The Best Twins Team of the Ron Gardenhire Era

by Bobomojo on Sep 22, 2010 9:00 AM EDT in By the Numbers

In nine seasons managing the Twins, Ron Gardenhire has taken the club on its greatest stretch of regular-season success since the second half of the 1960s: six division titles, five 90-win seasons, and only one year with a losing record. It's been an absolutely incredible run (however frustrating in its lack of postseason success) that has reinvigorated a once-moribund franchise, established a new generation of Twins fans, and, well, played a huge role in the construction of the best ballpark in the majors.

And, judging solely by regular season success, 2010 is the crowning jewel of the Ron Gardenhire era in Minnesota.

After last night's division-clinching victory, the Twins currently have a record of 91 wins and 60 losses, good for a .603 winning percentage. That's easily the best winning percentage of the Gardenhire era, and the highest the Twins have posted since 1970. And there's no reason to think the team's win-loss record is aided by luck: looking solely at the team's runs scored and runs allowed (using the Pythagorean Theorem), the Twins expected winning percentage is .596, also the best of the Gardenhire era.

Year	G	W	L	W/L%	Exp. W/L%
2010	151	91	60	0.603	0.596
2009	163	87	76	0.534	0.530
2008	163	88	75	0.540	0.548
2007	162	79	83	0.488	0.496
2006	162	96	66	0.593	0.572
2005	162	83	79	0.512	0.517
2004	162	92	70	0.568	0.539
2003	162	90	72	0.556	0.525
2002	161	94	67	0.584	0.534

What makes this the best Twins team under Ron Gardenhire? Well, let's start with offense.

In terms of runs scored, the 2010 club doesn't appear to be anything special compared to the rest of the Gardenhire-led clubs:

Year	Runs/G
2010	4.90
2009	5.01
2008	5.09
2007	4.43
2006	4.94
2005	4.25
2004	4.81
2003	4.94
2002	4.77

But remember, scoring is down considerably across the league this season. The following chart shows the team's runs per game compared to the league-wide average, with another column showing the percentage difference between the Twins runs scored and league average:

Year	R/G	Lg R/G	Team vs. League
2010	4.90	4.47	+9.6%
2009	5.01	4.82	+4.0%
2008	5.09	4.78	+6.4%
2007	4.43	4.90	-9.5%
2006	4.94	4.97	-0.5%
2005	4.25	4.76	-10.8%
2004	4.81	5.01	-3.9%
2003	4.94	4.86	+1.7%
2002	4.77	4.81	-0.8%

As you can see, when we adjust for the league-wide decline in run scoring, we're looking at the best Twins offense Gardenhire has ever managed. This is made more remarkable when we consider the loss of Morneau; the lengthy DL stints for Hudson and Hardy; and the significant regression from Mauer, Kubel, Cuddyer, and Span. The difference? Well, first, Morneau's incredible first half and the addition of Jim Thome, but close behind has to be the depth of the line-up, and the lack of "automatic outs" that have plagued the Twins for far too long.

With Valencia firmly entrenched at third, the worst offensive season among any of our "regulars" is Denard Span, who is currently sitting on an OPS+ of 85 (OPS+ uses 100 as a baseline for major league average - Span's OPS+ of 85 means he's posted an OPS 15% below league average, when adjusted for park, league, etc). Two other players - Hardy and Hudson - are sitting just below league average. Compare that to the prior seasons under Gardenhire:

Year	Players (the numbers represent their OPS+)
2009	Casilla - 44, Gomez - 64
2008	Gomez -77, three other regulars below league average
2007	Punto - 53, Bartlett - 89, three other regulars below league average
2006	RonDL White - 66, Lew Ford - 57, Kubel - 72
2005	Six of nine regulars posted an OPS+ below league average
2004	See 2005
2003	Guzman - 77, Rivas - 80, two others below league average
2002	Guzman - 79, Rivas - 84, two others below league average

Acquiring capable middle of the infield bats in the off-season, along with the emergence of Danny Valencia, has allowed the Twins to routinely fill out a line-up card stacked top to bottom with quality hitters. Without this depth, it's hard to imagine the Twins would have been able to survive the injuries and regression I noted above, and still post the team's best offensive season during Gardenhire's tenure.

What about keeping runs off the board, you ask? Well, just looking simply at runs allowed, one could also say this has been the best run prevention team in the Gardenhire era:

Year	RA/G
2010	3.95
2009	4.69
2008	4.57
2007	4.48
2006	4.22
2005	4.09
2004	4.41
2003	4.68
2002	4.42

Given that pitching and defense were the Twins calling card for much of Gardenhire's time at the helm, the fact we're giving up fewer runs per game this season than any of the previous eight is pretty impressive. However, again we must adjust for the league wide decline in scoring:

Year	RA/G	Lg RA/G	Team vs. League
2010	3.95	4.43	-10.8%
2009	4.69	4.75	-1.2%
2008	4.57	4.68	-2.3%
2007	4.48	4.82	-7.2%
2006	4.22	4.87	-13.4%
2005	4.09	4.68	-12.7%
2004	4.41	4.99	-11.6%
2003	4.68	4.87	-3.9%
2002	4.42	4.80	-7.9%

So, maybe a little less impressive when we make that adjustment, but we can still say that this is the best pitching/defensive team the Twins have fielded since Johan Santana (should have) won three consecutive Cy Young awards.

Combining the best offense the Twins have had under Gardenhire with a pitching staff that has been nearly as effective as the Santana-Radke-Nathan led staffs of 2004-2006, it's pretty clear why this is the best Twins team of the 21^st Century. The front office had an incredibly successful off-season, and helped plug the holes in the bullpen in July and August. The farm system produced a quality bat and glove at third base, the Twins biggest need for several years. Gardenhire mixed and matched a line-up beset with major injuries perfectly, and kept Jim Thome healthy and productive from April through September. Put it all together, and you have one heck of a ball club.

It's funny, as I was writing this, I was playing a little game of "what could have been." Imagine this season with a full MVP-caliber performance from Morneau. Imagine if Mauer had his MVP season in 2010 rather than 2009. Imagine if Nathan survived spring training. Imagine if Span, Cuddyer, and Kubel hadn't regressed so severely. Put a few of those things together, and you have a team that could have potentially entered the rarified realm of...what? 105 wins? Something bigger?

But then it occurred to me: last year, we had career years from several players, and it took each and every one of them to put us in the postseason. This season, we had enough depth and talent to put together a great ball club despite many, many setbacks. Besides being another reminder to "be careful what you wish for," it's also a testament to Bill Smith, Ron Gardenhire, and the entire organization. Surviving the loss of Nathan and Morneau is an absolutely incredible feat that I, for one, haven't taken the time to fully appreciate during this incredible second half. Whatever happens in October, it won't change what the organization has accomplished during the past six months.

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Comments

Gardenhire for Manager of the Year

This has been and still is an amazing and fun to watch season!

by twinscrazy_german on Sep 22, 2010 9:23 AM EDT reply actions

Gardy is a little overdue, I reckon.

Hope He gets it this year. Probably depend on Postseason sucess? WS Title would be better though.

by BigSkyViking on Sep 22, 2010 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Postseason success/WS title will lock it up for him

But he can already be considered a lock for managing the team to such enormous success in spite of key injuries.

by MarshalltheIrish on Sep 22, 2010 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm pretty sure they vote at the end of the regular season

So playoff results are not considered.

by John_Locke on Sep 22, 2010 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Then it's his for sure

by MarshalltheIrish on Sep 23, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Manager or ownership?

“What makes this the best Twins team under Ron Gardenhire?” Payroll.

This is by far the largest payroll that MN has had. Also, a lot of their players are peaking. Who deserves the credit?

Is it Gardenhire for managing? If so, what has he done differently this year which makes him better?

Is it Bill Smith for the players he brought in? Is it that he picked the right players to bring in, given the dollars he had to spend?

Is it the Pohlads, for opening their wallets? Did they make some smart decision?

Is it the voters and legislature in MN, who approved the new ballpark, which added to revenue, which afforded the dollars for the Pohlads to spend, which allowed Bill Smith to bring in new players, which allowed Gardy to manage a better team, that won more games?

I say we paid $350 million for this team, so it better be good.

by snolls on Sep 22, 2010 9:49 AM EDT reply actions

Lame.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"This is about rooting for each other, staying positive, it doesn't mean anything unless you put the effort into it." Ron Gardenhire

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Sep 22, 2010 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions

All of the above

Spread the credit around

by DJL44 on Sep 22, 2010 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions

It's everyone.

But Gardy definitely deserves credit.

by Jesse on Sep 22, 2010 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions

I'd say Bill Smith...

more than anyone. He had arguably the best offseason of any GM in Twins history.

Thome/Hudson/Hardy/Pavano were all great moves.

by DJSkillz on Sep 22, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Sure, he gets credit, too.

It’s hard to say who gets or deserves more credit. A good GM can’t be as successful without a good coach, and vice versa. The players themselves, payroll, luck…it all comes into play.

by Jesse on Sep 22, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Any team with Punto

on the roster should be expected to make the postseason – period. That’s what teams with grit do.

I would give Gardenhire the award. If the Yankees won without Jeter and Rivera, I’d think about Girardi, but no…

"'Over'? Did you say 'over'? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell, no!"

by rubberbiscuit on Sep 22, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Hey, they are winning with out Jeter!

Bah-dum-bump.

by KLP on Sep 22, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Applause

by MarshalltheIrish on Sep 22, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Gardy deserves credit

For winning without our best player for half the season. If Morneau was healthy, he’d be a front runner for MVP.

by Cobra312004 on Sep 22, 2010 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Jesse

If Gardy deserves the credit, I think you have to show what he did that wouldn’t be expected of another team.

We all thought the Twins would be very good this year. The performances of Thome, Pavano, Young and Duensing significantly exceeded our expectations.

Either I think you have to show that Gardenhire was responsible for those improvements, or that other coaches would have done more poorly with this team.

Based on this teams track record, combined with the increased spending, I think most people would not be surprised at the Twins record.

As for Bill Smith, you have to show that he spent the money more wisely than others. I think he did a great job with Thome, Hardy and Pavano, so I do think he gets some credit, but we all expected the team to improve a lot with more money to spend.

by snolls on Sep 22, 2010 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions

The Twins are winning.

He deserves credit for that, because he’s the manager. It’s as simple as that. Credit, for managers and GMs, is based on results. If a team continually wins, the people in charge deserve credit.

Asking for people to show what Gardy has done versus what may or may not have been expected versus another hypothetical team is a ridiculous request, because unless there’s a way of evaluating a manager’s performance that I’m unfamiliar with it becomes an exercise in speculation.

Teams can do things in spite of the actions (or non-actions) of managers and front office personnel, absolutely. But if the Twins are winning in spite of Gardy or in spite of the front office, then you really have to ask what your expectations were—because 6 division titles in 9 years is great.

And just because a team lived up to expectations this year (“…most people would not be surprised at the Twins record.”), that’s no reason to NOT give credit. A team playing like you expect them to isn’t a sure thing in sports, and the Twins managed to do that without Morneau and various other major players at certain points in the season. I give a lot of credit to the players for that, but you can’t not credit the manager.

And again, just because a team has more money to spend, that doesn’t mean you give less credit to the front office: they’re still winning. All that changes is that they have less of an excuse to lose. They money still needs to be invested wisely, even if they have more options than in previous years.

by Jesse on Sep 22, 2010 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Well then

I suppose I could have waited 30 seconds and just let this post stand on its own.

by archie2227 on Sep 22, 2010 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions

How?

Either I think you have to show that Gardenhire was responsible for those improvements, or that other coaches would have done more poorly with this team.

Both of those are completely unprovable.

by archie2227 on Sep 22, 2010 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Payroll

Gardy detractors say “the payroll increased so of course the twins won”
This ignores that over 10% of the teams paroll went down before the season started.
Another 10% went down half way through.
(rough liberal arts math)

Hell, after Nathan went down not many people thought the twins would win the division!

Gardy presed all the right buttons this year…the 2006 team was his beat team but this year was his best season.

by clutterheart on Sep 22, 2010 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I disagree

This is his best team. He has done a good job. But his team leads baseball in WAR, so it should lead the league in wins.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Sep 22, 2010 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Try to separate them, it's an illusion

Chicken or egg?

by DJL44 on Sep 22, 2010 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes, all these things

All these things play a factor… but Joe Posnanski has kind of made a Gardy believer out of me. He’s had a lot of things to shuffle around, a lot of guys to keep playing well. He’s managed Thome perfectly, he’s kept his bullpen fresh, he’s kept his important players playing as well as they can. I don’t think managers have a TON of influence over the mental aspects of where players are sitting (ok, with MOST players), but he does have to manage their understanding of their roles, manage the wear and tear being put onto bodies (like Thomes), and keep a team from going totally under like the Ozzie Guillen allowed the White Sox to after the first game in Chicago (seriously, the way they lost 8 in a row to end things that fast was totally unprofessional and disgraceful).

Gardy was given great weapons by the front office, and they’ve gone and played amazingly well, but Gardy has had weapons break and had to pick the right piece to replace them. Plus, he’s not evern playing Punto, so that’s a plus.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Sep 23, 2010 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Nice overview.

I’d suspected that the offense looked pretty good once you adjusted for the scoring environment. Similarly, the down seasons of some guys don’t look as down once you consider the average OPS in the league is down 25 points or so.

The Rays, Yanks and Red Sox have scored more runs per game than us, but once you adjust for home ballpark, they are extremely close to the Twins in overall offensive firepower. It’s going to be a really tough playoffs in the AL, but we can go toe-to-toe with anyone.

by Luke in MN on Sep 22, 2010 9:49 AM EDT reply actions

@@@Fire Gardy!!111!@@@

Gardy outmanaged again!!11

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Sep 22, 2010 9:50 AM EDT reply actions

Congrats Twins fans

This is a very good team and you guys had a great year. Of course I can’t bring myself to root for you. Lets not get too crazy. :-)

Ramirez’s actual answer: "That’s a stupid question. I’m here to play baseball and that has nothing to do with playing baseball."

Cora’s translation: "I’m just worried about playing baseball. I’m not worried about hair or nothing."

by Tdogg on Sep 22, 2010 9:54 AM EDT reply actions

God damn I hate you guys!!!!!!!

But your team did what was necessary, you took advantage of many mistakes (THOME!), and did what was necessary to win, and for that I tip my hat.

Your team are monsters!!!! And perhaps may do better this year in postseason.

I’m with Tdogg though, can’t cheer for you, but congrats on your championship and season to remember!!!! Good luck in postseason!

"Twenty-one, I felt like is one of the best corners in this league, especially that nobody knows about."-Brett Favre (On Vontae Davis 9/19/10)

"It's the Chicago Blackhawks man."-Jeremy Roenick 6/9/10

YOUR 2010 STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS...THE CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS!!!!

by rangerjae on Sep 22, 2010 10:42 AM EDT reply actions

Twins are a solid team

No terrible weaknesses in this Twins team. Everybody hits at least a little. Everybody fields well. Good characters all around. Mentors that command respect, like Jim Thome, Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan. Good coaches, and a manager that does a good job. This team has a lot of positive factors going for it.

by jimbo55403 on Sep 22, 2010 12:31 PM EDT reply actions

Not quite that rosy

The outfield and Cuddyer at 1B haven’t fielded well at all. Fortunately these are the least important positions for fielding prowess.

Bill Smith made great in-season adjustments also. My only complaint is paying too much for Matt Capps but it’s a minor complaint. Acquiring Matt Capps was a great idea. More importantly they didn’t panic with the rotation. They believed in the talent they have for starting pitching and didn’t give it all away to get Oswalt or Cliff Lee. That repaid big dividends.

by DJL44 on Sep 22, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions