Monday Breakfast & Baseball: No News is Good News?
by Jon Marthaler on Aug 2, 2010 7:00 AM EDT
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PrintNow that the trade deadline is past, it's a little less exciting in these news roundups. Here's what we've got for you today:
Twins Notes - TwinCities.com
Justin Morneau canceled his public BP session so that he could hit in private, and won't travel with the team. And there's news on Joe Mauer (could he DH?) and Orlando Hudson (could he travel?) as well.
Hey, Twins: Time to step up and play with the AL East | StarTribune.com
Jim Souhan, controversially, thinks the Twins should attempt to beat the Rays this week. We wait on pins and needles to see whether the Twins will adopt such a goofy, untested strategy.
Notes | twinsbaseball.com: News
It's your usual pile of notes from the Twins official site. Noteable for quotes from Gardy on both Morneau and Matt Tolbert, including one with which we can play Spot The Grammatical Error.
Guillen: Asian players treated much better than Latinos | HardballTalk
Ozzie Guillen... makes sense? What the heck is going on?
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Comments
From the Strib's comments section:
Hey Jim, it’s time to step up and write a good article for once.
I don't know
This idea about beating the Rays is crazy, but it’s so crazy, it just might work. Let’s do it!
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
Minnesota Twins 2010: GAME 163 OR BUST!!!
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Aug 2, 2010 10:28 AM EDT reply actions
It's a trap!
Stage a full retreat from Tampa!
We only get one shot at this, Bill!
We have no choice, Gardy! Our defense can’t repel firepower of that magnitude
Rick will have the pitchers ready. We just have to give him more time!
All groups – move in and engage the Rays at point-blank range!
Our hitters won’t last very long against those pitchers!
We’ll last a lot longer than we would against the Yankees!
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Aug 2, 2010 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 7 recs
It's fun to read if you're a Star Wars geek like me
because you can do the voices in your head…
The beard abides.
by Jason Kubel's Beard on Aug 2, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't know I was doing that until you pointed it out....
"I couldn't do that. Could you do that? Why can they do it? Who are those guys?"
Stay on target, stay on target
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Ah... It must be that .03 runs per game less....
“After a dreadful June where the pitchers combined for a 4.22 ERA — giving up a season-high 112 earned runs on 242 hits — they were able to bring their numbers down a touch in July. Over the past 31 days, the pitchers had an ERA of 4.19, giving up 107 earned runs off 249 hits. They also combined for 158 strikeouts.”
Free Agent Compensation
Updated reverse-engineered Elias rankings up at MLB trade rumors
Pavano – Type A
Guerrier – A
Rauch – B
Crain – B
Capps – B
Could Matt Capps turn into a Type A by 2011 and get the Twins some picks? That would make the trade more even. I think they need to offer arb to all of these guys. The odds they all accept is vanishingly small. The only downside of a player accepting is Crain.
There's also the downside of holding certain guys back.
If all four accept, we’re losing out on opportunities to groom one or two younger guys…like Slama or Waldrop. Nathan, Capps, Rauch, Guerrier, Crain, Mijares, Neshek, Burnett, Slama, Waldrop…and it’s not like the list stops there.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Twins stagger their arb offers as much as they can, to see if one accepts or declines early and making the org’s decision for them on one or two of the other guys.
Guerrier would have to accept, wouldn't he?
Guerrier’s making $3 million this year, so I assume he’d get $4-5M next year through arbitration, and I can’t imagine he’d get anything close to that on the open market with teams having to give up a draft pick for him and no closing experience – he’ll get Orlando Hudson’d out of the market.
Is Type A/B status dependent on just the last two years? If so, assuming 2009 Capps was an aberration, he’d be in very good shape for Type A status. Of course, he’ll also cost about $6 million next year in order to get to that point.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
What is the downside of offering arb?
That they accept and get paid about what they’re worth. That’s not a bad thing, except if you’re managing the payroll. The Twins can deal players who accept arbitration and none of those guys is untradeable on a 1 year deal. My guess is Crain and Guerrier wouldn’t accept arbitration. Guerrier has perhaps his only shot to land a multiple year deal and Crain has to be looking for a chance at closing he’ll never get in MN. Rauch will also probably look for a closer’s job elsewhere. Type B status won’t hurt Crain or Rauch in the marketplace so they are both likely to find better offers. Pavano will be one of the top 10 free agents pitchers available, he won’t accept arbitration again.
Likely case – they all decline, the Twins get 2 1sts, 4 sandwich picks
Rotation: Liriano, Baker, Slowey, Duensing, ??? – Blackburn, trade or FA
Bullpen: Nathan, Capps, Mijares, Guerrier or other veteran FA/trade, 3 spots filled internally (Burnett, Slama, Delaney, Waldrop, Fox, Perkins, Gutierrez, Neshek, Manship, etc)
"Except if you're managing the payroll"
That is exactly the problem. I don’t see any chance that Pavano accepts arbitration – he’ll get a $10-12 million multiyear deal somewhere, and good for him. If the other guys accept, though, you’re right that they’ll get paid what they’re worth (roughly), and the Twins will end up with a very good bullpen that costs a ridiculous amount of money:
Nathan: $11M
Guerrier: $5M
Capps: $6M
Rauch: $4M
Crain: $3M
Mijares and the righty du jour: $1M
That’s $30 million dollars… for a bullpen. Projections from the likes of Jesse and TwinsGeek have the Twins at around $90 million next year already, and that’s not including any of the arbitration guys (those projections were pre-Capps).
I agree that the Type B guys aren’t likely to accept, so their downside is more limited, but Capps and Guerrier have potential to be the most expensive pair of setup arms in the history of the league.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
So trade one
If Guerrier accepts and Nathan is healthy, trade off Capps.
Good point
He should be worth, say, a decent catching prospect in return.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
how about a decent RF
or do we have those in benson/revere/…
i suppose we might need 2B – who knows what happens with casilla or if we can get hudson again
by twinscrazy_german on Aug 2, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
The twins need to resign
O-dog, Crain, and Pavstache in my opinion and in that order reversed. Our rotation will be scary next year if we don’t resign pavano. And by scary I mean the bad way.
by Coolio12 on Aug 2, 2010 12:51 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
They won't re-sign Pavano
They can’t afford him.
I wouldn't assume that
It would take a lot of creativity to resign him, though, especially with Delmondo and Larry-ando having MVP/Cy Young years.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
It's the years, not the dollars
Pavano will want to maximize years on this contract. The Twins shouldn’t give him a 4 year deal for ages 35-38, someone else will do that.
You'r prolly right
I really can’t figure out how they would fit a contract like that into their budget. And I don’t think they should, either.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Gleeman's intro to that Souhan article:
One of my favorite writers once said: “Columnists who write open letters are hacks.” And then just now I saw this …
"All I want to do is beat the hair mannequin [Anthony LaPanta] this year"-Souhan
Target Field
is sold out every day—I thought that was how they were generating more money to pay for players. I thought the days of budget ball were over. Sign Pavano. We need him. I can’t believe someone would give him a four year deal at his age, but stranger things have happened.
Big raises due next year
I understand your point, but the Twins will pay like $70 million to Mauer, Moreneau, Cuddyer, Nathan and Capps next year. That leaves around $30 million for the rest of the team. Span is due a nice raise. Ditto Kubel, Baker and (ack) Blackburn. Delmono and Larry-ando will get huge raises in arbitration. Crain, Slowey and Hardy will also get hefty raises in arbitration. There just is not a lot leftover for Pavano next year, let alone giving him a long-term deal.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
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