More Thoughts on Last Night’s Walk-Off Win
by Bobomojo on Aug 18, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
in Game Recaps
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PrintLast week, I wrote an article highlighting Jim Thome's remarkable season, going so far as to say he's "packing more power into each of his at bats than any Twins hitter since Harmon Killebrew."
Last night, I had the good fortune of celebrating my 30th birthday at Target Field with my wife and friends, watching one of the best Twins games of the season. Of course, the game was capped off by Jim Thome's two-run, game-winning home run, which put the Twins up by four games with just 43 games left in the season.
That was a hell of a birthday present, Jim. Thank you.
Adam already did a nice job of recapping the game, but I thought I would add a couple more observations:
Orlando Hudson's Home Run: John Danks had every reason to be angry after giving up a homerun to Orlando Hudson in the first. After retiring Denard Span to lead off the inning, Danks got ahead of Hudson 1-2. His next pitch was a 94 mph fastball that sure looked like it sneaked by Hudson for a strike just above the knees (see the green square in the lower left-hand corner).
The pitch was called a ball. The next pitch - an ill-advised change-up left up in the zone - was ripped out of the park. That one run sure made a difference later in the game.
Jason Kubel had an unlikely game: The slow, iron-gloved right fielder not only hit a two-run triple in the first, but also earned a "Web Gem" from ESPN for his diving catch in the third. Of course, Kubel's Web Gem was immediately followed by a nice grab by Delmon in left field. Why did this seem so unlikely? Look at the following graph, which shows the Twins defense as measured by Ultimate Zone Rating:
Corner outfield defense has been one of the Twins biggest weaknesses in 2010. So it makes sense that we'd see great back-to-back plays from Kubel and Young in one of the biggest games of the year...right?
Booing AJ Pierzynski still makes no sense: I get it: AJ is a jerk. Nobody likes him. But we traded him. Years ago. For Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan. Booing him makes no sense to me.
Crain's dominance continues: Rauch had a rough night. Capps had a rough night. Crain's amazing run continues. On May 18, Crain's ERA sat at 7.31. Since then, he's thrown 34.2 innings with a 0.77 ERA. Pop quiz: if you had a one-run lead to protect with the season on the line, which of those three would you like to have on the mound?
The Meaning of One Swing: What did Jim Thome's home run mean for our postseason chances? According to coolstandings.com, our chances of winning the division jumped from 81% to 86% with that one swing. At this point, if the Twins were to just go 22 and 21 the rest of the season, we'd finish 91-71. In order to match that record, the White Sox would have to win 60% of their remaining games. And, as we've seen, their schedule only gets tougher in September.
That was a great win and a great way to celebrate a birthday. We'll remember that one for a long time.
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That game was insane
I was glad to be at it. Easily the best game I’ve attented this year, though there wasn’t much competition. I’ve seen a lot of losses unfortunately.
When I saw Thome was going to be up in that inning, I immediately thought…here’s our revenge. I knew he was going to do it. I just felt it.
I still have a major headache from last night.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
I think every team's fans boo AJ.
Everybody hates him and I think he likes it. I don’t mind the guy. I loved him when he was a Twin. He does whatever it takes to win. I can’t fault the guy for that. I can’t fault people for booing him either.
I want to have Buddy Nix's baby.
Last night's doubles
Sort of lost in all the other excitement, but
1. Didn’t Valencia have two of the nicest-looking gappers you’ve seen in a while?
2. Kubel hit about a 415-foot double in the first. Is it possible to do that anywhere but in right center at Target field?
Kubel's double in the first
was a triple.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
Valencia deserved a couple of RBI for those doubles
Any other runner would have scored on the first one. The second one bounced six inches above the fence. If it stays in the park, Delmon scores.
Also lost in the homer melee:
- Kubel’s catch, which was easily the best defensive play of the season, imo
- DP with the bases loaded after the Sox tied it was also a key play. Good job by Perkins there.
- Ozzie’s inexplicable non-pinch hitting of Jones for Kotsay when Gardy brought in Perkins
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I thought the Kotsay at-bat against Perkins would be a bigger deal than it is.
Ozzie played some sort of hunch, I guess, and it didn’t work out. I expected Andruw Jones to pinch hit.
And I still think Jones looks like George Foreman now. I recommend Slim Fast.
"'Over'? Did you say 'over'? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell, no!"
by rubberbiscuit on Aug 18, 2010 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
The only reason Kubel's play was remarkable
was because he is so slow. For any compotent outfielder that would have been a routine play.
Whatever
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"I CAN SURE KILLEBREW, BUT I PREFER SODA POP" -WordUpThome
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Aug 18, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Its like if
Delmon gets a bad jump in the wrong direction but then corrects himself and makes a spectacular diving catch. Is that a great play even though a decent fielder could have made the catch standing up with two hands?
That balll was a rocket, five steps to his left and all he could do is turn, sprint and dive
People who make claims like that didn’t watch the play
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Aug 18, 2010 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It was a really impressive play
but Kubel made it look even more so with his statue-esque range
Fair enough
But I’m more inclined to say that on balls hit farther from him. It’s like the third baseman vs. the short stop. That play was a third-baseman play—three steps and a dive. If the ball was not hit as hard but was farther away from him, his lack of range really comes into play.
For example, that ball Ramirez hit last night that landed on the line should have been caught, and would have been caught by most other right fielders. But he had a long way to go for it and his lack of range prevented him fro getting it.
Maybe on the dive play, another guy might have gotten a quicker jump and not needed to dive. But range was not as much of an issue on that play. It was more of a reaction play.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I'm a big visual guy.
Shocker, I’m sure.
But yeah, I like the UZR chart. CF is higher than I thought it might be.
Has Repko had
enough playing time in CF to assist that UZR number, because I cannot believe all of that is Span.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
Span
Does Span get helped by the awful corner OF’s? I mean, that’s probably more balls that he gets to instead of letting them catch them, right?
Sure, but Span has had some really bad jumps this year
He’s certainly not up t the standards we’re used to around here, which are pretty high with Kirby and Hunter.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
He's not Gomez or Hunter or Kirby
4.2 is less than 1 standard deviation from average. Span is mediocre and that doesn’t take into account his below average arm. This is a bad defensive OF but it makes up for it on the offensive side.
There will be a transition as the younger guys come up (Hicks, Benson, Revere, Morales). They all have good defensive reputations.
Problem is, I don't think the OF offense makes up for it
Cuddyer doesn’t hit for average, doesn’t walk much, and has lost his power completely. Kubel is still competent, but should be a DH. Delmon has a good bat, but his complete lack of walks hurts him a lot. Span has been below-average with the bat this season. This is a horrible OF, offense+defense. No way around it.
Yeah, there's a way around "horrible"
They’ve got the 4th-best wOBA of AL outfields. Yeah, they give back with their D, but they grade out as pretty average overall. They’re about a 5 WAR outfield, which is about like what the Red Sox and White Sox have had. It’s not our strenght this year, but let’s not go nuts.
UZR has Delmon at -8, TZ has him as -19
UZR has Span at +2, TZ has him as -11
I was looking at BRef numbers, which is probably the problem. I trust UZR much more than TotalZone, so yeah, I agree, it’s not as bad as I thought
This is a joke, right?
Booing AJ Pierzynski still makes no sense
It has NOTHING to do with him being traded. It has everything to do with him trying to jam his cleats into Morneau’s foot twice! It has everything to do with him being a jerk mocking the “Smell ’em” slogan in 2006. It has everything to do with his dirty plays, like faking his way onto 1st base.
He gets booed everywhere he plays.
“Everywhere we go A.J. is booed,” said Ozzie Guillen. “We’d have to play on his mother’s patio to get people to cheer for him.”Besides, he kind of likes it.
“It was fun,” said Pierzynski, booed every time he comes to the plate in this ballpark since the 2005 AL championship series. “They always will. But it’s good, because that means they have good fans who remember and who care. It’s good for the game and it’s good that people remember things.”I will loudly boo him every time he comes up to bat at Target Field! Kudos to Delmon for trying to plow him over!
If this is a joke, I apologize for what I was thinking about you.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"I CAN SURE KILLEBREW, BUT I PREFER SODA POP" -WordUpThome
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Aug 18, 2010 10:17 AM EDT reply actions
Ha, stepped in a hornet's nest with that comment, huh
Honestly, I wasn’t joking about my AJ comment, but I do have to admit I did forget about the Morneau spiking incident.
Here’s my problem with booing AJ: we loved his attitude when he played for us, he was an awfully good player for us, his trade netted us two great players (and a couple pretty good years from Boof), and he didn’t whine his way out of town like Torii and others. AJ was a very valuable player for us just as we became relevant again in the early 2000s. I have a lot of good memories of him as a Twin, and have a tough time booing him because of his attitude now that he wears a different uniform.
But, like I said, I completely spaced on the spiking incident. Yeah, that’s a pretty bad omission on my part. You win Less Cowbell, you win.
I'd also add...
…that, if memory serves, the tradition of booing AJ dates back well before the spiking incident.
If you really want to hurt AJ's feelings..
Don’t say anything. If he hears crickets chirping he might get upset. He loves attention, doesn’t care if it is negative attention.
AJ
I’m ok with AJ.
He doesn’t try to injure people, he does the small cheap stuff that shouldn’t be anyone’s concern.
Faking gettinng hit by a pitch was smart. It’s no different than a player acting like a pitch was a ball and starting to run to first, or flopping in basketball or soccer.
We had no problem with him when he was a twin. I like watching him play.
p.s.
I hope they throw at Delmon.
They should throw at him, and he should let it hit him in the arm, and run to first. Then, if they throw at another player, or if the twins retaliate, there could potentially be a brawl, but most likely, we’ll just get an extra baserunner. Maybe last night’s game and a pitch high and tight will get Young out of his slump.
I wouldn’t mind a couple of their players getting suspended either.
Sox fan.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"I CAN SURE KILLEBREW, BUT I PREFER SODA POP" -WordUpThome
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Aug 18, 2010 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I think we should strike first
’Cause if we wait for them to hit one of our guys, we will be disarmed by an umpire warning. After last night, the umps will warn both benches at the first sign of trouble.
I say, throw at Quentin’s hip. He won’t move out of the way anyway. The umps will warn both benches. If Ozzie retaliates, he and his pitcher get thrown out.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I'd rather not give them something to rally behind.
Not that I want our guys to get hit either, but I don’t want to give them a single damn reason to hate us for other than our kicking their ass.
+1
I also don’t want to risk suspensions for our guys either. you never know exactly what the repercussions are going to be.
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by John Veldhuis on Aug 18, 2010 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
If we strike first, they can't suspend
I normally wouldn’t advocate this, but the umpires are so touchy that it becomes impossible to protect our best players from what their bullpen coach and lead broadcaster are calling for publicly. The only way to protect ourselves is to trigger the umpires’ warning system.
I don’t want to wait until they drill Mauer or Delmon in the head, an act for which we could not retaliate after the umpires warn us.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I'm with Jesse on this one
There are a number of potential negative repurcussions that could ensue if we strike first. The umps might be ultrasensitive right off the bat and not give Liriano the benefit of the doubt. Or, if they do, Frankie loses the ability to brush someone back later in the game, or might get tossed for an innocent mistake later, or may change his mentality and not pitch as aggressively and effectively as he otherwise would have. We might actually hurt someone, which escalates the animosity. And we lose the moral upper hand.
If anything happens, there’s a 95% chance it’s just Delmon taking a fastball in between the shoulder blades. A few seam marks for a day, a free base, the White Sox look petty, and we can think about extracting revenge at some point in Chicago in September.
and then
I suppose you want Delmon to blame Mijares for being thrown at and then for Delmon to throw his bat at the umpire. Delmon isn’t really in a slump anymore anyways, so a pitch high and tight may cause more damage than good.
You should never want one of our players to be thrown at…what if Mauer shoved AJ and then the Sox retaliated by hitting Mauer in the arm? Everybody on here would cry foul because Mauer is a franchise player.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
Personally, I don't think that either their bullpen coach's comments or Delmon's push of AJ last night
are worth much of a response. But we’ll see.
"'Over'? Did you say 'over'? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell, no!"
by rubberbiscuit on Aug 18, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Two things
1) Doesn’t TT have a rule banning soccer references? If not, it should.
2) Delmon is hitting .292 in his last six games. Including 3-5 last night with a HR. A Rawlings in his ear hole might not be necessary at this point.
by z-squad on Aug 18, 2010 2:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Caption fail on the picture.
“the Twins first walk-off victory at Target Field”
It was the fourth. But it WAS the first walk-off HIT.
You're right.
The first walk-off win was May 4th against the Tigers when JJ Hardy tripled and scored on a wild pitch.
Kubel had a walk-off sac fly against the Brewers May 22nd.
And then, of course, the infamous walk-off error a month against the White Sox.
The strike zone plot above is interesting,
but no umpire in the major leagues now has a zone that looks like that. Some of them don’t resemble any sort of geometric shape in the slightest.
Anyway, how is that plot made? Does someone using the center field angle on the broadcast plot that?
Just curious.
"'Over'? Did you say 'over'? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell, no!"
This Chicago Tribune article is terrible
Delmon Young, who riled the Sox by throwing a forearm near the head of catcher A.J. Pierzynski while running out of the baseline in the eighth, led off with a single.
A little bit of a misleading description. Next:
Young’s play at the plate raised the tension one pitch after reliever Sergio Santos nearly hit J.J. Hardy and caused Twins manager Ron Gardenhire to talk to home plate umpire Bill Hohn.
As for Young’s forearm shiver: “I was so hosed, I couldn’t slide,” Young said.
Guillen said he thought Young’s play was unnecessary, “but I like when baseball is aggressive. If anyone has a problem with that, there’s still a way they can resolve their problems. That’s not the manager’s job to get in the way.”
After limping to his locker, Pierzynski took a diplomatic approach.
“It was a play at the plate, things happen and you move on,” he said. “It was his only chance, and he did what he thought he needed to do.”
First of all, Gardenhire was checking to see if the ball hit him, not whining about the fact that it looked like it could have been intentional. And then they follow it up with Guillen talking about how the players have to handle it. The ChiTrib lines up the quote to make Gardy look stupid. Also, Pierzynski “limping” to his locker? Please.
Limping to his locker? Did he slip in the shower?
Brave warrior!
"'Over'? Did you say 'over'? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell, no!"
by rubberbiscuit on Aug 18, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
He was trying to knock the ball out
It’s a legal play.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Just the way that the Tribune
chooses to word things is incredibly frustrating.
Delmon oughta get plunked.
I don’t have any problem with what he did, mind, but if the series is going to be played that way, the fair and equitable response is a fastball to the ribs. (LEN3’s article on the tension in this series is good today; for all the whining Chicago’s doing about Quentin getting hit so many times last series, they seem to forget that Quentin is an expert at getting hit and never moves out of the way.)
What I find kind of perplexing is that the Sox boards are screaming for Mauer to be the one to take the shot. Just… ‘cause they want to hit him for being good, I guess. Not right. You don’t hit someone who didn’t have anything to do with anything (like the Hardy headshot that Delmon was retaliating for). Besides, if they deliberately plunk Baby Jesus, do they really think they’re going to get out of Minnesota alive?
http://www.realityfish.com
I don't think he was retaliating for anything really
He saw the throw coming in and decided to try to break up the play. In the half a second he had to realize that the ball was on the wrong side of the plate, he didn’t notice and didn’t change his mind.
And the reason they’d say “Go after Mauer” is because we went after their catcher so it’s all square in their minds. It’s ridiculous of course since Mauer does not equal AJ. I don’t think anyone on the Sox (maybe AJ cuz he’s a putz) would even consider going after Joe for retaliation of something Delmon did.
One of the coaches proposed going after Mauer before last night
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
That's actually assault
Premeditated intent to injure. Not sure why assault is legal in sports.
Mauer's not much better than Delmon.
For most of the season Delmon has been batting better and has more RBI’s. I think we could more easily replace Mauer than Delmon. (But then 21 has been my favorite twin since he got here so take that with a bag of salt.)
Post fail
That is wrong on so many levels I don’t have time to explain them all.
Explain a couple.
We have decent catchers that can fill in but our outfield is pretty thin. Just a couple weeks ago delmon was batting .330 and mauer only .295 with delmon having more dingers and RBI. The big knock against delmon in the argument is his poor defense compared to mauer. Also mauer is waaaaaaaaay more expensive. I’m not saying I’d like to lose either but Delmon has been to good to throw in the trash.
They've both been too good to replace.
Young is a competent hitter for a MLB left fielder.
Mauer is the best catcher in baseball.
Who could we more easily replace? Delmon Young. But really it’s a moot point and useless argument, because we don’t need to replace either.
I'm talking about:
Delmon oughta get plunked.
compared to:
“Besides, if they deliberately plunk Baby Jesus, do they really think they’re going to get out of Minnesota alive?”
I guess I value Delmon more than most people around here. (also still talking about the garza/bartlett for Delmon trade as the worst thing ever bothers me too. If he finds his power at the same age as most power hitters, he could be one of the best players in the league!)
Either way,clearly I am alone here so I’ll just forget about it.
Okay, bull.
No one’s been a bigger advocate for Delmon than me, from day one, through all of the suckitude of last season, through Garza and Bartlett becoming awesome. I love Delmon. But a) I’m not foolish enough to say that Delmon is the same caliber player as Joe Mauer, because that’s a seriously weird claim, and b) you can’t deny for a moment that Mauer is the most beloved sports player in the state. If Delmon got plunked, people would grumble; if Mauer got plunked, there would be a riot, and the Sox would have to flee Target Field with police protection.
Regardless, aside from some major crazies, I don’t think anyone’s talking about hitting the players so hard that they’re actually taken out of commission. We’re just talking a plunk.
http://www.realityfish.com
This is the whole problem.
A look at the numbers says that Delmon should be considered among the likes of Mauer and Morneau (Morneau’s career numbers, not this year’s). For some reason mauer has this Holy aura about him that causes people no one could ever be as good. Delmon is in the top ten in the AL for Avg, RBI, and SLG while having much less K’s than the people above him. He should be considered an elite level player.
Alright,
you’re right that Delmon’s having a great year. He’s loved and appreciated here. And you’re right that he’s hitting about as well as Mauer. A lot fewer walks, but more power. But even if you want to say they’re equals as hitters, their eliteness goes in completely opposite directions when you add that one is a below-average-fielding corner outfielder and the other is a good defensive catcher. Corner outfielders have to be good hitters because it’s a job almost anyone can do; catchers don’t have to be good hitters because it’s a job very few can do.
Hell, I hope Delmon continues to develop and passes Mauer as a hitter and as an overall player. That would be awesome. But we’re a long way from that.
Agreed.
I was just irritated that people think its ok to hit Delmon but Mauer (if it were a similar situation) is untouchable.
For the record
Repko is a much better option to replace Delmon than Butera is to replace Mauer. Repko is a decent hitter, but much less of a dropoff than Mauer to Butera. And Repko is a better fielder than Young in left field. Not to mention that Repko’s .517 slg line is pretty good considering he’s only hitting .267.
So while ideally, we don’t want to lose either on as they are both invaluable hitters for us, we are definitely better suited to losing Delmon due to the strength of his backups vs Mauers.
The walks hurt. They really do.
I hope I don’t have to tell you why RBI is a bad measure for evaluating the better hitter.
True
But Delmon’s BA with RISP is still pretty ridiculous. Don’t forget he was batting 8th for most of the season.
Mauer didn't throw a pretty eggregious elbow in last night's game
Who we’d tollerate being plunked has to do with whether they did anything to deserve it. Delmon did (at least arguably), Mauer didn’t. It has nothing to do with a fight about who’s a better player (although you don’t want to have that fight either).
I wouldn’t kill Delmon for what he did; it was his only shot at scoring. But it does make him a candidate for retaliation.
You're neglecting three critical things
1. Mauer has hit better than Delmon overall on the year (why exactly is it relevant that Delmon used to have a higher average?)
2. You haven’t accounted for defense
3. You’re not adjusting for position—in other words, it’s a lot harder to find a catcher who can hit like Joe Mauer than it is to find a left fielder who can hit like Delmon.
There are not many players period that can hit like Delmon.
This year you could argue that he has been as good or better at the plate as Mauer. (Mauer’s avg is higher but young has double the hr, and 22 more RBI. I dont have a stat to back it up but seems much better in the clutch as well.)
Our catching depth is still pretty good. Our out field is poor from starters to immediate depth and only promising at deeper levels. The adjustment for position for our team is different from other teams. I think we should be more protective of our delmon. The guy is 24 and batting .320 with 15 HR and 85 RBI with 43 or 44 games left. What will he be like when he turns 26 or 27 and finds his power?
Most other team’s fans would be estatic to have a guy like young. He could be the best player on many teams and here his is treated as just another guy.
RBIs are garbage. Totally dependent on players getting on base in front of the hitter outside of the hitter's control.
HRs are better but still don’t perfectly capture a player’s power. They ignore the fact that is 4th in the league with 38 doubles.
And you also ignore the fact that Delmon Young never takes a walk and Joe Mauer is exceptional at it. Despite the closeness in batting average, Mauer’s OBP is 50 points higher than Delmon’s. That is a big big difference.
Mauer is responsible for Delmon's RBI
Mauer gets on base, Delmon drives him in. Without Mauer there aren’t any RBIs for Delmon.
Hasn’t anyone introduced you to the triple slash yet? AVG/OBP/SLG. It’s been around for decades but for some reason stupid announcers don’t use it.
Delmon is responsible for his RBI's.
When Delmon comes up to bat w/RISP he gets hits and drives in runs. When Mauer comes up to bat w/RISP he takes a walk or GIDP. That difference in OBP mentioned by ckb is the direct reason for the increase in RBI. A walk w/RISP isn’t worth nearly as much as a hit.
People also complain that he doesnt take enough pitches. Why should he when the first one is his best chance to get a hit?
Delmon is completely responsible for 15 of his RBI
Those times he drove in himself. Don’t you think it might be easier to drive in a runner when Mauer hits 38 doubles just ahead of him in the lineup? That OBP helps Delmon drive in lots of runs also. If Mauer makes an out to end the inning, Delmon doesn’t get an RBI opportunity. A walk with RISP is worth a helluva lot more than an out.
Mauer has 63 RBI – he’s doing fine in that department. Of course he doesn’t hit behind a batter on base 40+% of the time like Delmon did hitting behind Mauer and Morneau most of the year.
Most of the year Delmons been batting 3+ spots back from mauer.
You are right, you need people to produce in front of you to make rbi’s. When they get the chance young is doing a better job of knocking them in. My point is that there is an inverse corrolation between rbi and obp for mauer and young. Mauer is getting higher obp at the cost of rbi and young is the opposite. Both are working out pretty well. I bet Mauer could be a little more free with the bat w/RISP and get more RBI if I wanted. With these two players RBI isn’t purely a matter of luck or help from other players.
Who cares about RBI?
Why the focus on RBI versus R?
Delmon 57 runs scored
Mauer 69 runs scored
Why is knocking in a run considered so much more valuable than scoring them? How is it a batter is responsible for knocking in a run but not getting on base to score them? Is it worth hitting more RBI if you’re giving up scoring runs? Mauer and Morneau are fantastic at avoiding outs which is the #1 thing that drives an offense. They’re better hitters than Delmon by any decent measure.
That’s enough on this one.
Runs would be a better measure than RBI
If we were talking about someone who stole bases. It is obvious why mauer has more runs than delmon. He has Morneau, cuddles, thome, and sometimes delmon to drive him in. Young doesnt have those batters skilled in hitting w/risp. He’s got butera, punto, or hardy usually to get him home.
Mauer has good players before and after him which should equate to more runs and RBI. Yound only has good players before him. He’s driving them in but there is no one to get him home.
We are arguing about who is more valuable, the type of guy that gets on base with the bases empty and two outs or the guy that then gets a hit to score him?
Joe Mauer with Men on Base
.348/.430/.540/.971
Delmon Young with Men on Base
.341/.365/.555/.920
Looks like they are pretty close to equivalent this year and if anything, Mauer is the better player to have up with guys on base in front of him.
I understand DY is your favorite player, but in terms of value to the team, the numbers are stacked pretty highly against you. Mauer has added just as much value at the plate this year as Delmon, not to mention years past where he has been a lot MORE valuable. Mauer plays defense at an above average rate, at the toughest position on the field. Young, meanwhile, is below average at one of the least valuable positions.
Corner outfielders with below average defense and a good bat are pretty easy to find in the major leagues.
Catchers who can play exceptional defense and still post the offensive numbers Mauer has are almost unheard of.
RISP
JM w/RISP
.346/.432/.505/.936
DY w/RISP
.379/.400/.548/.948
Delmon has slightly better numbers here, but with two outs the story changes by a huge margin.
JM w/RISP, 2 outs
.436/.532/.615/1.147
DY w/RISP, 2 outs
.328/.379/.508/.887
How about 2 outs total?
I’m through arguing but just curious about if a perception I have may be correct.
Wow
Do you realise that Delmon, probably our third best batter, would be the the best batter for the mariners, athletics, angels, indians, royals and possibly jays and rays.
We are so spoiled with good batters. Only Butera and Punto are worse than seattle’s second best batter (avg)(Mike Sweeney). Alexi Casilla could go there and be one of their best players. How do they have any fans?
I feel like this is worth revisiting
Twinkie Town posted this a couple weeks back. Delmon is indeed a very valuable run producer.
I still have to disagree on the basis that I’ll take Repko over Butera any day, but I agree that Young is vastly under appreciated on this team.
RBIs are your trump card?
Really? And having Butera/Morales somehow makes Mauer less important in your mind?
More comfortable than repko and jones and kubel
to play the corner of spots. Besides Butera plays a lot anyway.
Repko's a very good defender
He is +20 runs on Delmon in LF. That makes up a lot of ground at the plate.
At whose expense though?
Can you justify keeping Young and Kubel’s bats out of the lineup? If you have Kubel DH, what about Thome? And what about when Morneau gets back and we have Cuddyer to work into the outfield rotation again?
Repko is a solid player for us but not an every day starter.
Depends on the matchup
Good idea to have him out there for Baker and Slowey (flyball pitchers) when a LHP is on the mound for the opponent. Bad idea to have him play tonight (RH breaking ball pitcher, Liriano pitching for the Twins). Backups that complement your starters are a good thing.
Yes
For Baker, Slowey, and Blackbeard have him start over kubel w/ Thome DH and Kubes PH. When Morneau comes back (please come back!) repko can be a def sub and 4th outfielder.
Not Blackburn
If Blackburn is worth a darn he’s throwing grounders and it doesn’t matter who is in the OF.
Whoa, there
I think we could more easily replace Mauer than Delmon.
If Mauer gets hurt, he’s replaced with either Drew Butera, who can’t hit, or Jose Morales, who can’t field and hits with no power. If Delmon gets hurt, he’s replaced with Jason Repko, who’s an offensive downgrade but a tremendous defensive upgrade, or (when Morneau is healthy) Jason Kubel, who’s only marginally worse on offense and defense.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Replaced by Butera, who plays twice a week anyway.
Kubel is not only marginally worse on offense. Young to Kubes is from All-star caliber to below replacement level.
According to FanGraphs...
Kubel’s WAR is 0.9
Delmon’s WAR is 2.0
Butera’s WAR is 0.3
Mauer’s WAR is 4.1
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Wow.
That’s actually higher than I thought for Butera. Sorry if this is a derail, but do you know how exactly catcher’s defense is figured into WAR?
I derailed it pretty bad anyway. Maybe we should try to rerail.
I’m suprised Butera’s a positive though.
Looks like entirely CS rate
They have Butera at 3 runs above average and Mauer at -1, and that matches their “rSB” rate in the “fielding” section of their FanGraphs pages. I can’t figure out anything else that they’re using.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Can you imagine
How bad Drew Butera would be playing everyday? No rest to help with the nagging injuries at catcher. No platoon advantage to cover up his dreadful hitting.
While I dont really disagree,
He would have rest because there is still a pretty darn good morales that can fill butera’s current role.
I want to hate Thome.
But I can’t. ARGH. You sonsofbitches. Maybe someday we’ll actually make you pay for loading the bases. Maybe.
Time to call in the Q!avalry.
by ScottyPods Ver2.0 on Aug 18, 2010 3:05 PM EDT reply actions
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