Well played, Mauer. (In defense of The Bunt)
by Twins4Life on Jul 21, 2010 6:30 PM EDT
Email
PrintI am getting a little bit tired of the incessant bickering about Joe Mauer's bunt attempt in Tuesday nights game, so I would like to share my opinion on why I think Joe did the right thing.
The Situation
Orlando Hudson just drove in the tying run, giving us runners at first and second with one out. Joe Mauer steps to the plate, Mr. MVP, and lays down a bunt. He moves the runners up a base, but is thrown out at first in the process. This gives us runners at second and third with two out and Jason Kubel up to bat.
My initial reaction was of shock. I couldn't believe that our MVP would sacrifice himself with one out in the inning. I was waiting for the big hit, driving one or two in and taking the lead.
But then I looked at it a bit closer.
The Reason for the Bunt
First of all, let's be very clear here, because I think there are a lot of people who are making this mistake.
Joe Mauer was bunting for a HIT. He was not just attempted to make a sacrifice bunt. That makes a big difference.
Now let's look at some numbers, since I know everyone here likes the numbers.
According to the Run Expectancy Matrix for the 1999-2002 data, the Twins were expected to score .971 runs in the inning (plus the one that already scored, obviously) at the point of Joe Mauer's at-bat, with runners on first and second with one out. The run expectancy for bases loaded with one out, which is what it would be if Mauer was successful with his bunt-hit attempt? 1.65. Clearly would have been a good result, right?
Not convinced yet?
Mauer came in to the game with 29 bunt-hit attempts in his career. He was successful in 19 of those attempts. By my math, that gives Mauer roughly a 65% chance of successfully making it to first base on the bunt. Especially because the third basemen was playing back.
On the other hand, Mauer's batting average for the 2010 season is around .295. That gives him a 29.5% chance of getting a hit. And a 36.7% (.367 OBP) chance of reaching safely.
You can see the odds of the bunt were clearly better.
Need more?
Mauer is leading the team by grounding into 17 DP's. According to FanGraphs, Mauer has grounded into a DP in 23% of all of his opportunities to do so this year. So there is a 23% chance that he ends the inning if he swings away, and then Kubel never gets an opportunity with RISP. Kubel, by the way, has only grounded into 9 DP's this year. Pretty low for our team.
Still not enough?
Kubel came into that game batting 4 for 7 off of Perez with 2 doubles. Clearly, Kubel is pretty comfortable against the guy. He had a good chance of driving in a couple runs even after Mauer was out at first.
Conclusion
I honestly believe the bunt was a smart play for the situation. If I am missing something, feel free to point it out and rip my argument apart. But the way I see it, if Mauer swings away in that situation, there are a bunch of different things that can happen. He might drive in some runs, he might strike out, he might end the inning with a double play. If he bunts, he has a 65% chance to load the bases with one out for a hitter who has had good success against the pitcher on the mound. The worst that could happen (reasonably) is what did happen. But you still are giving Kubel a shot with two runners in scoring position against a pitcher he can hit well. Neither of those are terrible outcomes. A DP or a K would have been much worse.
Also, let's not forget, Mauer said he hasn't been feeling too comfortable at the plate lately. He was trying to make something happen when he's not swinging the bat as well as he has in the past. Always looking for the heads up play. I think that is pretty admirable.
137 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
under the not convinced section
you give us his bunt success rate for his career and compare it to his batting average for just this year…
this isn’t apples and apples right? I could be wrong but it feels like an example of numbers can prove your point if you try hard enough.
He made a mistake....
leave it at that. He is human, he tried something, it didn’t work, move on. Not sure why so much is being made of it, but thanks for trying. Even Tim Laudner said it was just a mistake and that Joe probably regretted it. He has learned and will probably (hopefully) never do it again.
Good post
So it’s a mistake just because Tim Laudner said so? At least this is a well-reasoned analysis, whether you agree or not.
I thought it was a bad idea
Joe Mauer disagrees with me. I think if he had pulled it off, we’d be talking about a what a great play it was, but that’s the difference between success and failure sometimes.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
Minnesota Twins 2010: GAME 163 OR BUST!!!
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jul 21, 2010 8:28 PM EDT reply actions
Indeed
giving up an out is usually never a good idea unless you’re trying to score one run, but i can see where mauer was coming from. i highly doubt that he knew how effective he was bunting for hits, and i’d have faith in him to get it down the line enough for him to get to first in time.
I still think Mauer should be credited with a sacrifice hit.
If a player gets robbed of a home run, and the runner on 3rd scores, he still gets a sacrifice fly.
What if Mauer just jogged to 1st base? Would they give him a SH then?
It was obvious he was going
for the “bunt for hit”. If he wanted to sacrifice, he would have bunted it right back to the pitcher (which he basically did). The position of the bat tells the official scorer what the intention was.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
No
He’s the reigning MVP. The winning run is in scoring positiion. Swing away.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
+1
You don’t bunt with as good a bat as Mauer in that situation. Even if he’s cooled down this season he’s still a good hitter.
Souhan in Chinese! : "一會兒，德爾蒙楊想與他無關的隊友。不想讓他們打他。難道不希望他們偷了他的頭盔。不希望他們成為他的Facebook的朋友。"
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Jul 21, 2010 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions
To get on base, yes, to drive in runs, not so much
I can’t recall a guy scoring from second on a bunt single. Maybe if the ball is thrown away down the right field line, but that is a rare play.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Can you recall...
Any runs scoring when a team has the bases loaded and 1 out and a guy at the plate who likes to put the ball in the air?
That takes two good at bats
I’m talking about getting it done with one good at bat. And, if Mauer singles to the outfield, you have a run in and runners on the corners with one out and Kubel up.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I see your point.
But I still see it as a smart play, because it’s a high percentage chance to get the bases loaded and one out for Kubel, and I would think we have a great chance of scoring in that situation.
Part of playing the game smart is knowing your own abilities and limitations. Maybe Mauer felt like he didn’t have a good chance of getting the ball in the air on the play, and wanted to make sure he wasn’t going to end the inning and not even give Kubel a chance.
Not high percentage
The Twins’ average on bunt attempts for a hit this year is below .100. Mauer said he thought he had a better chance because the lefty throws a cutter down and away. He also said he failed to execute because he got the ball off the end of the bat. Well, of course he did. It was a cutter, moving away from him. That pitch is also perfect for one of his patented line drives to left field. The difference is, a line drive off the end of the bat is a hit. A bunt off the end of the bat is an out.
I could see it with nobody on, or as a sacrifice with nobody out. But with one out and fast runners on first and second, you want your number 3 hitter to drive them in with one swing of the bat, especialy later in the game with the winning run in scoring position.
Ask 10 baseball men about that play, and all 10 would say it was a dumb play. By baseball men, I mean guys like TK, who have been around the game a long time.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
The Twins average on bunt attempts this year.
And Mauer hasn’t bunted all year. Is it fair to say that he was doomed to fail because other Twins batters haven’t had much success? Or would it be more appropriate to look at Mauer’s average on bunt attempts? Like I said, he has been successful 65% of the time. That’s high percentage in my book.
showing my lack of stats understanding
“Is it fair to say that he was doomed to fail because other Twins batters haven’t had much success?”
it seems like this is similar to saying he would succeed b/c he’s been able to bunt for a hit in previous years… maybe success in previous attempts during the same season but success in previous seasons doesn’t fill me w/ 65% confidence…
Put Mauer on a team with 8 Jim Thome's.
Should Mauer base his game on what the 8 Jim Thome’s have accomplished this year? Or should he look at what he himself has been able to do in his career?
I’m saying looking at Mauer’s attempts in his career is a much better indicator of what he is able to do this year than looking at what the team has done so far. Mauer is a smart guy. He knows what he is able to do. And with the third basemen playing back, he was taking what was given to him.
I never said it was doomed, just not high percentage
A sac bunt might be high percentage, but a bunt for a hit is a tougher play than many people think. I only used the other bunters because, if anything, they have a better chance of beating out a bunt hit (Span, Hudson, Punto, Casilla, Tolbert) than the catcher, who, by his own admission, is banged up.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Except that defenses play those players knowing they might bunt.
Look where the third baseman stands when Punto is up vs. where he was playing for Mauer’s attempt. If he had gotten it down the line a little further, it’s bases loaded for Kubel and everyone cheers for Mauer for making such a heads up play.
We're going to have to agree to disagree
In a risk/reward calculation, even supposing the risk is lower on a bunt than swinging away (which I’m not sure about) the reward was obviously greater.
Suppose he’s successful in the bunt attempt. Kubel’s ground out becomes a double play. Suppose he’s successful in the hit attempt, we score the winning run. It’s that simple.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
This is the kind of speculation that really can't be done.
Kubel is going to have a different approach at the plate if Mauer is successful. Instead of needing to get a hit, he is just going to look for something he can get in the air, deep enough to score a run.
And I don’t think it is right to judge Mauer’s decision on what happened after him. Mauer is not psychic (as far as I know). He didn’t know Kubel was going to ground out weakly to first.
You just did it
Your whole argument is based on counter-factual speculation. Namely, if Mauer is successful, it’s a lot easier to get the run home because all it takes is a sac fly.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
No, it's all probability
I think swinging away in that case is more likely to succeed than bunting. You think the opposite.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
But what no one has done
is explained WHY swinging away gives you better chances in that situation. The closest we have had is the argument that it takes two batters instead of one. But looking at Kubel’s numbers against the pitcher and all of the other stats I have mentioned, it’s tough to back up. Like I said there would have to be less than a 45% chance of a run scoring with bases loaded and one out and Kubel at the plate in order for the bunt to be a statistically bad play. And looking at the Run Expectancy of 1.65 for bases loaded and one out, not even taking into consideration that Kubel has good numbers against the pitcher, it’s hard to argue that there is less than a 45% chance of scoring a run.
Not convinced
Ask 10 baseball men about that play, and all 10 would say it was a dumb play. By baseball men, I mean guys like TK, who have been around the game a long time.
Those guys also think pitching wins, batting average, and RBI are the most useful stats. Just because they all (maybe) agree on something doesn’t mean that they’re right.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Wow
Mr. stats thinks bunting is the better play? Ask 10 sabermatricians (Bill James, Rob Neyer, etc.) and they will all say bunting was a dumb play
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
HE WAS BUNTING FOR A HIT
Sabermetricians don’t have any problem with bunting – they don’t like sacrifices, and most bunts are sacrifices (which is probably where you got the idea that they don’t like bunts). No one had a problem with Brett Butler bunting his way on base all the time, and it was not a bad thing when Carlos Gomez managed to actually find his way to first base thanks to a bunt.
I’m going to say that I’m not entirely convinced that Mauer made the right decision, although I think it’s certainly arguable (especially after having learned his career bunt hit success rate). My post was mostly objecting to your “Appeal to Authority” argument, as I’m long past the point where I find “baseball men say so” to be at all persuasive.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Bunting for a hit in that circumstance is a low percentage play
Presumably, sabermatricians don’t like low percentage plays. That’s where I got the idea that Bill James would think it was a dumb play.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
because it takes two good at bats...
…it is half as likely to succeed.
Even assuming a bunt single is easier than a swinging single and a sac fly is easier than a base hit, one swinging single is more likely than a bunt single and a sac fly.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Mauer’s career bunt success rate: 65%
Mauer’s chances of getting a hit without a bunt in 2010: 29.5%
This would mean that there would have to be less than a 45% chance of Kubel getting a hit, a sacrifice fly, weak grounder, or walk to score a run added with the chance that if Kubel doesn’t hit into a DP, that the batter behind him wouldn’t get a hit.
Based on the Run Expectancy Matrix, your chances are a lot better with the bases loaded and one out (1.65 runs) than with runners and first and second with one out (.971).
I covered this in the main post, but Mauer’s chances of getting a hit in that situation (29.5%) are only slightly better than his chances of ending the inning with a DP (23%).
Variables you did not take into account
Who’s pitching? Who’s on second? Who’s on deck? What are the platoon splits of the two hitters?
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
The beauty of the Run Expectancy Matrix
Is that it doesn’t depend on those variable. That the next hitter has good numbers against the pitcher and the runner on second is fast only makes Mauer’s play even smarter.
Then I'm not convinced it's the right metric
IF Jim Thome is on second and Drew Butera is on deck, Mauer’s play has a different expectancy than with Denard Span on second and Jason Kubel on deck.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Of course it does.
What Run Expectancy does is average all of the situations together. But like I said, with a speedy runner on second and a hitter with good numbers against the pitcher due up, it makes Mauer’s play a smart one.
Not sure
Span on second can score on a hit to the outfield with one out. You wouldn’t send Jim Thome on anything but an Xtra base hit with one out.
Kubel is historically poor against lefties. If Cuddyer or Young are on deck, it changes my whole thinking. Mauer is much better against a lefty than Kubel, historically.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
But Kubel has better numbers against the pitcher on the mound.
And Span can score from 3rd base on a sac fly easier.
Kubel had faced him twice
He’s really struggled against lefties in his career.
You seem to think the bunt makes it automatic that it’s bases loaded and one out. Obviously it was not automatic. Like I said, it’s harder to get a bunt base hit and a sac fly than two chances at abase hit, especially for two left handed hitters facing a tough left handed pitcher.
But I obviously am not going to convince you of that. So I will let you win the argument. You win. I’m done.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I don't think it is automatic.
I have said several times that it was about a 65% chance for Mauer based on his career average on bunt attempts.
And Kubel has faced him 9 times with 7 official AB’s, 2 walks. 4 for 7 with 2 walks is pretty good numbers against a pitcher. Small sample size, yes, but still good numbers.
And I have also addressed the argument that it is harder to get the bunt hit and the sac fly.
If I am not communicating something properly or if I am missing something else that you are saying, then please let me know. I don’t believe anyone “wins” or “loses” this argument, because there are good points on both sides. I just like good, honest baseball debate.
Honestly
I don’t want Joe Mauer even thinking about who is batting behind him in that situation. I want him to say “I am going to win this ballgame.”
Again, I prefer a player who thinks
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Jul 22, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
if he shouldn’t swing in this situation then who should?
it’s not like he had to hit a HR, he just needed a single to keep it going if nothing else… sorry but I just don’t see how bunting was the right way to go.
and I guess that makes it ok
but as someone else pointed out, he hadn’t bunted for a single all year, and maybe I’m wrong here but most times these attempts fail.
Mauer used to show alot more speed, bunting, stealing bases but this year it hasn’t been there.
I guess the % say otherwise but to me it felt like he was trying to out think the other team than just letting his natural ability get the job done.
This is all interesting to discuss but let’s face it guys, Mauer is our guy, especially with Morneau out. We need Mauer to get back on that horse and lead the Twins to more W’s so we can all enjoy more October baseball…
Of course he is.
And if he can make the other team play in a couple steps because they know he can bunt, it’s just going to open more holes that he can shoot the ball through.
Great argument
You are obviously a smart guy—and I know that Joe knows baseball—so why is it such a crime that he TRIED something that he thought might work. People are so quick to judge Joe because he is not putting up the INCREDIBLE numbers that he had last year. Twins fans are lucky to have a player of his caliber on our team.
Not exactly
I wish he was still putting up incredible numbers but he’s not. I don’t remember agreeing to never criticizing the guy so I don’t think there is a problem w/ people expressing their opinions.
But… he is possibly the best hitter the Twins have had in recent memory, even in this off year I’d want him at the plate in the situation he was in the other night. The problem I have is, that instead of swinging the bat, he chose to bunt… in my opinion it’s a sign of just how far his confidence has fallen.
How many batting titles do you need Joe before you believe you can get a single to drive in a run? Heck, he had just hit a double the AB before…
If the bunt was successful
Would you still be this upset?
He tried to load the bases for Kubel. It didn’t work. Even a standard single isn’t guaranteed to score a run. But if you get a runner on third with one out and Kubel at the plate, I like our chances of scoring.
A little but not as much
Aside from a sacrafice fly that scores an out, I’m not thrilled at giving up an out to move guys over when you already have a runner in scoring position.
If no one was on 2B then ok, I get it but not in this situation. If his bunt was sucessful then great, but now the Twins need another hit to score…
I know
but like I said, I didn’t think he was going to be successful b/c he hasn’t shown any kind of speed in his game this year.
This was too important of a situation for him to hope it works out in my opinion.
Like someone else said, let’s hope that this play will force other teams to play in more so Mauer gets better D alignments in future games
If he had gotten it down the line and into the grass
There is no way he’s NOT safe at first, in my opinion.
This
With that shift on, speed is almost irrelevant – it’s the placement of the bunt that’s key.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Exactly.
If Thome could drop down a bunt on the third base line when they shift for him, he could probably leg it out. But bunting is not part of his game. It IS part of Mauer’s.
since when is bunting
part of Mauer’s game. Mauer has been in the majors 5 full years and has bunted about 30 times. Thus, 6 times a year. That is not part of somebody’s game.
If you said that bunting was part of Carlos Gomez, Nick Punto, or BJ Upton’s game, I would not argue; however, to make the claim that bunting is party of somebody’s game when he bunts only roughly 6 times a year, is preposterous!
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
I never made the claim that it is a LARGE part of his game.
But by definition, even 6 times a year is PART of his game. As opposed to someone like Jim Thome.
If it wasn’t part of his game, he would have 0 attempts. Or if he had any, he wouldn’t have a great success rate.
Mauer is batting .704 lifetime on bunts
He doesn’t do it that often — 30 times in his career (once a month).
Its just a way to beat the shift and keep the infielders honest for the rest of his plate appearances.
.704 is a high percentage play, but it means he’s going to look stupid 30% of the time.
I agree with it, but not in this case
The perfect time to mess with the shift is i the early innings with the bases empty.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Good post
this is exactly what I was trying to say yesterday, only I didn’t have all the numbers. If they continue to shift mauer, he should continue to bunt. Sometimes it will work, sometimes it won’t. It’s a good play because he’ll make it a high percentage of the time, and it will keep the third basemen closer, making it easier to hit in the future.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Jul 21, 2010 11:33 PM EDT reply actions
I'm not a sycophant
And I’m ok with the play. I think Joe Mauer is a good player, but people here love him a bit much. I really hate the assumption that every time something goes well, it is exactly what he was trying to do.
But, in this case, I’m ok with his play. First – the game was tied, so the goal was to get at least one run. He has had a GIDP problem, AND he is a pretty good bunter. In this case, making this play occassionally is smart because it probably doesn’t lower the odds of scoring a run, but it does keep defenses tighter in the future, increasing his hit rate on ground balls.
I’m not saying it was the “right” call, but it is a play you want to make from time to time with a good bunter – to keep the defense honest. If they were down by 2 runs, it would be completely different – maybe even if they were down by 1.
comparison
Kirby Puckett, circa 1991: “Get on my back boys!”
Mauer, circa this week: “I’ll let Kubel do it.”
Maybe
but it’s about attitude. Mauer is not getting paid the big cheddar to advance runners in that situation.
this horse is getting beat
but bunting for a hit wasn’t going to score a run, and I want Mauer in that situation to swing the bat and try to drive the winning run home. I prefer that over him getting an infield hit and loading the bases so someone else can try to bring in the run.
yes
he was bunting for a hit, which does not drive in runs in this situation, which is what he is paid more money than god to do. He is being paid to be an MVP-caliber run producer, not to get on first and hope someone else does it instead.
I'm pretty sure he is paid to be a baseball player.
And sometimes that means taking what the defense is giving you and making a heads up play. If you read the main post, you know that he was trying to put us in a better position to score. And that’s pretty smart, in my mind.
Smart?
Now you’ve elevated his bunt to “smart”? With a runner on second I never, ever want Joe Mauer to bunt. Ever.
If the bunt would have been successful, and then Kubel would have hit a grand slam, I still would say it was not the play Mauer should make.
Sounds like you are looking for Joe Carter Jr
Getting on base produces runs
A lot of talk about syncophants on this thread, but the “always blame the star when we lose” types are equally unfair.
+1
I for one will wait for Mauer’s next game to drink his bathwater or drag him over coals…
I just want this team to start winning games and get back to 1st place again. I don’t really care if that takes a bunt or swinging hit to do it.
I prefer the smart play over the cliche
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Jul 22, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm confused
Mauer getting thrown out at first was “smart” but Puckett making a huge catch and hitting a game-winning home run was not?
The only cliche here is playing little ball is a “smart play.”
Statistically speaking, he made a smart move to try to advance a runner to third base with one out and Kubel up. Obviously, the execution was the problem as he didn’t get enough bat on the ball and got thrown out. But we still had a good chance to score runs, where if Mauer hits into the DP (which I am not saying he would have, but he could have), the inning is over.
No one is saying anything bad about Kirby.
Dp's
They blow, but Mauer should not go to the plate worrying about hitting into a double play. Part of the reason he hits into double plays is that he hits the ball hard, giving the fielders time.
I’ve heard your argument, and you’ve stated it well, but I’m not convinced. You ever seen “12 Angry Men”? Even the Henry Fonda character admitted that the truth is impossible to find and they could be setting a murderer free (and the kid’s alibi was weak; his knife fell out of his pants?).
It isn't a choice between hitting a home run and getting thrown out on the bunt
it’s a choice between attempting a bunt, which gives you about a 60% chance of loading the bases, or swinging away, which gives you a 30% chance of scoring a run on that play. Overall, if you look at the percentages, it was the smart play.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Jul 22, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Ridiculous
If bunting was a 60% safe play, Mauer should do it every time he was up. Talk about small sample size.
If he did it every time he was up, the third basemen wouldn't play back
but I do think he should do it more often. It’s the fact that the media and fans think that only little guys with no power should bunt that keeps him from doing it more.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Jul 22, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
In that situation...
if I am the third basemen I cede Mauer the bunt and then laugh at his single. Better than then play in and take one off the teeth. If you haven’t noticed Mauer has been hitting rockets down the third base line lately.
I’m totally in favor of Mauer using all his weapons, but not with the go-ahead run at second.
And if I was Mauer and you were the third basemen.
I would happily get on base 60-70% of the time and let the guys in the order behind me drive me in.
yes
And I don’t want Mauer, the team’s best hitter, relying on the “other guys” to drive in the runs.
Wow
No. A bunt with no one on is hard to argue with. I’m only speaking to this type of situation. Late in game, go ahead run on.
I have no problem with him bunting with no one on. Especially with his power numbers this year. I think we can all agree we wish he could hit one or two over the fence in Target Field this year.
19 of 29 before that attempt.
Defenses will adjust if you were to do it all the time. Mauer is smart enough to know that it’s a smart play when the defense is giving it to you, as it was on Tuesday.
Mauer is leading the team by grounding into 17 DP’s
.
That’s the real reason he bunted. He said as much to reporters, that they’d be on him if he grounded into a DP. It was his lack of confidence that prompted him to bunt. That’s what bothers me more than anything.
Maroon and Gold Headquarters: The Daily Gopher
Agreed.
I think it is time Mauer changes his walk-up music. Clearly that is the problem.
Or maybe I am just tired of hearing “whatchu know about that, whatchu know about that, whatchu know about that..”
I like it!
Staying with Nelly, how about this one?
Nelly – #1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_HGSPpgBEo
His A&R song from last year was really good.
He needs to get back in touch with that guy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFxN4Sz4wEM
The Pavstache will own you.
also a good one
can he use the bat as a pimp cane as walks up the homeplate?
Come on Joe, it’s your world… or at least your state, we’re all rooting for you
Joe Mauer vs. Bill Belichick
I’m seeing parallels here between Mauer’s decision and Bill Belichick’s much-maligned decision to go for it on fourth down deep in his own territory against the Colts last season. Both Mauer and Belichick made a decision that went against their sports’ conventional wisdom, and traditionalists hammered them for it despite at least some evidence that it was statistically the correct decision (Belichick’s decision was praised by more unconventional and/or statistics-oriented folks like Gregg Easterbrook and Football Outsiders, while Twins4Life has made a good case for Mauer’s bunt here).
What I find interesting is the difference i what conventional wisdom dictates between the two sports. In Belichick’s situation, he was derided for being too aggressive, while Mauer was faulted for being too conservative. Traditional football strategy says that you should virtually never try to convert a fourth down in your own territory, no matter how close you are, and that punting is almost always the correct strategy on fourth down outside field goal range. Traditional baseball strategy (at least, as it’s being portrayed here) says that your run producers’ first job is driving in runs, and they should pursue that goal above all others, including getting on base.
Both those conventional strategies actually run counter to what stats experts now generally regard as basic ways to maximize overall scoring (assuming you believe, as Twins4Life argues here, that Mauer is more likely to reach base on a bunt than by swinging away). According to the statistical communities, the most fundamental way to maximize your scoring in baseball is to avoid making outs, while in football, it’s to maintain possession of the ball. Mauer took what he thought was his best shot to avoid making an out, while Belichick took his best shot to maintain possession of the ball.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Problem is...
in this situation the Twins don’t want Mauer to simply have the passive attitude of “avoiding an out,” and leave the rest to Kubel. They want Mauer to have a run-scoring hit, something he is very good at doing.
Mauer has always played that way
always taken the walk instead of extending the strike zone trying to get the game winning hit.
He’s putting the team before himself, a win before the glory.
I’ve always conteded that he’s been a more clutch player than Morneau over their careers. Mauer will take what’s given to him, and extend innings for other players. Morneau (especially early in his career) would go with the all or nothing approach, and either come up big or end the game.
The first hit (or walk) of a game winning rally is just as important as the last.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Jul 22, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
A walk...
is different than a bunt. No one is asking Mauer to expand his strike zone in that situation. But if he saw a strike, he should have swung at it instead of turning the responsibility over to Kubel.
Depends on if you are going for the glory or doing what is best for the team.
Like BeefMaster said in his comment, the best way to maximize overall team scoring is to avoid making outs.
I guess it comes down to what is more important. Winning the game, padding your own stats.
Yes
And a single TO THE OUTFIELD wins the game, or at least puts the Twins ahead. A double (something Mauer is also adept at) probably wins the game.
A bunt single pads Mauer’s stats and leaves it up to Kubel.
I don’t see how you can see the bunt as a selfless play.
Because it maximizes the team's chance of scoring.
And Kubel ends up (potentially) driving in the game-winning run instead of Mauer.
I don’t see how you can see the bunt as a selfish play.
No
I didn’t say it was selfish, I said it was foolish.
And since we are using small sample sizes such as Mauer’s bunt/hit percentage, need I remind you the Twins success rate with the bases loaded? The way that is going the team is better off never loading the bases (I jest).
Yes
I see it as a little flukey. It would probably rank among the all-time best?
Do you see his career .342 ba with RISP as flukey? They sample is much larger. I like that number more than the bunting stat.
I don't see either one as flukey.
And his career .342 BA with RISP would have gone up a tick if his bunt was successful.
But a 65% chance to move the runners up for Kubel with one out is still a higher percentage than 34% chance of getting a hit. And anyway you slice it, bases loaded with 1 out gives you a better chance to score than runners at 1st and 2nd with 1 out.
I go with the numbers that are available.
If it was 8-10 attempts that would be one thing. 30 attempts is still small, but it at least shows that he is a competent bunter. So I will continue saying it’s 65% until the numbers say something else.
In the same light, if any player was 19 for 29 career off of a pitcher, that isn’t considered a very small sample. That is a batter owning a pitcher.
Example.
Mauer is 14 for 20 off of Joel Pineiro. Try to tell me that you wouldn’t take that into consideration if we had a game coming up with Pineiro starting. I bet Butera wouldn’t be starting that day.
I should let this go...
and so should Mauer. But it seems you are saying that the 65% on bunts and 34% with RISP are equivalent, when one is a sample size of 30 and the other is hundreds of at-bats over many years. They are not the same. Not close.
Actually, I never said anything about them being equivalent.
I just said I go with the numbers that are available.
Again, that's about execution
not the decision
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Jul 22, 2010 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
To extend the football analogy
It’s like the difference between Tom Brady making a safe throw that gains four yards or Brett Favre throwing into coverage downfield. While the latter is certainly more exciting to watch, it’s arguable whether it’s actually better for the team.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
That is pretty much exactly what I was thinking of
Also the one in the NFC Championship Game a couple years ago with the Packers.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
I see the point
but last year it was hard for me to get mad at Farve after that pass. It sucks that it was picked off but you know that is Brett Farve, he’s going to take those chances to win.
Another DP would have sucked during that game but I wouldn’t have blamed Mauer for the effort. I would have just thought it wasn’t meant to be for that game.
The bunt for some reason just rubbed me the wrong way. I want the star of the team to go for it.
I want the star to make the smart play
Mauer did, Favre didn’t.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Jul 22, 2010 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
sadly it didn't work out for both of them
luckily it only cost the Twins a W in the season and not a chance to go to the World Series
I think it also parallels with LeBron passing at the end of a game to a wide open shooter
I don’t remember who the shooter was, or when it was, but I remember everyone making the same complaints they are here. If he’s the MAN he HAS to take that shot!
So, he should take a low percentage shot out of a double team instead of passing to a wide open team mate?
Same thing here. It was the higher percentage play to bunt, yet he is ridiculed because he is passing the buck. But he’s also giving Kubel a much better chance of succeeding, if he executes the play. If Mauer executes the bunt, Kubel only has to hit a fly ball to score the run. He might be passing it, but he’s giving his teammate a better chance of succeeding. That’s what THE MAN does, gives his team the best chance to win, no matter if he will be ridiculed for it later. Putting his teammate in a good place to succeed was absolutely what a team leader should do.
Now, that being said, he didn’t execute, which didn’t give Kubel the chance to hit a sac fly for the go ahead run. The problem here, was the execution, not the decision.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Jul 22, 2010 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Twinkie Town
Related FanShots on Twinkie Town
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Please hold: Indians’ Joe Smith jumps the gun on relief appearance
- Local radio host honors Cubs’ Tony Campana with parody song
- Roy Halladay bobblehead with glove on wrong hand selling on MLB.com
- Will Smith shows why making your big-league debut at Yankee Stadium is less than ideal
- Steinbrenners selling the Yankees? Family denies New York Daily News report
