Twins Baserunning Revisited: Five Things You May Not Know
by Adam Peterson on Aug 31, 2010 3:00 AM EDT
in By the Numbers
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PrintOver the past few weeks, the Twins baserunning has gotten a lot of focus from reporters, bloggers and fans. From Denard Span's pickoffs to Scott Ullger's poor third base coaching decisions, it seems like everyone's said their piece. But has the baserunning really been that bad? Sure, we all remember the poor decisions and outs at home plate, but have the Twins made up for the outs with their aggressive approach on the base paths? Before last season, I wrote an article that took a "deeper look" at baserunning across the league, breaking down all aspects of baserunning, from stolen bases to outs on the base paths, into their impact on runs scored (or not scored). Because at the end of the day, runs is all the game comes down to.
With all the discussion lately about the Twins baserunning, I broke down the numbers for every Major League Baseball player to determine the total number of runs contributed on the base paths. After the jump, I'll show you five things you may not have known about the Twins runners.
- Orlando Hudson has been the best baserunner on the team.
- Denard Span hasn't been as bad as you think.
- Jason Kubel has been the worst baserunner in Major League Baseball.
- Losing the weight hasn't helped Delmon Young become a better baserunner.
- Jim Thome has even gotten in the act.
1. Orlando Hudson has been the best baserunner on the team
So far, on the 2010 season, Orlando Hudson has contributed a total of +5.1 runs on the base paths, best among all of the Twins. With 7 stolen bases in 10 attempts, Hudson actually nets a negative contribution, -0.6 runs through stolen base attempts. But he has been very good elsewhere on the base paths, taking a total of 57 extra bases (first to third on a single, scoring from first on a double). And he's been smart running the bases, making only 4 outs (outside of times caught stealing) on the season.
Joe Mauer (+3.9 runs) comes in second, and last year's best baserunner award went to Nick Punto (+5.2 runs), who vastly improved his running in 2009, making only a single out on the base paths. Of course, the ALDS playoffs aren't included in this total.
2. Denard Span hasn't been as bad as you think
Span's 18 stolen bases in 26 attempts looks good at first glance, but it comes out to a total of -1.6 runs contributed due to stolen base attempts. And Span has made 7 outs on the base paths, a number that includes pickoffs where he did not attempt to reach second. So between stolen bases and the outs, Span has cost the Twins a total of -6.1 runs, which is pretty bad. Why do I say he hasn't been as bad as you think? Because Denard has taken a team high 73 extra bases, good for 7th in the Majors (Elvis Andrus leads with 84) and contributing +5.9 runs once times "staying" on base (e.g., first to second on a single). Overall, Span rates slightly below average at -0.2 runs. Not good when you consider his speed, but better than you might think given all the outs. For comparison, Span was slightly above average in 2009, contributing +0.3 runs despite a combined 22 outs made running the bases.
3. Jason Kubel has been the worst baserunner in Major League Baseball
A lot of this may have to do with Scott Ullger's third base coaching, but Jason Kubel rates dead last in the Majors, costing the Twins a total of -7.6 runs on the base paths. Kubel isn't a base stealing threat, attempting (and failing) only one stolen base all year. But somehow he has managed to make 10 outs on the base paths, only Matt Holliday and Vladimir Guerrero have made more, with 11 apiece. And with only 28 extra bases on the season, staying the vast majority of the time (71 times) To compare, Mauer has taken the extra base 59 times and stayed 75 times, making only two outs.
4. Losing the weight hasn't helped Delmon Young become a better base runner
Last season, Delmon Young cost the Twins a total of -1.7 runs on the base paths. This season, Delmon rates at -2.1 runs. Not one who attempts to steal many bases, with a total of 15 attempts and only 6 successful steals, I'm glad he doesn't try very often. Young has been a bit more aggressive this year, with 38 extra bases compared to 37 all of last year, but he's been thrown out more often, 6 times in 2010 versus 4 times in 2009.
5. Jim Thome has even gotten in the act
No one expects much from Thome on the base paths. Heck, at times it appears he's lucky to make it from first to second on a gapper to right center. Last season in Chicago, Thome was one of the worst baserunners in the Majors, costing the White Sox a total of -7.8 runs. This year, he's been much better, costing the Twins only -2.0 runs. While this is partially explained by fewer plate appearances (277 this season versus 413 last year), he has also been twice as likely to go for the extra base (12-30 extra bases - stays this year versus 16-65 last year) and made fewer outs (2 vs 6).
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Kubel
I feel like Kubel has been involved in several of Ulger’s calls, so yeah, he could be getting hurt by the most directly coach affected play in the game.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
Ullger
I didn’t capture the number of outs by base, so I can’t say how much Kubel has been hurt by Ullger sending him. I agree, it does feel like he’s been involved in a few outs at home, and those are going to cost the most runs.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 31, 2010 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Testing third base coaches
Do you happen to have the numbers on which teams get thrown out at home the most often relative to their chances (basically, your runs metric, but only involving plays at the plate, ignoring bases loaded force plays)? It would be interesting to see those results, and see how they correlate year-to-year in order to test how much responsibility the base coach has.
Random guess (assuming that base coaches actually appear to make a difference): Bad teams will have “worse” third base coaches by that sort of measurement, because they’re more likely to be behind and thus more likely to take chances to score runs.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Wouldn't be too difficult to look just at outs at home
as well as extra bases that result in the runner scoring at home. I’ve got the raw data, just need extract just what’s needed to evaluate third base coaches…
by Adam Peterson on Aug 31, 2010 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
They should always hold Kubel up...
Ullgrrrr must think because he is pretty young still that Kubel can still run, but Kubel has reconstructed knees and should always get the hold sign. Ullgrrr has made a sitting duck out at home several times this season, and it’s a sad thing to witness. It’s certainly not due to lack of effort on Kubel’s part, he always looks like he’s running as hard as he can.
by Buddy Grant on Aug 31, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I think so
And those outs hurt. But they’re the only outs, and he’s actually taken the extra base more often this year.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 31, 2010 8:32 AM EDT up reply actions
How many times has Ullger got a guy thrown out at the plate?
It seems like a lot, mainly because the memory of those dozen times he has sent guys who get thrown out by 10 feet or more is vivid.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
This is what I want to know
I doubt there are numbers out there, but I’d love to see some analysis of third base coach decisionmaking. There are often times a guy gets thrown out at the plate where you immediately can excuse it based on situational circumstances, wanting to test a guy’s arm, not being able to rely on the next guy at bat, two outs and it was bang-bang at the plate, etc. I recall seeing one of those from Ullger this year, combined with about 8-10 “WTF IS HE THINKING!?!?!” occurrences where the only chance we score is if there’s a bobbled relay or a horrible throw. That’s a 1-in-20 proposition at this level. Ullger strikes me as a reliably gutsy third base coach, if he were coaching a Babe Ruth team. But he seems to be taking a lot of just ridiculous risks this season, and I wonder if there are numbers to back that up or it’s just confirmation bias and now that I’ve seen and focused on a couple bad decisions, that’s all I notice from him.
Ullger is typically overaggressive
But he also can get gun shy if he nearly gets an MVP killed. I’ve seen him hold guys with two outs and a better-than-even chance of scoring. Those are cases where I want the guy to be aggressive. But with one out or fewer, it makes more sense to me to err on the side of caution.
The other thing that bugs me is he frequently puts our best players into harms way with collisions. If the throw beats you by a mile, the only chance of scoring is to try to knock the ball out. Thing is, the catcher has armor on and the runner doesn’t. So the runner is the vulnerable one. I’ve seen him land Morneau on the DL while getting him thrown out by 10 feet with less than two outs. For that, he should have been fired, IMHO.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
An interesting Baseball Prospectus piece on third base coaching
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10073.
I think it’s subscription only but the take home point, at least on sac flies, is, " the ideal third-base coach is a sign on a stick featuring the words “If the gentleman currently holding the ball is an outfielder, please turn left and run an additional 90 feet.” It’s counter-intuitive, but the third-base coach doing the most for his team is not the one who has the highest safe-rate, but the one who has the highest go-now rate."
by Jon Kammerer on Aug 31, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Ullger will send a guy when the relay thrower has the ball
Those are the ones I have the biggest issue with. If it takes a good throw from the outfield, go ahead and send him. If the cut-off man has the ball, hold him. So I guess I don’t disagree with your point. Ullger is the only third base coach I’ve seen who sends guys based on the off chance that the cut-off man will make a bad throw.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I agree with you
From watching games it does seem like Ullger sends too many players with almost 0% chance of making it home safely. I just thought this was an interesting and well written piece and fit in well with the theme.
by Jon Kammerer on Aug 31, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Well it happened
Sent Kubel, out at home, Kubel hurt
Ullger should be fired
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Ullger should have been fired years ago.
When he was an embarrassment as a hitting coach. But then I am always far too willing to clean house with the Twins.
It was a dumb call for Ullgrrr alright,
but not the reason Kubel got hurt. He was hit in the hand by a pitch.
The out-at-home play was one of the sillier plays you will see, Kubel did not even bother trying to slide – he was out by maybe 30 feet (I could not see how far out because Kubel was off camera for awhile as the umpire and catcher waited for him to arrive). It’s the 1st time I have noticed TV camera’s focused on Ullgrrr in the dugout after the inning,
You're right
I wasn’t paying close enough attention
A few questions
I’ve done some of the back reading on this stuff and it’s very interesting, but I have to admit I am having a little trouble wrapping my brain around it. If you get a chance, a few questions:
1. What are your data inputs and where are you getting them? My understanding is you must have something that tells you where runners end up on each play (Gameday?). Do you also have information on the type of batted ball, e.g., liner to the right field corner instead of just “double.”
2. It looks like you give weight to the consequences of taking an extra base based on the number of outs. Is taking an extra base at 3rd versus taking an extra base at home treated the same?
3. Is this information fairly predictive? Have you studied it year-to-year?
4. Could you post links to your previous articles on this? I see a link to one of your articles, but it is just the 1st in a series and I didn’t see links to the others. …ok, now I found this article at BTB, which is helpful: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/1/28/738577/total-run-accounting-team
A few answers
1. I use MLB Gameday data, it’s the same data that drives the Gameday apps that you can use to “watch” live games for free. It includes each pitch, every play, where runners start and end up, batted ball data (type – line drive, ground ball, etc, location where the ball was fielded). Pretty much, everything you see in the app.
2. All of the analysis is based on expected runs given the situation (runners on which bases, how many outs), using the difference between the expected runs at the start of the play versus at the end of the play. And in order to more accurately assign runs to individuals, I break up each play into pieces that can be assigned solely to the hitter, base runner, etc.
3. This is still on my to do list, determine the extent that “little things”, including base running are predictive year to year. I strongly suspect much of base running is predictive, for example last year’s top base runner (by far) was Michael Bourn. And he’s on top again this year.
4. I’ll post links to the previous articles, at least what I can find. Looks like you found the first article on BtB, before I started posting here. Your easiest way to find my articles would be to follow the link for my username, select “Blog”, which will show you a list of all the articles. Go back to the beginning and ignore the game previews and recaps.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 31, 2010 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Ullger and Span
The combination of ill-advised third base coaching by Ullger and head-in-the-sand base running by Span has been the most frustrating part of the season so far. Span looks clueless at times. Can’t wait to get Justin back at first returning Cuddyer to right, then perhaps Gardy can play Repko more at center.
What would you do with the rest of your life if you knew that you could not fail?
No thanks
I don’t think Repko in center is much of an upgrade. Though I totally agree, can’t wait for Justin to come back. But I’m getting the feeling it may not be this year.
The most frustrating thing for me this year has been all the double plays.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 31, 2010 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
The 'Repko is better than Span' train left the station
… when Repko dropped to .230:-).
Span is having an off year, but he has been tremendous in the past, while Repko has not. I like Repko and don’t mind him subbing occasionally, but he is a 4th OF, nothing more. Just too bad we have 3 starting calibre DH’s, Delmon, Kubel,and Thome.
Great work as usual, Adam
I love this stuff.
Hasn’t Mauer been among the Twins’ leaders in this category several times? He’s basically Exhibit A for smart baserunning.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Mauer has been consistently above average running the bases
mostly by taking the extra base and not being thrown out very often. Yep, exhibit A for smart base running. Makes me wish I had the same data from Paul Molitor’s years, speaking of smart base running.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 31, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Gaetti is is another one I'd love to have data on
It might be that I was infatuated with his manhood, but it seemed he always took the extra base and he rarely got thrown out. It was especially impressive because he was not a fast runner and he hardly ever stole bases.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Delmon's weight
He did look trim and fit coming into the season, but I suspect he’s put most, if not all, of the weight back on. A monthly base running total or even UZR might be interesting for him.
Noticed the same thing a few weeks back
I suspect Skinny Delmon was a short lived phenomenon. Though they say the camera adds five pounds and what not…(trying to give him the benefit of the doubt…)
Great analysis
Nice article. Regarding Thome, I do think the Twins are using him better than the White Sox did last year. You mentioned he has had fewer plate appearances, but I would also add that he is often pinch run for in the leate innings of a close game.
I don’t have statistics to show the Twins are doing it more than Chicago did (if anyone wants to look this up, feel free), but I get the sense the Twins are protecting Thome’s health by pinch running as well as increasing the speed on the bases. The result being even less outs from Thome.
-Flip
Here's the one that ticked me off the most:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=10930189
Bases loaded, 2 outs, Valencia hits a single to center. Kubel tries to go from 1st to 3rd. Only one run scores.
Going through the highlights at MLB.com,
A few of the base running outs have been the runner trying to score from 3rd on an infield grounder.
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