Clutch hitting, fact or illusion?

by B.C. 4 MVP on Jul 29, 2010 6:27 PM EDT

This summer I decided to read the book Money Ball by Michael Lewis. For those few who are unfamiliar, it closely follows the actions of Oakland A's GM Billy Beane, and the startling success of the team during the early 2000's. Throughout the book the author points out that Billy Beane and friends figured out through statistical analysis that generally, old baseball wisdom was backwards and wrong, and used this knowledge to win games.

One belief that Beane had during the book was that "clutch hitting" was a myth. It was an interesting subject so I figured I would continue it here on Twinkie Town to try and see some points of view on the subject.

To lay out a framework on the discussion here, the disputed subject is not whether there is such thing as a "clutch hit," but whether a player has a talent or knack for "clutch hitting."

According to the Fangraphs stat "clutch," which i know nothing about, our top 3 clutch hitters are Delmon Young, Jason Kubel, and the one and only Joe Mauer.

Now it would be argued who our 3rd best plain hitter is, but it is undisputed that our top 2 are Mauer and Morneau.

Here is some situational hitting with Delmon:

( I don''t know how people usually format these so I will put it as AVG/OBP/SLG)

Bases empty: .295/.330/.480 Runners on: .375/.401/.619 RISP: .436/.453/.634

RISP with two outs: .370/.424/.574 Bases loaded: .400/.350/.533

Season: .334/.336/.548

This is interesting because you can see a noticeable jump in stats in all of the categories from bases empty to the others.

Now the same with Kubel:

Bases empty: .265/.311/.452 Runners on: .256/.365/.402 RISP: .260/.388/.390

RISP with two outs: .295/.446/.568 Bases loaded: .333/.368/.733

Season: .261/.340/.427

A small jump up in bases loaded.

And Finally Mauer:

Bases empty: .315/.373/.435 Runners on: .304/.380/.500 RISP: .315/.381/.483

RISP with two outs: .424/.500/.636 Bases loaded: .375/.300/.500

A big leap in RISP w/2 outs and bases loaded.

Of course there is major problems with these stats. For instance, these do not take into account whether it is a blowout or a world series game, but there are so many situational stats to look at it would become mind boggling to research them all. Another problem is that these players get way fewer at bats in clutch situations than they do in all other situations, meaning that one or two hits can skew averages greatly.

So Twinkie Town, do everyday players possess an ability to hit above their actual skill level just because it is a high pressure situation? Or are they just lucky that they're succeeding in fortunate situations, and if they got 1,000 at bats in those conditions they would produce numbers closer to their career numbers? Players today say it exists, but is it an illusion?

Poll

Does "clutch hitting" exist?

Yes

37 votes

No

7 votes

Other (explain in comments)

3 votes

47 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Players are likely to be better in situations with runners on

Because they are facing a pitcher that just let a bunch of runners get on base, and is therefore more likely to be a worse pitcher than one that pitches with the bases empty more often.

If you could filter that effect out somehow, it might be interesting to see how the stats differ.

by JonathanR on Jul 29, 2010 6:37 PM EDT reply actions

A lot of pitchers are worse out of the stretch than the windup, too

That confounds things as well.

by Hillstop on Jul 29, 2010 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions

That is true

And since it is true, hitting slightly better with runners on base doesn’t really become a skill. It’s just the norm. WPA is a decent way of looking at how “clutch” a player has been, but that doesn’t mean at all that they possess a special talent to hit better under those situations. I just can’t believe that something like that can exist.

by JTW on Jul 30, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think that was the point

The point was not that all batters perform differently with runners on base, that’s most certainly true.

The question is whether some players are better at it than others. Take two batters Cleon Clutch and Charlie Choker who have identical .280/.350/.450 carbatting lines, but one of them “comes through” when it matters much more often than the other. Is that real or random?

by DavidRF on Jul 30, 2010 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I am oldie and I remember how the Oakland A's...

…could beat the pants off of you because of the situational hitting of Sal Bando and Gene Tenace, both of whom sported very poor batting averages, but became dramatically better hitters when the game was on the line. I don’t know the reason behind it—maybe some players concentrate better/are more selective—whatever—in the clutch.

"I don't think it's nice, you laughin'. See, my mule don't like people laughing. He gets the crazy idea you're laughing at him. Now if you apologize, like I know you're going to, I might convince him that you really didn't mean it . . ."

by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on Aug 1, 2010 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions

conversely

an ace (roy halladay, johan santana) after allowing runners on-base, will go into lock-down mode and become unhittable. yes, the clutch exists, in the players’ head.

by yefrem on Aug 2, 2010 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, aces aren't the only ones who do that.

Sure, Halladay and Santana have been clutch, but so have A.J. Burnett and Mike Pelfrey, neither of whom are pitching that well and are considered “head cases.”

by Hillstop on Aug 2, 2010 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions

is a.j. burnett a headcase?

i always thought he was just a surfer with lethal stuff.

still waiting for him to break his right elbow or shoulder…

by yefrem on Aug 2, 2010 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I think the term gets thrown around far too often

but I’m mainly pointing out the perceptions NYers and the media have about him. I mean, does this sound like someone who would be clutch, let alone one of the clutchest pitchers in the game this season?

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2010/06/17/2010-06-17_lack_of_focus_is_what_burns_as_righty_loses_poise__game.html

by Hillstop on Aug 2, 2010 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions