Trade Deadline Week: Standing Pat at Third Base?
Should the Twins be looking to acquire a third baseman at the trade deadline? The idea has certainly drifted to the back burner in recent weeks. The team obviously has bigger needs in the rotation and the bullpen is starting to look awfully suspect. At the same time, Danny Valencia has performed admirably, the Twins have shown a willingness to (at least temporarily) use Michael Cuddyer at third, and Nick Punto continues to be an elite defensive infielder.
As Cuddyer spells Morneau at first, I expect the Twins to continue to use some sort of time share with Valencia and Punto at third. I'm skeptical that Valencia will be able to maintain this level of production the rest of the season. To me, Valencia looks an awfully lot like a guy getting by on a fluky batting average that could quickly be erased by a short slump. That being said, it's hard to imagine the Twins sending Valencia to AAA while he's still hitting .314.
The decision of whether the Twins should pursue a third baseman rests on three important factors:
1. Is the front office willing to roll the dice with Cuddyer at third after Morneau comes back from the DL?
2. If Cuddyer is not viewed as an everyday option at third, can Valencia continue to hit well enough to garner regular playing time?
3. If Cuddy won't be used regularly at third, is there a realistic trade target that would contribute more than Valencia/Punto?
To help us answer that third question, I put together a list of potential trade targets the Twins could explore at third. I think the list is pretty exhaustive, but if folks have other ideas, leave them in the comments and I'll add them to the spreadsheet.
The list contains a projection of how the player will hit the rest of the season (based on the median of the ZIPS and CHONE rest-of-season projections), as well as a summary of the player's defensive skill at third base, as measured by his past three year's of UZR/150 at the position (note: the UZR numbers are only for games played at third base. I put NA for any season a player didn't play at least 25 games at 3B).
|
PROJECTION |
UZR/150 |
|
|||||
|
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
2011 Contract Status |
|
|
Nick Punto |
0.245 |
0.329 |
0.322 |
21.1 |
NA |
NA |
Under Contract |
|
0.235 |
0.339 |
0.442 |
-17.8 |
NA |
-6.7 |
Arb. Eligible |
|
|
0.242 |
0.325 |
0.420 |
-4.4 |
-15.2 |
-14.4 |
Arb. Eligible |
|
|
0.288 |
0.325 |
0.414 |
-5.7 |
NA |
NA |
FA |
|
|
0.269 |
0.331 |
0.445 |
NA |
-80.1 |
-29.6 |
FA |
|
|
0.260 |
0.325 |
0.413 |
-9.5 |
-3.3 |
NA |
$7 m. club option ($250K buyout) |
|
|
0.271 |
0.325 |
0.432 |
-15.1 |
-29.7 |
-8.5 |
FA |
|
|
0.248 |
0.305 |
0.374 |
2.2 |
6.7 |
18.8 |
FA |
|
|
Alberto Callaspo |
0.284 |
0.333 |
0.416 |
7.5 |
NA |
NA |
Arb. Eligible |
|
0.252 |
0.332 |
0.381 |
-7.4 |
5.1 |
-1.8 |
Arb. Eligible |
|
|
0.268 |
0.300 |
0.413 |
7.5 |
NA |
NA |
$4.5 m. Club Option ($250K buyout) |
|
|
Aramis Ramirez |
0.272 |
0.341 |
0.475 |
-5.4 |
-5.6 |
-4.1 |
$14.6 m. Player Option |
|
0.251 |
0.291 |
0.381 |
-13.7 |
8.9 |
11.2 |
FA |
|
|
0.274 |
0.333 |
0.430 |
NA |
-14.4 |
12.9 |
FA |
|
|
0.271 |
0.333 |
0.416 |
NA |
-3.8 |
NA |
Arb. Eligible |
|
|
0.268 |
0.350 |
0.375 |
NA |
NA |
NA |
FA |
|
|
Kevin Kouzmanoff |
0.264 |
0.305 |
0.425 |
14.7 |
9.9 |
2.6 |
Arb. Eligible |
Some thoughts:
- Without a doubt, the best player on this list (despite his miserable first half) is Aramis Ramirez. However, his $14 million player option in 2011 makes him prohibitively expensive for a Twins team with so much money already tied up next season.
- Some of the most frequently talked about possibilities for the Twins (names like Wigginton, Tejada, Cantu and Lowell) range from below average to terrible defensively. Whatever upgrade they'd bring to the team's offense by replacing Punto, they'd give back some (if not all) of that value with the glove.
- Two names I hadn't given much consideration to actually look pretty good in this comparison: Alberto Callaspo and Kevin Kouzmanoff. The A's are still in the playoff hunt, though, which means Kouzmanoff is likely not on the market. Callaspo, however, is stuck on a miserable Royals team. His offensive projections are similar to Lowell and Tejada, but over 881 innings at third base his career UZR/150 is a solid 9.4. On the other hand, Royals fans hammered Callaspo's defense in the past (when he played second). It could be that defensive metrics are glossing over his limitations with the glove.
- Don't look now, but Iwamura has been hitting great at AAA since he got demoted by the Pirates in June. He's batted 323/475/452 in 19 games at Indianapolis.
- One final note: outside of Aramis Ramirez, nobody on this list comes anywhere close to providing what Michael Cuddyer offers on offense.
Given the options available to the Twins, I'd be interested in hearing what the community thinks the Twins should do as far as third base. Do we try the Cuddyer experiment once again? Do we hand the job to Valencia until he proves he doesn't deserve it? Do we keep Punto's glove at third, especially while our starters are struggling? Or does one of the options I've outlined about interest you? Personally, I'm not convinced there is an option out there that represents a significant upgrade when both offense and defense are taken into consideration. But that doesn't mean there isn't some value in bringing in a new option at third base, giving us the flexibility of having Punto as a super utility player.
1 recs |
51 comments
|
Comments
First, I don't think Gardy would
play a week glove at 3B over Punto, at least not everyday. If we did pick someone up with a strong RH bat I could see them DHing and splitting time at 3B. I guess it’s up to the FO in what they are willing to spend or give-up. For now I’m okay with 3B, Punto’s up to .250 and Valencia has had good at bats,takes walks and makes contact, from the Right Side.
Gardy would play an established veteran over Punto everday who doesn't field as well
like Tejada…
it fights, but tolbert the true rubbish, is the son--japanese proverb
Chase Utley is a Nick Punto-type player, but with power--Bert Blyleven
by ajmargarine on Jul 21, 2010 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Cuddyer
Is Cuddyer overpaid? Probably. WOnder what he would really draw on the open amrket. Twins will find out in 2012, or if CUddy likes it so much here, maybe the Twins can get him for 2-4 years at $5-6 million.
If Cuddyer is consistent, .260+ average and 15-20 homers, he will be a wonderful bench guy to have around. If he is cheaper than, say, Kubel, I would play him at DH down the line, with the option that he can fill-in at 1st, 3rd or the OF. That makes him horribly valuable. And it still allows the Twins to rest 1Bman Morneau or give Mauer DH at bats. So if you look at Cuddyer as the DH down the road, maybe as early as next season (trade Kubel?)….all I can say is wow! Plus he has the clubhouse factor and the community factor and has all those pictures of Gardenhire and…..
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Unless we can get a big upgrade on both sides of the ball at 3B,
I’d rather keep giving Valencia the reps.
by Jesse on Jul 21, 2010 10:09 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
And Beau, you made my life easier
I wanted to do something about 3B this week, but now I can shorten it to just something about Valencia.
Don't waste effort on 3B
Pitchers, dammit!
Valencia at 3rd, Punto as Mr. Utility … his rightful place. I don’t see any reason why he couldn’t be a good glove with some speed in the outfield. Use him to give guys a night off. This would require some out of the box thinking by Gardy, so I would be surprised if it happened.
I'd run a Valencia/Thome platoon at 3B
Cuddyer at 3B, Thome at DH against RHP and Cuddyer in RF, Valencia at 3B against LHP. Valencia against LHP and Thome against RHP are both roughly 2 WAR players. Punto can be a late inning defensive sub/PR/spot starter/backup plan.
Cuddyer's playing 1B
At least for now. I would avoid Cuddyer at 3B if possible.
Gardy's going to play Cuddyer everyday
So if your choice is between Punto/Valencia at 3B or Thome at DH vs a RHP I’d rather have Jim mash some taters. Cuddyer’s value is similar when playing 3B or RF. I’ll agree that he’s “hide your small children” scary at 3B.
by Jon Kammerer on Jul 21, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Focus on pitchers and give Valencia a chance
As we have seen over the last few weeks, the Twins’ biggest need is in the starting rotation. Valencia is playing well, give him a chance to keep it going. If he fails, Punto is there to fill in for him.
You didn’t mention Mauer at third. If we move Mauer to third; Butera will finally get his chance to shine in the majors…all he needs is a chance! -I kid.
Let Valencia
play as much as you can. see what he does have to offer. offesnively, no worse than Punto. Can he maintain it…say, playing 3 out of five days, for the rest of the season?
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Yep...
I don’t mind the current plan, which is essentially a platoon of Valencia and Thome. Thome plays DH against righties, with Kubel in RF and Cuddy at 3b. Against lefties, Valencia plays 3b, with Kubel at DH and Cuddy in RF. With Mauer mixed in some at DH as well.
That’s our best option considering cost/production IMO. I’d focus on starting pitching, and possible one power reliever, as well.
Stand pat at 3B
Valencia will likely regress slightly, but between him and Punto we have a solid 3B combo. Punto’s OBP makes him more valuable offensively than most people are willing to admit, and his range is astounding. Valencia is solid defensively, and currently solid offensively, although I’d love to see the gap power that he’s supposed to develop. We are above what is considered “average” offensively at other positions (C, potentially SS if Hardy stays healthy), so we can afford to slip slightly at 3B while having above average defense.
It took Delmon a while to develope the power.
I might take a year for Valencia too.
by b1 on Jul 21, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
4th Cuddyer Factor....Will he be a Twin next year?
Twins have a club option on Cuddyer for $10.5M (1M Buyout) for 2011. What do we think the odds are of the Twins excerising that option or trying to renegotiate a longer contract.
Mauer’s $23M a year kicks in next year. Nathan owed $23.75M for 2011-12
I don't think they've made the decision
But, realistically, I don’t think they can afford the option. They need a pitchers like Pavano to compete. That’s going to cost them more than it does right now. Add raises for Mauer and Morneau and you’ve got serious budget problems.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I'd rather keep Orlando Hudson
Paying $5M to Hudson makes more sense than paying $10M to Cuddyer. I think the Twins may renegotiate that extension and keep him at a lower salary. There seems to be mutual interest in bringing him back.
Hudson.......
Interesting case. A guy who thinks he is worth a lot mroe than he is making. He does put up consistent numbers, but is he worth more than $5-6 and would he bite a 2-year $12 mill contract, elt’s say, with an option for a third? If he would, I would.
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incorrect
Twins had to pick up Cuddy’s option for 2011 after the 2009 season. He’s signed for next year…it’s the last year of his deal, so he’ll be around at $10.5M
it fights, but tolbert the true rubbish, is the son--japanese proverb
Chase Utley is a Nick Punto-type player, but with power--Bert Blyleven
by ajmargarine on Jul 21, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
That's what I thought
So my comment is, they’ll try to find takers, but I don’t know who they could entice to take that contract on. They might be stuck with it, which will limit their ability to get the pitching they need.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Another reason why dealing an established starter isn't a good idea.
With this team up against it next season and the way Pavano is pitching, next season looks like Liriano, Baker, Slowey and then whoever shows up between Blackburn, Perkins, Duensing, Manship and Swarzak…unless a guy like Gibson is ready.
That's why we need to trade for a SP now, who is signed for next year
We are rolling in the $$$ this year. Bite the bullet and go get Oswalt imo
it fights, but tolbert the true rubbish, is the son--japanese proverb
Chase Utley is a Nick Punto-type player, but with power--Bert Blyleven
by ajmargarine on Jul 21, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
You are right.....
He is signed for next year at $10.5M.
Also, Punto isn't under contract for next year
he has a $5M club option ($0.5M buyout), which I doubt they pick up. If they want him they’d be wise to pay the buyout and sign him to a 1yr/3.5M deal or let him go.
it fights, but tolbert the true rubbish, is the son--japanese proverb
Chase Utley is a Nick Punto-type player, but with power--Bert Blyleven
I can see the Twins buying out the last year and brining back Punto, but at a deal closer to 2 years and $5 million. With the market so depressed, he isn’t gonna get more anywhere else, and he hasn’t shown he should be starting anyway.
Punto or Hardy
Remember, if the Twins buyout Punto, he can be a free agent. Who knows what some team may offer him.
Looks like arbitration for Hardy might price him over $6 million, maybe even $7+ if he ahs a half-assed decent year.
Would you rather have Punto at this point playing shortstop or Hardy? Kinda a toss up.
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Next Year
Also not signed for next year Young, Hardy, Hudson, Pavano, Liriano, Crain, Gurrier, Rauch…
Young, Hardy and Liriano are all arb-eligible...they'll be back, guaranteed.
The rest…I’d be surprised if one of those five were retained.
Comfortable
I’m fine with Valencia/Punto handling the hot corner. I’m not crazy about putting Cuddy there at all. He’s a poor defender and never really seems to swing the lumber well when he’s playing the 5.
Still, I would inquire about a few of those guys. Callaspo, Bautista and Cantu would be an upgrade. If they can be had for Dustin Mohr or Tyler Robertson I’d take it. It worked with the Indians last year.
The focus needs to be a SP though. Everyone here knows that. 3B is at best third on the list of needs right now. A quick call with those squads to say we got a mid/low level prospect for them if their interested is about all the time Billy’s office should be spending on this one.
by PinkiePinkerton on Jul 21, 2010 12:36 PM EDT reply actions
random stat: Span 4-43 on 3-2 pitches
it fights, but tolbert the true rubbish, is the son--japanese proverb
Chase Utley is a Nick Punto-type player, but with power--Bert Blyleven
oops, that was for the game thread lolz
it fights, but tolbert the true rubbish, is the son--japanese proverb
Chase Utley is a Nick Punto-type player, but with power--Bert Blyleven
Care to gloat?
I believe you predicted this level of regression.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
stand pat...
honestly, you have to have a weakpoint SOMEWHERE out there. If we are going to make a deal, I’d rather it be for pitching. I think a combo of Valencia/Punto/Cuddy is just fine. Personally I’d like to see Valencia get a shot to earn that job and allow Punto to be the top backup for the entire infield (minus first base). Lets let him show us he can’t handle it rather than just assuming he’d fall apart when he hasn’t so far.
Give Valencia a shot
I am not an accountant , but the Twins should use what they have right now. Danny V is hitting And fielding just fine. Where the money that comes from all those 40 thousand fans, should go to is, some strike em out flame throwing pitchers.
by Kentucky Twins Fan on Jul 21, 2010 8:04 PM EDT reply actions
Look to the sell low Marlins...It is that time of year
Maybe I’m crazy, but I have been calling for a Twins-Marlins trade since June. Could kill two birds with one semi-cheap stone….Nolasco-Cantu for Baker-Butera?..anybody?..Okay, if you think that’s crazy, why don’t we go for the biggie: Johnson-Uggla (yea, he can play third as well as Cuddy) for Blackburn-Cuddy-future draft pick. It helps the payroll, and ensures that Florida follows thier usual July/August yard sale.
Not yet...but I will later, and then I poor out a little for Bakers spent arm...
Johnson-Uggla is a dream at best…but can’t blame me for wishing the Twins could shake a some tree’s before the Yankees buy the whole league…
I do think Nolasco is a good young arm, and Cantu is not playing like the last few years, but could still be a nice right handed bat. They could swing this trade without giving up too much.
We all see different players differently
What you think might work I see as a joke and what I think, you might think is a joke. This is the fun of Blogs and Badeball. Is anyone ever right? Once in a while I’ll say, see I told you!
by b1 on Jul 21, 2010 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions
You can't trade future draft picks in baseball.
I’m not sure if you can get around this by saying “draft who we want in round 3 of the 2012 draft and send them to us” and then shaking hands.
But then you have to wait a year after the draft pick signs
so it wouldn’t work out terribly well for the receiving team.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 22, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Stand Pat
I’m with most of you. I would stand pat at third base, go with a combination of Valencia and Punto. Cuddyer at third may be an option, but that depends on when Morneau comes back.
Regarding Valencia, I think he’s smoke and mirrors in the Majors to this point. At this point, his .314 batting average is driven largely by a .367 BABIP. And he’s not slugging (.043 ISO). But he’s still a better offensive option than Punto and he’s been pretty darn good with the glove. I’m fine with a Valencia – Punto platoon of some sort at third.

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