Are the Chicago White Sox For Real?
by Adam Peterson on Aug 10, 2010 3:00 AM EDT
in By the Numbers
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PrintWith just under two months remaining in the 2010 regular season, the Twins are now tied with the Chicago White Sox for the lead in the AL Central Division. Now the question on everyone's mind is who will prevail and win the division title? Because most of us eat, drink and breathe Twins Baseball throughout the season, we pretty much know what the Twins have. A solid starting rotation, better since Brian Duensing replaced Nick Blackburn, one that could be great if Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano keep up their solid performances and Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey return at least to historical norms of recent years. Throw in one of the American League's best offenses and lowest bullpen ERA, and you have a team that is expected to remain in the race until game #162 (or #163...).
What about the White Sox? After an epic collapse over the past couple months of the 2009 season, Chicago got off to a very slow start, sitting nine games under .500 at 24-33 as late as June 8th. At that point, I pretty much gave up on the Sox' chances to compete for a division title. Then interleague play came, and Chicago won 15 of 16 games to put themselves four games above .500 by the time interleague games were done. At this point, many of us suspected once games against the weaker NL teams were finished, the White Sox would fall back to earth. Instead, Chicago won nine straight entering the All Star Break and bounded to the front of the pack in the AL Central. And since the All Star Break, the White Sox have continued to play solid baseball, improving by another three games relative to .500, now sitting tied atop the division (barely) at 63-49.
The question of the day is, are the White Sox for real? Or are they playing above their heads (for three full months...), with a Detroit-like collapse awaiting them? After the jump, I'll examine a few arguments for and against the White Sox, attempting to remain as unbiased as possible against the Twins' chief division rival.
Yes, the White Sox Are For Real
- Their pitching staff is much better than they showed in April and May. Coming into the season, the one strength everyone expected from the White Sox was their starting pitching. With Mark Buerhle, John Danks, Jake Peavy and Gavin Floyd, Chicago had arguably the best 1-4 starters in the American League. But in April (where the Sox posted a 9-14 record), only Danks (1.55 April ERA) got off to a good start, as Buerhle (4.68), Floyd (6.49) and Peavy (7.85) struggled out of the gate. May wasn't much better, with Buerhle (4.03 May ERA) returning to norm and Danks (4.79), Peavy (5.09) and Floyd (5.63) continuing to struggle. But in June, the Sox pitchers regressed to the mean, with Peavy (1.75 June ERA), Floyd (2.58) and Danks (4.18) pitching well and only Buerhle (4.93) struggling. And in July, Floyd (0.80 July ERA), Danks (2.91) and Buerhle (3.00) all made up for Peavy's injury by posting some great starts. As a result, overall for the season, White Sox starters have a 3.98 ERA, right around where one would expect in the preseason. And down the stretch, consistent, solid starting pitching is absolutely key.
- Their offense is not nearly as poor as April and May suggested. Looking at the White Sox month by month totals over April (.698 OPS, 4.0 runs per game), May (.720, 4.4), June (.749, 4.6) and July (.824, 5.4), Chicago's offense has improved each and every month. While I don't expect the Sox to keep up an 800+ team OPS, there is a lot of offensive talent on the roster, especially when Paul Konerko is hitting over .300 with 28 home runs.
- The White Sox have been there before. While there may not be many players left over from the 2005 World Series Champions, a number of key veterans including Buerhle, Konerko, A.J. Pierzynski and Bobby Jenks anchor this ballclub. Yes, the Twins caught Chicago in 2008 to force a Game #163, but that year it wasn't a matter of the White Sox falling back to earth as much as the Twins getting hot and sweeping head to head the last week of the season.
No, the White Sox Are Going to Stumble
- The values just don't quite add up. Looking solely at components of Wins Above Replacement (WAR), the White Sox pitching staff has a +41.4 run advantage over the Twins (178.5 to 137.1 RAR), one that is more than eclipsed by the Twins +74,.4 run advantage (+77.3 to +2.9 RAA) at the plate. So at the plate and on the mound, the Twins have over a 30 run advantage over the White Sox. In the field according to UZR, the Twins also have a healthy 39.1 run advantage (+22.7 to -16.4 UZR) defensively. Add to that an 11.9 run advantage in the "little things" I wrote about in July (+10.5 to -1.4 RAA), and you have a more than healthy 84 run advantage when comparing the Twins and White Sox head to head. Sure, Chicago has shown consistent improvement month to month, and the early season totals may not have been indicative of the Sox' true talent, but 84 runs is a HUGE advantage in the raw numbers, one that is even greater than the Twins current advantage in run differential (+97 to +61).
- Even without the Metrodome, the Twins are in Chicago's head. Say what you want about Ozzie Guillen, but he's not exactly a manager that keeps a team on an even keel or remains steadfast when a team struggles. The Twins have nine games left against the White Sox, 6 in Chicago and 3 in Minnesota. After an ugly series in Baltimore, losing three of four against the last place (but rebounding with Buck Showalter at the helm) Orioles, if the Twins are able to take two of three this week in Chicago, the White Sox may find it difficult to win with their hands around their throats.
- Edwin Jackson isn't the answer. So far after two starts with the White Sox, Jackson has an outstanding 1.38 ERA, but this came against the Detroit Tigers, who are starting to see the wheels fall off what looked like a promising season, and the Baltimore Orioles, who simply don't have much offensively. Wake me when he faces a real AL offense, a guy with a 5+ ERA in the National League isn't going to be the answer down the stretch, even if he is a #4 or #5 starter.
In all, any team with Buerhle, Danks and Floyd atop the rotation is going to remain competitive. But with Liriano and Pavano, the Twins match up at the #1 and #2 spots, and the advantage is so large offensively, defensively and outside the box score ("little things") that one has to give the clear advantage to Minnesota down the stretch, especially when Justin Morneau comes back. But it's an advantage that exists solely on paper. The nine games head to head are most likely going to decide the division title. If the Twins win at least four of those games, then I think the Twins will be playoff bound. Any fewer than that and it's going to be a real dogfight.
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I've
Note: all the following is said in the context that I’ve not been able to pay much attention to the MLB this summer because I’ve been broadcasting in a summer college league, so I’m not totally sure what’s going on.
I was never impressed by the White Sox, and I don’t think they’ve changed. I thought their starting rotation was very solid, but more established and quality than actually dominant. THat’s still strong, but their offense is pretty mediocre and their D is just really bad. THeir bullpen is fine. I think all that adds up to maybe a team a couple of games over .500.
Nobody on that team is really shocking me or the world with huge performances like they all did in 2005, so I still don’t see why the Twins should have any problems. When the Twins were up I said “I don’t think the Sox are very good” and when they were down I said “I still don’t think the Sox are really that good, and hopefully by the time my summer season is over, the Twins will be winning games again (which hey, they are now.”
But at some point, wins and losses count and evidence starts to mount one way or another, so while I still don’t think the Sox are so good, they sure have been fine up until now…
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
Thank you.
As usual, a well-researched breakdown.
We’re spoiled here.
by drew10 on Aug 10, 2010 4:21 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
+1
The best single contribution I have made to this site is to convince Jesse to make Adam a senior writer.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
You made great contributions here, but this was a big one. And at the time...
I was all “NO NO NO NO NO NO LALALALALALALALALALA I CAN’T HEAR YOU” and cmath was all “Dude, chill.” Thusly, I chilled.
Actually I didn’t even remember that conversation. Thanks for reminding me!
I think the White Sox are for real.
As usual Williams makes some dubious decisions, but they help as well as haunt—for every player that sucks or got hurt, another player is contributing. Mark the Undead, Danks and Floyd are certainly good pitchers, and if they all pitch well down the stretch then it will be game on.
Even where the Twins were concerned over the last few years, with what was perceived to be a squad of less talent they still managed to contend. Because of recent history I think the situation is reversed this year, where most people will pick the Twins to win the division. But I’d be surprised if the White Sox faded away.
They have the resources
They can pick up a bat in a waiver deal yet. They could get another middling arm too. I think the Twins are better but that doesn’t always matter.
I think they're for real too...
and unfortunately I screwed up the punchline in the article, but while I don’t think the White Sox will collapse like they did last year, I do think they’re clearly a few wins below the Twins over a full season. That may translate to a win or two over the last two months, of course everything else being equal, which it certainly won’t be over a 50 game sample size. Chicago has already benefited to the tune of 2-3 games due to vastly different interleague schedules. Now we’re tied and it’s going to come down to head to head matchups, the majority of which are in Chicago.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 10, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
It will be a good race
I think we match up well against them. But I expect it to go down to the last week.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
GAME 163 OR BUST!!!
WE GOT JIMMERS THIS TIME!!!
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
Minnesota Twins 2010: GAME 163 OR BUST!!!
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Aug 10, 2010 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
50 games left
Both the Twins and the Sox have had their down times and their hot streaks. Chicago’s was more pronounced, but one has to say with only 50 games left that it’s a jump ball as to who wins the Central. There is no huge schedule difference and both teams have identical records home and away. The Twins biggest advantage is that they have winning records against all Central Division rivals including the Sox.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Aug 10, 2010 7:19 AM EDT reply actions
I sort of think the White Sox are trash,
but I guess at this point you have to give them your grudging respect. I tend to totally write off certain Sox players who are actually pretty good. Paul Konerko is (1) the boringest first baseman in baseball and (2) old, but he’s actually still pretty decent. I think of Rios as a huge contract bust, but look at Rios versus Torii Hunter at the same age: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?playerid2=2090&playerid3=731&playerid4=&playerid5=. And who do you think is the best shortstop in the AL so far this year? http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=n&type=6&season=2010&month=0. Their starters get the press, but by WAR, they have the best reliever in the AL (Thornton), 2 of the top 5 (Putz at #5), and 4 of the top 20 (Jenks and Santos too). Matt Capps would just barely crack the top 20 in the AL if you count his NL work this year and no other Twin would make the cut. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=al&qual=y&type=6&season=2010&month=0
I think the Twins are better and I like our chances, but the battle is not always to the strong. If the Sox are good enough to get where they are now, they’re good enough to win it.
bobby jenks
talk about a player whose head the twins have gotten into. twins embarrass that guy routinely.
Well, we think you're trash too. :P
Also, I hope Paulie hits a walk off in the series to prove to you that he is exciting. Rios has actually been playing up to his salary for the most part. Our pitching is better than yours, period. Our offense is mediocre, and not as good as yours, (period). Our defense is actually pretty solid, and better than the stats say. The stats are comprehensive, and we play alot of shitty defenders. I’ll admit not as good as yours though.
I’d say all in all, you’re better on paper. I think it’s going to end pretty close however. I’d be worried if we add the LH power bat we need.
Time to call in the Q!avalry.
by ScottyPods Ver2.0 on Aug 10, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Their Rotation was what really scared me
However with Peavey out and Buehrle appearing to be on the decline I’m not really worried about that anymore. They’ve been hot but the run differential shows the truth. We’ve been the better team but so far only have a tie to show for it. If both teams continue the way they have we should come out on top.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
shows the truth about what?
As I point out below run differential matter less as the season progresses.
"it’s over, tdogg.
no. it’s not unlike me. when i make an unqualified statement, it means i’m sure i’m right" Larry
Well . .
I actually like your point. Run differential does show how a team should be doing. So to this point the fact that the Twins have a much better run differential shows they should have won more and SHOULD be the better team. Before last night the two were even. It’s the same as xFIP or FIP in comparison to ERA. After awhile you have to stop looking at how a pitcher should be doing and how they are actually doing. So same goes with your point.
Buerhle and Blackburn(until this season) were two pitchers who had consistently outpitched their FIP xFIP by posting ERA’s Blackburn fell back to earth this year in a hard way. Buerhle obviously continues to do so and is just one of those guys. So I’m open to believing the Sox are one of those teams but I also feel that if they both put up the same run differential they have over the first 2/3s of the season then the Twins will come out on top of the division.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Buehrle outpitches his FIP every year
This is not an anomaly, this is a flaw in using FIP as a predictor. Part of this is Buehrle is an outstanding defender which makes the “fielding independent” part of the metric less able to predict his performance on the mound.
It's an outlier to a formula
Most formulas will have anomalies outliers whatever you want. Yes it is a flaw in FIP xFIP but it is also an anomaly for that formula. If it was the norm people wouldn’t use FIP xFIP as a predictor. Now I haven’t done heavy research but who are some other starters that regularly out do their FIP xFIP with better ERA’s
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
No statistical formula fits every case
It is interesting to ask why he’s an outlier. But outliers are not flaws in a statistical model. They’re expected.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Pickoffs
The fact that Buerhle is able to pick off so many runners and keep the others on first base also has to help his ERA versus FIP/xFIP, which don’t take it into consideration.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 11, 2010 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Good thoughts above from Adam. I agree with the final analysis generally and would give the Twins a 55/45 chance right now. Couple notes to add from the perspective of a Twins fan living in enemy territory:
- Mentally, this Sox team is a little different than the last few years’ squads. They were left for dead by the end of May, so these last couple months of playing out of their minds has been like a resurrection for them. They seem pretty loosey goosey right now and having the time of their lives in this bonus, found season. It feels to me like they knew the Twins would be there nipping at their heels, but they’re just pleased to be in the race, so there’s less hands around throats than usual.
- That said, it’s possible the 10 runs scored in a four game set with Baltimore is evidence they were looking in the rearview mirror and thinking about this week’s games with us.
- The x factor for them that Adam didn’t mention has been Freddy Garcia. He shut us down once already, and has managed to pile up 10 wins in the 5th starter spot. His ERA’s a respectable, not great 4.40, but compare that to Blackburn’s spot for us, and the depth in their rotation becomes clear.
- I think we should be a little concerned about Edwin Jackson’s possible impact, despite his not facing good offenses yet. He’s got a track record and great stuff, and Don Cooper has a knack for making mental outlook changes in guys like Jackson and watching them blossom. He’s kind of the opposite of Rick Anderson, who specializes in creating passable major league pitchers out of middling talent. Cooper’s more of a reclamation artist.
All that said, it can’t be avoided that the third best hitter on the White Sox this season has been…Omar Vizquel. Konerko and Rios are having legitimately excellent years, but the rest of that lineup is garbage. They all got “hot” at the same time over June and July, raising their collective stats, but Beckham, Kotsay and Pierzynski all have terrible numbers on the year, Ramirez is basically Jose Valentin, and Quentin is in a season-long slump in which he occasionally homers. You can pitch around Konerko pretty easily at the moment, especially after the putrid offensive series they had against Baltimore and their awful pitching. If we can take two of these three, the Sox have the tougher schedule the rest of the way, we can still look forward to getting Morneau back at some point, and I think we’re in the driver’s seat.
Great writeup, and we are spoiled...
seriously, posts and community interaction on Twinkie Town are head and shoulders above South Side Sox.
Win Twins!
Yeah that's unbiased
lol.
"it’s over, tdogg.
no. it’s not unlike me. when i make an unqualified statement, it means i’m sure i’m right" Larry
Not at all...
I read a number of SB Nation team blogs regularly, and they are not all created equal. Just look at the quality/depth of recent posts on each site… all the proof you need.
by twinpirate326 on Aug 10, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Well my intent is not get into a pissing match over best site
Over at SSS we have fun and don’t take ourselves too seriously. Topics occasionally stray but for the most part we get along. We understand the numbers and do our best to transfer that knowledge to the mainstream. Im sure your criteria for success and quality is different then mine.
"it’s over, tdogg.
no. it’s not unlike me. when i make an unqualified statement, it means i’m sure i’m right" Larry
Heh.
Time to call in the Q!avalry.
by ScottyPods Ver2.0 on Aug 10, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
good analysis
I would love to dismiss the Sox by pointing out that they’re only tied with the Twins because they got to play the Cubs (two series), Nationals, Marlins and Pirates in interleague play, but they did also sweep a home series with the Braves in June, too. In the end, they did just what the Twins have been known to do a few times… use a favorable interleague schedule to get hot, build confidence and get back in the race.
They’ve come back down to earth recently and now would be a good time to remind them of their rightful place in the standings… looking up at the Twins. The Orioles took 3 of 4 largely by pitching around Rios and Konerko but the question is whether Anderson’s staff of “pitch to contact” guys will be willing to do the same. The Cell is not a friendly ballpark for fly ball pitchers who pitch to contact.
Even if we only win one game this series
We’re still only 1 game back. And we’ll have them at home next. They go on to face NY and Boston. Yikes.
The beard abides.
by Jason Kubel's Beard on Aug 10, 2010 11:45 AM EDT reply actions
Schedules are even...
Yes, they get Boston and NY but we line up with 7 vs Texas (w/ Lee now) and 6 vs Oakland who has the best team ERA in the AL (Ok, tied w/ TB). I like our lineup but it seems like we struggle vs elite pitchers, there have been very few times this year where I’ve felt confident, despite our league leading BA, going up against most #1’s and even some # 2’s. And Texas / Oakland have some great pitchers. Maybe it will come down to game 163, this time it won’t be a coinflip giving Chicago the home field advantage and Target Field will be rockin.
We have actually done pretty well against elite pitchers this year.
(Santana, Haliday, Felix, Price)
|I worry when we are hitting against a guy who is making his 2nd start and has terrible starts.
We seem to enjoy helping out the youngsters with their confidence.
I always loved that one.
I was going to say the same thing
I honestly believe that if the Twins fall short, it will be because the Blue Jays called up two guys from AA for a “look” in September and they both shut out the Twins on the final weekend.
I don't like facing the Blue Jays to end the season
They have serious power and the Twins always have a hard time with the Jays.
If by pretty well you mean...
vs Price: 2ER in 15 innings (Granted we’re 2-0 because of great pitching those games).
vs Hernandez: 4ER in 15 innings (Though we only scored in 2 innings)
We did get to Halladay and Santana but have struggled with Verlander and however many young call-ups we decide to make look like Cy Young.
At the same time, if we take care of business vs 3/4/5 in the rotation we’ll be playing meaningful ball in Oct, at that point we had better be ready to play against the big boys.
you guys cant claim to lose to call-ups
thats our shtick.
Go Sox.
that one funny thing that guy said yesterday
Add beat Cy Young
Twins have beaten Grienke three times including the 19-1 rout in KC.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Aug 10, 2010 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Haha.
Yeah. Some cruddy left hander who spent half the season in AAA is usually who I dread seeing. The Indians seem to stockplie them.
That bodes well for Perkins
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
It shouldn't matter if they are for real
We need to take care of our own business.
Personally, I think they’ve just been a hot streak and they’ll come back to earth at some point. But we can’t think that way or we’re in for another Game 163 regardless of whether we end the season at 94 wins or 86 wins.
Few things from a Sox fan
Well written and unbiased (as much as can be)article from a Twins fan.
In response to a few of the comments.
1) without commenting on the Jackson trade forget about “when he faces a real AL offense” . The Sox have already outlined his schedule and it consist of Balt twice, KC twice, Detroit 3 times, Clev twice, Oak and finally Boston.
2)The Sox are not just on a hot streak. Even with the Balt letdown they won 39 out 55 games for a .700 winning percentage for a third of the season. Of course this is not a .700 winning clip team but its long past the thought of this team will come back to earth and finish somewhere around .500 (injuries aside of course). Besides we are past the point of run differential. Your actually record matters more. That said the team was -20 at the end of April and stand at 60+ now.
3)Total team UZR is heavily weighted by a few poor performers. The normal defense is actually very good besides right field. Konerko is limited by range. But 3b, SS, 2b, CF and LF are all avg to above avg. Jones plays right in late innings to give them a really good defensive unit.
4)The formula remains stellar pitching and an avg offense, something you point out the offensive side has done lately. The key remains Quentin though. He has not been in a season long slump. Before the allstar break his numbers have been prominent in the offensive uplifting. Baltimore did pitch around Konerko late in the series to get to him. Quentin has been a different player at home this year. .977 OPS
Personally I feel the Twins are probably a better overall team but the roles have certainly been reversed in the past. I like the fact that we have 6 of the remaining 9 vs the Twins at home. But the remaining schedules in term of strength and games is so close its almost scary. It should be a great end of the season.
And contrary to popular belief I don’t think the WC is over.
"it’s over, tdogg.
no. it’s not unlike me. when i make an unqualified statement, it means i’m sure i’m right" Larry
I'm right with you
Probably my biggest bias is with Edwin Jackson, he just feels like a ticking time bomb to me. If he ends up pitching the schedule you indicate, he may be successful. But it only takes one rainout to throw that all out of whack. Then again, the Sox are depending on Jackson to be their #5 guy, not a #2.
Agree, it’s not just a hot streak for Chicago, they’re not a .700 club, nor are they a .500 club either. Though I disagree that run differential does not matter. It is a useful tool to determine whether a team may be playing a bit over or under their heads relative to their actual record. I don’t see any reason to believe just because we’re 2/3 through the season why it should be ignored or discounted.
UZR is what it is, a model. Yes, it’s weighted by a few poor performers, same as team ERA, batting average, etc. But I haven’t gone into the player by player numbers and seen many games on TV. But since UZR does consider errors, that’s a clear negative, around a 15 run difference between Chicago and Minnesota solely due to errors committed.
I’m right with you, Minnesota is probably a better overall team by around a couple games. But moving forward, chances are the home-road head to head advantage makes it around a 50-50 proposition.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 10, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
There is a piece on hardball times?
on run differential. I believe it was Tango (again not 100% sure who did the study). The point was sometime in early July actually wins and loses becomes superior to run differential. It was pretty clear cut. I’ll search for it if I get a chance.
Again this was a pretty good piece from the enemy. Props. Most people on fan sites can’t put aside their natural bias.
"it’s over, tdogg.
no. it’s not unlike me. when i make an unqualified statement, it means i’m sure i’m right" Larry
I'd love to see this article
as it goes against my own understanding…I remember after the 2008 (might have been 2007) season, the Mariners had a good record, around 87 wins but with a negative run differential, and sure enough they regressed in a big way the following year.
Suppose it’s a matter of sample size, eventually you would expect W-L to approach expected based on run differential. But we probably need to better understand any skill-based reasons for a difference.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 10, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I emailed Dave from hardballtimes.
He says it was actually a BP article from Davenport and few others in a roundtable and that it was very interesting. I will find it yet!
"it’s over, tdogg.
no. it’s not unlike me. when i make an unqualified statement, it means i’m sure i’m right" Larry
Thanks man
I look forward to seeing it. At some point the sample size is large enough that W-L record is going to be a better predictor of future performance. Just seems like July is a bit early to me.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 10, 2010 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions
It's the strong counterbalance bias that our team will find some way to fail horribly.
Scandinavian influence, y’know.
Home record
The White Sox just went on a stretch where they were 19-2 at home and we are still tied with them. Eventually they will quit playing .900 baseball at home, and once that happens I think we will be fine.
by Run Delmon Run on Aug 10, 2010 12:36 PM EDT reply actions
works both ways.
They played 5 games under at home thru the first 30. They also are one the few teams with a winning (barely) road record.
"it’s over, tdogg.
no. it’s not unlike me. when i make an unqualified statement, it means i’m sure i’m right" Larry
This week
Twins need to win in Chicago. I have confidence the Twins can beat the White Sox. Ozzie is one of the few managers worse at tactics than Gardenhire.
I think we can legitimately take 2 -3
Delmon Young is my new Bicycle.
by Zack Carlson on Aug 10, 2010 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
you know something named Glen Perkins is pitching for you guys, right?
that one funny thing that guy said yesterday
The real question is "WWWD"
What Will Williams Do?
It just doesn’t seem to be in his nature to sit by and let his team ride without trying to be proactive. I have to figure he’ll add a bat yet this month and the down side to the possibility of the Twins moving up in to first place would be that they’d be unable to even consider a preventive waiver claim.
I'm not surpised Chicago is right there with us
I felt because of their pitching, they would be a tough team. When I looked at the offense, I thought it could be average to above average…which is good enough for a stud staff on paper.
I’m not surprised they are there with us, but I’d be surprised if they were ahead of us in the end. I think we’re 4-5 wins better.
Detroit was the team that I thought..wtf are they doing so close to us? At the beginning of the year, there was no way I thought they’d be anywhere near us. To me the staff looked like Verlander alone and the hitting looked like Cabrera and Ordonez.
For the most part, minus some very hot streaks by hitters, it still is that. They’re 9 back, like they should be.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
The thing is this year Cabrera alone was almost enough.
I’m just happy his team is probably not going to allow him to win the MVP this year.
I know, it's kind of amazing
He completely carries that team and it’s nothing new. I hate him, but he’s good.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
Haven't you heard?
Everyone loses to the Indians. Even you.
Time to call in the Q!avalry.
by ScottyPods Ver2.0 on Aug 10, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Some teams that took series from us at target field
Yankees
Rays
…
Cleveland
Delmon Young is my new Bicycle.
by Zack Carlson on Aug 10, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
It's okay. We all lose to them.
They’re AL Central juggernauts.
Time to call in the Q!avalry.
by ScottyPods Ver2.0 on Aug 10, 2010 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn't this kind of irrelevant now?
Their record is 20-21 with the majority of their losses coming at the beginning of the season when they lost to everyone.
"it’s over, tdogg.
no. it’s not unlike me. when i make an unqualified statement, it means i’m sure i’m right" Larry
Irrelevant to a degree, yes, but...
On the off chance that the Sox win 6 out of the remaining 9 games with the Twins AND these teams end up tied after 162 games, they’ll also have equivalent 9-9 records head-to-head. The next tiebreaker to determine home field for game 163 is record within the division. That rough start in division games won’t be totally irrelevant at that point.
It may be silly to be thinking much about a potential game 163 at this point, but when you’ve gone through that process two years in a row, it never completely leaves the back of your mind.
I notice your write up left out Sweaty Freddy Garcia.
While the other pitchers we have are flashier and have better stats, Freddy has been the most consistant of our staff, giving up about 3 runsish every game, and always giving us a chance to win. There’s alot of days I’d take him over Buehrle.
Time to call in the Q!avalry.
by ScottyPods Ver2.0 on Aug 10, 2010 4:05 PM EDT reply actions
I didn't focus on Garcia
tonight’s 2.1 inning performance notwithstanding, because he’s a #5 bottom of the rotation guy who has put up decent numbers. The Sox gave up a pretty good prospect in order to get him, and I don’t think he’s the answer. But I’m also not an expert on who Chicago had as their last starter before the trade.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 10, 2010 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s always a season of streaks, good and bad. Gut feeling is that the Twins still haven’t put everything together, and the Sox have. Don’t count on the whities to slow down but also don’t think the Twins don’t have a streak of their own left.
Other random gut feeling is that the Wild Card race isn’t over, and both the Twins and Whities could be cheering for KC in the last series of the year.
The only thing that is certain is that Hawk Harrelson is awful, and not getting any better.
Wild Card Race...and Hawk
Tampa is in big trouble, they may very well fall back and make a race of it. But I think it’s more likely that Boston ends up a few games clear of whoever ends up second in the AL Central.
And yes, Hawk is awful. As a Twins fan, it was awesome to hear him call the July ninth inning meltdown, as the Sox walked off.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 10, 2010 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Injuries happen but.........
I did a quick recap (so if I missed something corrections are welcome) but the DL time difference between these two teams really shows how good the Twins actually are/can be.
Twins Starters who have missed time on the DL:
Morneau- 27 games and counting (one DL stint)
Hardy- 40 games (two DL stints)
Hudson-30 games (two DL stints)
Punto-23 games (two DL stints)
Nathan-every game! (one really long DL stint)
Tolbert/Condrey/Mijares-Less note worthy players who have spent DL time
Sox Starters who have missed time on the DL:
Jake Peavy-Lots of games and is going to miss the rest of the seaons (one DL stint)
Teahen/Threets-Less note worthy players who have spent DL time
I’m sure I missed Sox starters/players who have missed time on DL stints and I would love for a more informed Sox fan to correct me. I understand that injuries are part of the game, but after so many injuries (our whole infield outside of Mauer) have spend significant time on the DL and we are still tied for first. That has to count for something.
Sorry for spelling/gramMORE problems
I should have gone over this better before posting but was typing this at work on the low-low.
Also, I would like to add in that one thing the AL Central has taught us the past few years is it’s going to be a close race to the end.
Quentin has been banged up if not on the DL several times this year, including right now.
as well as Gordon Beckham pulling a groin or something this weekend, which could hurt us since hes been on fire.
I believe the Sox trainer to be the best in the business. Couple that with Ozzie’s usually awful Sunday afternoon line ups to rest nearly everyone and the Sox should be the envy of the league from a health standpoint.
I agree that this thing should go down to the wire and would be disappointed if it didnt.
What I feel is the Sox biggest advantage is the sizable amount of games left vs Detroit, who are obviously not the ok team they were a mere month ago.
that one funny thing that guy said yesterday
It only counts for something if guys come back 100%
Otherwise, you’re just talking about a bunch of banged up guys playing at 80%.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 10, 2010 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions
A note on how they got here, and what they have left.
Twins
vs. AL East: 14-18
vs. AL Central: 29-16 (7-5 vs CLE, 6-3 vs CHI, 7-5 vs DET, 9-3 vs KC)
vs. AL West: 12-5
WSox
vs. AL East: 8-14
vs. AL Central: 20-21 (4-8 vs CLE, 3-6 vs MIN, 6-2 vs DET, 7-5 vs KC)
vs. AL West: 20-11
Twins have 27 games remaining against their own division and they have a winning record against all of them. The WSox have 31 games remaining against their own division and 15 of those games are against teams they have a losing record against.
The Twins also have a better record against every AL division. The only reason the WSox are tied with the Twins right now is because of interleague games against the awful Pirates, Marlins, Cubs, Nationals, and an admittedly good Braves team. Meanwhile, the Twins got the Phillies, Mets, Brewers, Braves, and Rockies. By no means did the Twins face a lot of ELITE talent in the NL, but it’s obvious they had the tougher schedule.
The toughest games (outside of the division) left on the Twins schedule include 7 against the Rangers (a team they swept earlier this year), 6 against Oakland, 4 against Toronto, and 3 against the Angels. The Twins have a winning record against all of those teams except Toronto (2-3). Meanwhile, the WSox have 7 against Boston, 3 against Oakland, 3 against the Angels, 3 against the Yankees. They have a losing record to the Yankees, a 3-3 record with Oakland, a winning record with the Angels, and have not seen Boston yet this year. No clear advantage here, but in my opinion, the Twins schedule is favorable because I’d rather avoid the Red Sox and Yankees.
Good luck with those thoughts and facing Lee
a couple times. The winning percentage of the opponents is the same for the rest of the year and we don’t know how these teams will be playing at the time. Boston for instance could be fighting for a wild card or mailing it in to end the season. Focus on “how they got there all you want” at the end of the season the team with the most wins moves on. The only “reason” the White Sox are in it is because they played .700 baseball for 1/3 of the season. Let me try that again. They played .700 baseball for a 55 game stretch. Sorry Bud the cocky arrogance point is long passed and laughable at this point.
"it’s over, tdogg.
no. it’s not unlike me. when i make an unqualified statement, it means i’m sure i’m right" Larry
only half of his post focused on the past, the other half focused on what's left.
Sorry Bud the cocky arrogance point is long passed and laughable at this point.
Sorry Bud, but if you don’t like the slant toward aTwins based homerism around here take your self-righteous mouthiness back to your own site.
My life's goal: to force fischean itno using her moderator powers
by montanatwinsfan on Aug 10, 2010 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions
really
sox troll wants to convert us….lol, i realizes that as much as I hate the Yankees(a lot), I hate the Sox worse. Everything about them, their fans, their announcers, their idiot manager, their cesspool city, their uniforms, I HATE CHICAGO!!!!!!! This includes the Bulls, Cubs, Bears(especially), and Blackhawks.
i can't comment on the delmon fisting thing.
by carlpavanosmoustache on Aug 10, 2010 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions
gotta spellcheck before I post, meant to say realized
realizes in that sentence makes me sound like I'm from Chicago
i can't comment on the delmon fisting thing.
by carlpavanosmoustache on Aug 10, 2010 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
Definitely not a troll. He has a great point. Any team that plays .700 baseball over a third of the season is “for real”. Sure, they’re not a .700 club (who is?), but they’re not sub .500 either. Where I think Chicago can get into trouble is with consistency (lack thereof). They could be due for an extended cold streak. Probably not 55 games, but possibly a 2-8 stretch as the homers slow down.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 11, 2010 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Quality of opponents
I think the Sox are a .550 team or so. They were 13-2 against the NL this year. They sept the Pirates, Nationals and Braves while winning their two series against the Cubs. Against the AL, they’re two games over .500.
Not all of it is quality of opponent, but they definitely got hot in interleague play, and it’s a lot easier to get hot against the Pirates and Nationals than the Phillies and Mets.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Was gone for awhile and didnt see your response
Not really my intent. Apologies.
"it’s over, tdogg.
no. it’s not unlike me. when i make an unqualified statement, it means i’m sure i’m right" Larry
If Lee pitches every fifth game we'll miss him entirely.
Could change, of course.
That would be nice, but it will probably change
with a rainout or two, skipping someone’s start due to an off day, etc.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 11, 2010 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Rangers don't have any reason to skip starts at this point.
They have to be thinking about keeping their best pitchers on a normal schedule for the playoffs already. I’m cautiously optimistic.
Sorry Bud the cocky arrogance point is long passed and laughable at this point.
Okay, BUD.
Cocky arrogance? In what way was this comment cocky or arrogant? In fact, everything I said in the post is simply FACTS, except for maybe a sentence or two. For example, my opinion that the Twins schedule is favorable, which I clearly marked as an opinion in the comment.
By no means did I intend this comment to mean “there is no competition, the Twins will win the division, to hell with the rest of the games.” I was trying to remain as objective as I can while informing people of how each team got to where they are, and how the schedules stack up for the rest of the season.
I understand the WSox played .700 baseball for a 55-game stretch. And a large portion of that was beating up on the cellar dwellers in the NL. As noted by someone else, if you look at the numbers against the AL, the Twins have a much better record (56-39 vs. 48-47). And neither team gets to play against cellar-dwelling NL teams for the rest of the year. So in my OPINION, we have a favorable schedule and a favorable record against the teams we will be playing against.
But as far as cocky arrogance goes, compare my post with yours and see where you end up.
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