Will J.J. Hardy be non-tendered?
by lazers on Aug 16, 2010 11:21 AM EDT
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PrintMlbtraderumors just put up a list of players going to arbitration in the off-season. They're separated into two categories: Expected to be tendered contracts AND Non-tender candidates. Kubel and Capps are in the first list. Clay Condrey is rightfully in the second list. As is J.J. Hardy, with the second highest salary, behind the guy with the super-douchey facial hair, Mr. Jenks.
I think they're right about Kubel, Capps, and Condrey. But I have no idea what the Twins will do with Hardy. Plouffe has looked good when he's been up, like he can hold his own. Hardy seems to be the obvious better defender and, with power coming for Plouffe, they look like similar hitters, assuming J.J. can stay healthy and Plouffe can translate his AAA numbers to the bigs. I like Hardy; I think, when he's on the field, he's a good second-tier shortstop, with All-Star potential. But is he worth 5+ million more than Plouffe?
And, because I think someone might mention it, their is always the option of playing the infuriatingly inconsistent Alexi Casilla at shortstop.
Talk amongst yourselves.
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This is an outsiders perspective, and the same perspective that brought you the question "Will Delmon Young Be Non-Tendered?"
If you follow the team, I’d be surprised to hear you think JJ would be non-tendered. He’s been hitting better and he’s a great shortstop. Health is always a risk, but I’d risk it on him.
They have it backward
I think Capps is a more likely nontender than Hardy is. Hardy’s in line for, what, $7-8 million? That’s not all that much more than Capps will get (my guess is $6M), and an elite defensive shortstop with a passable bat is far more valuable than an above-average reliever. Hardy might be overpaid at that price, but considering that they traded for him just this year, I would be shocked if they don’t give him one more year, even given the current payroll situation.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Capps will be back
The GM came out and said one of the main reasons they parted with Ramos for Capps was because they would keep Capps as an insurance policy against Nathan for next season. If the Twins’ experience with Liriano is any indication, year one back from TJ is gonna be shaky at best.
Agreed
I was just thinking that if they only offer one of them arbitration, Hardy’s more likely than Capps.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Unless one Mr. Nathan is ready
and Capps struggles down the stretch
+1 on Hardy
Though I think it’s extremely unlikely they nontender Capps, absent a really bad season finish. Both will be solid buys, but not bargains.
I'm pretty sure
They said that about Hardy too in the Gomez trade. These are two players who they want around next year. And I want them too!
I think they'll keep him
For a number of reasons, including A Good Shortstop is Hard to Find (by Flannery O’Connor), he’s one of two remaining pieces of the Santana trade, and I think he’s young enough to get/stay healthy next year.
I just thought it was an interesting take by mlbtraderumors. I’m with BeefMaster; I think the Capps situation will be an interesting one. Especially given that the majority of the bullpen will be in flux.
I think it's highly likely that they keep him
He’s performing about as well as to be expected- and he’s been much better after coming back from the DL. His average could be up around .270 if he and the coaching staff didn’t try to have him play through the wrist injury the first time around.
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smith's ego
Smith’s ego will keep him from non-tendering either of these guys. Its hard to admit you made a dumb trade.
That and they're not going to be grossly overpaid
The downside for each guy is you paid them $1M too much. Compare that to the resources required to replace them and the possibility of draft pick compensation when they become free agents and it’s an easy choice to offer arbitration.
?
Because Gomez is having such a stellar year? Or are you referring to Capps?
The Twins ended their slump about the time that Hardy came back
I think he’s the best shortstop we’ve had since Gagne, and I liked Bartlett a lot. He is a tough out when the game is on the line. He has some of that Dan Gladden grit to him.
I like the reference to the golden years.
Twice!
by z-squad on Aug 16, 2010 2:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I like the reference to the golden years.
Twice!
by z-squad on Aug 16, 2010 2:58 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It's only a list of players who might be non-tendered, not a prediction of who will be
and they are probably basing it on each player’s expected salary relative to his preceived market value. I’m almost 100% certain the Twins will keep Hardy. His defense is outstanding and his bat is coming around, but I think the Twins will at least consider other options before making the decision to stick with Hardy. Not because he isn’t a good player, but because he is getting expensive.
They could sign him to a two - three year deal for less money/year?
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by montanatwinsfan on Aug 16, 2010 1:07 PM EDT reply actions
They might or might not keep him
(my guess is that they will), but if they don’t, it won’t be because they are ready to give the job to Plouffe or Casilla. They will try to find someone else if they let Hardy go.
We Are the Washington Generals
by Eric in Madison on Aug 16, 2010 1:28 PM EDT reply actions
Hudson is a free agent
Casilla can only fill one spot. If Hudson doesn’t return they HAVE to keep Hardy around.
Yes
But both Plouffe and Casilla will be on the team next year with Nick Punto playing second and Plouffe and Casilla starting at Short. The Twins have more pressing concerns. Do you resign the bullpen free agents or allow them to walk while throwing a three year deal in Cliff Lee’s face for him to pitch at Target Field which is a better ballpark for him than the one he is currently pitching in? Unless Rauch, Guerrer, and Crain all resign, Matt Capps will be back.
Also, chances are that we will only resign Jesse Crain while Jon Rauch will likely sign with one of the Chicago teams. That leaves four people fighting for two positions. Cliff Lee and Carl Pavano for a pitching spot and Jim Thome and somebody else fighting for the DH position. My guess is Manny Ramirez who could play some DH and Short while Thome retires. As for the pitching, my guess is that Cliff Lee signs a five year deal with the Mets as it would be his way of screwing the Phillies who should have kept him anyway. My best bet is that Carl Pavano stays and takes a one year deal while giving the three year deal to Brandon Webb who will be a Free Agent.
by Jessy S on Aug 16, 2010 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
That's a horrible plan
Non-tender Hardy, don’t pursue Hudson and pick up Punto’s option? Ugh.
Hardy/Hudson is worth 5-10 more wins than Plouffe/Casilla.
Pavano is not going to stay for a 1 year deal. This is his last shot at a multi-year contract. The Twins are not signing Cliff Lee either. Nick Blackburn has the best shot at the open rotation spot.
Did you really write that Manny Ramirez could play SS for the Twins?
Brilliant!
Sign Manny to play short, and then run Thome out there to play second! It’s a gold glove infield!
Seriously though, I don’t know that both Hudson and Hardy will be back. My guess is they let Orlando walk and keep JJ, then let Casilla have another shot at the second base job. They’ll definitely keep Capps. I think the big question is what the rotation will look like—I have a feeling somebody’s going to offer Pavano more money and years than we should really be giving him.
But maybe Cliff Lee will sign at a discount once he sees the Manny/Thome double play combination behind him!
We should also see about getting Adam Dunn at 3B
As far as first, I think we all know that Justin Morneau’s career is over. BUT… a concussion would only affect him if he moved around, right? So we just have to make sure he doesn’t move too much and he’s ok. So we just force Morneau to wear shoes made of concrete, then he can’t move too fast and his concussion won’t affect him. Sure it limits his range, but it keeps his bat in the lineup. But “concrete shoe therapy,” as they call it, is becoming a more and more popular treatment for concussions among athletes. I’m sure it would work with Morneau.
so you can run and tell that, run and tell that, run and tell that
homeboy, home, home, homeboy
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Aug 16, 2010 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions
On saturday there was briefly a lineup on the big scoreboard
listing Drew Butera at SS. Manny might be better.
Resign/Re-sign
Is there a term for words that are spelled the same but have totally opposite meanings? This pair throws me for a moment every time…
In addition...
- Ron Gardenhire will be replaced by Professor Dumbledore
- TC Bear will be armed with a crossbow and occasionally pick off opposing fielders from the top of the Minnie & Paul sign
- Third base will be manned by the fat kid from “Two and a Half Men”
- Opposing dugouts will be filled with asps
- Denard Span will be replaced by Pac-Man (he’s skilled at catching white dots!), although chemistry issues may arise with the addition of Blinky to the bullpen
- Justin Morneau’s concussion will prove career-ending, but his brain will be replaced by the thawed brain of Ted Williams, and the combination of Morneau’s strength and Williams’ skill will go on to hit .411 with 62 homers.
I would guess that all those things are equally as likely as Manny Ramirez playing shortstop for the Twins in 2011.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Aug 16, 2010 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
In 2011, you say?
I would guess that all those things are equally as likely as Manny Ramirez playing shortstop for the Twins in 2011.
So, you concede that it’s likely we sign Manny to play shortstop after the 2011 season! Aha!
so you can run and tell that, run and tell that, run and tell that
homeboy, home, home, homeboy
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Aug 16, 2010 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Manny at SS for the Twins
Rec’d for originality.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"I CAN SURE KILLEBREW, BUT I PREFER SODA POP" -WordUpThome
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Aug 16, 2010 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions
also rec'd
my favorite comment in a long time
so you can run and tell that, run and tell that, run and tell that
homeboy, home, home, homeboy
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Aug 16, 2010 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions
No way
Hardy is sure to be tendered. Plouffe is hitting .250 in AAA and is mediocre defensively at best… Casilla has only infrequently played well in his MLB career.
Can't nontender Hardy
Too many holes in the infield if we do. We don’t know if we can bring Hudson back or how much he would cost. Casilla is too inconsistent. Valencia won’t perform as well as he currently is – we still don’t know his “true” talent level. Plouffe hasn’t played to the level he’d need to stick around. And LNP is LNP.
At least if we offer Hardy arb, even if we overpay, we have someone at SS. Then we only have to worry about 2B (hopefully not 3B).
so you can run and tell that, run and tell that, run and tell that
homeboy, home, home, homeboy
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Aug 16, 2010 1:38 PM EDT reply actions
Kube's option
The Twins hold a $5.25M option for the Beard in 2011 – I’m certain they’ll exercise it.
Kubel's gets exercised
I hope Punto gets bought out. A 2 year $5M TOTAL extension I could deal with, though it wouldn’t be my first choice.
Hudson
As of today, O-Dog is a Type B guy, meaning the Twins could offer Hudson arbitration. Rauch and Thome are also interesting Type B free agents.
They cannot offer Hudson arbitration
His contract specifically stipulates that. ‘Twas a 1 year, 5 million dollar guaranteed contract and that’s it. He didn’t want to go through again what happened last year.
You're wrong
They cannot offer him arbitration if he qualifies as a Type A free agent. Since his counting stats are down this year due to injuries, he’s currently a Type B free agent according to the Elias rankings. If he stays that way, the Twins can offer him arb and get a 2nd rd sandwich pick if he went elsewhere.
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/minnesota-twins_17.html
by i miss herb on Aug 16, 2010 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions
There is no way that they non-tender Hardy
His defense alone, combined with his offensive power potential and actually very good overall hitting when healthy this year easily make him a top ten shortstop in the MLB.
We're not talking about Pat Mears
We’re talking about Greg Gagne. There’s just no way you nontender the best defender at such key position.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I don't think Joe would "pitch a fit" even if you pissed in his milk.
My life's goal: to force fischean itno using her moderator powers
by montanatwinsfan on Aug 16, 2010 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Joe: "Well, I probably deserved that for not repeating my MVP numbers this season"
so you can run and tell that, run and tell that, run and tell that
homeboy, home, home, homeboy
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Aug 16, 2010 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Next year Hudson is likely gone
I believe the Twins will offer Capps and Hardy arbitration as well as one of Rauch, Guerrier, and Crain. Probably Crain if he can keep this up the rest of the season.
As far as the MI is concerned I think Hardy will be starting at SS while some combination of Casilla, Plouffe, and Hughes will handle 2B. One will win the starting position the other two will be our utility guys. Punto should be gone.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
I'd rather re-sign Hudson
Find bullpen options from within and make Casilla the utility infielder.
Too many questions in the bullpen
Neshek, Nathan, Slama, Waldrop, Perkins are all pretty big question marks coming into next season. Burnett and Mijares have shown flashes of excellence but have had some pretty rough patches as well. I guess I’d be a bit scared taking our four best options this year in Guerrier, Rauch, Crain, and Capps off the team. Yes there’s a lot of potential in the guys I mentioned above but I still think we need to bring back Capps for sure and maybe one more of the other 3 guys. My vote is Crain not only because he’s doing the best right now but because he is the youngest and in my mind least likely to drop off. Guerrier and Rauch have been tops in the league in appearances the last few years I’m afraid there’s too many miles on those arms and if I had to bet on who will be best next year it would be Crain. Plus I believe Crain will be cheaper than those two based on his past seasons not being quite as good as Rauch and Crain.
I think Hudson would be nice but more of a luxury. We have a good lineup without him and I feel that the combination of Plouffe, Casilla, and Hughes could fill in. If not there ought to be a few decent trade options mid 2011.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Bring back Capps
He’s an internal option at this point
I would love it
If we got Hughes up here for a stretch again. I really liked him and I think he could do well for us.
Nontendering Condrey will be enough of a stretch for this front office.
Remember the Twins haven’t nontendered anyone since 2002. They’re not going to go nuts.
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