Quick Takes on Fuentes, Kubel
First off, despite the fact Fuentes and Kubel are the subjects, this post has nothing to do with the growing list of injured players on the squad. If you're interested in the infirmary report, check out Jon Marthaler's post below.
Second off, kudos to Adam Peterson for posting an article on baserunning that perfectly previewed the terrible judgment Ullger showed last night (yet again). And, yes, it's been confirmed that Ullger sent Kubel
Now, onto my post...
This is my first post since the Twins acquired Brian Fuentes, so I thought I'd throw in my two cents: great move, obviously, and one that has the potential to pay huge dividends in the postseason (If, in fact, the Twins make the postseason. No one here is counting their chickens before they hatch).
As many have noted, Fuentes has been murder on lefties this season, and throughout his career. That talent is extremely important in high-leverage, late-inning situations, especially in the postseason when you're routinely facing some of the best left-handed hitters in baseball.
While I'm typically not one to pay much attention to past batter vs. pitcher match-ups, I couldn't resist compiling a list of left-handed hitters the Twins could possibly see in the postseason (IF we make it to October). See the chart after the jump.
|
Player |
AB |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
K |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
|
Robinson Canó |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.250 |
0.250 |
0.250 |
0.500 |
|
Curtis Granderson |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Carl Crawford |
5 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0.200 |
0.200 |
0.400 |
0.600 |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
|
Matt Joyce |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
--- |
0.000 |
--- |
--- |
|
Carlos Peña |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
--- |
1.000 |
--- |
--- |
|
Julio Borbón |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Josh Hamilton |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
David Murphy |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
TOTAL |
19 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
0.105 |
0.150 |
0.158 |
0.308 |
That list contains some pretty darn good left-handed hitters, including the two leading AL MVP candidates. As a group, they've hit a combined .105 off of Fuentes.
Now let's just hope his back lets him pitch.
Jason Kubel has had a terribly disappointing season thus far in 2010, with his OPS dipping more than 120 points from last year. It's worth noting, however, that in a lot of ways, Kubel's 2010 looks like a return to form rather than a major step backwards. Here's what I mean:
|
Season |
BB% |
ISO |
BABIP |
wOBA |
|
2007 |
8.80% |
0.177 |
0.305 |
0.342 |
|
2008 |
9.10% |
0.199 |
0.295 |
0.345 |
|
2009 |
9.70% |
0.239 |
0.327 |
0.383 |
|
2010 |
10.60% |
0.185 |
0.292 |
0.338 |
Here are those last three columns in graph form:
See what I mean? Last year, Kubel took a major leap forward offensively, with a huge spike in both his batting average and power numbers. Considering his age (27 last season) and pre-catastrophic knee injury pedigree, his numbers had many Twins fans thinking we were seeing the young slugger finally hit his stride in the majors. Now, however, with just a month left to play in the season, Kubel's 2010 totals have regressed to essentially the same level they were in 2007 and 2008.
Now take a look at his lefty/righty splits for the past four seasons:
|
Season |
OPS vs. LHP |
OPS vs. RHP |
|
2007 |
0.667 |
0.810 |
|
2008 |
0.704 |
0.833 |
|
2009 |
0.643 |
1.014 |
|
2010 |
0.647 |
0.849 |
We now see where the spike in Kubel's 2009 numbers came from: a huge upswing in production against right-handed pitching, which has seemed to evaporate in 2010.
What do we make of this? Well, I don't think we have nearly enough information to say 2009 was a fluke, given that Kubel is still in his prime and we don't yet have enough data to accurately judge how Target Field is impacting hitters. But, at this point, it does appear to be something of an outlier, fueled by both a big spike in power and a 30 point BABIP jump. The big question is: has this just been a down year for Kubel, or have we seen him return to his baseline level of production?
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Comments
On Kubel,
I think between the fact that his BABIP was a bit high last year and the fact that league-wide offense is down about 25 points of OPS this year, you pretty much have your explanation for the downturn. Smear the numbers of the last two years’ or so and you pretty know exactly who Kubel is: A guy who hits RHP really nicely, probably to the tune of a 850-900 OPS, and hits LHP like a backup catcher. He’s about as one-dimensional as it gets, but it’s a nice dimension.
You could throw a little Target Field into the explanation too if you want.
Point is, I don’t think Kubel’s really changed that much from last year.
Extremely nitpicky statistical correction
The combined OBP against Fuentes should actually be .143, not .150 – Matt Joyce’s plate appearance resulted in a sacrifice fly (I suspected it from the RBI without an AB and confirmed it on BB-Ref), and while those don’t count against your batting average, they do count against on-base percentage (which is why his OBP is 0, rather than undefined like BA and SLG).
I’ll go back to my pocket protectors now.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
I know something you do not know
They… are not left handed.
(they’re switch-hitters)
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

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