowey has great control but hasn’t been getting the hitters out he had before. He needs to work on an out pitch and changing speeds. Hitters are just onto him.
Sheets is last on the FIP list, but certainly not the worst pitcher. At least he has an out pitch, and is more dependable to get a strikeout if needed.
Am I saying Sheets over Slowey? Not necessarily. But I wouldn’t use FIP to make a decision.
fascinating
You’ve managed to parrot every single commentator on national TV. Where do you get this wondrous insight?
snark aside
The FIP and xFIP formula have evolved from a lot of people looking at a lot of data over a number of years. Please learn what the concepts behind the formula are before calling them “random”.
FIP is a better predictor of future ERA than ERA is
As ravenfly mentioned, calling it “random” is an insult to the people who have actually studied the subject in order to come up with the formula. The inputs used in FIP are in no way random – it was designed around a specific set of inputs (basically factoring out balls in play), not the other way around.
FIP’s weighting of home runs is the entire reason why xFIP exists.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
I'm not a fan either
I still like the ERA because it is the truest measurement of how many runs a pitcher gives up are his fault. FIP would be a good stat if all ballparks were the same size, all umpires had the same strike zone, and all the other variables like wind and temperature were the same. The problem is that these other factors play a big role in whether balls leave the park as home runs, bang off the wall for doubles (which are not factored in to figuring out a pitcher’s FIP), or fall harmlessly into an outfielders glove for an out.
Also, it cannot be said that walks and strikeouts are a totally independent pitching stat. Sure, the pitcher is not influenced by his defense’s positioning or range (or lack thereof), but he is still influenced by the size of the umpire’s strike zone. As we all know, no two strike zones are quite alike. A pitcher’s walks/strikeouts, and home runs allowed are influenced by umpires and field conditions respectively, making the FIP stat just as flawed as ERA (which is not entirely reliable for predicting future results due to the difference between having a Span and Gomez covering the outfield vs. Span and Kubel).
Second paragraph
Walks and strikeouts are about as independent as pitching stats get. Sure, in small sample sizes they’ll vary, just like everything else, but over the course of a season a player is who he is. He’s not going to stop striking guys out because of umpires, and he’s not going to start walking significantly more or less hitters because of umpires. Changes in these numbers aren’t due to umpires, they’re due to pitchers.
Depends on what you're trying to do
I still like the ERA because it is the truest measurement of how many runs a pitcher gives up are his fault. FIP would be a good stat if all ballparks were the same size, all umpires had the same strike zone, and all the other variables like wind and temperature were the same.
If you’re evaluating the player’s actual contribution to the team in a given period of time, I’d agree with you – the most important thing that a pitcher can do is prevent runs, and ERA measures that. But the things that you’re trying to claim are limitations of FIP (park sizes, etc.) are actually the entire point of FIP – if you want to decide whether to acquire a pitcher, you want to know whether his BABIP may have been inflated by a bad defense, or whether his home run rate was due to playing in a bandbox, or whether he may have just had bad luck. It’s greatest value is as a predictive stat, not as a direct measure of the pitcher’s contribution to the team.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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