Delmon Young is Really Good at Driving in Runs
by Adam Peterson on Aug 3, 2010 8:32 AM EDT
in By the Numbers
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Last season, I wrote an article called "Runs Batted In: Opportunity vs Execution" that attempted to level the playing field when looking at a player's RBI totals by determining the number of RBI opportunities (which I call "Expected RBI" or "eRBI") that player has had throughout the season. This provides us a basis that can be used to determine how effective the player has been driving in runs by comparing to actual RBI totals. Last year when I wrote the article, Justin Morneau had the fourth most RBI in baseball, but he also had the 10th most RBI opportunities batting behind Denard Span and Joe Mauer (I'm going to pretend the Twins didn't even have a #2 batter last season).
This season, Delmon Young has been one of the Twins two most pleasant surprises (Francisco Liriano returning to form being the other). Through Sunday's games, Delmon was tied with Ryan Howard with 81 RBI, fifth most in baseball. But unlike Morneau last year, Young has not had nearly the number of RBI opportunities batting around sixth in the Twins order, his 50.28 eRBI is only 46th in Major League Baseball. In other words, so far in 2010, Delmon Young has driven in just over 30 more runs than would an average player given the same situations. Perhaps we can't say that this means 30 additional runs have been scored by the Twins offense than without Young, as the batters behind him could still drive in the runs. But considering that up until a couple weeks ago (when J.J. Hardy and Danny Valencia got hot) the bottom of the order was not hitting well. So it's probably not a stretch that Young's clutch hitting to date has produced at least 20 more runs than would have been scored with an average hitter in his place.
I'll provide more details, as well as a comparison to other Twins hitters and team totals after the jump.
RBI Leaders
As I noted, Delmon Young is tied for fifth in MLB with 81 RBI.
| Rank | Player | RBI |
| 1 | Miguel Cabrera | 93 |
| 2 | Vladimir Guerrero | 85 |
| 2 | Alex Rodriguez | 85 |
| 4 | Jose Bautista | 82 |
| 5 | Delmon Young | 81 |
| 5 | Ryan Howard | 81 |
And Delmon also leads all Twins hitters, with Jason Kubel (61), Justin Morneau (56), Joe Mauer (53) and Michael Cuddyer (48) rounding out the top five.
Expected RBI Leaders
When we look at the hitters with the most RBI opportunities, we see many of the usual suspects sitting in the heart of some stacked lineups.
| Rank | Player | eRBI |
| 1 | Ryan Howard | 61.94 |
| 2 | Michael Cuddyer | 61.34 |
| 3 | Evan Longoria | 60.64 |
| 4 | Albert Pujols | 60.28 |
| 5 | Mark Teixeira | 58.96 |
Interestingly, we see Michael Cuddyer with the second most RBI opportunities in all of baseball. More on his 48 RBI later...but behind Cuddyer, Kubel (53.74), Young (50.28), Mauer (48.24) and Morneau (44.06) round out the top five Twins.
RBI Plus-Minus
Here's where it gets more interesting. When we compare actual RBI to expected, we see who has really earned their salaries as run producers this season.
The top ten at driving in runs:
| Rank | Player | RBI | eRBI | +/- |
| 1 | Miguel Cabrera | 93 | 55.67 | 37.33 |
| 2 | Jose Bautista | 82 | 45.00 | 37.00 |
| 3 | Vladimir Guerrero | 85 | 53.63 | 31.37 |
| 4 | Delmon Young | 81 | 50.28 | 30.72 |
| 5 | Corey Hart | 72 | 41.79 | 30.21 |
| 6 | Alex Rodriguez | 85 | 58.44 | 26.56 |
| 7 | Carlos Gonzalez | 69 | 44.23 | 24.77 |
| 8 | Josh Hamilton | 75 | 50.49 | 24.51 |
| 9 | Carlos Quentin | 66 | 41.49 | 24.51 |
| 10 | Paul Konerko | 72 | 48.71 | 23.29 |
As you can see, when compared to number of opportunities, Delmon Young is fourth best in MLB with just over 30 "RBI added". Considering Delmon has a .433/.450/.625 line (which may not last the season) with RISP, this does not surprise me. And I would expect other elite sluggers to top the list, as we see above. Among the Twins, Morneau (+11.94), Kubel (+7.26), Mauer (+3.87) and Jim Thome (+3.87) round out the top five.
It's always fun to look at the bottom of the league at driving in runs. Across all of baseball, two hitters stand out in a sea of speedy leadoff hitters.
| Rank | Player | RBI | eRBI | +/- |
| 1 | Chone Figgins | 24 | 44.58 | -20.58 |
| 2 | Elvis Andrus | 27 | 46.36 | -19.36 |
| 3 | Juan Pierre | 24 | 43.20 | -19.20 |
| 4... | Ryan Theriot | 21 | 37.92 | -16.92 |
| 14... | Todd Helton | 16 | 30.22 | -14.22 |
| 17 | Michael Cuddyer | 48 | 61.34 | -13.34 |
If you're looking for an argument for Cuddyer to be batting lower in the order, this is it. Interestingly, Cuddyer has a decent (not great) .267/.362/.379 line with RISP, so I suspect it's Cuddyer's .167 AVG in 12 AB with the bases loaded (thus most RBI opportunities) that is the primary culprit. And among the rest of the Twins, Orlando Hudson (-9.31), Nick Punto (-7.82), Brendan Harris (-7.24) and J.J. Hardy (-6.61) round out the bottom five.
Team Totals
When we look at team totals, obviously the best offenses (Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Reds and Rangers) are going to top the RBI leader board. The Twins stand sixth in MLB with 492 RBI. In terms of opportunities, we see the Atlanta Braves at the top of the list with 499.24 eRBI, followed by the Rays, Yankees, Red Sox and Twins (489.39). With a total of +2.61 "RBI added", the Twins sit at 11th in MLB, 8th in the American League. Within the AL Central Division, the Chicago White Sox (+38.90) are #3 in MLB, with the Detroit Tigers (-32.28, #21), Kansas City Royals (-44.66, #23) and Cleveland Indians (-49.31, #26) all well below league average. Interestingly, the Twins last two opponents, Seattle (-103.09) and Baltimore (-78.68) have been the worst in baseball driving in runs.
Final Thoughts
In summary, Delmon Young has been really good at driving in runs this season. And hopefully he will be able to keep up his .345 batting average. But as we finish out the season, I have to suspect his batting average with RISP will regress toward his overall batting average and the RBIs will slow down a bit. Until that happens, it has been quite a ride!
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cuddyer needs to overhaul his swing
INSERT JOE VAVRA – cuddyer’s a classic case of the little guy trying to hit bigger than he is – the low hands are bad form, he’s slow to get on top of pitches. needs to widen his base and shorten his stride. oh, and where’s the intensity? has a puss on all the time these days.
i wonder
why havent the twins signed you as the hitting coach yet
by twinscrazy_german on Aug 3, 2010 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I think getting on top of pitches is his problem.
Thus all the weak grounders.
Different mechanics look for different players. From amazing players like Rod Carew to role players like Craig Counsell, you can’t just say “bad form” and make it applicable. Cuddyer has been a very productive hitter throughout his career. He’s having a bit of a down year, but he’s not that far off of his career norms. One hot week and he’ll be fine.
2010: 273/342/430
Career: 270/343/454
And intensity? Seriously? On a team that boasts two of the most low-key superstars in the game in Mauer and Morneau, you think intensity somehow equals desire?
you think the -13 eRBI and 17 GIDP's are a coincidence?
cuddyer keeps his hands low and loads up for an uppercut swing with a big hitch and stride. this is terrible form, any coach will tell you this. also, “getting on top” means getting mentally on top of the delivery. he just looks physically and mentally sluggish to me, and a shorter swing would make him sharper at the plate.
I never said anything about a coincidence.
Guys have slumps. They have down years. They happen.
Cuddyer does look sluggish, but he’s always looked sluggish. Even last year down the stretch, he looked tired. It’s been a personal joke of mine with my friends for the last eight years: “Oh, look, Cuddyer woke up from his nap just in time to take his at-bat.”
Maybe some mechanical adjustments would help. I’ll watch for the hitch, although I imagine this is something that would have been brought up a long time ago by coaches if not Cuddyer himself.
From June 30 to July 30 he hit .330/.400/.524. He’s heating up. He had 11 DP’s through May 19, and only five since. If there is a mechanical problem, it may have been a one-game thing you saw last night.
Cuddy is exactly what he's been his whole career
He’s had his ups and downs. But, when healthy, he’s a good #7 hitter. The problem is, prior to Delmon’s recent surge, the Twins used him as a #5 or #6 hitter. That only worked when he was hot, like last September.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Exactly.
He’s a very good supplemental bat, one of those guys you need to have on your team who can provide you decent numbers and an occasional threat after you get through the big boys in the middle.
if that is what he is...
and I agree with that. Then why is he being paid so much?
My life's goal: to force fischean itno using her moderator powers
by montanatwinsfan on Aug 3, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
He batted 5th last night because both Mauer and Morneau were out of the lineup
The new and improved lineup will look something like this
Span
Hudson
Mauer
Delmon
Morneau
Kubel
Cuddyer
Valencia
Hardy
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Looks good to me
I’ve actually kind of liked seeing Delmon in the #7 spot, he’s helped give us a bridge to the bottom of the order. But in the end, he’d have about 10 more RBI opps in Cuddyer’s spot, and at Delmon’s rate so far, that’s at least 10 more runs driven in…
by Adam Peterson on Aug 3, 2010 3:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Delmon 5th
Morneau is still a better hitter than Delmon with more power. If M&M walk it makes sense to follow with Delmon. Splitting Morneau and Kubel with a RHB is more important than splitting Mauer and Morneau. Otherwise that looks perfect.
Good point
With Mauer and Morneau both having such high OBP, you maximize RBI opps with Delmon right behind. And if you split up Morneau and Kubel, you make it a bit more difficult for the opposing manager to bring in a lefty to neutralize Kubel, you force him to waste a LOOGY on only one batter rather than two or three…
by Adam Peterson on Aug 4, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Versatility
He can play all the corner positions, some better than others. However, compare Cuddyer to Ty Wigginton – Wigginton gives you the same versatility with most of the bat. Troy Glaus and Vlad Guerrero set the market a lot lower for a RH bat this offseason.
I don't think Wiggington's offense
makes up for his god awful D at third. Cuddyer is bad at third, but I don’t know if he’s god awful like Wiggy is.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
He is probably paid OK this year. Next year, not so much.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
yeah, I guess that is what I really meant. OK, this year but a little cringeable for our club
pretty cringe-inducing next year.
My life's goal: to force fischean itno using her moderator powers
by montanatwinsfan on Aug 3, 2010 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
The TV guys talked about that earlier in the season, too.
But they were saying he changed his stance so his hands are lower because he always loads back before he swings, so the low hands forward are protecting him from taking enormous flailing Vlad-type swings in an effort to stay more consistent – if his hands are up and back, he’ll still load before going forward, then it’s just a huge swing, unpredictable depending on what pitch is thrown, and therefore much more inconsistent. Lower hands are now allowing him to continue to load back before going forward, but it keeps his swing shorter and just a little more controlled.
"...and we'll see ya tomorrow night!" - Jack Buck, Game 6, 1991 World Series
by WindyCityTwinsFan on Aug 3, 2010 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
cuddyer is hitting better lately
but still is good for a head wrenching off balance flail or two every game. i mean, he is the guy cant touch a low and away slider from a right hander, pitchers know this. watch him swing at one, he falls all over himself
So he's like 90% of hitters
Do you know how hard it is to hit a low and away slider from the same handed pitcher?
yes
its much less difficult when you have a short, balanced swing.
watch RHP pitch cuddy, he sees sliders early in counts and earlier in games. they see those low hands and know he wont hit it out of the infield if he hits it at all.
Actually
Cuddyer is more likely to chase high and inside. By out of zone chase %:
High: 57%
Up and in: 49%
Inside: 41%
Low: 36%
Down and in: 27%
Down and away: 24%
Up and away: 23%
Away: 20%
His BABIP on sliders vs RHP is .246, which is actually around average. But he struggles against the curve. Conversely, against LHP he smashed curves but really struggles against the slider, hitting just .135.
Just as important as results, though, are WHEN the pitches are thrown. I don’t have those results in front of me, and it could prove you 110% right. But the pattern that’s developing is this: low and away is a weakness for chasing pitches, but he’s a much easier target when you come up and in. Inside the strike zone, down and in and down and away are the two spots he struggles.
The bottom line: Cuddyer isn’t Joe Mauer. He’s going to have a weakness in his swing. Almost everyone does. And a lot of guys are going to look like fools when they hack at a slider, no matter where their hands are.
touche
i guess i imagined those numbers being worse than they were. cuddyer still strikes out a lot and looks worse than anyone doing it, you must admit. i wonder if he is both off-balance and slow to turn on inside/high fastballs because of a heavy bat? he seems like the type of hitter that would benefit from a more open stance in order to identify pitches earlier in the delivery. anyway, i do think cuddyer is a talented leader and when he gets hot the team always seems to go on a tear right along with him (see last april).
He does have an embarrassing strikeout a game
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
someone correct me if I'm wrong
but didn’t he make this change last year when he got hot? I remember noticing when he took Morneau’s place last year, that he was batting like this or at least differently than he had in previous years. I did notice at the beginning of the year that his stance looked similar as the end of the season, but more exaggerated.
It seems like it’s not working for him anymore.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
Also,
Move Span to the 9hole! 6 pick offs and whats his batting average on the road?
by The Fantasy Guru on Aug 3, 2010 9:33 AM EDT reply actions
.....
First off we just need to get healthy A.S.A.P and yes I would like to see a linup of…..
1.Orlando
2.Mauer
3.Delmon
4. Morneau
5.Cuddy
6.Kubel
7.Valencia
8.Hardy
9.Span
by The Fantasy Guru on Aug 3, 2010 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
It's a good lineup.
I don’t doubt that. Gardy just wouldn’t do it, and I wouldn’t either. Denard would have to do more than get picked off base to be dropped to 9th.
plus it doesnt make a difference except for the first inning
by twinscrazy_german on Aug 3, 2010 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
oh and i bet delmon will be slotted behind morneau
by twinscrazy_german on Aug 3, 2010 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
I think Gardy likes his M&Ms together.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
Minnesota Twins 2010: GAME 163 OR BUST!!!
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Aug 3, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I just want
Justin back!!! Any clue’s of when you think he will be back? I just hope we can have everyone back by early next week!
by The Fantasy Guru on Aug 3, 2010 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
All I heard is that he won't be back for the TB series.
If he’s back in time for the next homestand, that’d be great.
Yea either way
I just hope Gardy bats Delmon in the 5hole when we get are Justin and Orlando back
1.Span
2.Orlando
3.Mauer
4.Justin
5.Delmon
6.Cuddy or Kubel
7.Cuddy or Kubel
8. Valencia
9.Hardy
by The Fantasy Guru on Aug 3, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Span: .288 OBP on the road
That is ridiculously bad for a leadoff batter. Hudson : .317 OBP on the road. Not as bad… but come on, these are our leadoff guys?
Great writeup!
Once again a great job!
by twinscrazy_german on Aug 3, 2010 10:05 AM EDT reply actions
+1
Your analysis continues to blow my old mind. And you concise discussion is as usual, right on! Thanks Adam, we all are better informed having you with us.
by roger13 on Aug 3, 2010 10:56 AM EDT reply actions 4 recs
Thanks Roger!
With you around, I can focus on the Majors and many, many numbers. Since you’ve got the minors so well covered!
by Adam Peterson on Aug 3, 2010 3:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
BRETT FAVRE
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO PLEASE COME BACK
by The Fantasy Guru on Aug 3, 2010 11:01 AM EDT reply actions
Just saw this
So happy I have the Twins. They are a nice counterbalance to the insanity that is being a vikings fan. Yeesh.
He will return
As soon as he sees Tarvaris win the first game. he’ll be like, “That could be me! I want that glory!” Chili will always have him back.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
i'm not concerned yet
Are we seriously getting concerned about a Favre “retirement”? Like we didn’t know this was going to happen. Until I see Sage or Tarvaris behind center against New Orleans, I’m not concerned.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 3, 2010 3:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
This
And if he does actually hang ‘em up, I am still not completely counting out the Vikes, although from the few discussions I’ve had today, I’m apparently the only person I know who doesn’t think Tarvaris is a complete disaster.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
He's pretty good
In some respects, he’s better than Favre. But Favre is the best ever. So, in comparison…
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I thought that for a long time too
I don’t know how I feel now. I just know that they jerked him around and in and out of games for so long that TJ didn’t get much of a chance to learn and apply. The expectations have been high for the Vikes too.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
He hasn't told Chilly he's not coming back yet.
He’s not really retired until he is really retired.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
Minnesota Twins 2010: GAME 163 OR BUST!!!
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Aug 3, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Media circus
Conventional wisdom had him returning so someone had to plant the “retirement” bug to up the drama level.
Batting average
Part of this is Delmon likes to swing and not take a walk (like Vlad). You’re more likely to drive in a run with a hit than a walk. His runs scored are not going to be as high as someone with a better OBP. The game isn’t just RBI, someone has to get on base to be driven in.
And also
why I think Young is the perfect #3 hitter. He’s a born & bred RBI guy, and he’s the kind of hitter The Book would slot into the #3 spot as well.
i didnt follow the twins when he came up, so
where was mauer used when he just came up from the minors?
by twinscrazy_german on Aug 3, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
8th
He was only 21, so I think they wanted to keep the pressure off him so he batted mostly 7th and 8th. He moved up to 3rd briefly in July before he was shut down for the year with that meniscus issue.
His second season, they started him off batting 3rd and has been there ever since.
When Mauer has his power stroke on, he’s great in the #3 slot. When he’s all average and walks, I think #2 is a better fit.
Actually I always thought #5 is the best place for a guy like Delmon
I mean, if he’s hitting .340, he can bat anywhere. But with a lower batting average, he’s more of a #5 guy because of the lower walk rate.
Excellent Point
And obviously, one cannot look solely at RBI (added), slugging or OBP to determine overall value. Which is why I created “Total Run Accounting”.
But you’re right. Until Delmon starts taking more walks (which I don’t see, at least not a significant improvement) then he’s better off down in the lineup (I think #4 is ideal, between Mauer and Morneau) where we maximize the RBI opportunities.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 3, 2010 3:30 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Home Runs
How are home runs calculated into the expectedRBI data? I see that a lot of the names at the top of the RBI plus-minus chart also lead the league in homeruns… statistically significant because your batting yourself in along with any base-runners. Does the formula consider this factor or does it simply consider RBI opportunities as men on base? In which case anyone with a significant home run total is going to boost their expected rbi +/- by virtue of continually batting themselves in…
RBI Opps and Home Runs
Since RBI opps are league average, they include the overall chance that a hitter will end up with a HR in any given situation. Obviously, any hitter with a lot of HR will drive in more runs than “expected”. It’s where a guy like Delmon has a large number of “RBI added” without a ton of HOUR that you take notice.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 3, 2010 3:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Delmon has a new batting stance
Much less waving the bat, no more dipping the lead shoulder. Delmon Young has adopted a much better stance and a more disciplined approach at the plate this year. For that reason I expect his batting average to stay well over .300 this year, perhaps over .325.
Now if Kubel would get his weight squarely over his rear leg…
Batting title?
I am in favor of Delmon winning a batting title this year.
by AM. on Aug 4, 2010 8:56 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'd just like to point out:
“I’m going to pretend the Twins didn’t even have a #2 batter last season.”
That wasn’t pretend, that was reality! I can’t think of a good #2 since Castillo (though he was bouncing between #1 & #2).
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
Orlando Hudson
is a good #2 hitter, IMO.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 4, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't disagree, but he was talking about previous years and that's what I meant as well
the time in between Castillo and Hudson. Two and a half years without a #2 hitter. Though I’m not entirely sure about the 1/2 part. I can’t remember who took over for Castillo that season.
And I can’t remember before Castillo, but I’m guessing it wasn’t good then either.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
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