My Guess at 2011 Twins
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 29, 2010 1:24 AM EDT
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2011 Twins (I assume we keep our salary around $100-105M so i'm not being aggressive here)
Mark Ellis (signs 1 yr $3.3 M deal with option for 2012 running around 3.5M)
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Jim Thome (signs 1 yr. $2.75M deal)
Nick Punto (we buy him out for 500K than re-sign him to 1 yr. $4.15M deal) -lol
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Joshua Johnson 2 yr. (we trade Kevin Slowey, Angel Morales, Carlos Gutierrez and Glen Perkins to get him)
Franchesco Liriano 1 yr.
Scooter Baker 3 yr.
Kenneth Slowey 2 yr. Nick Blackburn 3 yr.
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Matt Guerrier (i think out of Fuentes, Crain, Matty G and Shank Rauch; Guerrier is the one that we re-sign or CRAIN)
Scott Downs (signs 1 yr $4.00M dollar deal with 3.67M dollar option for 2012)
Anthony Slama
AAA
Kyle Gibson, David Bromberg, Anthony Swarzak, Deolis Guerra, Ryan Mullins
Pat Neshek, Alex Burnett, Kyle Waldrop, Rob Delaney, Spencer Steedly, Cole DeVries, Tyler Robertson
Brian Dinkelman, Brandon Roberts, Ben Revere, Jamie D'Antona, Trevor Plouffe, Steven Singleton, Brock Peterson, Jose Morales -reserves- Luke Hughes, Danny Lehmann, Matt Tolbert, Toby Gardenhire, Dustin Martin
AA
Kane Holbrooks, Michael McCardell, Bruce Pugh, Robert Lanigan, Dan Osterbrock
Billy Bullock, Carlos Gutierrez, Tony Davis, Matt Williams, Steven Blevins, Jhon Garcia, Steven Hirshfeld +Santos Arias?
Rene Tosoni, Joe Benson, Evan Bigley, Nicholaus Romero, Estarlin de los Santos, Yangarvis Solarte, Chris Parmelee, Jair Fernandez -reserves- Juan Portes, Alexander Soto, Chris Cates, Marc Dolenc, Macri / Lis
A+
Alex Wimmers, Liam Hendriks, Bradley Tippett, Tom Stuiffbergen, Brad Stillings
Benjamin Tootle, Dakota Watts, Matthew Tone, Matt Hauser, Miguel Munoz, Elizcer Cardenas, Dave Deminsky / M. Schuld/ Clinton Dempster(1 spot)
Chris Herrmann, Aaron Hicks, Angel Morales, Anderson Hidalgo, Brian Dozier, James Beresford, Nathan Hanson, Allan de san Miguel, -reserves- Danny Rams, Toby Streich, Steven Liddle, Drew Thompson, Ramon Santana
A
Adrian Salcedo, Pat Dean, B.J. Hermsen, Logan Darnell, Martie Garcia
Michael Tonkin, Pedro Guerra, Justin Gallant, Nelvin Fuentes, Andrey Lobanov, Zach See, Ryan O'Rourke
Oswaldo Arcia, Reggie Williams, Nathan Roberts, Andy Leer, Daniel Santana, Derek McCallum, Michael Gonzalez, Kyle Knudsen -reserves- Wang-Wei Lin, Daniel Rohlfing, Buddy Monroe, Yorby Martinez, Lance Ray, Jamaal Hawkins
Elizabethon
Blayne Weller Danny Ortiz
Matthew Bashore JaDaimion Williams
Manuel Soliman Nick Lockwood
Justin Parker Miguel Sano (Not sure we'll be this agressive)
Jose Gonzalez (looks really good) Brian Burke (probably will be in Beloit but Gonzalez would have to be in Ft. Myers then) Eddie Rosario
Jean Mijares Rhory Rhodes
Derek Christiansen
Nathan Fawbush
GCL
Cesar Cuicina, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Kelly Cross, Josh Hendricks, Niko "cartier" Goodrum, Wander Guillen
****** I have Shooter Hunt and Paul Kelly retiring, Deibinson Romero, Yancarlos Ortiz, Chris Province, Michael Allen and *Santos Arias being released also Goncalves too, and a few low level guys signing on elsewhere or ending their profesional baseball careers,,, at least state-side
...BTW, I'm also hoping RHP Loek Van Mil is the PTBL in the deal for Brian Fuentes....
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Couple differences...
I think Thome is less likely than you are planning. He’s had a pretty good year and I think his price tag will be higher if he wants to play next year, and the twins might not be high on signing him. If Morneau wasn’t out right now we’d have a serious outfield/DH glut again, and I’m not sure Thome would want to be in the pinch hitter role if someone wants him as an everyday DH. Also, I think Blackburn will be back in the starting 5 next year. Maybe unfair to say that AFTER his great performance today, but I think he’s going to remain a solid #4/5 guy in the rotation. Gibson would only have a chance due to total ineffectiveness of someone or an injury. I also think keeping Hardy is unlikely. Probably less than 50/50 at this point.
Disagree totally on Hardy
I can see no reason for the Twins to non-tender Hardy. There is no worthy replacement in the system (Plouffe is under .250 at AAA) and his value in arb will be diminished due to his injuries this year.
While I’d love to see Pavano return, I doubt it. Blackburn will make the club in the spring and I think only one free agent reliever returns—my guess is Crain, who has earned a nice pay raise. I suppose Flores is a possibility for second LH reliever, but Mahay (at 40) is just as likely.
As for the rest of the infield, I think Hudson is gone and Punto will only be back if he signs at a much-reduced rate (someone will offer him more money I hope) leaving Tolbert as the utility guy and Casilla as the regular second baseman.
Remember Mauer’s raise takes effect this year and some guys are going to get raises because they’re arb eligible.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Aug 29, 2010 7:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Blackburn in AAA?
There is no way Blackburn begins the season in AAA with Gibson in the rotation. Not saying the season will end with Gibson in AAA but it sure won’t start with him in the majors.
Yeah, it makes too much sense to pencil Gibson in as the 6th starter
Who of course will almost surely get a chance in the rotation given injuries, someone else deciding to suck, etc. They’ll be paying Blackburn an MLB salary whether he’s in AAA or MLB, so you don’t expect him to miss the rotation unless he just really doesn’t have it.
I doubt Blackburn even CAN go to AAA
Is it really likely that he has an option left, after burning the one this year?
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
I dont understand it all so much...
But if Blackburn is sucking it bad bad enough that we would option him again… Wouldn’t we hope someone would eat his contract?
Yes, from my understanding.
If Blackburn is sucking it up enough to be sent down to AAA, then he’s likely sucking it up enough that no team would claim his 3 year deal off waivers.
Harris' contract will be a nice throw in
to a trade with an NL team featuring Nick Blackburn this offseason. If that were enough to garner a solid defensive 2nd baseman we could be free of those contracts along with Hudson’s and Punto’s all at once. Rosterbation can be fun.
My life's goal: to force fischean itno using her moderator powers or, at the very least, using her witch magic to impoove my spelling.
by montanatwinsfan on Aug 30, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
don't forget to throw in Tolbert, Perkins, and Butera
In return, we could probably get Chase Utley.
so you can run and tell that, run and tell that, run and tell that
homeboy, home, home, homeboy
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Aug 30, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
perfect.
My life's goal: to force fischean itno using her moderator powers or, at the very least, using her witch magic to impoove my spelling.
by montanatwinsfan on Aug 30, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I think they can come to an agreement with Thome
Thome knows he can’t play everyday anymore, even as a DH. He’s looking for a team that is a contender and wants to be a reserve. That fits really well with the Twins.
Hardy is much more likely to be a Twin next year than Nick Punto.
Yeah, as good as Thome's been for the Twins, the Twins have been good for Thome.
He gets the rest he needs and mostly plays with favorable pitching matchups. He likes being in the AL Central, gets to play in the fanciest new park in baseball, and gets to be on a contender. As awesome as his numbers are, you can’t underestimate how limited Thome is as a player at this point. He can’t even be an everyday DH at this point. I bet he’ll get a little more, but not a bunch more, and it will be with the Twins.
I also think Thome coming back is very realistic
I know he said somewhere at some point that he wants to finish his career in Minnesota. I think the ballpark has a lot to do with it too—Thome does an incredible amount of stretching and working to stay ready to play. He goes into the batting cage in between plate appearances to stay warm. The amenities at Target Field no doubt help him stay healthy and comfortable.
"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez
+25
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"Dude, grit+hustle > 'the dark side'." -LNP
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Aug 29, 2010 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions
The Competition
Let’s narrow this down. He is staying in the AL. He will only sign with a competitor with a shot at reasonable DH time. The Yankees and Red Sox are pretty much full at DH. Texas has Vlady domin back. That leaves the Twins, ChiSox, Rays and Angels. I strongly doubt that he ends up with the Sox due to the history there. The Rays don’t really buy players, they grow them. The Angels would certainly be in play as Matsui has been a huge disappointment and would split DH well with Napoli.
So, I think it’s pretty much the Angels or the Twins. I suspect we’ll have the inside track and hopefully he is wearing blue pinstripes once again in 2011.
by PinkiePinkerton on Aug 30, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
A few things
- Thome may come back to MN to pinch hit. Fastballs have been kicking his butt lately and he’s been mashing when well-matched-up
- Kyle Gibson won’t begin the year starting. Gotta build up that arm strength so he’s not just another Tommy John
- Punto for $5 million always surprises me. I’d like to see us decline the option then pick him up via free agency for about 3 MM
- . If we get rid of Kubel or Young (say it aint so!) then our OF/DH logjam will be relieved and who knows what we’d get in return?
- Clearing out this much salary (plus losing Hudson/Pavano/reliever salary) will likely give us some discretionary funds even after Mauer’s and others’ raises
- Are we going to have to discuss putting someone else at 1B for Morneau? That would change a lot of things…
I doubt we'll have any extra funds
I’ve got the payroll for the team above as 112M, give or take depending on arb awards. The 1.75M owed Harris and 3M owed Blackie is included in that figure because it’s on the books unless you trade them. I’d be suprised to see payroll go much higher so I don’t think they’ll have any extra room for a major free agent.
by Jon Kammerer on Aug 29, 2010 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I like how all your posts begin with 1.
Do you want to know the terrifying truth, or do you want to see me sock a few dingers?
by natetheskate on Aug 31, 2010 2:49 AM EDT up reply actions
We thought adding Hudson would be a huge upgrade this past offseason.
It has been. Big time. What’s changed that we wouldn’t want that upgrade again? Especially when the Punto option is going to cost us 5 million? This seems like a no-brainer to me unless Hudson’s salaray demand is going to be way more than that.
shouldn't be much more than 1y/5M for Hudson
He’s been a free agent the past 2 offseasons and that’s the best he could do. He’s been injured some this year and he’s not getting younger so I don’t see his value going up.
by Jon Kammerer on Aug 29, 2010 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Hmmm...5 million for Hudson or 5 million for Punto...
Jeez, I'm going to hurt my brain figuring that one out.
But if I was a team with a little money to spend looking for a 2nd base upgrade, I’d probably bid Hudson up to 2 years, 15 million or so if that’s what it took. Are there any other FA 2nd basemen hitting the market (beside Punto I guess)?
Not really
Mark Ellis, Cristian Guzman, Jerry Hairston, Juan Uribe.
yeah exactly
I called on the exact pitch - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 29, 2010 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd say we could get him back
If we buy out Punto and offer Hudson status quo salary, that would be Hudson’s best offer. He’s only getting older and more injury prone.
Hudson >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Punto
Yet they would cost the same if we picked up Punto’s option. You’re right, it’s a no-brainer to buy out the option. If Punto wants to come back as a utility player for less than $1 mil, fine. My guess is he’ll look for a better deal and still be unsigned in spring training.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Punto's defense
I don’t much care for Punto as much as the next guy, but his defensive value has him at a few million. That and while I find it pathetic every time he slides into first, Gardy uses it to show his other players that if they don’t bust their hump daily he’ll find someone who will to take their place.
Is Punto better than Vizquel?
Vizquel got $1.3 million this past offseason. His defense is better than Punto’s at every posision. And he’s a better hitter. Guys like Punto are a dime a dozen.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Fangraphs and baseball-ref
both disagree with this based on WAR. Punto has been worth about twice as many wins by both metrics.
I got my data from Fangraphs
Most years, Punto is about between 0 and 1 or 0 and -1. He’s had three really good years, two of which were at third, where you would expect a utility infielder to have a high UZR.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I suspect defense is going to go back to being undervalued.
After what happened to the Mariners this year.
No way C-Math
if Punto hit the open market
he’d be gobbled up be a defensive minded team within a week or two
at probably around $ 2-3.5M
I called on the exact pitch - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 29, 2010 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Can we get his bags packed now?
montanatwinsfan is my new role model
by carlpavanosmoustache on Aug 29, 2010 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions
with the money we save
we could get LNP some spiffy luggage, and a whole case of JUICE BOXES!!!
montanatwinsfan is my new role model
by carlpavanosmoustache on Aug 29, 2010 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions
You gotta be kidding me
He’s had two good years out of nine. This year he’s been hurt for almost half the season. He’s on the bad side of 30, which means more injuries and the inevitable decline. Good field, no-hit utility infielders are a dime a dozen.
BTW, his defense is overrated:
Average UZR (normalizing for chances per year):
2B: 2.5
3B: 10
SS: 0.5
With a career OPS+ of 76, he’s not worth much. You think he’s worth Juan Uribe money for a guy with significantly worse defensive and offensive metrics. The only place where Punto is better than Uribe is defensively at third base.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Plus, Uribe is available
Craig Counsell, Willie Bloomquist. I still think they should re-sign Hudson and leave Casilla as the utility infielder. Casilla has done very well as the UT guy.
Not getting this
You think he’s worth Juan Uribe money for a guy with significantly worse defensive and offensive metrics. The only place where Punto is better than Uribe is defensively at third base.
Punto’s career UZR/150 at shortstop is seven times as high as Uribe’s. Yeah, it was down a bit last year… and still almost twice as high as Uribe’s career rate (also almost three times his season rate, which appears to be in decline). What am I missing here? Normalizing for chances is irrelevant, if we’re comparing what you’d get out of a guy by signing him – you want to measure skill, not past contribution, and that requires a rate stat, not a counting stat, unless you think there’s some reason that his new team would give him the exact same number of chances at each position the Twins did.
I completely agree that Punto’s option should be bought out, but we don’t have to pretend he’s anything other than an excellent fielder in order to make that decision.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Comparison of UZR
UZR/150 is inherently flaky because of small samples. In Punto’s best years at SS UZR/150 wise, he had small samples. I prefer to go on straight UZR.
2003: -2.6
2004: 5.8
2005: 7.5
2006: 9.7
2007: 1.7
2008: 0.3
2009: -1.8
2010: -2.6
Punto at SS
2003: 0.7
2004: 1.3
2005: 2.5
2006: 4.6
2007: 4.9
2008: 8.1
2009: 1.9
2010: 5.2
Punto is the better defender, but not so much better that it negates his offensive deficiencies relative to Uribe.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
That's why I used career rate
I’ll agree that any flavor of UZR has problems in small samples, but using raw UZR when comparing players who had different amounts of playing time is not useful, either, because it’s a counting stat – it’s like comparing two batters by total hits and walks instead of OBP. We don’t care which one has saved more runs in aggregate – we care which one is likely to save more runs going forward given similar playing time*, and for that we should be using a rate stat, not a counting stat.
- I realize your likely objection here is “But Punto is always hurt!”, and while that’s true, I’d consider that independently of their relative fielding skill.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
How about this: When Punto is healthy, he plays well
It’s a lot easier to play like a screaming banshee when you get regular time off. It’s much harder to play well for 150 games a year.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Fair enough
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
leave my wife outta this.
My life's goal: to force fischean itno using her moderator powers or, at the very least, using her witch magic to impoove my spelling.
by montanatwinsfan on Aug 30, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
After winning the World Series in 2010
They might open with a roster of 120 mil!!
—
I think Blackburn will be on the MLB roster and GIbson at AAA.
On Paper that AAA rotation looks great. But the AAA offense looks dreadful. Sounds like the twins will sign several Minor League Free Agents to push some of those guys down. Probably an OF or two with minor league power
Also I don’ think Gardy would want to start the season with a rotation of:
Liriano, Slowey, Baker, Duensing and Blackburn.
Maybe they would trade one of those guys and keep Pavano?
Yeah, thee's no way Gibson starts in the majors
Maybe he gets called up at some point next year, but not before June.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
yeah I penciled Gibson in the 2011 opening day rotaitoin
with the mindset Blackburn doens’t have his sinker and is back to his 5.00 ERA+ and Gibson dominates in spring training, even then its probably likely he’ll be in AAA to start the year. but ya never know
WHAT REALLY intrigues me is that Ben Revere was able to get some more game/ AB’s in AA before this year is out after that frightening eye injury…….. i think he should begin next year in AAA if all goes well the remainder of this year,,,,,
I called on the exact pitch - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 29, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I can't see them being able to afford Pavano
He’ll get something like a 3 year, $30+ million deal someplace after the season. I could see offering arbitration in the knowledge that some team will want him for a long-term deal.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
part of why i'm in agreement with this
Is because off of Pavano, Fuentes, and Hudson we should get a sandwich draft pick
and possibly More for Pavano ….
however Crain I’m hopefull we re-sign although I voted Guerrier in the vote.
I called on the exact pitch - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 29, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Draft picks...
Hudson has a clause in his contract where we can’t offer him arbitration/get draft pick compensation. As for the others:
Pavano is Type A.
Guerrier is Type A.
Rauch is Type B.
Crain is Type B.
Fuentes is Type B.
We’ll get some good draft picks out of that group in the deepest draft in over a decade.
We can't offer all of them arbitration
But we should be able to offer some of them, secure in the knowledge that they’ll get better money and years on the free agent market than they can get in arbitration.
Of that group, Crain is the one I hope they retain. Also, I’m surprised Fuentes is only a type B considering that he led all of baseball in saves last year and he was an all star this year.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Aug 29, 2010 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
They can offer Hudson arbitration as long as he's not a type A
though I’m not sure where he’s at right now.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
+1
i think i’m in agreement with you about Hudson
although what would it cost in terms of year/money ?
I called on the exact pitch - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 30, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't give him a 2-year deal
I’d say he has one good year left in him, followed by a couple of injury-plagued years.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I was thinking a 100% certainty number
I’d say 1 year $5M has a better than 50% chance.
Well, if it takes two years, I'll take my sandwich pick
I like the Jimmy John’s Hunter’s Club with cucumbers, jalapeno slices, extra tomatoes and extra mayo.
I still don’t understand why it would take that, after two consecutive one-year deals for a middle infielder who’s on the wrong side of 30.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Fewer options on the market this year
2011 free agent market looks like last year but with DeRosa and Polanco off the market and Mark Ellis on the market. Felipe Lopez didn’t repeat his year. Hudson is the biggest name for anyone looking for a 2B.
I guess I could see the Mets signing him
All the other teams that could afford to pay him already have good options at second. It only takes one team.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Wow, the Mets owe Castillo another 6 million in 2011
That fanbase has hated Castillo from the moment he signed on, but they’re probably stuck with him for another year. They probably can’t get anyone to eat hardly any of that.
I hope we get the picks,
but it’s going to be tricky, especially with the type A guys. Don’t underestimate (1) how tightly teams will cling to those picks in a deep draft, (2) how much that will drive down the free-agent market for Guerrier and Pavano, and (3) how much that will increase Guerrier and Pavano’s likelihood of accepting arbitration, especially if they’d prefer to stay with the Twins anyway.
That makes offering arb to those two a $15 million or so risk (and maybe another 10-20 million for the other 3). With the type-A guys at least, hopefully it’s a risk the Twins will take, but it could blow the payroll planning pretty badly.
really the risk is only a couple million
Let’s say Pavano and Guerrier both accept. So we’ve got Pavano back at 1y/10M and Matty back at 1y/4M. If they don’t fit in the budget, you trade them for a AAAA player, a la Rafeal Soriano. If you can’t get anyone to take them off you hands, then you end up eating some cash. I’d bet there would be a market for Guerrier at 1y/2M or Pavano at 1y/8M.
The Type A picks are worth 5M, and if the risk is 2M, then the breakeven point is around a 66% chance they accept. Pavano should be looking for a multiyear deal, so he’s likely to decline and should be offered arb. Guerrier seems highly likely to accept so he might not be worth offering arb to.
by Jon Kammerer on Aug 30, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Good point.
Although assuming you’re using some historical average for the draft-pick value, it’s probably fair to jack it up a bit since this is being hyped as a very deep draft. But you’re right that, really, I bet teams would be willing to trade for a Pavano or Guerrier straight up or close to straight up for their arbitration salaries. It’s more complicated than just cutting them loose, but the end result would probably be about the same.
I disagree with Gibson
Even if he absolutely tears up ST, I don’t think we’ll see him until late June at the earliest
"Baseball is the only major sport that appears backward in a mirror" ~George Carlin
by thewild_viking_twins on Aug 29, 2010 6:25 PM EDT reply actions
I'd....
let Punto walk. He’s just not very good and we have literally 3-4 guys who can do what he does, if not better, for cheaper. (Casilla/Plouffe/Harris/Hughes/Tolbert in that order)
I’d make a strong effort to re-sign Pavano, Thome, and Crain.
Let Guerrier, Rauch, and Fuentes walk. I’d like Fuentes back but he’ll want more money and a chance to close and we’re already going to spend around $18M on Capps and Nathan alone next year.
I’d re-sign Hudson if the cost is 1 year/$5M again. Otherwise, I’d let him walk and either sign a guy like Ellis or let Casilla take over 2b.
And if Pavano is re-signed, I would attempt to trade one of Duensing/Blackburn, with Gibson waiting in the wings and Bromberg/Wimmers also not far away themselves.
My 2011 25 man roster
Baker 5 mill
Blackburn 3mill
Liriano 3.5 mill (arb)
Slowey 1.7 mill (arb)
Duensing .5 mill
Nathan 11.25 mill
Crain 3.9 mill (arb)
Capps 4 mill? is he under contract for next yr? if so what amount, Cots doesnt list him as under contract
mijares .5 mill
Flores .8 mill
Slama .4 mill
Manship .5 mill
Burnett .5 mill
Mauer 23 mill
Morneau 15 mill
Casilla 1.0 mill
Hardy 7 mill
Valencia .5 mill
Harris 1.7 mill
Butera .5 mill
Tolbert .6 mill
Kubel 5.3 mill
Cuddyer 10.5 mill
Young 4.5 mill
Thome 2.0 mill
Equal approx 107 million, now we will prolly bring in a veteran or 2 in the 2 to 3 mill range, so that could come up to the 110 to 113 mill range,a bout where the Twins should be next yr.
Repko
at prolly a 1 million if u go with only 12 pitchers , not sure who would be left off prolly tolbert or release Harris.
by Blairpaul715 on Aug 29, 2010 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I totally forgot about Brendon Harris
what a crappy contract we gave him there
I called on the exact pitch - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 29, 2010 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Liriano will make more than 3.5M in arb
It’s his second year, so he’s probably going to get 5-7M. Wandy Rodriguez for the Astros lost his arb case last year and got 5M but asked for 7M.
by Jon Kammerer on Aug 29, 2010 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions
After the adventures of the last two days
I doubt even more that the Twins will bring Hudson back. The I’m hurt/I’m not hurt tapdance is wearing on his manager. Hudson has been what the doctor ordered this year, but I don’t know if they want the guy long term.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Aug 29, 2010 11:50 PM EDT reply actions
Hahaha, was this intentional?
Hudson has been what the doctor ordered
You think because Hudson tweaked his ankle or something,
and missed half a game he’s a pariah? Meanwhile, Punto’s back on the DL after about 2 games back.
No, it is the drama
Will he be able to play? Will he not? He was healthy enough to play on Sunday, but asked out in the ninth inning. I’m not a Hudson hater, but I think his first line stats give the maximum view of his value. If Gardenhire and Smith think they can get as much from Casilla at 20% of the cost, I think they will give that a shot. BTW, I think they would be well-served to have a solid ML backup who can play 2B, SS, and 3B, because of Casilla’s history and the possibility that Valencia will regress.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Aug 30, 2010 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm with you
I don’t think he’s faking it. I just think his body is breaking down. When a guy tweaks his ankle taking a secondary lead, it shows his extreme fragility. If Casilla is ready next year, perhaps that 5 mil can be better spent elsewhere, like in retaining Jesse Crain.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Hudson, Casilla, Hughes, Punto
All players with injury histories. The thing the last three don’t have that Hudson does is about 150 points of OPS. That’s the difference between helping you win and just filling a roster spot with a warm body.
yeah but Hudson is scarily resembling Luis Castillo's last days in a twin uniform
as we speak…
Although in his first year with the Mets, Castillo was very good so maybe indicating O-Hud still has 2011 left in him to have a great year maybe 2012 too at most i would say…
I called on the exact pitch - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 30, 2010 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions
And every other 2B over the age of 32
Hudson typically plays 130 games in a season, this isn’t unusual. That’s why teams need utility infielders. Casilla will fill that role very well.
My guestimate
Rotation
Liriano
Baker
Slowey
Blackburn
Duensing
We’ll have Gibson and Bromberg waiting in Rochester as backup plans along with Manship as our long man in the bullpen.
Bullpen
Capps
Nathan
Crain
Neshek
Slama
Manship
Mijares
Am I missing someone there? Burnett and Waldrop would be the first guys to replace one of these guys if they go down or are ineffective.
C Mauer
1B Morneau
2B Casilla/Hughes/Plouffe
3B Valencia
SS Hardy
OF Cuddy
OF Span
OF Young
OF/DH Kubel
DH Thome
Utility Casilla/Hughes/Plouffe
5th outfielder Repko/Brandon Roberts
C Butera/Morales
Any of my slashes are it could be either guy. I think with the overall improved lineup the Twins may be willing to just replace Hudson from within. If he’ll sign another 5 million or less contract then maybe we’ll see him again next year. You could also add Dinkelman to the list of possible 2B next year. What I’d love to see is some sort of trade for a better defensive outfielder, maybe move Cuddy or Kubel possibly and give up a bit at the plate to improve defensively. I’m really not sure who that player would be but it would sure be nice to shift Span to a corner and get a defensive minded CF in the mix. That or just an upgrade defensively at one of the corner outfield spots would suffice.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
That's about right
We might bring in a veteran lefty for the bullpen. We might find an upgrade to Repko/Roberts on the market. But if 2011 started today, that’s how I would build the team.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Morales and Options
Is Morales running out of options? He had a cup of coffee in 2007 (before abruptly getting hurt if I recall)
I think he'll be out of options come spring
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
3 years right?
I think they have 3 option years right? So yah I think you’re right that could affect the decision, hopefully he can stay healthy and get behind the plate this off season maybe improve his defense enough to be baby Joe’s backup. It’d sure be nice to have a backup Catcher that can hit enough to DH Joe a bit more.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Cool.
But I’d like Pavano instead of Blackie.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"Dude, grit+hustle > 'the dark side'." -LNP
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Aug 30, 2010 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Hughes
You realize that Hughes played nine games (or something like that) after he was sent down this spring? Hughes had season-ending double surgery (sports hernia and groin?) and he is not a young prospect (26) who doesn’t really have a position and has suffered quite a variety of injuries. In his limited play he hit .257 with a .718 OPS. I won’t say he’ll never play another inning in the big leagues, but his chances aren’t much better than Matt Macri, another RH hitter who did well in his cup of coffee with the Twins.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Aug 30, 2010 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions
thus the slashes :)
Yah I know that same with Dinkelman or heck Casilla was nearly DFA’d at one point. I realize they’re not amazing options but with the other 8 spots in the lineup being as good as they are I think they can patchwork 2B with those names listed and hope one can come through and be close to league average.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
I find it interesting that there are three complete rosters in this thread
and none of them include a single external free agent. That doesn’t seem like an unreasonable position to take given the current makeup of the team, but it does strike me as historically unlikely. I checked back through 1987 and couldn’t find a year that had happened.
very good point
I chose not to include any because I just wanted to show more what we have and how the roster could be made up out of internal players. It’s the raises to our own guys this year that makes me doubtful of our ability to bring in free agents. Mauer, Liriano, Young, Span, Blackburn, Baker, Kubel, Slowey, are all getting raises this year to varying degrees and I just don’t know how we cover it all and bring in free agents.
I can see us getting another guy like Hudson that holds out and has to settle for a 1 year deal. I just don’t want to predict who that player is.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
+1 yeah
well mine
could have Mark Ellis over Punto, in fact I’m starting to dig that….
I called on the exact pitch - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 31, 2010 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions
That would be awesome
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I'd prefer Matt Fox over Ryan Mullins
but Mullins is a lefty, alive and breathing
I called on the exact pitch - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Sep 2, 2010 5:35 PM EDT reply actions
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