FanPost

A Four Factors look at Delmon Young


At fangraphs, Jack Moore has done a series looking at projecting a players wOBA based on his BB%, K%, BABIP, and XB/H.  It relies on the fact that K% stabilizes after 150 PA,  BB% stabilizes after 200 PA, and ISO after 550.  I've decided to run the numbers twice using both Young's career BABIP and a marcel of his last 4 years BABIP.   The final assumption is a league average distribution of 2B/3B/HR per extrabase hit.   

Using his current BB%+HBP% of 5.6%, K% rate of 13.8%, XB% of 38% and career BABIP yields an expected wOBA of .364 compared to his current wOBA of .344.  The difference comes from his lower than career average BABIP and higher than average number of 2B compared to HR.  Substituting the marcel BABIP, gives a projected wOBA of .359. 

I've included some of the background material below the jump.  Interestingly, wOBA was least sensitive to changing walk rates and most sensitive to BABIP.  Delmon Young just needs to go back to hitting em where they aint and stop hitting balls off the top of the wall instead of over it.  

http://www.draysbay.com/2010/4/17/1425063/understanding-small-sample-sizes

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/expanding-on-four-factors-fun-with-math/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/expanded-four-factors-the-average-player/

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