Denard Span's Strikezone
by Brady Eyestone on Aug 24, 2010 5:35 PM EDT
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PrintIf you walk into Target Field, you know when Denard Span does something successfully. It doesn’t matter if he hits a lead-off triple or pulls off a Torii Hunteresque Spider-Man catch. You hear bellows of “Let’s get Denarded!” or “Super Span!”. It rivals a Joe Mauer single up the middle. There are just as many “2″ jerseys in the stands as there are “33″ or “7″. The Twins faithful love Denard Span. A lot of us like to think he is next in line of great Twins centerfielders. Kirby Puckett, Torii Hunter, Denard Span. But, there is something to be desired in his play this year.
Honestly, Span isn’t having a bad year. He’s posted a WAR of 2.2, he’s stolen 19 bases, with 19 doubles and 7 triples. He’s only hit 3 home runs, but, he is a leadoff man, and one of the most exciting lead off men to watch. Always a threat for a triple, and a stolen base. Last year he had a tremendous year with a .311/.392/.415 batting line with 10 triples, 8 home runs, and 23 stolen bases. That, along with just above leauge average defense in the outfield to the tune of a 5.2 UZR in his career. Coming into 2010, with Span poised to take over centerfield full time, since Carlos Gomez was turned into JJ Hardy, 2010 was supposed to be an All-Star season for Denard Span. But, now with his .267/.336/.352 line, and all of his counting stats, save for stolen bases down, this is easily one of the most dissappointing years for Span.
But why? Why are his numbers down so much from last year? His walks are close to what they were last year at this time, the problem sounds very simple. He’s not getting as many hits this year as he did last year. His BABIP is down a staggering 57 points! And why is that? He’s swinging to much. And he’s swinging at to many bad pitches. Apparently, he thinks he’s Vladimir Guerrero. As of August 24th, Denard Span’s O-Swing% (which tells you how many balls outside of the strike zone he is swinging at) is at 19.5, which is the highest of his short career. Which is all fine and dandy, but his O-Contact% currently stands at 80.8%. In other words, if you throw him ten pitches out of the strike zone, and he had to swing at all of them, he is going to make contact with 8 of them. When you look at last season, Span’s O-Contact% was 6.7 percentage points lower, and his O-Swing% was 1.4 percentage points lower. Now, what about inside the strikezone? His Z-Swing% and Z-Contact% are currently at 61.2 and 96, which is an uptick from last season, but not by much.
When this season started, I had Denard Span penciled in to make his first All-Star apperance, then somewhere along the lines, he decided to turn into something of a free swinger.
So, what’s wrong with Denard Span? He’s making contact on pitches outside of the strike zone. I don’t know if he’s trying to fight off pitches, or if he thinks he’s Nomar Garciparra. Either way, he’s not living up to his potential, and I wish he’d stop.
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Very good read and I think I'm in 100% agreement with you, Brady
One thing i wish for Span is an improvement in defense around the Walls and warning track…
IMO he’s one of the best out there ranging inward or to his left or right but going back back back he has troubles….
Around or up against that wall, i wonder if timing his jumps and really :stride….stride…stride….. little step, baby step, jump come into play at all with him.
?
but yeah good read
I called on the exact pitch - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 24, 2010 6:25 PM EDT reply actions
I agree with everything here regarding his play.
My only disagreement is hearing chants of “Let’s get Denarded” or other chants at TF. I guess I don’t see the Twins faithful as high on this guy as others do.
But yes, I appreciate this read and have also found him to be my most or second most frustrating Twin this year. (Close tie with Baker)
I always loved that one.
ummmm
I have to say, sir, my jersey is a #2 and I love to yell “Let’s Get Denarded” every chance I get.
Do you want to know the terrifying truth, or do you want to see me sock a few dingers?
by natetheskate on Aug 25, 2010 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Can you explain how his BABIP being down 57 points has anything to do with becoming a free swinger?
His strike zone has opened up a little, but Span’s biggest problem this year has really been speed and bad luck. It seems like he has lost a step this year. I don’t know if he has been dealing with some sort of nagging leg injury or what, but his bunt hit % is down from 37% to 22.2%. His infield hit % is down from 9% to 7.2%. Couple that with a slightly higher ground ball rate, and some bad luck in the form of BABIP (including a .212 BA on groundballs and a .165 BA on flies), and you have yourself a disappointing year.
You also have a dissapointing year if you swing at 20% of the pitches out of the strike zone and make contact with 80% of them. That’s 6 points higher than last season. You don’t think that those help lower his BABIP?
http://hrbieandkirby.blogspot.com/
by Brady Eyestone on Aug 24, 2010 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting...
Are you saying that he’d be better off if he actually swung and missed more at the out of zone pitches, because then he’d just add another strike to his count rather than making poor contact? Otherwise, I have a hard time seeing how a higher contact rate is a bad thing.
I am wondering how much the out-of-zone swing percentage is expected to be stable – we’re talking about a change from 18% to 19%, which seems like it could pretty easily just be a random fluctuation. I would note that during his rookie season, it was just 16%.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
That’s one argument, but not the one I was focusing on. I’m saying that making contact on so many pitches out of the strikezone has resulted in poorly hit balls, which has resulted in a drip in his BABIP.
http://hrbieandkirby.blogspot.com/
by Brady Eyestone on Aug 25, 2010 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
He seems to hit everything weakly
Last year, he was lashing liners around the ballpark. Now he has almost no power. That, combined with his lower walk rate and average, and he’s not a very good lead-off hitter. He is without question the biggest disappointment this year.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
its impossible to say
his line drive rate has dipped slightly this year, according to fangraphs. but if you look at jesse’s comment on bobomojo’s post, with these figures it can really depend on who you ask.
and you can put it on the boaaaaaard YES, HELL YES
FREE REPKO!
Span needs to take some time on the bench. He thinks that he has it made, and he does. The CF job, and the leadoff job are both his, without any meaningful threats. He is just too comfortable. His head isn’t in the game, as illustrated by his poor OBP, defense, and baserunning.
A week on the bench, setting Repko free, could put some spring in his step. And if it doesn’t, who cares? Repko will be out there, catching balls Span doesn’t. Might even give more offensive production!
I think Casilla would be a great choice to lead off.
spans year
I think there are a few things that are contributing to him having a down year. Mostly I think he is struggling with the way pitchers have adjusted to him. He has always had a good eye and gone up there with the leadoff mentality of take a bunch of pitches work the count however pitchers are now countering this by throwing him a lot more 1st and 2nd pitch strikes. Span is having to adjust to actually having to swing early in the count because many times he has found himself down 0-2 after looking at 2 good pitches because hes trying to work the count. Also I think his mental game is lapsing this shows most evidently in the numerous pick offs and base running he has made and his atrocious home/road splits, there was a lot made early in the year about his mentality of being the under dog he preformed best when he had pressure to earn his spot and prove his worth, now with center field completely handed to him he seems to be lacking that I need to prove myself fire. I like the idea of Repko getting some starts over him hes certainly a better defensive outfielder.
Correction
He has not always had a good eye at the plate. His first five professional seasons were marginal at best in the BB rate department. Then he got eye surgery and his BB rate went way up. This year it’s back around his career average. What happened? He stopped being patient. He is swinging at a lot of balls outside the zone. If he took more walks, his light hitting would not be as big of an issue. But he makes a lot of easy outs on balls well inside and low. That’s where the pitchers are going to throw him until he makes the adjustment and lays off those pitches.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
The baserunning errors are the most irritating
His OPS line actually overrates his offensive contribution because his baserunning has been terrible. I hope he hasn’t become complacent after winning the CF job outright. I agree that he needs to get his head in the game, that’s harder to do when you’re playing hurt or tired. Perhaps Denard just needs occasional rest to stay fresh.
I say play Repko at least once a week
That might help keep him fresh.
In addition to the baserunning gaffes, his defense has been average at best. I can’t remember a season with as many balls dropping between outfielders that could have/should have been caught.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
That probably has something to do with Kubel and Young being wretched defenders.
http://hrbieandkirby.blogspot.com/
by Brady Eyestone on Aug 25, 2010 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Denard never gets a chance to shade over
The Twins often had a really good LF (Gladden, Jones) with their good CF (Puckett, Hunter). Denard never gets a chance to cheat one way or another with Young and Kubel in the outfield.
Play Repko on the road
I have no idea why but Denard has still been Denard at home but he’s been awful on the road.
O-Swing%
This minimal uptick can logically be attributed to him getting behind in counts more often and having to protect the plate. The O-Contact% would certainly hurt his line, but again, it’s his lack of aggressiveness (early in the count) that has probably caused this, not the other way around.
The biggest difference I have noticed in his batting (this is where memory breaks down and stats can help) from 2009 is that he is not fouling as many pitches off. Those foul balls of the past are turning into weak grounders today. I have tried to find some numbers on foul ball percentages, but cannot come up with anything. That low/inside pitch cmath talks about above used to lead to an additional pitch, now it leads to an out.
by PinkiePinkerton on Aug 25, 2010 11:53 AM EDT reply actions
Better scouting
The league has probably adjusted to him, and now he made some adjustments.
He was extremely patient the last couple of years, focused on taking pitches, and keeping a very short swing so he could wait until the last second.
It is likely that the opposition is adjusting by throwing more early strikes, and has found the zones that he struggles with (low inside?)
Baseball-Reference has that
It’s on the “more stats” link from his batting stats.
It also matches with your suspicion. His overall strike percentage is the same as last year (62%), as is his looking strike percentage (35%). However, his swinging strike percentage and foul percentage are both down slightly (7% to 6% and 27% to 26%, respectively), while his in-play strike percentage is up (31% to 34%). I didn’t think that 3% change looked all that huge, but I did the math, and it’s an extra 40 balls put into play that were fouls or just swinging strikes last year.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Gold star to Pinkie and Snolls!
Span himself is on record about what happened this year, and you two got it right — see LaVelle’s column from Aug 21:
“Denard Span is seeing 3.82 pitches per plate appearance, which is third among regulars on the team. But after waling 17 times in April he’s walked just 20 times since then.
Span said pitches are getting ahead in the count against him more than ever. To combat that, he’s trying to be ready to hit the first pitch, and his walks have suffered because of it. Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said it’s one of those things a hitter goes through when pitches make adjustments against him."
http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/Twins_Insider.html
I’m pretty sure I saw a longer interview about this, I don’t remember where, in which Span said he used to always take the first pitch last year, so they’re grooving a fastball down the middle to get ahead, and then throwing nothing but junk.
And holymackeral too
just noticed you made this exact point above, too — well done!
Someone here was right in another thread
Swing out of your shoes at the first pitch, then settle down and be patient.
Its not that
span went down 0-1 in 49.6% of plate appearances so far in 2010. in 2009 that figure was 49.5%
went to 2 strike counts in 46.1% of pa’s in 2010, 44.4% 2009
batter was ahead in the count in 37.1% of pa’s 2010, 36.7% 2009. in those situations, span’s average is.239 and .292 last year.
i suspect span is not hitting the fastball as well as he used to, and sees more of them when the twins are losing, and thus sees more fastballs on the road.
and you can put it on the boaaaaaard YES, HELL YES
Interesting!
I believe he has walked just as much (hasn’t he?) which would mean pitchers might be throwing him fewer strikes.
PS-it’s TOO many NOT TO many (sorry that happens to be one of my pet peeves)
"I don't think it's nice, you laughin'. See, my mule don't like people laughing. He gets the crazy idea you're laughing at him. Now if you apologize, like I know you're going to, I might convince him that you really didn't mean it . . ."
by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on Aug 26, 2010 12:33 AM EDT reply actions
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