Cuddyer Twins MVP?
by cmathewson on Sep 4, 2010 9:00 PM EDT
Email
PrintAnother nationally televised broadcast, another reason to be thankful for our local TV broadcast crew. Of all the things today's crew said, the most ridiculous was made by the color guy, Eric Karros:
In talking with several Twins officials, they all said Cuddyer is the Twins MVP this year.
I don't doubt that several Twins officials said this, but it is so ridiculous, I can't help writing about it.
Let's look at Cuddyer's numbers offensively:
.275/.340/.426/.766 WAR: 6.2
That's not bad, but the claim is he's the Twins MVP. So we should look at some other Twins to see who might have a higher WAR.
Let's start with Mauer:
.372/.402/.472 WAR 23.1
So it's pretty clear that Mauer is the better offensive player. But that's only half the story. The half that makes the claim that Cuddyer is the MVP ridiculous is not his marginal offensive value,
The context of the claim was how Cuddyer has ably replaced Justin Morneau at first base. Ably? By my count, he's 2-22 in digging out low throws at first. We wondered why J.J. Hardy hardly ever made an error when Justin was the first baseman. We see it almost every game with Cuddyer. Hardy throws the ball on a hop to Cuddyer, he jabs at it and it bounces off his glove. E6. Hardy has committed six of his eight errors with Cuddyer at first, despite the fact that Cuddyer has been at first for 58 games and Morneau was at 1B for 77 games. But let us not deal with anecdotal evidence. Let us look at the real evidence:
UZR/150:
RF: -16.9
1B: -11.3
Defensive WAR: -12.9
That's right. His defensive value makes him nearly a net negative. And this is the guy who's supposed to be the Twins MVP?
I like Cuddy. He's an important part of this team. But he has no business being called the Twins MVP. I only used Mauer as an example. But here's an incomplete list of more deserving candidates:
- Liriano: WAR of 6.0
- Morneau:Even if he doesn't play another game, he will provide more value than Cuddyer. WAR: 5.2
- Mauer: He's the obvious MVP WAR:4.7 This is an injustice because they can't give him much value for being a catcher considering that their calculations so heavily skew towards range, which is nonexistent for a catcher. But I would give him MVP right now based on his 4.7 offensive WAR for a catcher.
- Orlando Hudson: 3.5
- Carl Pavano: 3.3
- Denard Span: 2.5
- Danny Valencia: Huge WAR for so short a stint: 2.4
- Jim Thome; 2.3 (before 9/04)
- Scott Baker 2.3
- J.J. Hardy 1.7
- Kevin Slowey 1.6
- Delmon Young: 1.4
- Brian Duensing: 1.4
- Jesse Crain: 0.9
- Jon Rauch 0.9
- Michael Cuddyer 0.6
- Jason Kubel: 0.5
The upshot? Cuddyer is so far from being the Twins' MVP it's just silly to call him that. He's a valuable player on this team because he's a consistent right handed bat to balance out all the left handers. But he's 16 out of 25 or so regulars. He's the very definition of mediocre. MVP? Bah.
67 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
It's gotta be RAR
otherwise Mauer’s 23.1 WAR means he’s having the greatest season ever.
And
The twins would have 96 wins
The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot. -Joe Posnanski
on
on the radio, Dazzle and Gordo were discussing over and under rated players, and they said that Cuddy was one of the more underrated players in the league
by DedicatedFollowerOfFashion on Sep 4, 2010 9:14 PM EDT reply actions
Woo, good catch
Don’t know where Ryan Klesco came from. Fixed.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
where's thome?
good rant there, but i think cuddy has picked up his game lately. seems to be hitting better in the clutch. but for my money, team mvp is jim thome.
and you can put it on the boaaaaaard YES, HELL YES
I think there's a lot of value in not having Chris Parmelee playing first.
Or Tolbert (shudder).
Not that I would give Cuddyer the team MVP, but I can see where they’re coming from. WAR isn’t everything.
Pretty simple to grab someone else in a trade
1B is one of the easier positions to fill at the deadline. Nobody would take Lyle Overbay for example.
WAR!
Huh! Yeah! What is it good for?
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Sep 5, 2010 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
ABSOLUTELY
(whisper) Nothin’!
SAY IT AGAIN!
by MarshalltheIrish on Sep 5, 2010 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah loved it.
At least this guy was funny. The 5 guys who voted for Punto were trying to be funny but got shown up by the Tolbert vote.
The question is an insult to the Twins philosophy
The whole notion of MVP is antithetical to the team-oriented philosophy that Gardenhire and the whole staff tries to impress on every player in the organization, from rookie league through the bigs.
Take it back, or I’ll tell Mom!
cuddy
about 2 months ago i heard them say on the radio that gardy/the clubhouse thought he was the team MVP. he doesn’t have the stats but he’s played wherever he’s been asked to and he’s performed well. I think there’s a lot to cuddy we don’t see. he’s a leader in the clubhouse, he’s always positive, and he seems to come through when we need him most. is there anyone else who could bring what cuddy does to this team? where would we be without him? boned. he’s a team player, never brings attention to himself and he encourages his teammates. he’s not the statistical mvp, but i feel like i understand the logic.
Agreed
Michael Cuddyer isn’t the Twins MVP by the statistical standpoint, but he gives it his all on and off the field. We’ll keep him until someone better comes along. Case in point, I wanted Michael to break it open in the seventh, but it wasn’t to be. Still Cuddles gets an A for trying.
The fact that he puts up very good numbers and can play so many positions
Makes him invaluable to the team, in my opinion. He could technically be the best “utility player” in Twins history. His versatility is the reason we’ll likely stick with him: Even if someone like Jayson Werth actually does become available (according to the recently discussed/mocked ESPN rumors), Cuddles would still be a keeper.
by MarshalltheIrish on Sep 5, 2010 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions
proof
That sabermetrics are only a piece of the puzzle named evaluation. Fantasy baseball has morphed many a fan’s perception of players, reducing them to a pile of numbers. We cannot forget that we are dealing with flesh and blood human beings, for whom intangibles count and matter. That’s why I understood what Gardy meant when he said it, and I still do now.
by gbg on Sep 5, 2010 10:42 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
How is this proof of anything?
Not that I disagree, but this is just what managers/players say all the time to avoid making meaningful statements. I agree that the main reason he has value is his ability to play multiple positions (not that he’s any good at any of them…)
also also-
i want there to be a rando opportunity for cuddy to pitch, so he could get a shot at playing every position this season, thought it might happen in that game against the tiggys, if there was ever a game to throw… ….but i guess he’ll never catch
Not a statistical MVP
Not close. Much like the inning-eater with a 4.30 ERA gets no awards, Cuddyer’s overall numbers are mediocre. The homers are way down, and he’s on pace for 80some RBI. He’s provided continuity and consistency from the right side and continues to play hard no matter what the score.
You won’t find a lot of players like Cuddyer—he is over 30 and has spent his career with the Twins.. He’s exceeded 100 RBI and 100 runs scored in one season and exceeded 30 homers in another, yet he’s never been an All-Star.
I don’t believe that defensive statistics are accurate or more correctly that they capture proper value for a player. Cuddyer is a fine player, and his performance has been essential in securing two Central Division championships. MVP of the team—probably not, but a good and valuable player? Absolutely.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 4, 2010 11:09 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I voted Liriano
His quality was more pivotal to the season than most others. From the very beginning we all knew our chances would be far greater if he returned to his old form, and he’s done that all year. There have certainly been recent candidates (Duensing comes to mind), and the given ones (Mauer and Morneau), as well as surprises (Pavano and Valencia). But Liriano’s stability is make or break, and the clear choice for a game one starter.
by MarshalltheIrish on Sep 4, 2010 11:37 PM EDT reply actions
My vote was for Carl Pavano
The reason for that vote is because Carl has been our most consistent pitcher this season. Meanwhile the underrated Jason Kubel would be my second pick followed by Joe Mauer, Jim Thome, and Liriano.
Young might have been the MVP
… if he did not hit a wall in August and turn into Butera at the plate.
Marty Marion won the league mvp with the st. louis cardinals in the 40s
And there were other players (Stan Musial etc.) way better than he. It was more of a leadership award that year. If they really define mvp in those terms, then perhaps Cuddy being the mvp is justified. However, statistically this is not the case.
I think Cuddy deserves it for filling in
but I think Pavano deserves it for keeping the pitching staff together during that rough patch. But as corny as it sounds…they’re all MVP’s because they lost their All-Star first baseman, and they have done very well filling in during injuries.
They’re all great. That’s all.
I'm still a Minnesotan at heart...
WTF?
Why didn’t Morneau get more votes? He’s got a concussion and now nobody cares anymore, I guess.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Sep 5, 2010 9:48 AM EDT reply actions
He was far and away the MVP before he got hurt, and even now he still might be
I would have voted for him if I’d noticed how few votes he’s getting so far.
so you can run and tell that, run and tell that, run and tell that
homeboy, home, home, homeboy
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Sep 5, 2010 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I hardly even remember who Jason Morneau is these days.
"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez
Jerry Merlot
was a pretty good 1B and could be a big part of the Twins future but I guess the front office wanted him back on the farm so he could play everyday.
anyone know if he’s going to come back and help the Twins for the playoff push? He could jump start the offense to the next gear…
M is for "most" not more
He’s one of our more valuable players, but you can’t be “most” if you miss sixty games. If we were all to post our top-five with 5-4-3-2-1 voting per slot, then Justin would be well represented.
Right
But how can it not be Mauer?
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
LNP?
A couple folks either have a STRANGE sense of humor, or they really appreciate “grit and hustle.”
Voted Pavano
He really held the team together through that rough patch in June. Most Valuable Player should take into consideration those kinds of intangibles. I really feel like without Pavano stepping up (as well as Young and Morneau) during that time, we’d be sitting way behind the Sox right now.
I had to give Liriano some love
I feel like he’s really underappreciated sometimes. Not that we don’t appreciate him, but sometimes we don’t appreciate just how good he is.
so you can run and tell that, run and tell that, run and tell that
homeboy, home, home, homeboy
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Sep 5, 2010 12:24 PM EDT reply actions
Went with Mauer
The easy way out. Almost went with Pavano tho.
Cuddyer is actually a very valuable player, with willing to play all over the place on the field. That flexibility really helps out the team as a whole, allowing other players to play and such. So as much as I might bash Cuddyer, I do think he is somewhat underrated.
"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez
I think if we were paying Cuddy around $7 million a year
There would be nothing but love for him. He’s a great guy, the definition of a team player, and I can’t think of anything negative to say about him short of the fact that he’s not a superstar.
But as it stands, he, Kubel and Young are all very similar pieces to our team. Although we like them all, we may not have room for all three going forward.
Playing multiple positions is nice. But let’s not overstate the “value” of putting in a dozen games at 3B and 2 at second. Basically he’s split time at first and RF.
Agreed
Especially, at the time, it was probably 3B or bench for Cuddy. Morneau was going well, Kubel was starting to hit and Delmon was on fire. Actually, the Cuddy to third experiment hurt the club in retrospect. If Valencia had played those games, he would have emerged sooner, I suppose. That said, not many over 30 veterans who have the most seniority on the club would consent to such a move.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 5, 2010 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Pavano
has been the savior of our pitching staff. Just remember back to that game in Phillie when he went 9 after out BP was in shambles from 2 short starts in the previous 2 games. How many complete games does he have? Not to mention just long starts, he has even stood in there when he didn’t have his best stuff and has taken a few for the team.
With all these explanations
I’m leaning more towards Pavano as well. I think I’ve gotten so used to seeing him pitch so great that it’s easy to forget not only how he held us through that mucky period, but that few expected him to be this outstanding going into the season. He’s the staff workhorse.
by MarshalltheIrish on Sep 5, 2010 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I voted for Young
Because nobody else is really standing out for me.\
Incidentally, this poll shows highlights the sarcasm of the TT community
63% of all statistics are made up, including this one.
Oh yeah and so is that “2-22 in digging out low throws at first” bullcrap.
Yes he hasn’t been a defensive star, but let’s not make shit up and stick it into the middle of actual numbers.
My life's goal: to force fischean itno using her moderator powers or, at the very least, using her witch magic to impoove my spelling.
by montanatwinsfan on Sep 6, 2010 11:23 PM EDT reply actions
BTW - I think Cuddyer is overpaid for the offensive value he brings to the table
and defensively he is below average no matter where he plays, but gol darn it sometimes the numbers only tell a part of the story.
My life's goal: to force fischean itno using her moderator powers or, at the very least, using her witch magic to impoove my spelling.
by montanatwinsfan on Sep 6, 2010 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I actually counted
He missed 20 in a row. Then he caught the last three, including one since I posted my made-up stat. not coincidentally, he’s caught every one since he switched to a bigger glove. What is made up about it is when I started to count. I started to count when I noticed a lot of low throws not handled. So I don’t know what his overall percentage is since he started playing over there. I started counting in early August.
You could correlate Valencia, Hudson and Hardy throwing errors to my count. Hardy’s had five since August 1, Hudson’s had four (one of which was way over his head, so that doesn’t count). Valencia’s had two. Some of the low throws that weren’t handled cleanly were not errors, though. The official scorer often gives the guy an infield hit on a close play. Most of the errors resulted in the guy getting an extra base when the throw went down the first-base line.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Also, I think we're spoiled by Morneau
He catches everything. But missing 20 in a row was a pretty big deal. I bring it up because Cuddy is such an untouchable around here, no one else wanted to mention it.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Also, a lot of the low throws were on the back end of a DP
Since the official scorer can’t assume a DP, those were not errors either, unless the ball got away, allowing the runner to go to second.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
well, I am dubious of your counting, because for a short while in August I was counting too.
Cuddyer had made every single scoop for two or three games in a row and I remarked about it in a game thread. DavidRF called me on it and disagreed with me about Cuddyer’s ability. he and I disagreed during that game thread, and sure enough Cuddyer missed the very next scoop. He missed a lot of them after that over the next several games to the point where I stopped paying attention and conceded to DavidRF that I was obviously putting too much emphasis on the sss that I had seen up to that point.
But even during the period where he blew my defense of him out of the water he made far more scoops than 2.
My life's goal: to force fischean itno using her moderator powers or, at the very least, using her witch magic to impoove my spelling.
by montanatwinsfan on Sep 7, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I am dubious? Haha, maybe I am.
But more properly I guess I am skeptical, not dubious.
My life's goal: to force fischean itno using her moderator powers or, at the very least, using her witch magic to impoove my spelling.
by montanatwinsfan on Sep 7, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
You're both
But it is possible I missed a play or two. Probably day games while I was working or something. Still, whether he was 0-20 or 5-25, he was still horrendous compared to Morneau, who’s like 95-100.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
you forgot, pessimist, curmudgeon, troglodyte, and barnyard voyeur.
My life's goal: to force fischean itno using her moderator powers or, at the very least, using her witch magic to impoove my spelling.
by montanatwinsfan on Sep 7, 2010 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I picked Pavano
It was tough between Pavano and Liriano. I think because Pavano put in such a great June while almost everyone was sucking, that really did it for me. He consistently goes deep into the game, something that Liriano doesn’t do. That helps win ballgames AND save the bullpen. It’s got to be Pavs.
Liriano did well in June too, only one clunker that I can remember, but Pavs is it. Consistent in almost every way.
Delmon would be third for me and if Morneau never went down… I would have said him at the top.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
Yes, Mauer's defensive WAR is way too low
They admit they don’t do a good job with evaluating catchers’ defense. IMO, he provides at least as much value from his work behind the plate as he does from his work in the batter’s box and on the bases.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
A lot of what a catcher provides is intangibles
Calling the game, handling the pitcher, etc. You can’t measure that. Its like he’s an assistant coach.
For tangible events, CS’s, PB’s, putouts… those just don’t happen often enough to have as much weight on the tangible events measured for other positions. I think a lot of people want to give catcher defense more weight because of how hard it is and how few people can do it well, but there’s just not much to measure.
So, WAR uses that “Rpos” number to boost catchers due to “positional scarcity”. Mauer gets a smaller boost than other catchers because he DH’s on his off days.
FWIW, Mauer ranks 2nd in the AL in Catcher-Defense by how bb-ref measures WAR. Weiters gets one more defensive run.
Take 10% of the WAR of the pitching staff
Give it to the catchers. Currently ALL of that is going to the pitchers when in reality Mauer is responsible for some portion of those results. That’s an additional 1.9 WAR for Mauer and Butera to divide.
There are ways to measure pitch-calling, none of which are particularly accurate at the moment
Framing pitches, however is an interesting problem that has been explored recently. There was a good article somewhere on SBN a few months ago that has the best take I’ve seen on the subject, and rated Mauer slightly above-average. Don’t know about Butera, of course.
It depends
Fangraphs WAR doesn’t really include catcher defense. BR, on the other hand, has TotalZone numbers, and Mauer is listed as +5, which is second in the AL (one behind Matt Wieters). So it’s safe to say that fWAR underrates Mauer by about .6 wins, if we accept TZ catcher numbers (which, as far as I know, are servicable).
It was my understanding that Fangraphs only used throwing out base stealers in their catcher WAR
which explains Yadier Molina and Miguel Olivo…
I really have no idea what they do, but it doesn't seem either accurate or useful.
Dave Appelman said they are working on incorporating full catcher defense into UZR, so I’m hopeful.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Photo: Padres fan regrets letting mother capture moment with Trevor Hoffman
- Marlins agree to unretire No. 5 for Logan Morrison, who will honor his father’s favorite player
- Weatherman Derek Holland does Dallas TV
- Ask Alex: Will Julio Teheran or Matt Moore win rookie of the year?
- Ku Klux Klan, umpires and bowling: Why the minor leagues tossed out Jim Evans academy
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
