Why Trading Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps is a Good Deal
by Jesse on Jul 30, 2010 8:02 AM EDT
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I'm just spitballing here, but I'm pretty sure the reaction to this trade won't be a positive one. Maybe I'm wrong. In any case, I'm taking what I think will be the contrarian's view by supporting this trade. We'll do it point-by-point...
Matt Capps immediately becomes Minnesota's best relief pitcher
This is not just because he's the new closer. He has a higher strikeout rate than anybody in the bullpen not named Jesse Crain, has a lower walk rate than anybody in the bullpen not named Ron Mahay. He gets a good number of swinging strikes, his FIP and xFIP both insist he's a good bet to continue to be productive going forward, his mid-90s fastball is at least a little bit tricky, he's efficient, works ahead often and is good at finished off hitters in four pitches or less. Those are all positives, and you can't say all of those things about anybody else in the Minnesota bullpen.
Forget that he was an All-Star and forget that he collects something called a "save", he's a good arm.
Matt Capps makes the back end of the bullpen better
Even if Jon Rauch did okay as The Closer, we all know he made us a little nervous. It's hard to argue that he's a better set-up or middle reliever than The Closer, but this much is certain: moving him back moves everyone else back. Having four quality arms like Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jesse Crain and Rauch available before you get to The Closer makes this team that much deeper, that much harder to come back on and it gives Gardy that many more options depending on what day it is.
The end result is one of these things: Nick Blackburn is sent to Rochester, Ron Mahay is designated for assignment or Anthony Slama is sent back to Rochester. Whichever of these occurs, the bullpen is better.
Wilson Ramos was never going to be a piece of the future for the Twins
He just wasn't. He's too highly regarded to be relegated to backup duties, which meant he'd have to be dealt somewhere. And if you're dealing for help this year, to get the best reliever available, you have to give up something. Considering the Blue Jays want a "top prospect" for Scott Downs, perhaps Ramos' .241/.280/.345 triple slash just wasn't inspiring enough for them and a guy like Aaron Hicks wasn't considered expendible.
Even if the Twins did overpay, it wasn't by much. Ramos is an extra piece, a 23-year old catcher whose bat only plays decently as a catcher, and it's not like he's a sure thing--we probably over-valued him a little bit. He's not Jesus Montero.
Matt Capps helps solidify the bullpen for 2011
In a season where Joe Nathan was lost to injury and three pitchers (Guerrier, Rauch and Crain) are set to become free agents (none of which are a sure bet to be re-signed considering payroll), adding the arbitration-eligible Capps into the equation doesn't just give the Twins a backup closer option in case Nathan isn't ready to go on Opening Day 2011, but if he IS ready then Capps is a quality set-up man to pair with Jose Mijares. And if the option next season is paying Capps in arbitration or re-signing Guerrier to a two-year deal, I'm taking Capps in a heartbeat.
The Twins are a better team with Matt Capps
They are. Ramos wasn't going to play a role on this club in the future, and he didn't have a role in 2010 either. His departure and Capps arrival makes the relief corps better, and as a result the Twins are a better team. They're better equipped to close out games down the stretch with a handful of quality arms, and they're better equipped to hold leads against teams like New York, Texas, Boston or Tampa Bay in October.
This is a move for THIS year. We've been waiting for the Twins to make a move for THIS year, and they have. I'm happy with that. I'm still convinced that 2010 is a special year for the Twins, and that this is a season where we could knock off the Yankees and take home the World Series. Capps can help us do that.
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Ramos was never going to be a part of the future
IS the reason this I like this trade. We needed bullpen depth and we got it for a man that would never play a big part with the Twins. I like it.
"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have"
Thomas Jefferson
by RileysCannibalJct on Jul 30, 2010 8:41 AM EDT reply actions
RileysCannibaljct is right. By the way whereTF did you get that name.
For everyone that says Ramos is to much for Capps. so what ? How much was Ramos going to play in getting us to the postseason. ZERO percent. We should have gotten rid of him earlier we would have gotten even more for him. He might not even pan out. Capps can help. Any help is better than none at all.
wrong
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 30, 2010 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Dont just say "wrong"
Tell us why….thats why we are here after all.
"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have"
Thomas Jefferson
by RileysCannibalJct on Jul 30, 2010 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Amen
Your post reflects what I am thinking as well. Especially the last paragraph!
by twinscrazy_german on Jul 30, 2010 8:48 AM EDT reply actions
Not contrarian
This to me is the rational response. Capps provides multiple this-year and next-year benefits in exchange for a guy that might never learn to hit major-league curveballs. Maybe it’s because I watched Capps shut down the Braves here on Tuesday, but I think this helps our bullpen become elite. I certainly wish Wilson well, but he is far from a sure thing.
by MajorLongfont on Jul 30, 2010 8:49 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Agreed
I think most fans who think we got swindled believe that Ramos should have fetched us a Lee or Oswalt. Have to believe we offered him as part of deals for those pitchers and it got us nowhere. Not an overwhelming trade, but it does make the 2010 Twins better. Glad to see us thinking like a contender and not towards the future…
As with most trades, time will tell if it worked out… no use losing your mind about losing a AAA catcher with a sub .300 OBP. Now, 3 years down the line if he is in an all-star game, then feel free to crow about how you were right about the trade.
Run baby run!
Capps
Has racked up saves on bad teams. Other than that meaningless stat, he’s been a good, not great reliever. Evmen with one down year at AAA, not shocking for his age and first yeAr there, Ramos projects still as a very good catching prospect. We just sold low on what many view as an elite prospect for 1.5 years of average to slightly above average relief help. Rauch v. Capps isn’t much different. And we have Neshek waisting away. Why? Because he questioned the Twins’ trainers?
Horrible trade like most during the Bill Smith era.
Maroon and Gold Headquarters: The Daily Gopher
Look how much Rauch cost in trade last year
Not nearly as much. I have to believe they could have found 90% of the talent for 50% of the cost.
Big difference
Rauch didn’t have 26 SAVES when the Twins traded for him last year. You can’t overrate the importance of a PROVEN CLOSER™, because it’s not like the Twins have ever plugged a guy with very little closing experience into that role and had it work out (other than Rick Aguilera, Eddie Guardado, and Joe Nathan, but they must have been exceptions).
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
I really hope this wasn't Bill Smith's reasoning for the trade
But I wonder about that too.
Souhan in Chinese! : "一會兒，德爾蒙楊想與他無關的隊友。不想讓他們打他。難道不希望他們偷了他的頭盔。不希望他們成為他的Facebook的朋友。"
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Jul 30, 2010 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
YES
Jesse, I suppose it is a bit late, but please edit that sentence because I spent 5 minutes trying to figure out what the bleep you meant.
My life's goal: to force fischean itno using her moderator powers
by montanatwinsfan on Jul 30, 2010 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I was lost.
Either way, I’m not big on this.
Check out my work here: http://csssaints.blogspot.com/
by joeiscool12 on Jul 30, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
send down blackie
bring in another RHP, better send down a RHP – blackie. a bad sinkerballer is not someone you want pitching with men on base late in the game.
Why get cash back?
The Twins are rolling in cash, they have the insurance on Nathan’s contract, why did they get cash back in the deal from the Nationals? Is there another move yet to come?
My thought
It strikes me as an acknowledgment that the Twins realize they’re getting the short end of this deal – “If we’re going to give you those guys for Capps, the least you can do is pay some of his salary.”
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
I agree with the idea that Capps makes us better, this year and next year,
but if he’s our closer, he’s one of the poorer closers in baseball. He’s that guy everyone drafts near the end in their fantasy draft to grab some cheap saves after all the good closers are gone. Is he any different than Jesse Crain? Showing flashes of brilliance (lately) speckled with periods of god-awful? Again, not to say he doesn’t make us better, but he is what he is: a good set-up guy or not-so-good closer.
And it’s true that Ramos is pretty blocked here. But look, you don’t sell a Stradivarius for $30 bucks just because you’re never going to play the violin. And maybe the scouts and numbers are saying Ramos doesn’t project as a good MLB catcher after what he’s done this year at AAA, but if he still does, this was a huge act of charity towards the Nationals. (and I don’t even want to know anything about the other guy we gave up.)
+1
Souhan in Chinese! : "一會兒，德爾蒙楊想與他無關的隊友。不想讓他們打他。難道不希望他們偷了他的頭盔。不希望他們成為他的Facebook的朋友。"
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Jul 30, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Stradivarius
Is Wilson Ramos really at the “Stradivarius” level? I think he’s a good catching prospect, one of our best prospects overall. But I think his ceiling is going to be right around an average, 10-15 ranked starting catcher, and his floor is much lower due to questions about hitting breaking stuff at the Major League level. Look at it this way, among the catching prospects that are currently out there, how many rate above Ramos? According to Baseball America’s Top 11 list, Jesus Montero (#4), Buster Posey (#7), Carlos Santana (#10), Derek Norris (#38), Jason Castro (#41) all rank above Ramos (#58).
Of that list, I would consider the top three to be “Stradivarius” level. And as for Capps, he’s clearly an above average reliever who makes us better. Hardly “$30” IMO.
I’m not saying I don’t think we overpaid a bit here, we probably did. But it wasn’t an act of charity either.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 30, 2010 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I was making the point that the market should set the price,
regardless of whether something actually has value to you. I concede that this is not nearly as big a ripoff as paying $30 for a Stradivarius.
And you’re right that there’s downside risk to Ramos, but there is to Capps too. I mean, just last year Capps was below replacement.
Market setting the price
I think that may be exactly what happened here. This time of year, it seems like teams are always asking for the moon for decent bullpen arms. There have been reports of Toronto asking for Jesus Montero or Joba in exchange for Scott Downs. Obviously, if you wait it out up until the deadline the price will probably come down. But you may also end up left out in the cold come 01 Aug. In fact, a bullpen arm like Capps is much less likely to get through waivers than many of the starters out there because of his contract.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 30, 2010 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
CAPPS vs. CRAIN
i asked myself that same question – do we need another jesse crain? the two have similar stuff – differences being that crain has better breaking stuff and capps slightly better command. the situation is now very ripe for a closer by committee approach – and therefore a setup, long relief, and situational relief by committee approach as well. this would have a number of benefits:
1. spread out workload evenly across bullpen
2. cut down on salary inflation for any single player due to “nathan-effect”
3. allows luxury of expending a situational stopper when a strikeout is needed in 6th or 7th inning in close games.
Amen again
I think Ramos was built up – way overrated. From all the talk, you’d like he was Jackie Robinson.
Rauch is not a closer. He’s a setup man. There are no guarantees Nathan is coming back, and if he does – he probably will not be the same.
And this was a good move for now…“The IS next year!”
The beard abides.
by Jason Kubel's Beard on Jul 30, 2010 10:03 AM EDT reply actions
Hogwash
Quit being ridiculous. Everyone knows Jackie Robinson wasn’t a catcher, so the appropriate comparison was Josh Gibson.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Wow
Just 3 months ago, the prevailing attitude was not to trade Ramos despite the presence of Mauer. Alternatively, you CAN’T trade Ramos for less than a long term solution at an important position of need. He’s just too valuable.
And now we’re justifying trading him for a relatively fungible reliever who will probably pitch 25 innings over the remainder of the season?
I do not endorse this trade.
We Are the Washington Generals
by Eric in Madison on Jul 30, 2010 10:10 AM EDT reply actions
Thank you sir.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
Justifying the trade
Yes, Capps will probably only pitch 25 innings this year for the Twins. But he’s replacing 25 innings from the bottom of our rotation, not to mention from Rauch in the 9th inning (where he’s looked might shaky of late). And he’s also under control for next year, which may make Crain, Guerrier, etc expendable.
I’m not overwhelmed by this trade, but I’m not totally against it either.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 30, 2010 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions
My only issue...
is the fact that the Phillies didn’t have to pick up the option on Roy Oswalt, and he was dealt for a 27 year old pitcher. I think the Twins could have put together a better package than the Phillies. Is Oswalt just afraid of the DH’s of the AL?
I was never down on Rausch like most Twins fans were. Heck, we loved Everyday Eddie Guardado for a number of years, and that dude made you sweat every time he took the mound. Rausch came in and saved 21 of 25 possible games, even if they were a bit shaky.
I do think we needed to add a closer since Rauchy isn’t overpowering, but Matt Capps is not an overpowering guy either. I’ll be interested to see a more complex breakdown on his statistics, or his year in comparison to Rausch.
I think we could have gotten more out of the Wilson Ramos trading chip, since catchers and highly regarded catching prospects are so valuable. But in the end, it adds Rausch to the back end of the game as a set up man, and he’s darn good in that role. So I think we improved our team, and I’m satisfied with that.
The cost is the big difference
Roy Oswalt’s $16M (prorated) price tag this year and $16M tag next year drove down his value quite a bit.
And while I’d probably rather have Ramos than J.A. Happ, it’s arguable which you’d rather have. A guy who has had success as a starting pitcher in the Majors (I discount some of his numbers this season due to injury), or a potential average or slightly above ceiling starting catcher?
by Adam Peterson on Jul 30, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Catchers are important
Pitching is even more important. You can’t have too much pitching and adding Capps helps the bullpen and makes Duensing’s move to the rotatation less of a problem. The Twins will have four free agents in their current bullpen and one in their rotation. It is important to pick up a good arm for this year and next year.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Jul 30, 2010 10:33 AM EDT reply actions
What about Jesse Crain?
In case others haven’t noticed, Jesse Crain has figured out how to get guys out without his 4-seam fastball. Crain’s curves and sliders are what has made him into the best strikeout pitcher in the bullpen, so why didn’t they just make him the closer, call up Kyle Waldrop (sub 2 ERA) and send Nick Blackburn down to AAA?
Oh, wait…then they couldn’t get rid of Wilson Ramos and Joe Testa and save a bunch of money.
Never mind.
Uh, really?
Trading two guys on minor league contracts for a guy making $3.5mil is a move to “save a bunch of money”?
The reason they didn’t do what you say is that they don’t trust Crain to keep up what he’s done over the last month (and rightfully so, based on his track record) and that Capps is much better than Waldrop (at this point in time.)
Surplus value
A lot of uncertainties but Capps is likely worth roughly 2 WAR (based on a xFIP and SIERA around 3.5) over the next 1.33 years. Assuming an arb award of 5M and splitting the difference between type A and B draft pick compensation, his suplus value is 2WAR x 4.5M/WAR – 5.5M + 3M = 6.5M.
Ramos is hard to judge because he’s had an awful year but if we place him as a hitting prospect in the 75-100 range he’s worth an average of 0.63 WAR/year. Over 4.2 years to account for arbitratiion awards that works out to 11.9M at 4.5M/WAR. This should be discounted some, because a win today is worth more to the Twins than a win 6 years from now.
The thing this analysis doensn’t account for is playoff probability and odds of post season success. Capps probably increases our playoff odds 5-10% which is worth another $2-3M. A good bulpen is correlated with playoff success but to what degree would just be a WAG on my part.
I’d rate the trade as a slight win for Washington, but in the context of a tight division race and a team that’s set to lose Thome, Hudson, Rauch, Matty G, and Crain in 2011 it makes sense from the Twins perspective as well.
by Jon Kammerer on Jul 30, 2010 11:13 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
+1
That’s about where I am with this. Overall considering both short and long term, it’s a slight win for Washington. But in the short term, it’s a clear upgrade for the Twins, and given where we are teh value of a marginal win is so much greater.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 30, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Me too
I’m OK with overpaying to win now. It’s not that big of an overpay.
In sprint training, I thought Ramos was a can’t miss prospect. Since then, I have developed doubts about that. In particular, I think he has a lot of work to do as a hitter to be a major league starter. He has shown a weakness to hitting the breaking ball and an inability to recognize it and lay off it out of the zone.
He’s comparable to Carlos Gomez. Few players have more raw tools than Gomez. But until he develops better plate discipline, he will have limited value as a major leaguer. Ramos is kind of a catching version of Gomez. Huge defensive upside. Huge power. Too many Ks, too few BBs.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Now with Pudge as a "mentor"
Pudge is absoutely the worst player to have as a model for Ramos.
If Capps has a chance at type A status, that placates me a little.
But .63 WAR/year for Ramos seems like a really low-side estimate (though your method is entirely reasonalbe). That would make him something like the 35th-best catcher in the league in a given year. In other words not even the worst starting catcher in MLB. I mean, if he could just manage to be Greg Zaun, he’d completely explode that estimate. Maybe it’s true, but I just can’t believe someone goes from having an average-MLB-catcher floor to having an average-MLB-catcher ceiling in the space of a couple months.
As for Capps, only about 20-25 relievers gather 1.5 WAR/season (where you’re putting Capps), which makes 2 WAR basically HIS ceiling, and as we know, his floor is below replacement (see 2009). (and I’m not sure we’ll be using him for most of that time to actually replace a replacement-level pitcher—at least not this year)
I’d also be surprised if good high-leverage relief pitching correlates with playoff success more than it does for regular-season games. But I don’t know, maybe there’s something out there saying it does.
Nate Silver wrote an article, Why Billy Beane’s Sh** Doesn’t work in the Playoffs" for Baseball Between the Numbers that found a correlation between postseason success and a high strikeout starting staff, a good bullpen as judged by WXRL, and defense as judged by FRAA.
The 2 WAR is based on 1.33 years of service time. I estimated him as 1.5 WAR reliever based on an xFIP/SIERA around 3.5. He saves 1 run/9 innings over replacement level so over 80 innings that’s 9 runs and I then gave him partial credit for leverage and took the 0.9 × 1.5 and rounded. Fangraphs doesn’t account for chaining in relievers which is important IMHO.
The 0.63 comes from Victor Wang’s work and was translated to wins to make it easier to work with so you’re not always trying to inflate/deflate from 2009 values. Here’s the link. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/7/13/1567771/prospect-surplus-value.
Thanks for the comments. I don’t want to make it so full of links and math as to make my comment unreadable, but I’m more than happy to clarify.
by Jon Kammerer on Jul 30, 2010 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair points all around.
You may have talked me off the ledge a little. 75-100 is probably about right given his 2010 struggles (although the Twins probably missed a window where he was considered at least top 50—not that they could have predicted the swift decline)
This is the crux of all the angst, IMO
We bought a stock for pennies, saw it top out at $100/share, then ended up selling it for $75/share. I think we got market value for Ramos, it’s just less than we were expecting based on his BA rankings and hot winter league.
by Jon Kammerer on Jul 30, 2010 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Average MLB catcher floor
IMO is a pretty crazy evaluation for Ramos, be it before the season or right now. With any hitter who has problems hitting (or laying off) a AAA, much less Major League breaking ball, the floor is definitely fringe major leaguer / AAAA guy.
Do I think the chances of that happening are great? No. But I don’t think Ramos has top five catcher ceiling either. Top ten maybe, but he’s not Joe Mauer either.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 30, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
To be fair, "average-MLB-catcher floor" is something I can't actually point to in writing.
It’s probably my perception of what people thought as much as anything. Kevin Goldstein had him as above-average MLB catcher ceiling in his offseason prospect writeups.
Ramos's Market Value
I honestly didn’t believe this trade when I first saw it this morning. Seriously, one of our blue-chip prospects for a good but not elite closer from the Nationals? What a waste. Yes, I understand that Capps will make our bullpen better and deeper, but what good is that if we are trailing by six runs after three innings. Last month I was positive Ramos could get us a bona fide starter to shore up our rotation. Unfortunately, events have proven otherwise. Apparently the other teams around major league baseball did not share my opinion about Ramos.
Assume that Bill Smith called up all the teams with pitching available and made it clear that Ramos was available. In that case, it seems reasonable to argue that:
a) A package built around Ramos wasn’t enough to get any of the big name starting pitchers: Cliff Lee, Dan Haren, or Roy Oswalt.
b) Ramos wasn’t enough to get any of the better relief pitchers which are or are rumored to be available: the two Toronto guys (Downs and Fraser?), Soria, et al.
c) Ramos is only worth an above-average national league relief pitcher with no playoff track record.
Why was I (and apparently a lot of other people here) so wrong about Ramos? This sucks. :(
Capps has more value than Downs or Frasor
They are both in their 30s rather than Capps 26, and they are both free agents next year. Downs is clearly better than Capps, but probably would have cost as much or more. Frasor is not better than Capps, and wouldn’t make our BP much better.
we were not wrong
BA ranked Ramos in the top 5 catching prospects in the AL and #6 in the entire Major leagues. Yes, he had a bad start to the season, but lets face it – so have all of our prospects. According to the philosophy on these boards after Ramos was traded, we should apparently trade away all of our prospects, because they are having “bad” years.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
That does not equate to Blue Chip
You’re saying that he’s better than the catching prospects on 23 teams. He’s not elite. He’s a good prospect, not a great one.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Yes
He would not be my first or even 10th choice. But he was available.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
why o why trade Ramos when he's having a down year
next year in AA/AAA
he could explode and put up HUGE #’s quite easily
GOD DAMNG
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 30, 2010 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions
In the beginning of the season...
I bet they had Hicks first as well. I would bet anything that if they redid that list right now, Ramos would not be that high and Sano would be without a doubt our #1 prospect. Things change.
I am not saying I love this deal. Just saying that trading Ramos is not exactly grounds for freaking out…
Run baby run!
Ramos will do nothing about trailing by six runs after three innings either
I know you are talking about getting a bona fide starting pitcher for Ramos, but Duensing for Blackburn addresses your problem above.
And looking at Cliff Lee, I can definitely see Seattle’s side. Justin Smoak is a more prized prospect than Ramos. They simply valued him more.
For Oswalt, the Astros need pitching, not a catcher. Jason Castro is their catcher of the future.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 30, 2010 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
would you not feel better
if it were another, more experienced and elite starting pitcher pitching Game 3 of the playoffs? Duensing is an upgrade over Blackburn, but not an upgrade over Baker/Slowey.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
Of course, to a point
but we simply did not have a prospect like Justin Smoak to give up for Cliff Lee. Nor do I think it was a good idea to take on $16M salary for Oswalt next year and perhaps the year after given his leverage and no trade clause.
Where I see Duensing as a clear upgrade is over Blackburn the remaining 10-12 starts of the regular season. Then, depending on what he, Baker and Slowey do the remainder of the year , if we make the playoffs Duensing may slip back into the bullpen or take Baker/Slowey’s spot.
Sure, I would like a “more experienced and elite” starting pitcher for game 3, but after Lee and Oswalt, who is available that fits the bill? I can live with some combination of Baker/Slowey/Duensing in games 3-4 of the playoffs since we have Pavano and Liriano at the top. Remember, last year it wasn’t the starting pitching, but rather the bullpen (esp Nathan) that killed us against the Yankees. I’m not saying Capps will fix the bullpen for the playoffs, but adding an above average bullpen arm certainly doesn’t hurt.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 30, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
"Ramos wasn't going to play a role on this club in the future, and he didn't have a role in 2010 either."
If that is the mentality of the Front Office, God Help Us!
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
I understand that this was a move to help the team this year
but I don’t think this turns games into 6 inning affairs. Capps is not ‘that’ much better than Rauch.
And I really don’t think this makes the Twins better than any of the teams they might face in the post season…
Comparing Capps to Rauch is not what we should do here
Except for the ninth inning. Since Capps moves Rauch and everyone else down a notch, we’re really talking about Capps replacing the bottom 25 innings or so from the bullpen.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 30, 2010 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Capps to Rauch isn't a comparison of how Capps will improve our bullpen
It’s a benchmark of value. Would we do this trade for Rauch? No way. Should we then make the same trade for Capps, who is better than Rauch, but not a lot better than Rauch? That’s the value of the comparison to Rauch. A benchmark, not an indicator of how much Capps will improve our bullpen.
Souhan in Chinese! : "一會兒，德爾蒙楊想與他無關的隊友。不想讓他們打他。難道不希望他們偷了他的頭盔。不希望他們成為他的Facebook的朋友。"
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Jul 30, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I see what you're saying...
But this all depends on the perceived value of Ramos. Maybe we sold low on him but clearly he isn’t THAT highly regarded outside of our organization, and our blogosphere definitely has him rated higher than he probably should be, relative to the rest of the league of course.
by Corkatron on Jul 30, 2010 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That's the tough part
It’s hard for us not to overrate Ramos, especially after reading so much about him here.
But it’s not like Ramos was that poorly rated outside of the organization. Baseball America rated him their #58 overall prospect this year and their #2 Twins prospect (behind Hicks). Keith Law put Ramos in at #42 overall prospect. Baseball Prospectus put him at #65 overall. John Sickels rates Ramos as our fourth best prospect, at a B- rank (we have 2 Bs according to Sickels, Revere and Gibson, and one B+, Hicks).
To me, that says that other people outside of Twins fans value Ramos too and that we overpaid (even if we are overvaluing him ourselves). We don’t know what other MLB teams thought, but we can’t know that.
Souhan in Chinese! : "一會兒，德爾蒙楊想與他無關的隊友。不想讓他們打他。難道不希望他們偷了他的頭盔。不希望他們成為他的Facebook的朋友。"
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Jul 30, 2010 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I couldn't agree with you more, Adam.
This is all about deepening our bullpen, not “replacing” Rauch at the backend.
I agree with the sentiment you said earlier, that we may have overspent slightly for Capps in the long run, but this significantly helps us out in the short run BECAUSE it replaces those bottom 25 innings or so. Well stated.
After being able to think about it more all morning, I’m definitely not against the trade, but I’m certainly not overjoyed by it either. Which is ok I guess. We made our AL best bullpen that much better. Could go a long way in the postseason…
twins don't have AL best bullpen
but they patched up a glaring postseason weakness – the inability to get strikeouts at critical situations. now the twins can stick crain or CAPPS in for a single out in the 6th inning instead of leavening crain across a series of right and left handed batters for an extended outing. each of these guys is capable of throwing 97 mph+ and blowing good hitters away in short order.
I see how this helps the Twins win the division
but I don’t think it does much to help the Twins go deep in October.
So Capps gets the 9th
Rauch or Cheeseburger gets the 8th
Crain or Shaggy gets the 7th
Our staters better go a strong 6 innings or it won’t matter much… and all the guys in the pen have their issues….
Maybe I just bought the Ramos hype but if he was going to be traded I would have hoped it would have been to bring a player that gives us more confidence in October…
Who knows maybe Capps will be lights out and the trigger to a superpen
Maybe like Brad Lidge for the Phillies
A change of scenery rejuvenates him…I also make this comparison out of the shameless hope that goes lights out in the playoffs like Lidge and we win the Series in 5.
by MarshalltheIrish on Jul 30, 2010 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
that HE goes lights out
Damn fast typing.
by MarshalltheIrish on Jul 30, 2010 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
And he
Is NOT like the Brad Lidge of last year.
by MarshalltheIrish on Jul 30, 2010 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I still think that, ultimately, we're buying high on Capps and selling low on Ramos
Even though I agree with all of your points Jesse, I still don’t like this trade because of that. Did it really take Ramos to get Capps? Was there really no “90% of the value, 50% of the cost” trade that we could have done instead? No non-closer relievers who would have been an upgrade for a much lower cost? No way to trade for, say, a starter, and call up Waldrop if needed for the bullpen?
I know all of this is speculation. But I feel like we overpaid, and we should have been able to make better trade than the one we actually made. I suppose we could still make another trade after this, but I’m not hopeful.
I’ll love it if Capps proves me completely wrong, but I’m still feeling really pessimistic about the trade.
Souhan in Chinese! : "一會兒，德爾蒙楊想與他無關的隊友。不想讓他們打他。難道不希望他們偷了他的頭盔。不希望他們成為他的Facebook的朋友。"
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Jul 30, 2010 11:43 AM EDT reply actions
My opinion of this trade, in a picture:
Here’s hoping Bill Smith proves me wrong.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. ~ Terence Mann
On, Wisconsin!
by John Veldhuis on Jul 30, 2010 2:37 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
+1
Ramos was a top 30-40 or at the very least a top 60-70 PROSPECT IN ALL OF BASEBALL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?!?!?!?!?!
wtf Twins
wtf
what about the next 6-7 years
i hate putting all the chips in the baskett for 1 fricken season
Ramos could be a DH/C and Mauer a C/1B or even a 3B gosh i don’t like it at all….
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 30, 2010 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Rec'd and very well-established points Jesse
ESPECIALLY that last one. :) That to me is the best thing about this move: It’s geared towards being a “now” move like last year’s trades and the great offseason transactions. Not to get out hopes too high…but I too feel this is a special team that wants to win for us, new stadium and all.
by MarshalltheIrish on Jul 30, 2010 3:26 PM EDT reply actions
Puke
i puked for the past 48 hours straight
the end
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 30, 2010 5:27 PM EDT reply actions
I agree with the post...
However, I don’t think the “Ramos would never have a spot” argument works anywhere. While I think it was a fair trade anyway, you can’t just throw away a player on a trade because they don’t have a future with the team…
I'm still a Minnesotan at heart...
Yeah
But they didn’t just throw him away. They got a quality player in return who is under team control through 2011. Someone suggested nontentdering him after the season. They wouldn’t have sent Ramos for a two-month rental. They needed an insurance policy on Nathan, and Rauch is not it.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jul 31, 2010 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
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