A Case for an Ace OR Why Souhan makes me crazy

I've been away from a computer but I'm still seething about Souhan.  On the pre-pregame radio show before Friday's game on 1500, they were talking about the Twin's playoff chances and they got into the old three-man rotation discussion about how power pitching wins playoffs.  Fine, whatever, probably some legitimate truth to that argument.  Whoever Souhan was talking to asked him about the ace of the staff and Souhan said it should be Pavano but he hasn't looked good lately and he hasn't been missing as many bats as usual.  I'll agree he hasn't looked great his last couple of starts (15 hits!) but his K/9 has increased from June (3.83) to July (4.98) to August (6.04).  Then Souhan said: And Baker isn't ready for it either.  I don't know anyone who would argue that Baker is in line to be the ace of the staff.  Ever.

And excuse me, Mr. Souhan.  No mention of Liriano?

When he did mention Liriano later in the interview, it was only to say that he also hasn't looked good as of late and that he's not a big game pitcher, that he seems to always choke when going up against other aces.

(Side note: If being a big game pitcher makes you an ace, maybe our ace has been Blackburn)

I think Souhan's an idiot.  But he did get me interested.  Is Liriano not a big game pitcher?  

All these stats are coming from Fangraphs.  Fangraphs is great.  There should be a T-shirt in the Twinkie Town store about how great it is.  Twinkie Town [hearts] Fangraphs.  First a note on leverage situations, then on pitching against aces.

I'm not entirely sure how they figure out leverage situations, but I'm happy to blindly accept the math, because it means I don't have to do it myself.

Here are Liriano's advanced splits based on leverage:

Season	Split	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP	xFIP

2010	Low Leverage	10.18	2.71	3.75	0.14	.243	1.21	.345	- - -	2.07	2.84
2010	Medium Leverage	9.80	3.46	2.83	0.24	.253	1.34	.349	- - -	2.58	3.12
2010	High Leverage	7.45	0.93	8.00	0.00	.306	1.34	.384	- - -	2.06	3.05

SAMPLE SIZE WARNING! Innings/ERA per leverage situation: Low - 66.1/1.22; Medium - 75.1/4.54; High - 9.2/10.24

First of all: That DAMN BABIP!  And forty points higher in High Leverage situations.  Which reflects in the AVG column, which, I would imagine, reflects in the runs column.  Secondly: I assume that high leverage situations increase as the game goes on, which should correlate with things like Liriano's pitch count.  So maybe he's worn down by the time he gets into high leverage situations.  Thirdly, remember when he struck out all those guys with the bases loaded?  That was great.  

But fourthly, and most interesting to me, check out his walk rate.  I have to assume that some of his success in other situations, or his higher K/9 rate, for instance, comes from throwing pitches that might get called balls, getting hitters to chase.  So in high leverage situations is he just throwing the ball over the plate more?  Is that part of the problem?  If high leverage situations are mostly with the bases loaded, then it makes sense he'd be afraid to walk guys.  But is it better to walk a run in then give up a bases loaded hit?

I don't really know the answer to any of these questions, I just think it's interesting information.  His stats seemed to point to a good deal of bad luck in high leverage situations, along with a lower K/9 rate and based on the walk rate, possibly a higher percentage of pitches thrown over the plate.  I would conclude that based on the sample size and the balance of poor luck and pitcher controlled decisions, you could make the argument either way that Liriano is or isn't an big game, big situation pitcher.  And depending on how much weight you put on FIP and xFIP, it sure looks like he's the same pitcher in all situations.

Now let's look at Liriano by matchup.  Defining an ace obviously isn't an exact science, but I'm gonna pick it based on whether he's up against the number one or two guy in a rotation, since sometimes those slots are interchangeable (Liriano v. Pavano, anyone?).  But even then it's a tricky breakdown.  Early in the season he faced Verlander and J. Guthrie, both guys I would call "the aces of the staff", but clearly two different pitchers.  I mean, I would take Verlander every time over Guthrie.  But for the sake of the argument, they both count as ACE matchups, whereas Liriano's two starts against David Huff would not count.

Here's the list of Liriano's starts, team followed by matchup followed by W/L/ND followed by the all-knowing WPA.

@ChW - Danks: ND, -.159

BOS - Wakefield: W, .350

CLE - Huff: W, .368

@DET - Verlander: W, .554

@CLE - Huff: W, .113

BAL - Guthrie: L, -.221

@NYY - Pettitte: L -.029

@BOS - Lester: L, -.199

NYY - Pettitte: ND, .155

@SEA - Fister: W, .050

@OAK - Cahill: ND, .342

ATL - Hudson: W, .417

COL - Jiminez: L, -.030

@MIL - Parra: L, -.122

DET - Bonderman: L, -.284

TBR - Davis: ND, .273

@DET - Verlander: L, -.365

ChW - Floyd: W, .288

CLE - Westbrook: W, .310

@KC - Greinke: W, .101

SEA - French: W, .407

@CLE - Gomez: ND, -.225

@ChW - Floyd: W, .150

ChW - Floyd: ND, -.266

That's 24 starts at a 11-7 clip and a 5.5 WAR.  Breakdown the starts, I would say Verlander, Guthrie, Lester, Hudson, Jiminez, Westbrook, and Greinke are aces.  I also think you could put Danks in there, mostly because it's pretty tough to say who the Chicago ace is, as it's a pretty even keel and seems to change from week to week.  Floyd is pretty tough and Pettitte as well (or should I just say the Yankees?), but let's cut it off at Danks.  That's 9 starts out of 24 against top staff starters.  That's a bunch.  Liriano breaks down to to 4-4 with a WPA that works out to a POSITIVE .408.  Not too shabby.  Also interesting is that Liriano's best and worst starts of the season both came against Verlander.  He made Greinke look like a chump.  When he beat Hudson, Hudson pitched a complete game.  That game against Jiminez? Liriano's line: 7 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 6 Ks.  Jiminez's line: 8 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 Ks.  Pretty close right?  Only three times this season did he not make it out of the fifth: against Verlander (1.2), Lester (4.2), and some guy named Gomez (4.2).  

So what does it all mean!?! 

I think it means that everybody has off days and sometimes those days are against the best and sometimes they're against guys you've never heard off.  

But Souhan, if you're listening: I want Liriano pitching the first game of the ALDS.  I want him pitching against C.C. in Yankee Stadium.  I'd prefer him pitching at Target Field, but I wish the Twins could play all their games at home ...

One last thing.  If the playoffs started today Liriano's line against pitchers he could face in the post-season:

1-1, 4 G, 28 IP, 2.25 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 11.25 K/9, 0.96 BB/9

I'll take it.