Trade Deadline Week: How responsible is it for the Twins to target Roy Oswalt?
by Jesse on Jul 21, 2010 7:21 PM EDT
in Trade Deadline Feature
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PrintWe've bantered about this for a few weeks, so let's actually run the numbers.
Depending on who you talk to, the 2010 Minnesota Twins have a payroll somewhere between $97 million and $106 million. Either way, they're right around the triple digit mark. Going into 2011, we can assume some payroll growth, but expecting anything more than $115 million constitutes living in a dream world.
For '11, the Twins have seven players under contract. Here they are.
| Player | 2011 Salary |
| Joe Mauer | $23,000,000 |
| Justin Morneau | $14,000,000 |
| Joe Nathan | $11,250,000 |
| Michael Cuddyer | $10,500,000 |
| Scott Baker | $5,000,000 |
| Nick Blackburn | $3,000,000 |
| Denard Span | $1,000,000 |
| Total | $67,750,000 |
Options
Jason Kubel: $5.25 MM club option or $350 K buyout
Nick Punto: $5 MM club option or $500 K buyout
At that price, it's guaranteed that the Twins pick up Kubel's option. I'd also be shocked if the Twins picked up Punto's option, simply because the value versus cost balancing act starts to get out of hand.
Adding Kubel's option and Punto's buyout, 2011 total: $73.5 MM
Arbitration
This is where costs start adding up quickly. Matt Tolbert, Alexi Casilla and Kevin Slowey are arbitration-eligible for the first time. Glen Perkins, Pat Neshek, Delmon Young and Francisco Liriano are aribtration-eligible for the second time. Clay Condrey and J.J. Hardy will be arbitration-eligible for the third time.
We'll take a look at arbitration salaries, impending free agents and an estimated 2011 payroll and roster after the jump.
| Player | Status | '10 Salary | '11 Estimate |
| J.J. Hardy | Arb 3 | $5,100,000 | $7,000,000 |
| Clay Condrey | Arb 3 | $900,000 | Non-Tender |
| Francisco Liriano | Arb 2 | $1,600,000 | $4,000,000 |
| Delmon Young | Arb 2 | $2,600,000 | $6,000,000 |
| Pat Neshek | Arb 2 | $625,000 | $1,000,000 |
| Glen Perkins | Arb 2 | $450,000 | $700,000 |
| Kevin Slowey | Arb 1 | $470,000 | $1,500,000 |
| Alexi Casilla | Arb 1 | $437,500 | $900,000 |
| Matt Tolbert | Arb 1 | $430,000 | $800,000 |
| Totals | $12,612,500 | $21,900,000 |
I've tried to be pretty reasonable with arbitration estimates, but it's no secret that last winter I drastically underestimated the totals initially. So even in this case, which could be somewhat conservative, arbitration salaries bring our 2011 estimate to $94.5 million.
This includes a non-tender for Condrey, who will probably never pitch for the Twins. Casilla, depending on his performance, may or may not make it to 2011 with Minnesota. You could also make non-tender cases for guys like Tolbert and Perkins, depending on performance, but in the grand scheme of things these guys won't be breaking the bank either way.
Assuming the Twins offer contracts to the eight players listed above, the Twins roster breakdown looks like this:
Catchers: Mauer
Infield: Morneau, Hardy, Casilla, Tolbert
Outfield: Cuddyer, Span, Kubel, Young
Starters: Baker, Blackburn, Liriano, Slowey, Perkins
Relievers: Nathan, Neshek
That's 16 players. Round out the roster with nine more players at about $400,000 per and that's another $3.6 million, taking us to a $98.1 million minimum opening day salary for 2011.
Impending Free Agents
That doesn't sound too bad, until you remember that the Twins would be losing Carl Pavano, Orlando Hudson, Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain and Jim Thome. That's a lot of quality out the door.
Basically, with a payroll somewhere around $100 million for next year from the word go, the Twins will have somewhere between $5 and $15 million to spend on free agents depending on revenue. If you want to spend a couple million on Guerrier or another veteran relief pitcher, or a couple million on a bargain-bin second baseman, or if you want to spend a few million on a number three starter to shore up the rotation, there's money to do one or two of those things.
But if the Twins trade for Roy Oswalt, that's pretty much it. There is no more money to spend. The infield is weak on offense, the outfield defense is still suspect, the back end of the rotation is suspect and the bullpen could be an absolute mess depending on health of guys like Nathan and Neshek (and depending on the effectiveness of loads of inexperienced pitchers).
This roster doesn't look too bad up front, but there are some serious holes, especially if anybody gets hurt or doesn't play well. It also assumes that, in a trade for Oswalt, none of these players are involved.
CF, Denard Span
C, Joe Mauer
1B, Justin Morneau
LF, Delmon Young
DH, Jason Kubel
RF, Michael Cuddyer
SS, J.J. Hardy
3B, Danny Valencia
2B, Alexi Casilla
Backup C: Jose Morales
Backup IF: Matt Tolbert
Backup IF: Trevor Plouffe
Backup OF: Rene Tosoni
SP: Roy Oswalt
SP: Francisco Liriano
SP: Scott Baker
SP: Kevin Slowey
SP: Nick Blackburn
Closer: Joe Nathan
Set-Up: Jose Mijares
Set-Up: Anthony Slama
Mid Relief: Pat Neshek
Mid Relief: Kyle Waldrop
Mid Relief: Alex Burnett
Long Relief: Brian Duensing
For my money, I'd rather spread the money around to deepen the squad. Pavano will be out of our price range in this philosophy, but Hudson might be affordable if he's realistic. Otherwise, there are options. Jorge Cantu, Juan Uribe or Felipe Lopez in the infield, bring back Guerrier for the bullpen and focus on an affordable starting pitcher...there will be plenty out there. Getting them all on one-year deals also guarantees that there will be masses of millions coming off the books going into 2012.
The real question, ultimately, is where the Twins can get the most value for the $5 to $15 million that's available to them. Also, with Oswalt demanding that his eventual destination guarantee his 2012 option, it isn't realistc that he's the answer.
2010 isn't a problem. Minnesota could afford him financially this year if they were willing to deal Houston the prospects they asked for. But the organization would still need to find a way to pay him in '11 and '12. If that's not responsible, then it shouldn't happen.
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Good stuff. Helpful to see it all laid out.
I guess my only thought is, if we send Cuddyer to Houston, we would be able to absorb what Oswalt is asking for. I enjoy Cuddy’s boyish charm as much as anyone, but I do not in any way think he is as valuable as his pricetag. If we could swap one for the other and throw in a prospect, I’d be damn tempted.
I always loved that one.
Then we lose a bat
And the one guy we use as a sub for Morneau.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
Minnesota Twins 2010: GAME 163 OR BUST!!!
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jul 21, 2010 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes,
BUT….we are paying him WAAAAAY too much money. I mean, I agree, I just disagree is all.
I always loved that one.
*Twins?
Souhan in Chinese! : "一會兒，德爾蒙楊想與他無關的隊友。不想讓他們打他。難道不希望他們偷了他的頭盔。不希望他們成為他的Facebook的朋友。"
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Jul 21, 2010 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions
*Twins:
I think that would be plugging up one hole by creating another hole.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
Minnesota Twins 2010: GAME 163 OR BUST!!!
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jul 22, 2010 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Zinged.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
Minnesota Twins 2010: GAME 163 OR BUST!!!
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jul 22, 2010 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Why would Houston want Cuddyer (and his salary)?
They’re interested in trading players for prospects, not swapping the contracts of thirty somethings.
The idea of getting Dan Haren is starting to grow on me
I really think he’d step it up for a team in the hunt
If only Arizona would lower their asking price…
"Baseball is the only major sport that appears backward in a mirror" ~George Carlin
by thewild_viking_twins on Jul 21, 2010 8:28 PM EDT reply actions
Haren's a little cheaper
but not that much, owed $12.75M next year and 2012 with a $15.5M ($3.5M buyout) club option for 2013. But he’s more valuable than Oswalt IMO.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 22, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Supposedly Oswalt wants his 2012 option (16 million) picked up
before he will agree to a trade. No way the Twins should agree to that.
+1
That’s what the Oswalt camp is saying. No waiving the no trade clause until his option is guaranteed. So double “no thanks” on Oswalt.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 22, 2010 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
As for me
sign Hardy, Valencia will be fine at 3b, with Manship, Swarzak and Gibson waiting for a start we’ll be fine with starters. Fox,Slama and Waldrop will take care of relief pitching and Revere will be pushing for a spot in the outfield. Looks good to me.
You have to remember that warm minor league bodies doesn't always equal production.
And that’s the problem with trading for Oswalt, not to mention handicapping your spending in 2011 and 2012.
nor do hasbeens cast off from other teams.
I don’t think we need Oswalt. Steady as she goes. I think in the long run we are fine. I trust the Minor League pipeline -Valencia,Hughes,Manship,Swarzak,Waldrop,Fox,Burnett,Plouffe,Gibson,Guerra,Benson,Revere
by b1 on Jul 21, 2010 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Your right, that came out wrong
I don’t want castoffs so-so pitchers from other teams and I don’t think we can afford Oswald (Oswald isn’t a Hasbeen) He would fall under a major deal.
by b1 on Jul 22, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Rochester has been losing like crazy
Those guys can’t beat AAA teams, let alone compete in the AL Central.
Over valuing our own prospects
It’s fine to depend on a couple rookies at the MLB level, if one works out there are options. But signing Oswalt would mean we may have to depend on 4-5 rookies next year. No thanks.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 22, 2010 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Good Post!
I personally want every player you mentioned back but Jon Rauch and Punto. Joe Nathan should be back and ready to dominate as the best closer in the game as he has done the past 5 seasons. Also I hope they find away to keep Pavano!
I worry about sugery
we’ll see if Slama can hack it. It might take half of next year for Nathen to come back.
by b1 on Jul 21, 2010 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions
True But
I got high hopes lol !!! Joe is working hard! It shouldnt be as hard to come back being a releiver then a starting pitcher! Lets all just pray he comes back the same!!!!!!!
by Fantasy Master on Jul 21, 2010 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Two trades might make more sense than one.
It’s hard for me to believe that there wouldn’t be a market for Oswalt after the end of the year, even with his option taken. If he agrees to accept two trades in return for having the option picked up, it could be workable. I don’t expect Cliff Lee magic where we get back better prospects than we sent, but it should be possible to make the price reasonable.
I just came back to this post to say the same exact thing
I’m interested to see what kind of market he has in the off season.
This is an ok idea
but the problem is he’s no Cliff Lee on two fronts. One, he’s a very good pitcher but not nearly to the level Cliff Lee is. On top of that Cliff Lee had a very team friendly contract which I think is why 3 different teams have surrendered solid prospects for him. Oswalt is probably signed to a fair deal, you’re not getting him on the free agent market for 2 years 30 million this off season. The per year price is probably good but he would likely get a 4 to 5 year deal.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
About Punto and options...
Jesse, you’d seriously be shocked if they picked up Punto’s option? Really? Or you’re just joking around? The management loves the guy and so does Gardy. I’d be shocked if they didn’t pick it up, to be honest.
"I don't think it's nice, you laughin'. See, my mule don't like people laughing. He gets the crazy idea you're laughing at him. Now if you apologize, like I know you're going to, I might convince him that you really didn't mean it . . ."
by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on Jul 21, 2010 9:32 PM EDT reply actions
Not that I want them to pick it up...in fact, I'd loathe it.
"I don't think it's nice, you laughin'. See, my mule don't like people laughing. He gets the crazy idea you're laughing at him. Now if you apologize, like I know you're going to, I might convince him that you really didn't mean it . . ."
by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on Jul 21, 2010 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions
punto vs hudson
at that price, Punto would cost almost the same as Hudson. Would they really pass on hudson to keep Punto? wait, dont answer that. It was a rhetorical question!
I am scared of the answer actually...
"I don't think it's nice, you laughin'. See, my mule don't like people laughing. He gets the crazy idea you're laughing at him. Now if you apologize, like I know you're going to, I might convince him that you really didn't mean it . . ."
by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on Jul 21, 2010 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Fools.......
I would sign Hudson in a minute for $6.5-7 million instead of giving Punto $5.
Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!
I would be shocked.
This team has had no issues with letting franchise longstays go when necessary, and Punto isn’t on the level of a Hunter, Guardado, Koskie, Hawkins, Guzman, Santana, Silva, etc. For what he provides, there are less expensive options in-house, and with the ‘11 payroll stacking up the way it does the front office will be wise enough to clear space where it’s smart.
I was shocked before the 2009 season
when we signed Punto to a 2 year deal plus an option, apparently bidding against ourselves. Then this year we signed Harris for two years for some reason. So nothing would surprise me at this point with Punto.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 22, 2010 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
There's no way there going to go after Oswalt anyway IMHO...
it’s not in the Twins’ make-up.
"I don't think it's nice, you laughin'. See, my mule don't like people laughing. He gets the crazy idea you're laughing at him. Now if you apologize, like I know you're going to, I might convince him that you really didn't mean it . . ."
by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on Jul 21, 2010 9:34 PM EDT reply actions
should spend more
I really don’t see how they could justify spending less than 120M, with this cash cow of a stadium. doesen’t mean i’m confident they will. But 105M, man, that would really be cheap
They should spend more
However, Jesse’s point in this post is that it would cost the Twins 26.5 million to keep Roy Oswalt through 2012. Now I do know that he is a good pitcher, but that is a ton of money for anybody.
Freein' up funds.......
Would Pavona sign with the Twins for a decent dollar, 2 years $15 million plus an option year, perhaps? WOuld that be too much of a gmable?
I say figure out a way to move Baker and Blackburn and free up that salary.
You then have Pavano, Liriano, Slowey. You have added Oswalt but subtracted the payroll for Blackie and Baker, and could still keep Ossie for 2012 with what you freed up for Blackie/Baker 2012.
Hope that someone — Duensing, Manship, Swarzak, Bromberg, Gibson steps up and is the next big thing for the rotation.
Tomorrow, I would be shopping Rauch if you can get another outing out of him. Getting 1.5 prospects today is better than no prospects in the fall. I doubt the Twins would risk offering him arbitration. Hey, trade him to the Yankees who need middle relief.
The Twins need to keep one of two, Crain or Guerrier. That’s a tough decision, and one would have to close for the remainder of the season. I still think the prospect of Nathan being closer to begin 2011 is nill.
But, the Twins have the Slama, Neshek, Waldrop factor setting up here in the wings, plus a body or two from the 5th starter losing race.
What kind of arbitration win would Perkins get (and he’s in year one…just missed last season). Even Neshek…would either make the jump from half-a-mill to even $750,000 after spending the season in the minors?
I’m sure the Twins could work out another $800,000 contract with Condrey.
A decision ash to be made on Casilla. Tolbert too, I guess. And Hughes. Do they keep any of them or hope that Plouffe, gardenhire (arrgh), Dinkelman etc. are backups.
If the Twins could egt some mileage out of Morales, he could be apckaged and the Twins could just stay with a Butera, again. Or pick up Coste or one of the other catchers on the rubber during the off-season.
I’m game for adding Oswalt. I don’t think Baker and Blackburn are the future for the Twins…just #3 or 4 or even 5 guys. Sadly. They could be afforable as tradebait for something.
Hell, Twins, trade Revere, Swarzak, Hermsen and Tosoni to the Mets for Johann and let’s be done with it!
Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!
Trading Rauch right now doesn't make sense
We wouldn’t get anything, we’d be selling low. Same with Baker and Blackburn. Maybe someone would buy low on Baker, but even then we probably don’t get much beyond a salary dump. Don’t know if anyone would take Blackburn at all.
Souhan in Chinese! : "一會兒，德爾蒙楊想與他無關的隊友。不想讓他們打他。難道不希望他們偷了他的頭盔。不希望他們成為他的Facebook的朋友。"
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Jul 22, 2010 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions
I was thinking just the opposite
I think Rauch has the most value he’s ever had right now. But I wouldn’t trade him. Slama is to unknow, due to the fact we didn’t call him up last Sept!
by b1 on Jul 22, 2010 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's the Rub
I know that Jon Rauch isn’t Joe Nathan, but he would be the answer to many teams on the free agent market in the fall. He would easily be the subject of a bidding war between two or three teams in the majors provided Marioana Rivera retires at the end of the season. Even if Rivera doesn’t retire and resigns with the Yankees, there will still be a good bump in salary for Rauch. The only thing that stops him from getting a major raise, is if he decides to retire or gets injured.
After the season's over, sure
I think Rauch has a lot of value then. But right now he’s in the middle of a slump, making it a bad time to trade him if that’s why we decided to trade him.
Souhan in Chinese! : "一會兒，德爾蒙楊想與他無關的隊友。不想讓他們打他。難道不希望他們偷了他的頭盔。不希望他們成為他的Facebook的朋友。"
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Jul 23, 2010 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions
And that slump is
Because Jon Rauch hasn’t gotten a whiff of action outside of retiring one batter vs the White Sox and then seeing Jesse Crain getting the save out of a situation he created. The current starting staff will do that to you. Pavano is pitching very weil and Liriano is out of his slump, but Baker, Slowey, and Blackburn are causing losses, and that is not the terrority for a pitcher such as Jon Rauch.
On the related note, hopefully he pitches better tonight if called upon.
Too many assumptions
I can’t say if you’re wrong or right. But I do know you’re basing your assumptions of what the Twins will probably do based on a team making its revenue off the Metrodome. The Twins are now one of the best revenue generating teams in the league and as long as they stay reasonably competitive, you can’t just assume that a $115-125 million payroll is completely out of the question.
Payroll is a function of revenue.
But good post, nonetheless.
No, it's not based off the 'Dome.
2010 payroll is based off what the Twins expect to make in revenue in 2010. Unless they are underestimating, in millions, what their revenue will be then I do think it is unreasonable to expect the organization to go above $120 million.
Then explain to me..
How the White Sox, who average about what the Twins pulled in at the Dome yet have the national TV deal, can easily afford a $105 million payroll. The Tigers average just over 30k in attendance and have no such TV deal yet their payroll is $122m. Yet somehow even though the Twins are killing it in attendance and have one of the larger TV audiences in the league, yet $115 million is out of the question?
I’m not playing ‘gotcha’, I just seriously do not understand. I want to get numbers on who is generating what revenue, but I’m coming up short. I have to believe that the Twins are pulling in about as much as the Angels are this year. Is it possible that 2010 revenue was underestimated?
It's definitely possible that they were "playing it safe".
Especially with the rumors over the last 24 hours about the Twins being “in” on Oswalt and Haren. The Twins wouldn’t make a big move like that if it wasn’t responsible.
Otherwise, I’m not sure what to say…we’d have to go back and look at Forbes to see what revenues were. I think merchandising had something to do with it, and I know the Twins were pretty heavily subsidized through revenue sharing.
The thoughts I have on it come from the conversation I had with Rob Antony in the spring. Things could certainly have changed since then.
Tigers, White Sox and Twins
Forbes has a good site for team values, revenues and expenses. Because all of the revenue numbers are from the previous year, we can’t really use the Twins $162M total revenue before opening Target Field. But we can look at Chicago and Detroit.
Chicago’s revenues have remained pretty flat the past three years, $193M, $196M and $194M, against player expenses (payroll, benefits, bonuses) of $108M, $126M, $113M, and they have averaged around $24M net operating income per year. So Chicago can easily afford the payroll, if not an extra $10-20M if they needed to make a push.
Detroit is in a MUCH less healthy situation. Their 3-year revenue was $173M, $186M and $188M while their player expenses jumped up from $107M to $148M and $151M the last two years. This resulted in a $5M profit turning into $26M and $29M losses the past two years, one reason we saw the Tigers make a move toward younger, cheaper players this offseason.
So Chicago may be a decent comparison, depending on where the Twins revenue ends up this year. But comparing to Detroit’s payroll is a bad idea since they’re in a tough spot.
For comparison, the last three years the Twins had revenues of $149M, $158M, $162M against player expenses of $81M, $80M and $83M and profits similar to Chicago. Obviously we saw a healthy jump in payroll this season, it will depend on how much additional revenue we see from Target Field.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 24, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
The 2012 money isn't the problem
It’s all about 2011, if the Twins decided they were just going to spend a bit more in 2011 they could realistically go after a guy like Haren or Oswalt. ( I definitely prefer Haren)
In 2012 Cuddyer, Nathan, and likely Kubel will all be on their way out come 2012. That would free up around 30 million with a few arbitration raises and guys like Baker, Blackburn, and Span’s salaries climbing a couple million each. I think at that point we’ll be able to replace Cuddyer and Kubel with guys like Joe Benson, Ben Revere, Parmelee, or maybe Tosoni. I think one of those guys will be able to come up and do a good job at a corner outfield and hopefully one will be a DH, if not there will likely be a Jim Thome type guy for a few million.
So the point being, I think it’s doable if the Twins are willing to commit to 2011 being a higher payroll year than normal kinda like 2007 was.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
great points
this is why i think the Twins should make a serious run at Fausto Carmona. He’s young, cheap (realitively), and good enough. Overpay Cleveland a little to get him, but he would be a nice addition to the Twins staff.
Trade from strength
I’d like to see the Twins go after Haren or Oswalt with a package of Kubel and a mid-level prospect with either the Astros or the Dbacks picking up around a quarter of the remaining salary. Or Kubel and top ten prospect with stros or Dbacks picking up atleast half of remaining salary.
The other team either gains a prospect (spare part or potential regular) , 2011 salary relief (worth around $7MM to $1MM) and a solid offensive regular that they can take for a trial run the rest of this year to see how he fits in their longterm plans (extend, option, or let walk to sign someone else).
The Twins could save just enough to get an arm for the playoff push & be a replacement for Pavano next year atleast.. after which you’d hope either Gibson, Guerra, or the field develops into a solid #2. Kubel is superfluous to the Twins if Morneau gets healthy.. which is probably a big reason this trade won’t happen. I’d rather be searching for a new DH come off season than a new pitcher though. I don’t see this trade working with a different OF though.. Twins just picked up Cuddyer’s extension, I’ve never seen them them trade so soon after making a commitment to a player… especially since its Cuddyer. I can’t see them selling on Delmon now either & honestly wouldn’t want them too now that we’re just starting to see results .
Offering Arbitration
If the Twins are at their payroll max after trading for Oswalt, would they feel comfortable offering arbitration to Pavano, Rauch, and Matty G?. Either you get a good player on a 1 year contract or draft picks, so it would be a big lost opportuninity to reload the minors.
It's almost too bad those guys are all Type A's
If Pavano continues someone would probably be willing to sacrifice a late 1st early 2nd rounder for him. The other guys, if they were type B’s it would be perfect. I think that both Rauch and Guerrier could get multi year deals but no one is going to want to give up picks for them.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
I'm also OK with letting Bullpen FA's walk
There are enough solid options ready or near ready in the system that there isn’t any reason to waste payroll bringing them back. I hate to see my man Matty G go, but between Slama, Waldrop, Mijares, Burnett, Duensing, and Manship and a flier on a veteran or a LOOGY that the Twins can build a solid above average pen on the cheap for the next few years. Especially if Neshek gets back to form.
Bullpen on the cheap
I think we may be in a position to let Crain, Guerrier and Rauch go next year. But it would be risky. Would Nathan be able to close? Who becomes the primary 8th inning guy? I think we have solid arms ready to step in, but I could see us keeping at least one of the three as a hedge against Nathan.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 22, 2010 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Oswalt is a solid #1 starter.
Those guys don’t come cheap. Blackburn’s already in trouble & Baker needs to step it up if he is going to be around. That’s half of Oswalt’s money right there. I keep hearing that this new stadium is a pitcher’s park. Well then get some pitching. 130 million for next years team is not unreasonable. This new stadium should stay very busy for awhile. Hey I know the new will wear off but revenues are good and they will stay good if we are winning. Oswalt for a couple of years would keep us in the hunt. We can stand pat but if this team starts heading south in the coming years so will the revenues. That extra 20 million you are saving now will be a bargain if this team is 10 games out going into September in the coming years. I know we have a good fan base but people come to see their team win. How many times are you going to keep dropping your $100 just to see them lose. Hey It’s a lot more fun walking out of that stadium after a win. That’s just the cold hard facts.
Perkins won't be eligible for arbitration...
…if he doesn’t get any service time this year. You will recall that he and the Twins had a hassle last year in which he was granted extra service time but a few days short of what would qualify for arbitration. Assuming that the level for arbitration stays the same, he would only be eligible if he were on the Twins roster for 5-10 days this year. All indications are that there are some burned bridges here and it is unlikely we will see him called up this year…although he has pitched much better the last several weeks.
Wasn’t there a thing with his spring training injury that he had to start the season on the major league DL? I think he did pick up those few days.
He has the same service time he did when he was optioned to AAA last September
He was optioned to AAA in spring training. Any DL time he has had was AAA DL time.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Out of options
and I suspect if Perkins isn’t called up at some point this year he’ll be left unprotected for the Rule 5 draft.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 22, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
What we need
What we need is for our pitchers to perform like their projections and career norms. Nothing more. If they don’t, picking someone up won’t help.
To me, it all falls on Baker/Slowey/Blackburn/Duensing to find a way to become league average 3-4-5 pitchers. At the beginning of the year, we were hoping to have 5 SP, where our #1 would be below average, and our #2-#5 would be above average. That hasn’t been the case at all. All 5 have been below average, #3-#5 significantly so.
Liriano and Pavano have
been below average? Compared to whom? Lee, King Felix, Clay Bucholz??…..who?
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
Wow
Compared to the Yankees, maybe.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Are we even in the running for Oswalt?
I haven’t seen a single rumor…who are we in the running for anyway? MLB Trade Rumors is pretty quiet about the Twins.
The beard abides.
by Jason Kubel's Beard on Jul 22, 2010 10:17 AM EDT reply actions
MLB Trade Rumors
is usually pretty quiet about the Twins. The Twins work behind closed doors generally.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
This is certainly true.
It’s also possible Oswalt doesn’t want to come here. I read somewhere that he has a short list of teams he will play for. Perhaps he doesn’t want to pitch in the AL.
I’m not interested in Oswalt unless the Twins either don’t pick up his option or Houston kicks in some serious $$$.
I know for sure he said he didn't want to go to Chicago or Detroit
but I never heard anything about not coming to MN.
The Pavstache will own you.
To be fair, Oswalt's name has only come up in speculation...and nowhere credible.
Just another one of those pitchers who “could be a target for the Twins”.
Pitching, Pitching, Pitching
Tampa Bay….57 wins payroll $71.9M this year
San Diego…. 55 wins $37.8M this year
What do they have in commom? Top 5 MLB in ERA. Excellent closer, set-up guy, starting pitching.
The Twins a little over .500. 17th MLB team ERA.
Questionable set-up guy, questionable closer, questionable starters, except one, who will probably not be here next year.
Okay 2 Starters
I still remember his start against Detrot a couple of weeks ago…1 and 2/3 IP 7ER.
Kind of a big game at the time.
everyone is going to have a bad outing at some point
but if anything, liriano is above and beyond anyones realistic expectations!
by twinscrazy_german on Jul 22, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I might have been a little harsh on the old boy…I still think he’s kind of questionable in a big game. Yankee Stadium in the playoffs anyone?
And Blackburn's been very good in "big games" in the past
But you don’t want him, as he is right now, starting any important game at all, right?
If I'm not wrong I think S.D. is also best
at RISP. but you’r right about Pitching. But, who saw this collapse comming. I was hopeing Slowey and Baker might get 17 wins each.
by b1 on Jul 22, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree
Baker, Slowey, Blackburn should have improved this year not take step backward.
Nathan has been on the decline the last 2 years at the end of the season.
Detroit gets Val Verde and Tampa gets Soriano.
We probaly have the worst set-up/closer in the Central Div.right now.
Although I’m sure Chicago is saying the same thing about Jenks.
baker and slowey
were projected to be 3+ WAR players for us before this season….
come on guys, get out of that damn funk please?
by twinscrazy_german on Jul 22, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Depth
The take in this well-done post is that the Twins should shy away from Oswalt and pursue depth instead of a true #1 starting pitcher. I think that has been the Twins’ philosophy over the last decade or so. They draft and develop control pitchers, who tend not to develop into aces. This philosophy has worked to the extent that the Twins have had success in winning what has been one of the weakest divisions in baseball, despite having two legit MVP candidates, an above-average offense generally and a traditionally strong bullpen.
For the Twins to move past a perennial first-round exit, they need an ace. To have an ace, they need to pay for an ace. For a true #1, which Oswalt is, he’s priced about right.
I’m also intrigued by the trade Cuddy idea. We have depth in the OF with Young, Span and Kubel.
Maroon and Gold Headquarters: The Daily Gopher
trade cuddy? not now
apart from being the backup morneau,
having “depth” with 3 OF as you say, isnt exactly depth. injury to any one of those and you have to fill in someone who isnt quite ready to play in the MLB yet… which could potentially be devastating for our quest to get a playoff win
by twinscrazy_german on Jul 22, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
We do have depth!
J. Jones and Repko both has Major League experience. I feel Revere could fill in at LF right now. Martin has looked good and Dinkelman seems to be a good hitter. Plus we could pick up and outfielder in the of season.
by b1 on Jul 22, 2010 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd gamble on Revere as a 4th OF next year if he finishes strong this season.
But I wouldn’t pull for him now.
I over reached
but the point was that we do have depth if we were to Trade Cuddy for a starting pitcher.
by b1 on Jul 23, 2010 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions
I would love Oswalt but....
Don’t see it. As Jesse says above we have 8 guys signed at roughly $73M next year.
Oswalt would make it $89M with 16 guys to sign, including vitually the entire bullpen.
I would love to have a #1 starter…but I am wondering with the payroll for next year…should the Twins be buyers or sellers this year? (sound of rioters grabbing their pitchforks)
Pavano, Hudson, Thome could be traded since they are most likely gone in 2011.
There would be mass rioting if they did that but…Mauer/Morneau take up roughly 37% of the payroll for next year.
Hard to trade Nathan, Cuddyer due to surgery,age and salary.
There is going to be probably 6 or 7 guys who either are in Rochester now or were there some time this year on the Twins next year as Jesse laid out.
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