COUNTERPOINT: Why Jesse Is Wrong and The Twins Are Doomed

Beginning of the year, yes. Has he really proven that he has offensive potential and defensive prowess this year? His OBP is less that .300 and the AAA pitching staff is horrible. Defensive prowess is more than just throwing guys out. Not saying he is the reason for all the lousy pitchers Rochester has, but I just think people were so high on him early this year and he has done nothing this year to back up those expectations. Maybe this does not work out, but based on his season, I think the bloom has come off the rose to other MLB teams. Not our bloggers I guess. I may be wrong and he turns out to be a great catcher. Based on this year, I do not see that happening.

Projections are just that – projections.

 The only problem with this trade is we should have flipped him earlier this year when teams were really gung-ho for him and could have gotten more. I just refuse to believe that Seattle was really close to trading us Lee for Ramos and change. He has not performed well enough to be the centerpiece for a trade for a major talent this year.

the reason why most are down on this trade is we may have been able to get more with him, such as an oswalt or a lee. I honestly don’t believe oswalt would have come to the american league, and I don’t believe the mariners thought very highly of wilson. While we probably could have gotten significantly more trading him last offseason, his value may be falling drastically with his dissapointing season. And really, we need a closer for this year, and a setup man for next year with crain, guerrier not signed

for people like me who dont watch a lot of NATS games, matt capps last five outings:

5 IP, walk to o-cabrera, double to laynce nix. strikeouts of ricky weeks, joey votto, brian mccann, one or two more so’s but only the 1 hit.

lots of swings and misses, even with a 3-run lead and throwing nothing but fastballs. i was sort of surprised. his fastball reached up to 97 in a save against atlanta at home, and his changeup, at about 88-89 mph, get ground balls and a few swings and misses. unremarkable slider, but overall, pretty good i have to say judging from last 5 innings of work

I think we need to wait a little bit before truly jumping to conclusions about what this trade means for the Twins this season as well as next season but what I do like about the trade, even though I think we may have overpaid, is that Matt Capps is a good clubhouse guy. This is from the Washington Post and has more of a National’s perspective on Capps:
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“They appreciated the work that I had done,” Capps said. “More than anything, they kind of appreciated the clubhouse stuff, the way I went about my business. To see the person is what’s most important in my life. Hopefully, me the person left more of an impression than me the baseball player.”

Capps, 26, had prepared for the possibility of a trade, saying he understood how the business of baseball operates. Still, “it kind of caught me off guard,” he said. “I had heard a few things. I hadn’t heard a lot about the Twins. I know it’s a good organization, the year they’re having has been great.”

As Capps drove to Nationals Park, he had “different emotions.” He felt excitement about joining a team in contention for the postseason. He also felt melancholy about leaving the Nationals. He expressed his gratitude in the Nationals believing he could be a closer after the Pirates non-tendered him following the worst major league season of his career, the same offseason in which his father passed away.

“I’m kind of saddened I’m not going to be around the guys I’ve been around the last four months or so,” Capps said. “I’ve really enjoyed my time here in Washington. I knew it was a possibility. I’m saddened I’m leaving the guys I’m leaving.”
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I think he can form some great relationships in the Twins organization and perhaps playing in meaningful September games for the first time in his career, coupled with Target Field (lower home run / fb ratio?) we can get some great innings out of him.

We’ll see, give it time guys.

Jack Moore at Fangraphs:

“Capps likely becomes the best reliever on the team, and should enter the closer’s role immediately. Capps won’t be a huge upgrade over Rauch, but due to the effects of bullpen chaining, the addition of Capps helps the entire bullpen.”

“It does seem pretty disappointing, however, that Capps is the return for Ramos after he was rumored to be half of a trade for Cliff Lee. Ramos, 22, is struggling at AAA but had a very solid 21 year old season in AA, hitting .330/.352/.447.”

“This one’s pretty simple for the Twins. They upgrade the front end of their bullpen, but at the expense of a promising talent at catcher. Just as far as the short term goes, the Twins obviously come out ahead, as Capps is a solid reliever and immediately becomes the best on the team. He’s not a great reliever, though, and the effect probably won’t be as high as his low ERA would suggest. I just wonder if the return for Ramos could have been more.”

Pros: This will help the team win this year. And it will make the bullpen better next year, especially with three impending free agents out there.

Cons: Ramos could become a star. At minimum, he will be a sold major league catcher. One would think the Twins could get more in exchange for him.

Most of these quotes amount to this argument: Ramos was worth half of Cliff Lee; Capps is not close to half of Cliff Lee. Ergo, the Twins overpaid. The first premise is patently false. Ramos and another top prospect is what the Twins offered. They didn’t win that deal, not even close. Ramos is not worth anywhere near Smoak in value.

Is anyone else wondering when he is going to get another chance at the MLB level? Personally, I feel like he could have been just as much if not more of a boost to our team than Capps. Oh, and we wouldn’t have had to give up our best catching prospect to get him, seeing as he is already on the roster.

My opinion is that if the Twins weren’t comfortable with Rauch as the closer, then fill the position from within the organization. Give Guerrier a shot there, or Crain, or Neshek, or Slama. We have guys that could fill that role, and potentially quite well. I don’t think there was really any need to go trade your best trade chip for a guy who only helps your bullpen marginally at best.

Not a fan of this trade, but I sure hope I am proven wrong about it.

when this trade really turns out bad. Ramos could have gotten us so much more but the Twins decided to trade him away. Now, Mauer is hurting – how do we know that he won’t have to go on the DL at this point or some point during the year – its baseball.

So, we trade away our Catching prospect, who is under team control for 6 more years, for a reliever, who has a 3.5M contract, a sure raise, and one more year of team control.

I know people are angry that we got so little back for Ramos, and honestly, I’m one of them to an extent. I also think that we may have been overvaluing him based on what he did prior to 2010.

Yes, Ramos was a more attractive trade chip last offseason. His value has decreased over the last 4 months, but there is no guarantee that this downturn isn’t going to continue. Ramos turns 23 in 2 weeks. The older he gets without being MLB-ready, the less the Twins were going to be able to get for him.

Let’s set aside what we think about Capps for a moment… It was a foregone conclusion that Ramos was going to be traded, so the question is whether or not this was a good time to pull the trigger.

Do you blame the Twins for not dealing Ramos last offseason before he had this sub-year season? I don’t see a problem with wanting to develop him 1 more year into a MLB-ready catcher to try and increase his value. A 23 year old MLB catcher is worth more than a 22 year old minor leaguer.

Then, do you think the Twins should have kept Ramos and dealt him this upcoming offseason? His 2010 season is basically set in stone as a disappointment at this point. He is currently losing value, not gaining it.

The final option would have been to hold onto Ramos for next season and hope that he rebounds. -But we have no way to know how is 2011 is going to go at this point. If he succeeds and forces a call-up, then now was a bad time to sell. If he continues to struggle at AAA in 2011 then this was a good time to sell. -But, if he has an adequate 2011 in AAA, then this was also a good time to sell.

1. The guy that Capps actually replaces in the bullpen isn’t the bottom 25 innings or Rauch, he replaces Duensing. Slama replaced Burnett, and Capps replaces Blackburn who replaced Duensing. Duensing was awesome this year and Capps will be hardpressed to match what BD did in the pen.

2. The bottom 25 inning replacement meme isn’t really a good one because most of those 25 innings are garbage innings that anyone can pitch.

3. This trade shouldn’t move everyone down a notch. Capps is the closer and Matty still should pitch the 8th innings. Rauch should move into the 6th and 7th inning roles. This does give us depth though as Rauch can pitch 8th’s on days Matty can’t go.

4. The perfect recent game that is an example where this trade helps the Twins is Duensing’s first start this year. He was pulled after 5 innings and we gave the high leverage one run innings to Slama and Mahay and lost the game. Now with our added depth, Crain and Rauch could have pitched those innings.

The innings in that game were important 1 run innings and should go to the studs in the ’pen. Notice the next day we had two bullpen innings to pitch with a 5 run lead and those went to MattyG and Rauch. No more backwardsville.

5. I will restate again the main reason this trade was made. It was because of our old school manager who can see a tree but not the forest. He needs a CLOSER. Period. We couldn’t have traded for a guy like Downs because he’s not a Closer™.

Gardy needs a “closer” that he can put in the game for the 9th inning with a 1-3 run lead. He needs roles for all his guys in the bullpen so he can just cut-and-paste the guy into whatever the situation presents, or else he gets confused for all the thinking he should be doing. He’s been out of sorts this year beyond Matty 8th, Rauch 9th. Now he can go, 6th inning close game, Jesse Crain. 7th inning, close game, Rauch…etc.

But the market just wasn’t willing to pay what I thought it was worth, so I had to settle for a lower price.

Something happened.

John Bonnes, Seth Stohs, Aaron Gleeman, Chris Mottram, Parker Hageman, Josh Johnson, Patrick Reuesse, etc. are made GM of the Twins is the day I stick a fork in each eye.

Of course if I am named GM, you all can stick forks in your eyes. I would understand.

lets trade Aaron Hicks for Livan Hernandez! It is essentially the same trade as Ramos for Capps!

Obviously, more doesn’t have to be Lee/Haren/Oswalt. The Twins tried, that didn’t work. I, personally, get that. I’m disappointed it didn’t help get us Lee or Haren, but I get it. I’m not sure about the other “we could have gotten more” crowd. I’m merely speakin for myself.

Is there no #2/#3 pitchers available at all? No one that is worse than Liriano, but better than Pavano? That would have been more to me and would fill a bigger need. I would have been good with that.

If those types of pitchers weren’t available then do nothing. Would some people have been mad at nothing? Yes, definitely. I would not be one of those people. If it is Capps or nothing, I would have said nothing, especially when the price is Ramos.

I feel like this was rushed. A move to make a move. Does it help the bullpen? Yes, I think so…Ramos-worthy help though? Put our BP over the top for the rest of the season? I don’t feel either of those questions lead me to a “yes” answer.

It feels like Ramos was treated like he needed to be traded now or never, like we only had him for this year and that’s it. Would Ramos’ stock have dropped so much that he would have been worth less than this in the offseason or later? I know it’s a possibility, but was it a huge possibility? I don’t feel like it was a huge possibility. If he had a season ending injury or career ending, yes, but otherwise I think his stock still should have been up.

We likely do need relievers next year too, so in a way he helps with that, though he will be expensive. I also think we still need a SP next year and that, to me, is more important. Using Ramos to get a good/great pitcher who would be here at least 1.5 years. We might even need two pitchers next year, if Pavano goes.

Like I said, I feel like he could have been had for more, if not now, then in the offseason. I was completely fine with holding on to him even until the start of next year or a little later.

so that all of you naysayers can feel good about yourselves. Is this an end of the world trade? Who cares? We needed a left-handed reliever and didn’t three back-up catchers. If Ramos didn’t go now he wouldn’t have gone this year and then everyone would be bitching that we didn’t make a move. Everything will be just fine. Morneau, Hudson, (Punto… maybe) off the DL will help and Duensing has been good so far. We’re JUST FINE.

It would have been stupid to Bill Smith to trade anyone other than Ramos. All the other prospects potentially have a future in the organization and Ramos had none. Couple that with the fact that he has had injuries and struggled mightily at AAA this year means that his value was low. They needed to strengthen the bullpen and they did so in a good way while paying the price with a 100% expendable asset. I find it nice to see them make this kind of move normally they hold on to prospects so incredibly tight I certainly don’t want even 2% of a Kenny Williams type mentality but I like them actually pulling the trigger on a prospect for major league help deal.

This line I’m seeing repeated isn’t defensible. It’s based on a small sample size for a young 22 year old in his first year at AAA. A couple OK months at AAA doesn’t mean he’s not the prospect everyone always pegged him as.

I’m basing his value on what he actually could get in the market.

Lee = no
Oswalt = [probably] no
Whatever is greater than Capps = no
Capps = yes

Ergo, that is his value. I may be a little naive, and that may be a bit simplistic, but I’ll give the front office enough credit they shopped Ramos enough to know this is what they could get. The other thing they have to be extremely careful of is not basing a move on what MAY happen in the future.

Would I have loved to see Wilson worth more? You bet I would, but the market says he wasn’t.

Let’s face it, Twins (Minnesota) fans are never happy, no matter what happens. Maybe those are the expectations we need to manage? Just sayin’