Let's play: 5 surprises!
A post at MLBTR this morning inspired me to examine what has surprised me the most about the Twins this season, the things I wouldn't have predicted in the offseason.
1. Drew Butera being the backup C all year. In April, because of injury (Jose Morales) and needed seasoning (Wilson Ramos) and Bad Twins Management!1! (Red Dog!) , Butera "won" the backup catcher position (and by won I mean, "by default"). His previous 2 years in the minors were nothing to write home about (~.215/.288/..325). As a matter of fact, they were pretty bad, hitting wise. And so we expected Butters to maybe be one of the worst hitters in baseball in a presumed short time in the big leagues. He hasn't disappointed as his slash of .194/.226/.306 is bottom 10 in the AL.
But the Twins have this crazy idea that catchers should actually be able to catch. You know, play defense and call games and stuff. And by all indications, Butera seems to be excellent in that department. He's 3rd in the league in Caught Stealing % at 38.7 and he has become the bondservant to the Cy Pavstache. His exuberance and joy is a beautiful thing to behold. Surprised he's here, yeah. But, glad he's here too.
2. Carl Pavano. The Pavstache has been in the bigs since 1998. He had one great year in 2004 with the Marlins. Otherwise, he's had a fairly mediocre MLB career. I'd hope he'd have a solid year for us, but he's exceeded that expectation and he's been outstanding. He's 2nd in the AL in wins, 5th in WAR for pitchers, and is 3rd in innings pitched. His 2 month stretch where he went 10-1 with 4 CG's and 2 Shutouts led us to where we are now.
3. HR's at cavernous Target Field. I didn't see this coming. We play in the bloody Grand Canyon! Fair, unfair, good, bad...whatever. Surprising is all. Our new home is Petco North.
4. Bullpen additions. You realize we have 79 saves sitting out there in the bullpen? Yeah, I could see us adding a guy like Flores. But Capps and Fuentes? Didn't see that coming. We got 3 closers and 2 setup guys now. And really, we needed something more in other departments, like a starting pitcher or a position player to fit somewhere. But, we got bullpen and more bullpen At least we've turned games into 4 inning affairs. Get the starter through 4, then setup setup closer closer closer, Twins win.
5. Jesse Crain. Sometime in June, Jesse flipped a switch. He got off the roller coaster of potential and hopped on the teacup ride of awesomeness. He just started throwing breaking balls first, second and third, and relegated his 95mph fastball to an afterthought. He comes in, and I'm just surprised it's him doing this. Guerrier I could see doing this. Crain, yeah maybe for 10 days, but then he'd have the Crainwreck: 4 batters faced, 4 batters reached, 3 runs scored scoreline and we'd say 'Oh, Jesse' and wonder what might ever be if he figured things out. Well, he's figured things out, folks. Woot.
Honorable Mentions: Blackburn demoted, DannyV's year, Jim Thome's year.
Things that haven't surprised me: Twins in first, Span's blahhhh-iness, Delmon's impactfulness, Duensing's year, Rauch losing the closer job, Punto's injuries, Ullger's ineptedness.
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HRs at TF
everytime I see a HR die in the outfield, I want to punch the so called baseball experts in the national media who were predicting TF would be another HR friendly park…
Amazing, isn't it?
With all the technology and weather data available, the architects & engineers keep getting surprised by how the “neutral” ballpark they designed plays out in real life.
Who knew ahead of time that the Phillies & Yankees’ new homes would be HR friendly or that Target Field & PETCO would favor pitchers?
I can't say there's a lot of real shockers on how this season has shaped up, but I'd go
1. Overall pitching+defense. I didn’t think we’d be one of the top teams in the league in run prevention: 3rd in runs allowed per game, 4th in ERA, 1st in FIP, 1st in xFIP. I guess you might be able to chalk some of that up to Target Field, but still. We’re actually better at preventing runs than scoring them, which would have shocked me at the beginning of the year.
2. Francisco Liriano. I just didn’t think he’d ever be THIS good again.
Otherwise, I’m not sure anything knocks my socks off. There have been disappointments and pleasant surprises, but nothing else that would have really shocked me if you’d told me before the season.
Agree about pitching/defense
Whether it is Target Field or good decisions, the Twins are third best in runs allowed per inning pitched. Only Oakland and Tampa are better.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Aug 31, 2010 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Target Field
I’m not so sure the Twins Front Office didn’t sit around their mahogany table and kick around the idea of making it well nigh impossible to hit opposite field home runs at Target Field. It’s easier to afford pitching and defense then it is to pay for power hitters. My God, right center field at TF is 403 feet has a 20 foot scoreboard wall!
Mauer, Kubel and Morneau have lost more homers than anyone.
Than again, none of this explains why our outfield is constructed to carry bricks more than run down drives. Can’t wait for the Hicks, Revere, Morales era to begin.
Honorable mention surprise: Valencia, consistent both at the dish and in the field.
The White Sox playing 1927 Yankee style baseball for a month.
That suprised me for sure.
Biggest surpise though has to be Mauers lacklusater 1st half. I love the guy, and happily will take a .300 hitting catcher. But that DID suprise me.
I always loved that one.
Blah-iness
First off, great word. And great work. Second: you saw it coming with Span, too? I’m glad you said something. I thought he’d played over his head last year. Of course it’s easy to say that now.
And does offseason count? Because I never saw the Blackburn signing coming. Yikes.
Yes on Span
We discussed it here within a thread or two in the preseason. I was one of the few that wasn’t high on Span. I didn’t predict he wouldn’t be as good as 2009. It was more, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if has a mediocre season.
Chase Utley is a Nick Punto-type player, but with power--Bert Blyleven
ok, good post, but you still deserve this for the last comment (at least)

My life's goal: to force fischean itno using her moderator powers or, at the very least, using her witch magic to impoove my spelling.
by montanatwinsfan on Aug 31, 2010 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions
You predicted he would go .230/.280/.320
Don’t make me go to the archives.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
go for it, i doubt i said that
Chase Utley is a Nick Punto-type player, but with power--Bert Blyleven
OK, this could take a couple of days
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
cmath, meh, no one cares what was said 6 months ago
don’t waste your time…..seriously
Chase Utley is a Nick Punto-type player, but with power--Bert Blyleven
Re: Span, 'playing over his head, and regression'
from 2006 – 2009 seasons:
he had a BABIP of .330, .332, .383, .353. This year his BABIP is .299
he had an AVG of .285, .267, .317, .311. This year his AVG is .270
he had an OBP of .340, .323, .410, .392. This year his OBP is .336
he had a SLG of .349, .355, .456, .415. This year his SLG is .352
His numbers from 2006 through 2009 showed improvement. His first two years in the big leagues are pretty consistent. This year we are seeing numbers that are career worsts, including his minor league career. If anything we are seeing some kind of outlier this season, not last. So, I think lazers is patently incorrect to suggest that last year’s numbers were ‘over his head’.
On the other hand, it wouldn’t have been too brazen to have prdicted ‘he wuldn’t be as good as 2009.’ Big deal, his 2009 numbers were damn good, a mild drop would from those numbers is easily within a predictive range and would still be indicative of a good leadoff hitter.
Neither Nostradamus, nor Beavis and Butthead, would have ‘predicted’ that he would have career lows.
My life's goal: to force fischean itno using her moderator powers or, at the very least, using her witch magic to impoove my spelling.
by montanatwinsfan on Sep 1, 2010 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
goodness gracious has he really been in the bigs for five years now?
I feel like it was only yesterday when I was watching gameday and I was thinking to myself “who the hell is this span guy?”
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no, sorry I wasn't as clear as I should have been.
2006 and 2007 were in the minors.
My life's goal: to force fischean itno using her moderator powers or, at the very least, using her witch magic to impoove my spelling.
by montanatwinsfan on Sep 1, 2010 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I called Danny Valencia
raking this year, although there’s nothing here to back that up and for all y’all know i could be talking out of my ass but when I heard we had a decent 3rd base prospect whose name was Danny Valencia, I wanted him up immediately if not sooner. I don’t really know why, I just kind of felt like he’d be great just based on his name or something.
Incidentally, he’s also the only major leaguer ever to spend time at my university.
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