Outfield Defense and How to Fix the Problem in 2011
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 5, 2010 11:47 PM EDT
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PrintThe Twins outfield defense has been an Achilles heel all season. Not noticed by the casual fan, but a constant concern and worry in blogs, forums, and pages like Twinkie Town. The four principal Twins outfielders are slow (Kubel), unskilled (Young) and out of position (Span, mediocre in center, but top-notch on the corners) along with the displaced Michael Cuddyer , who might be some combination of the other three. More after the jump
All four outfielders are under team control for 2011--Kubel has an option, Cuddyer had an option already picked up, Young is arb eligible for two more years and Span is under contract at least through 2014 (2015 option), so we'll see the same faces with the same skills unless Twins management does something.
While I discount defensive metrics, my eyes and those metrics agree that Delmon Young, despite decent speed and a fine outfield arm, is among the worst defensive outfielders in major league baseball. He judges balls poorly and takes bad routes, limiting his range. He has poor hands, dropping several balls and fumbling several more and is not adept at playing caroms or making catches at the wall. Delmon has hit better than ever before--he will have career highs in homers and RBI and will almost certainly pass the century mark in RBI, but his defense hurts the club a lot. What to do with Delmon? I don't think DHing him is an answer, he is too young and the Twins probably have other, better options. Delmon was a right fielder in Tampa, but I really don't think it makes any difference. So the choice is either live with the bad defense in left or trade Mr. Young.
Right field has been patrolled by Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel. Cuddyer started 66 games in right before the All-Star break but hasn't been out there since July 7th, due to Justin Morneau's injury. Cuddy isn't fast, doesn't display great instincts or take great routes. He catches what he gets to and has almost as strong an arm as Young, but much more accurate. At best, he grades out average as a right fielder. Kubel has the need for speed. He was slated to be the primary DH, but the need to use Jim Thome as DH, coupled with Morneau's injury has made Kubel the primary RF. Kubel, in contrast to the others, makes good decisions and takes good routes. He also catches what he gets to, but hasn't been great corralling balls that have already hit the ground. The real problem is range, lack of it. Kubel is a slow runner and just doesn't get to balls that other right fielders can catch. Kubel throws well enough as well.
Denard Span was outstanding in both left and right field in the past two years. There is no reason to doubt that he would again be outstanding if he was a corner outfielder. Denard has shown himself to be only average as a center fielder. He has made some bad decisions and taken some bad routes on balls (especially over his head) and he has collided with both his corner outfielders and middle infielders. It hasn't been all bad, Denard has good range and has made a handful of good to great catches. If he has two good-fielding corner outfielders beside him, his defense, while not worthy of a gold glove, is sufficient. Denard's offense has taken a large dip this year, but he remains the only bona fide leadoff man on the squad.
What to do, what to do? I propose the club swap outfielders with somebody. Young has increased his value with his good offensive year. I would like to see him traded for a center fielder who hits righthanded, so that Span could return to left field where he is a plus plus defender. Someone like Franklin Gutierrez of Seattle would improve defense both in left and center, while the Twins could live with adequate defense in right from Cuddyer/Kubel.
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Span will be fine
Part of why he’s not as good is he has too much ground to cover. With a good defender like Revere in LF he can cheat a little.
Does this mean you think Revere will be in LF
Do you think Revere will make the team next year? I certainly don’t. That would mean the club would have him jump two levels when he only played about 100 games at AA. Revere is possibly closer than many AA All-Stars because he doesn’t depend on slugging and he’s demonstrated decent plate discipline. His speed is an asset at any level. Also, I’m not sure we can classify Ben as a good defender just because he has great speed.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 6, 2010 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions
+1
I like Revere’s chances to be our solid 4th outfielder and if he plays plus defense then great, a tandem of him and Span with a slower slugging corner guy like Young/Kubel/Cuddy might be just fine. I do like the idea of the Twins exploring a trade for someone like Gutierrez, but I don’t see the M’s giving him up despite their need for offense. The positive is that Young’s value is up and Gutierrez is probably down a bit after a worse year at the plate. I just doubt that they’re interested in trading him.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Good defender
He may not be a gold glover but I’ll bet a dozen donuts he beats the hell out of Delmon Young.
Five outfielders
Assuming they trade Delmon that leaves Revere, Repko, Span, Cuddyer & Kubel. That’s pretty nice from an offense/defense RH/LH mix and match perspective.
Again
I would be shocked to see Revere on the Twins in April of next year. He would have needed to demonstrate the he can hit at the highest level, field his position, and be guaranteed to be in the lineup at least 75% of the time. Unless there is a trade with no immediate OF return or there is an injury to a regular I can’t see it happening.
Repko is a nice defensive outfielder. Given his upside (none, really) and inability to hit beyond a marginal level, I am not sure he will even be invited back. I presume he’ll be DFAed after the season and offered a minor league contract with the chance to play himself on the club in the spring if he wants to take that offer.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 6, 2010 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I have a hard time imagining Repko being back.
Roberts probably will fill that role if nothing else changes, with Revere/Benson/Tosoni in AAA. Or I suppose Martin could if they want Tosoni to repeat AA again, though that seems pointless to me.
We’re actually quite deep in guys with good fourth outfielder floors at the moment.
Defensive subs
I highly doubt anything is done with the OF in 2011, but I do think we’d be wise in having a nice defensive sub available to us. I don’t mind Repko filling that roll next year, especially with Joe Benson likely being in AAA and able to fill in for any injury.
I hope Span comes around with his bat, as it really isn’t playing well in either corner. Benson could be a nice CF in a couple of years, which woudl allow Span to shift ot a corner position when Cuddy or Kubel leaves.
Young and Cuddy
Are the only right handed power threat this team has
Both need to play every day and next year the OF Defense will be the same unless Thome does not come back and a DH/OF/1B platoon develops
Repko is not a player that should be considered for a roster spot. He will be DFA’ed and probably start the year at AAA.
Sometimes you have to take the bad with the good
I think the suggestion of trading Delmon is rather foolish considering he is hitting nearly .300, going to have 40-45 doubles and 16-20 HRs and drive in 100-110 RBIs by the time the year is over. And by the way, he has a tremendous arm in left (9 assists this year so far, 11 in 2008, and 16 in 2007). Sure, he’s not an elite defensive player, but he isn’t bad enough to offset the value he gives us offensively. I would much rather have Delmon than Franklin Gutierrez, especially because I think Delmon has more upside.
I'd take Gutierrez
And I might make that trade straight up.
I would
Gutierrez saves a lot of runs, and would save more for the Twins’ fly-ball staff.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Colby Rasmus?
Seems like he’s available. I imagine it would take more than just Delmon Young to get him.
Rasmus:
Expensive to get, clubhouse trouble, and simply not very good. Bad idea.
CF market should be interesting this year with both Rasmus and Nyjer Morgan probably being available. Not sure if that would make it easier or harder to get somebody the Twins would actually want. Though I expect that’s moot because they won’t give up on Span so soon, and have potential replacements a year or two away.
I'm surprised at you cmath
I normally have a lot of respect for your opinions, but this is a terrible take. Gutierrez’s BEST year was a year he hit .283 with .425 slugging and 70 RBI. He’s played 6 seasons. Delmon Young is already a far better offensive player than Gutierrez and his defense is not nearly bad enough to even consider trading him for Gutierrez straight up.
I'd do it
I would trade Young straight up for Gutirriez right now. He is a premium CF, allowiing Span to slide over to left. He has some power and a lot of speed. I think the improvement at two positions defensively is worth sacrificing some offense.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 7, 2010 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions
hmmm, I see your point
But I have to say I agree with Cmath, I’d strongly consider it at least. Yes Delmon has been great at the plate this year. Gutierrez is a fricking vacuum defensively. Think the tools of Gomez but able to use them, he takes good routes and makes accurate throws. Plus he’s better at the plate. If the Twins had an outfield next year of Span in left, Gutierrez in Center and Cuddy/Kubel in Right that would be amazing defensively. Couple that with having above average to great infield defense with Valencia, Hardy, Casilla/Tolbert/Hudson, and Morneau it’d be hard to score runs on the Twins without knocking the ball out of the park. If the Twins were to make a trade like this they would have to re-sign Hudson and Thome IMO though because our offense would be hurting. My hope would be that Benson would be able to come up and replace Kubel/Cuddyer in 2012 when they’re likely gone.
Now that I’ve reasoned it out I have to say a trade of Delmon for Franklin straight up with the corresponding move or resigning Hudson and Thome would make our team amazing and I would do it without a 2nd thought.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
He's not a great hitter
But he’s such a great fielder, his overall value is higher than Young. Also, he’s only really had two seasons of playing full time. Wedge hated him so much, he hardly ever played in Cleveland. If you take his first two seasons in Seattle and average them, that’s a really good center fielder. His hitting value is below replacement this year, but his fielding value makes him a 4 WAR player, if you average last year and this year.
On the other hand, Delmon is a good hitter. But he’s such a poor fielder, his value is limited. If you average Delmon’s WAR over the same period, you get 0.3. Last year, he was below replacement level overall. This year, he’s 1.5 wins above replacement, despite having good offensive value. He is actually lower than Gutierrez, whose WAR is 2.5 this year despite negative value offensively.
The problem with evaluating players the old fashioned way is we tend to overvalue players like Delmon, who leads the team in RBI and has a good average. But in doing so, we ignore the defensive value an outfielder brings tot he table. By all accounts, our outfield defense has been horrendous this year. The premise of this post was to upgrade our outfield defense. Trading Young for Gutierrez would do that.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Sep 8, 2010 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I agree in theory.
Gutierrez is currently more valuable than Young, and has been throughout his entire career. The one flaw in trading Young for Gutierrez is that Gutierrez has just about maxxxed out on his potential (which is very high, which is why he’s a very good player). Young on the other hand, is just realizing his potential. Down the line he could maybe be a good mediocre left fielder, while he has the potential to put up some of the most ridiculous power and average numbers in the league, which would make him more valuable than Gutierrez. And Delmon’s three years younger.
The $10 million question
How good will Young be? I’m of the opinion that this is as god as it gets. He just has so many bad habits, it will be very tough for him to develop more consistency. I’m not saying it won’t happen. It happened to Torii Hunter. But Hunter was always a great fielder. And Young is one of the worst fielders in baseball, who will only get slower with time. I just don’t see him getting much better.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
He definitely has some horrible habits.
But he cut down on his strikeouts, improved his plate discipline (still very poor), and he’s hit for more power. If his BABIP this season was at where he’s been the past three years (.338 last 3, .320 this year), he’d be hitting more like .310 or .315. I can’t really see his plate discipline getting worse, and he’s just starting to hit for power, next year he COULD hit 30+ home runs. The Twins need a power bat from the right side, and while Young has some major flaws, he can hopefully work through them hit enough home runs to make up for it.
He'll have better seasons than this one
I think he’s adjusting faster now and his slumps won’t be as deep or as long. Still, he only has 3-4 years before his defense starts to decline which will pretty much make him a DH. He might have a couple better years than this one but not a whole lot (1-2 WAR) simply because his defense is never going to be good. His bat (esp the RBI) is going to make him more expensive quickly. I think there’s one, maybe two more years where Delmon is worth more than he’s being paid.
After his last slump, I have doubts
In the last 28 days, Delmon has hit .226/.250/.344/.594. Before that slump, I would have agreed with you. But that one tells me he reverts to his bad habits as soon as he has success with his old hacker ways.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Faster is relative
Instead of taking 3 months to adjust it only takes him a month now.
OK, I'll buy that
Instead of being 10 runs below replacement level, he can adjust to slumps fast enough to be above replacement level. Woohoo!
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
You have to regress to the mean at some point...
His July numbers were equally as ridiculous, except on the other end of the spectrum.
The problem with playing Span at the corners
is his bat. His bat is fine for a CF, and assuming he’ll settle somewhere between last season’s numbers and this season’s, he’ll be more than adequate as a leadoff man. If you move him to LF (or RF), however, this means that you are removing a bat (Young, Kubel) and replacing Span in center with a similar player. If Young or Kubel are dealt, they would be replaced with someone like Ben Revere, or your suggestion, Franklin Gutierrez. Without running all the numbers, I would assume that replacing Kubel/Young with Gutierrez would hurt our expected win total, as Span’s bat would have to carry a corner spot.
Gutierrez has 10 HR and 20 doubles this year
Delmon’s got 16 HR and 37 doubles. These are stats independent of how many baserunners are on base when you get hits (a big factor in a player’s RBI total). Delmon also has twice as many RBI as Gutierrez, and while some of that is due to being on a better team that has runners in scoring position more often, other stats tell us that Delmon should be a more productive player in the future based on present and past statistics.
If Joe Benson is ready to play CF for the Twins in 2012
Then Span’s bat can play a corner outfield position. Benson has corner outfielder power, while having the defensive ability to play centerfield.
Yeah, I never get that whole "this position must do this" thought
As long as we have guys who can hit for power, guys who can hit for average, guys who can bunt…etc, does it really matter where they play as long as we have the right amount of each to make this a really good/great offensive team?
Mauer doesn’t hit like most normal catchers do, he’s better. Does that mean he should be moved because he hits better than a normal catcher and catchers aren’t supposed to be great offensively?
I don’t care if the catcher hits for power or the second baseman, even though people suggest that neither is supposed to. As long as the team has enough guys to get the job done. It shouldn’t matter who hits a certain way, just as long as it’s all balanced throughout the lineup.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
All we're saying is that its easier to upgrade Span-LF than Span-CF
A team is always looking at its nine guys and seeing which one can be upgraded.
Moving Span to an easier position means he’ll get tougher competition from affordable free agents that are available and prospects that are coming up.
Of course, there’s no law that says you can’t play a .267/.335/.347 player in LF, but we certainly don’t have to do that either if we have better options. Now, it could be that because of cost concerns injuries or the strengths of our high-minors that we use a weak bat in LF, but saying we can be “nice” to a player because we have better players elsewhere is not a winning attitude.
I agree with what you were saying
I was just responding to the other stuff about “this position must hit like this.” I’d put Span on a corner because he’s a better defender there. I don’t care that he doesn’t hit for power in the corner spot like he supposedly should. As long as the lineup is balanced throughout, it shouldn’t matter.
If there are better options, I’m all for it. I’d rather not get rid of Delmon though. He could be our only RH bat soon and as said a million times, he’s still young!
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
That was essentially what we had with Hunter and Stewart
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I dont see them moving Delmon.
Does anyone remember the post a while arguing that we should trade Pavano while his stock is high? Everyone torched the guy that made that proposal and Pavano will be shopping for walkers soon. If they were wiling to keep Delmon when he was playing average (.275 w/poor defense) why would they trade him when he starts to fulfil some of his upside? Delmon is 24 clearly getting better (this year .299/.329/.810). Kubel is at best stagnant (.260/.339/.781). Is Kubes defense really that much better than Delmon’s to warrant the difference in production? What is the cost of these two players?
Here’s some possiblilites I see for next season:
LF-Span CF-New Guy RF-Cuddy DH-Delmon (if Thome doesnt return)
Now you say why would Delmon DH over Kubel? Because he is 1.) a better hitter and 2.) a sorely need RH power bat. Counterpoint-I would expect Kubes production to rise dramatically if he were DHing but is enough to close the gap?
LF-Delmon CF-Span RF-Cuddy DH-Thome (if Thome does return) PH-Kubel
Prettty much what we have going on now but Monreau is healthy. If Kubes production is able to return to his ‘09 levels as a DH then I’d switch him and Thome.
In my mind as much as I love him, Thome isnt very valuable. He fills pretty much the same role as Kubes but cannot play RF and trades some average for taters. I think either Thome or Kubes needs to go in favor of a solid defensive OF, preferably CF. (What would Kubel be making next year? $9 mil or something? Cant we find anything better than .260/.339/.781 for $9 million dollars?
Thats the problem
The stats tell me we should get rid of Thome but my heart says I would have his baby.
if the stats are telling you that
You’re looking at the wrong stats.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Sep 6, 2010 5:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Two?
I only count one. Kubel plays an acceptable corner outfield.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 6, 2010 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
During the season versus in the offseason
The big difference there is moving Pavano during the season would be ridiculously stupid. Delmon is getting expensive enough that you can probably find a similar player at a similar price in the offseason.
I know kubes can play RF and Jimmer cant
but if we want any production from Kubes it seems like he needs to dh.
Jimmers is a windfall signing
Not fair to compare his salary with younger players. Built into Jimmers’ salary was a significant injury risk. It was like Frank Thomas’s year in Oakland.
Thome isn't valuable?
are you Ozzie Guillen?
Trade Delmon?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
Remember, he is only 25 years old, he ’s going to be a great player someday:-).
We've all been over this
Delmon could become the hitter he was in June/July and then trading him would be a big mistake. His body of work for this year is very good, but with his lack of selectivity I see it as pretty close to his ceiling. Defensively, Delmon is no better after weight loss than he was before. There is nothing to suggest he will ever be even adequate as a defender. He is arb eligible this year and will get a big raise. Replacing Young with a lesser hitter, but improving two defensive spots immensely makes sense to me. Speaking of Gutierrez specifically, he is cost controlled for 2011-13 with a club option for 2014. Getting him for big, but not huge dollars and knowing that he is rated the best defensive CF in the league tells me you would do a deal like that.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 6, 2010 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Important
That Kubel can play the outfield. Check out this year. Especially with Cuddyer as the only backup first baseman, it really matters that Kubel can play an okay right.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 6, 2010 4:49 PM EDT reply actions
Just because he can doesnt mean he should.
The evidence stronly suggests that playing RF is hurting him at the plate. Last year, mostly at DH: .300/.369.907. This year, mostly in right .260/.339/.781. Now he has either severely regressed or has had his production fall off because of playing in right. In either case his offense does not warrant his defense on this team. The only place for him is the already crowded DH (yes one guy can crowd a spot, when it’s Jim Thome).
Don't buy it
The evidence stronly suggests that playing RF is hurting him at the plate. Last year, mostly at DH: .300/.369.907. This year, mostly in right .260/.339/.781.
Kubel’s career splits by position:
LF: .275/.326/.467
RF: .274/.344/.484
DH: .275/.344/.459
This year’s splits favor the outfield even more:
LF: .263/.323/.526
RF: .276/.353/.481
DH: .238/.323/.371
Unless your argument is that he’s so tired from playing the outfield that he can’t hit when he DHs (but even then, most of his DH work was earlier in the year, before Morneau got hurt, so his legs would’ve been fresh), I don’t see how playing the outfield is hurting him.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Might I suggest Target Field
I think Target Field has a lot to do with Kubel’s regression. Another factor is that he wasn’t spotted much against lefties, which the splits suggest should be done. Cuddyer seems to have been effected too. One can also add that the pitchers have come on this year throughout baseball and 19 homers and 83 RBI isn’t too bad, despite the lower BA.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 6, 2010 6:27 PM EDT reply actions
keep DY in left for 2011
keep the status quo with revere spot starting in left when baker pitches against RHP. let cuddy’s club option expire after the season, then reassess for 2012.
delmon is actually trending into a better outfielder, and if cuddy goes down, that could leave the twins with a gaping RH power void. the twins should have more wiggle room in 2012 as long as they dont pick up anybody else’s overpriced club options before they need to (nathan).
and you can put it on the boaaaaaard YES, HELL YES
Revere is not a platoon player
The Twins are going to have Ben Revere playing everyday in MLB or AAA. They aren’t going to make him a platoon player.
Is Cuddy a lock to return?
I thought there was talk a while ago (weeks months?) that he was getting too expensive. It’s an odd situation where our outfielders are bad enough where we can recognize that we need an upgrade but all are good enough that we dont want to part with them. Why cant we have 2 great ones and a stinker?
Yes Cuddy's coming back
He had what I think was kind of an odd extension in his contract. The Twins had to decide shortly after the 2009 season to pick up his 2011 option. He had a great year, we had to take him back. It’s not looking stupid right now and he has definitely been useful playing at 1B this year in Morneau’s absence. He’s probably a bit overpaid and will be again next year but then he’ll either sign a team friendly deal or be on his way out in 2012.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Barring a trade
And I don’t see them trading him. His value is below his 2011 contract. And he’s the only aback-up first baseman in the system.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Trade one of the corners
I am in the boat that says we should trade Young or Kubel to upgrade defensively. I really don’t care which one, the only qualifier being the return. Maybe we could get some young middle infield talent in return?
Best case scenario would be to trade for a good outfielder. Trading for an established outfielder with an established outfielder may be a difficult proposition. That sort of deal does not go down very often. If we can make it happen, great, but we may be looking at a FA acquisition to fill our want. Rick Ankiel, David DeJesus or Coco Crisp would be reasonable. Maybe the FO would surprise and make a run at Jayson Werth.
I am not worried about Span. The man is solid in CF. He will not be a GGer at any point, but he gets to all the balls he should and almost nothing beyond that. If he had better flanks, the oweness would not be on him to catch EVERYTHING that is hit between our slogging corners. I am not opposed to him being a corner OFer, I just don’t think he is overmatched in CF like so many commentors in the blogosphere.
onus
My life's goal: to force fischean itno using her moderator powers or, at the very least, using her witch magic to impoove my spelling.
by montanatwinsfan on Sep 7, 2010 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions
If the Twins trade a corner OF
I would prefer Delmon to be traded. I think his defense is that bad that even a year like this year only makes him an average player. His defensive problems really aren’ t laziness or indifference, he is just not good at it. As i said in an earlier post, unless and until Young is more selective, he isn’t going to do any better than he has been this year despite his relative youth. Trading Young for a center fielder like Gutierrez would improve the outfield defense at two positions. It would return a RH batter with similar power to the guy who was traded. Gutierrez wouldn’t figure to hit as well as Young, but he wouldn’t have to.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 7, 2010 3:40 PM EDT reply actions
Totally agree
Everyone says Delmon is young, but he’s had 4 full seasons in the Bigs. As a starter over 90% of the time. He is who he is. I doubt he’ll be any diferent at 28 than at 24. He’s already had the MLB experience of someone in their late 20’s.
And his regression is hitting since Aug. 1 is really bad. Combine that with horrendous defense and a questionable attitude and if the Twins could get Gutierrex even up. that would be a great trade for the Twins.
My guess is the Twins aren’t going to be able to give the guy away. A streaky hitter, suitable strictly as a DH, and a poor attitude aren’t exactly what teams are looking for.
Attitude?
Everyone has sung Young’s praises for his attitude this year. I think he has matured in that respect. As he gets older, he is less and less of an outsider, there are more guys his own age etc.
He is not a gifted fielder and he is the epitome of an impatient hitter. Cheerleaders for Delmon on boards and blogs have largely quieted now that he has slumped. I truly believe Young for Gutierrez would be a good trade for both teams.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 7, 2010 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions
If the Twins trade a corner OF
I would prefer Kubel to be traded. I think his defense is that bad that even a year like this year only makes him an average player. (actually below average because his His defensive problems really aren’ t laziness or indifference, he is just not good at it.
Lets compare Kubel to Young side-by-side this year:
Kubel Young Advantage
HR 19 16 Kubel
Runs 60 67 Young
RBI 84 97 Young
SB 0 4 Young
BB% 10.2% 4.0% Kubel
K% 22.3% 13.5% Young
BA .259 .303 Young
OBP .337 .334 Kubel
SLG .444 .488 Young
UZR/150 -22.5 -12.8 Young
Age 28 24(25) Young
People point to Young’s low walk rate and say thats unacceptable. The thing is, both batters are getting on base the same percentage of the time. The difference is Young gets on base wit more hits and Kubel with walks which also helps explain the difference in RBI. Add to this the fact that Kubel is striking out nearly 9% more than Young (NINE percent!! over double the difference in walk rate) and it is clear that patient or not Delmon is a much better batter. Delmon is also a RH power bat which is more in demand in the twins clubhouse than Kubel’s LH powerbat due to some other guys you may have heard of.
I know many people will throw a fit when UZR is used as an evidence against a point they believe but I’ll throw it out there anyway. So far in 2010 Young has a UZR of -12.8. Now I know that doesnt look very good but when compared with Kubel’s -22.5 its a little easier to swallow. Normal fielding statistics also support Young but by a narrower margain. They have had the same number of errors (4) and Delmon has a higher fielding percentage, .982 to .976. With a glove on Delmon is still the better player.
As often stated in Young’s defense he is still developing. Maybe you are familiar with the guy playing 3B or us, Valencia? He is only one year five days younger than Young. If Delmon was most players, this would be his second year. Also, how old are most power hitters when they start to produce the long ball? Twenty-six to twenty-seven. People say he has had four years playing time. Playing time doesnt affect physical maturity. By most guesses Young’s salary for next year will be =/< the salary for Kubel. For the front office Delmon is still the better player.
Looking at the stats (courtesy of fangraphs) it is clear that Young is the better overall player; better bat, at least equal defense, and less liability on the basepaths. If we were to trade for Franklin and Cuddles comes back the OF should be Cuddy-Franklin-Span. Delmon still has a spot in the DH because he is clearly the better batter. There is no reason to trade Young. He is already better, has more upside, and is cheaper than Kubel.
I’m sure some prick will come along and point out a typo or mistake that has little to no bearing on the argument to distract for the obvious truth here. To this person I say “go to hell.”
For the reasons stated by Codypc21
I think that Delmon has more value in a trade. I would expect that the Twins are a contender again next year and waiting for Delmon to develop into something more than he already is seems to be a fool’s errand for a contender.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 8, 2010 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions
So you would trade someone because he is good?
If you were running this team the roster would be the cast from Benchwarmers. Its arguable that he has our third best bat (behind Mauer and Morneau). What you are saying is it would rather keep a player that is performing poorly with less upside than to keep a player that is already doing well and has a high upside?
“Jim Souhan, is that you?”
You trade him because he's overvalued by other teams
In other words, you can get more for him because his conventional numbers (AVE, RBI) look so good, even though his deeper numbers are mediocre at best.
I don’t know if Seattle will make this trade. But if they would, it represents an upgrade to this team. That’s the bottom line—getting a better player than Delmon in a straight-up trade upgrades the team. Seattle has struggled mightily offensively this year, so they might want to trade defense for offense. If they offered, it would also make sense for the Twins to trade offense for defense, particularly with a fly-ball staff in Target Field.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Seattle has no place for him
Any sane team would play Delmon in RF and Seattle already has a pretty well known RF.
Couldn't Ichiro tentatively play in CF? Or is he no good enough defensively outside of his rocket arm for that?
by twinscrazy_german on Sep 9, 2010 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Ichiro turns 37 next year
I don’t think he moves back to CF again.
i don't think the rest of the league overvalues DY
for example, the sbnation power rankings describes DY’s season as a “slight bump.”
the twins gameplan seems to be for the offense to score early so the starters can pump the zone, and then invest in bullpen guns to protect leads. so DY’s role is to be a pure rbi guy esp. early in the game, and he excels at that. frisco, pavano, duensing, blackburn have good enough stuff that DY’s defense is not that much of a liability, i think. its only when baker pitches that i would ever trade for a better glove.
and you can put it on the boaaaaaard YES, HELL YES
I disagree with the last part.
Blackbeard, duenslinger, baked, slowey and pavestache are all pretty much contact pitchers making our defense all the more important.
duensing, frisco, blackie, and pav are all ground ball pitchers (in that order)
all above 45% gb rate. baker and slowey are 34.3% and 31.9%.
you just wouldn’t get a better return on a defensive LF-er when those 4 pitch.
and you can put it on the boaaaaaard YES, HELL YES
ERA+ in that same order
206, 128, 71, 118, 90, 95
If it weren’t for Blackburn those would be in the same order.
so the staff is generally outperforming, even after adjusting for pitcher friendly target field
with mediocre corner outfielders.
and you can put it on the boaaaaaard YES, HELL YES
Don't forget that ERA+'s might drop a bit once they figure out what TF's park factor is
bb-ref is currently using 100 for TF because there was no data for it before this year.
From what I’ve seen the PF for runs doesn’t look too extreme. Likely 97 or 98. That’ll drop everyone’s ERA+ a few points and raise everyone’s OPS+ a few points.
TF is dead last in HR allowed
a lot of would-be homers are bangers of the 23’ wall spanning the right half of the outfield, surely. but TF scores a .989 in runs according to espn, which i guess is synonymous with its park factor.
and you can put it on the boaaaaaard YES, HELL YES
The number they report has to be adjusted for road games
Teams play half their games on the road and there is also a second-order correction because a team doesn’t play any road games in their home park.
Averaging their number with “1.0” is a good estimate, though that number they have for Coors is crazy. I don’t know what is up with that. I don’t think ESPN knows what they are doing for this stat.
I got my number from here:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/eqa2010.shtml#tmtot
… though I suspect bb-ref will get its number from somewhere else.
So you believe that other teams only focus on conventional stats?
How can you possibly know other teams overvalue him? I see very little talk about him in any media and none of it is preaching “OMG! DY is the greatest!” I do not understand how you can feel qualified to make that statement at all.
I also cannot comprehend why some people are so oblivious to the importance of RBI. It is not some magical thing that is unexplainable, nor is it only attributable to having a good supporting cast. If Gutierrez were to trade places with Delmon, based on this year’s statistics he would not produce as many RBI. Why? He strikes out 10% (TEN fucking PERCENT) more than Delmon and walks twice is much. Now you say “but we love walks!” while wearing your I <3 walks t-shirt. Walks do not bring in runners from second, hits do that. Delmon instead of trying to work a walk (and being stranded by the offensively inept Drew Butera and LNP that bat behind him) goes out there and swings at the best pitch which the vast majority of the time is the first one.
Really, how many more games would we win if Delmon, batting 7th, increased his walk ratio to say 15%. Probably none. Those walks would come at the cost of hits which are scoring runs. WAR doesnt take this kind of thing into account. Sure if he is batting 3rd or 4th more walks could be beneficial but he doesn’t very often. He is approach is perfect for a #7 batter.
Also if you believe that WAR is the end all of baseball analysis take a look at the other side of the OF. Cuddles is a -7.2 career UZR/150 in right and this year is only batting .273/.338/.758 while posting the best strikeout percentage of his career, 15% (reminder DY=.302/.332/.817 and remember hits>>walks). The batting rating (war?rar?) for cuddles this year is 5.2 to Delmon’s 12.5. I know what you are thinking now, “but cuddles can play RF and 3B and 1B that is too valuable.” It’s not that difficult to find a guy that can play a position at -7.2 uzr and 2 other positions at -10uzr while putting up a .338 obp, especially for his cost.
Trading Delmon would just be stupid. He is our best option as the 3rd outfielder if we bring in a new one; he is our best option at DH other than Thome. He is all upside right now. His batting and fielding value have gone up every year as a Twin and there is no reason to believe it will not continue. If we were to trade him it should be someone more than one win above him. He has improved 2.6 WAR over last and there is nothing to show he cannot improve 1 WAR next year. By all accounts he has become a hard worker, open to coaching, and eager to improve himself.
Why would the walks come at the expense of his hits?
Why couldn’t the walks come at the expense of his outs? Say he doesn’t ground outside sliders to the second baseman any more and walks instead. What would be wrong with that? Remember walks>>outs.
I don’t think anyone is saying to dump Delmon necessarily. The problem is the Twins have three right fielders who don’t catch very well and they really do need to trade one and get a LF who can catch the ball. Delmon is the most likely to bring a decent return. He might be the only one they can deal without creating a bigger problem.
PS – be skeptical of UZR in Target Field (and Metrodome) in RF. Big walls that are close in tend to make UZR barf.
They've tried to fix that
PS – be skeptical of UZR in Target Field (and Metrodome) in RF. Big walls that are close in tend to make UZR barf.
They did add some sort of “big wall” adjustment to UZR right around the beginning of the season that boosted the ratings for Cuddyer, Jason Bay, and a few others. I’m not positive how much better it is (besides the usual objections to advanced defensive stats in general), but they do account for that now.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
The problem is the Twins have three right fielders who don’t catch very well and they really do need to trade one and get a LF who can catch the ball.
Yes, I am with you here.
Delmon is the most likely to bring a decent return. He might be the only one they can deal without creating a bigger problem.
This is where you start to talk in clicks and whistles. First, you argue we should trade Delmon because he is the most likely to bring a decent return. This is like saying since we have 6 serviceable starting pitchers we should trade Liriano because we can get the most for him. Wtf? If we find a way to dump Kubel and Cuddyer’s salaries (16ish million?) couldn’t we outright buy a superstar LF? Out of our three RF’s Delmon is the cheapest, best, and most upside; would you normally dump a young player just because he is having a good year? Should we trade Liriano now that he is
doing well? How about Valencia?
Also is WAR not calculated using UZR? If uzr is unadmissable as evidence then WAR becomes nearly worthless as well.
People talk about trading Young to Seattle because they need offensive help. We could send them anyone but Butera and Repko and it would improve their offense. Nick-effing-Punto would be a significant upgrade for Seattle.
Also #7 Delmon drawing a walk is not much better than an out, especially w/risp.
What are our 8 and 9 batters hitting this year? .400-.450 combined? Look at Cuddles runs compared to Delmon’s. They have pretty much the same OBP (.338DY, .332MC) but Cuddyer has 15 more runs. (would really like to see the split for this comparing batting 7+ to 6-.) Obviously Cuddles is scoring more because he has guys like Thome and Young to drive him in where as Young has Repko, Butera,LNP,Tolbear and sometimes even slumpingspan. If Cuddles draws a walk there is a decent chance he will score, if Young draws a walk it is followed by a strikeout or two and a soft grounder.
The case against Delmon drawing a walk is even stronger when there are risp. Do you want a 30.2% chance of scoring a run or a 20% chance?
I am would bet when he is batting 7th he is told to just go out there and get hits and forget about drawing a walk.
Sorry
Walks are always better than outs. Walks move runners over. Walks turn the lineup over. Walks are also way better than GIDP. Sometimes that runner in scoring position moves from 2B to 3B when the batter draws a walk. Look at the scoring charts, it’s almost always better to draw a walk than make an out. Only in rare 1-run situations is it better to avoid a walk.
The Liriano analogy falls apart for several reasons. Liriano is not simply an average pitcher. Liriano is going to be underpaid until he’s a free agent. Blackburn is a better analogy than Delmon and yes, they probably should have traded Blackburn last offseason.
All I’m really trying to say is sell high, buy low. They would be selling low on Cuddyer if they trade him and selling high on Delmon. Ideally someone would give something useful in return for Cuddyer but I can’t see anyone taking him without the Twins having to eat salary.
It is very likely that trading delmon now is still selling low
because if is very possible that he continues to improve for the next couple years. This is selling low.
The problem is arbitration
The value of Delmon’s production minus the amount he’s getting paid is only going to shrink going forward. This is high value if you want to get more than you’re paying for. He probably will improve but his arbitration award is going up faster.
No
Arn Tellem isn’t going to settle for less than he would get in arbitration awards.
Ok.
What do you see as likely for arb. this year and if he has say a 2.5war season next year? What kind of multi year contract do you think he would take?
Twins Geek
Guesstimated salaries for next year and assinged Delmon $6 M.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 10, 2010 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
My guess was $5m, when was this done?
Because an estimate from the start of the year would be very different than when he was batting .330 which would also be different than now. What are Kubes and Cuddyer scheduled to make next year? I seem to recall some where around 5.5 and 11.5 respectively. If so does this seem like a lot to anyone else? I <3 cuddles but thats a lot of money; a good chunk of a cliff lee.
Geek's fanpost was yesterday
I agree that Cuddyer’s money is alot for what he’s produced this year. However, if he hits like ’06 or ’09, it is fair or better than that. BTW, Gutierrez is signed for 4, 5.5 and 7 million the next three years.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 10, 2010 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions
So if Delmon is traded for Gutierrez,
the OF would look like Cuddles, Goot, Span and Thome at DH with Kubes on the bench. If they would take Kubes for Goot would you rather do that (not asking if they would)? My logic here is that it would be better to have both a RH and LH option at DH.
Thome is a free agent
And Thome can’t even DH every day. I’m sure they would rest the righthanders vs. righties often. We also can’t be sure of Morneau. Actually, if Morneau doesn’t recover the Twins don’t have much wiggle room at all.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 10, 2010 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions
No, but some do
A .300 hitter with 100 RBI is worth a lot, regardless of defense.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Trading while the value is high
One positive is that if the Twins trade Delmon now they are trading high, had he been traded last off season it would have been a horrible sell low deal. As far as trading him for Gutierrez, that’s a buy low deal as he’s been worse at the plate this year than last but still amazing defensively. It makes sense to deal Delmon now to upgrade the defense and we don’t lose a ton at the plate as we have a lot of very good hitters without Delmon.
All this said, I was one who was all for trading Span two years ago after his first good season thinking it was a mirage. Even with his down year this year I like Span a lot and think this is more the outlier season and he’ll be better again next year. I think it would have been a mistake to trade him at his high value even though he’s dropped off a lot this year. Last year I thought we should trade Delmon and keep Gomez that would have been stupid as right now Delmon’s value has increased significantly while Gomez has shown once again he’s all glove no bat.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Who would want Delmon?
Phillies – Ibanez is getting old and Werth is a free agent
Mets – They played Jeff Francouer this year.
Astros – Carlos Lee sucks
Pirates – Garrett Jones turned back into a pumpkin
Nationals – Need hitters
Royals – hurting for talent
Feel free to propose others. Just looking through the rosters I think Cuddyer for Beltran would be a fun challenge trade.
He's an enigma wrpped inside a riddle!
Top five in clutch hitting in all of baseball…bottom five in plate discipline. He is an awful fielder but the Twins have such limitations in the power department that I would hope if he is traded, we could get some power and RBI out of the trade as well.
"I don't think it's nice, you laughin'. See, my mule don't like people laughing. He gets the crazy idea you're laughing at him. Now if you apologize, like I know you're going to, I might convince him that you really didn't mean it . . ."
by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on Sep 8, 2010 5:35 AM EDT reply actions
Seattle's offense
30th across the board in runs, batting average, home runs and RBI. I presume OBP and Slugging, too. They are in a position where they need to add offense.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 8, 2010 6:36 AM EDT reply actions
I didn't just pick Gutierrez out of a hat
Gutierrez is still in his 20s (would be 28 next year) and last year, he was almost universally declared the best defensive CF in the AL, by all but the Gold Glove folks. He is a RH hitter who has decent power (29 homers in the last two years in as tough a home run home park as Target Field). He plays for the worst offensive team in the Majors, a team that has to find ways to get better offensively and which must rebuild, and so would take on a young player (Delmon would be 25 most of next year) to hit in the middle of their order. The contracts would seem to match up. Gutierrez could hit seventh or eighth for the Twins next year, play great defense and hit around his career average and be a real asset to a team looking to win the World Series.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 8, 2010 11:12 PM EDT reply actions
I think it would be interesting to know what the Mariner fans would think of such a trade
Unfortunately you can’t post fanposts until a day after you sign up at lookout landing, so making a post there won’t be till tomorrow. Unless someone else wants to do it.
by twinscrazy_german on Sep 9, 2010 8:33 AM EDT reply actions
They don't like rosterbation at LL
I can see why, too, but I’m not sure they will be the most useful
Hmmm
Maybe a Kubel for DeJesus trade?
DeJesus could drastically improve our defense and not lose too much on the hitting end. He’ll have less power than either Delmon or Cuddyer but better OBP for a similar OPS. He can at least handle all 3 outfield positions which lessens the need for a defensive replacement type like Repko. He’s signed for one year and Kubel is signed for one year. If Revere and or Benson look ready for the bigs after one more year then you let him walk in 2012.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
What's in it for Kansas City?
KC is going to be looking for prospects. I do like DeJesus. There’s 3 guys on the Royals that would improve the Twins – DeJesus, Greinke and Soria.
DeJesus might be bought out
He has a $6mil option. I guess I would be surprised if the Royals pulled the trigger on that, considering his injury history. Maybe I’m wrong.
I posted above that trading Delmon for some young middle infield talent and then signing DeJesus would be a reasonable series of moves. This may not be the best of moves, but depending on the return for Young, it could be very appealing.
by PinkiePinkerton on Sep 10, 2010 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Meh
I really don’t think the Twins want or need a power limited LH hitting OF. DeJesus has never hit more the 13 homers and trading Young for him would tilt the OF-1B-DH position even more to the left. He’s also suffered a lot of injuries lately and he is gong to be 31 this winter.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 10, 2010 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Improve the defense by swapping an outfielder
That was the conclusion of my original post. I mentioned Delmon for Gutierrez. Here IMHO are some considerations in swapping outfielders. Salary: I don’t think the Twins can take on much, if any, salary. The player they acquire would have to make no more than the player they trade (Span:$1M, Young: Arb—thought to be about $6M, Kubel: Option—$5.25M). Handedness: The Twins lean left. They really couldn’t afford to acquire a LH hitter for Young. Lefties for either Kubel or Span would keep the status quo and a rightie would help to balance the sides. Position: I advocate adding a defensive ace in center and displacing a poor-fielding option on a corner and replacing the corner outfielder with Span, who was exceptional as a corner OF the last two years. Power and speed: The Twins are in the bottom third in AL homers (thanks Target Field) and also stolen bases. It would be nice to acquire a player who hits as many or more homers as the player traded and who might also exhibit base-stealing speed.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 10, 2010 6:25 PM EDT reply actions
Ok so after next year it goes up significantly.
When you are talking about saving money in a trade shouldn’t you consider the average for the contract?
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