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Saturday Morning Breakfast & Baseball: Jim Thome, Carl Pavano and Thoughts on Change

Thome, engrossed in watching Jamie Oliver's expose on mashed potatoes.

Let's talk about baseball before this afternoon turns into a NFL feeding frenzy.

  • Jim Thome spoke highly of the Twins organization yesterday, and Ken Rosenthal reports more of the same.  While the Rangers were a great team and he appreciated the opportunity to talk with Nolan Ryan, ultimately he felt he had a special bond with the Twins players, management, organization, fans and, not so strangely for a guy like Thome, with his opponents in the AL Central.  Family was also an important factor in the decision.
  • Another reason why Thome chose the Twins instead of the Rangers: he wasn't sure how he'd look in those fancy cowboy hats.
  • Another one of 2010's big performance veterans, Carl Pavano, is apparently taking the weekend to mull over the decisions he has to make (likely with a strophome cup filled with three-dale old coffee).  We expect an announcement early this coming week, on Monday or Tuesday.  His return will make the competition for the rotation an interesting one in spring training, although Brian Duensing's experience in the bullpen probably means he'd be the odd man out of the rotation if all things are equal.  At any rate, it does mean the bullpen will be slightly more stable with one of those rotation arms being shifted into relief.
  • Starting Rotation:  Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Carl Pavano, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn have, essentially, been the bulk of Minnesota's rotation since the last two months of the 2009 season.  Throw in Brian Duensing's starts, and those six guys have kept the rotation's turnover at a shockingly low level over the last two seasons.  There isn't a lot of change here, although with Kyle Gibson, Alex Wimmers, David Bromberg and others on the horizon, we're likely to see bigger changes once we get past 2011.
  • Bullpen:  Joe Nathan, Matt Capps and Jose Mijares will be a part of the relief corps for certain, along with Scott Diamond and the starter who doesn't make the rotation.  Jim Hoey and Pat Neshek will likely have to lose their jobs to miss out on the bullpen on opening day, but that's your seven right there.  Barring something unforeseen, it's likely that Kyle Waldrop, Alex Burnett, Anthony Slama, Rob Delaney, Jeff Manship, Anthony Swarzak, Chuck James and Eric Hacker will all start their seasons in Rochester.  The biggest changes in the bullpen for 2011 aren't necessarily the additions of Diamond and Hoey, but the return of Nathan and Neshek.
  • Catchers:  Also the same as 2010, just without the depth.  Beyond Joe Mauer and Drew Butera there isn't a good Major League option available.
  • Infield:  While Justin Morneau and Danny Valencia will still anchor the corners, the Twins are handing a starting job to Alexi Casilla and the Japanese star Tsuyoshi Nishioka.  The infield, along with the bullpen, is where the biggest changes are being made this season.  Even when you extend your look to the bench, which last year boasted Casilla and Nick Punto in large part, this year it's Matt Tolbert who will be manning the utility role.  Massive changes here.
  • Outfield:  The exact same core from 2010 returns.
  • Bench makeup:  There was more depth last year, in terms of players you knew you could rely on for certain things.  This season, although the bench of Butera, Repko, Tolbert and Thome boasts a lot of familiar names, once you get past them we're faced with quite a few more question marks.  Trevour Plouffe, Luke Hughes, Steve Singleton, Ben Revere--all guys with varying levels of talent and expectations, with one thing in common:  virtually no Major League experience with a high level of uncertainty in how they could compete if forced into large chunks of playing time.  Don't get me wrong, minor league depth to supplement the bench isn't an issue we should be spending a lot of time dwelling on, particularly with all of the experienced minor leaguers the Twins have brought in this winter, but last year was something of a luxury with the depth at catcher and infield.

Enjoy your morning!

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I'm down on Neshek

he might “be given” the spot out of Spring Training, but I don’t think he makes it past May. From what I saw, he’s got no “fastball”

by b1 on Jan 15, 2011 8:33 AM EST reply actions  

This is Neshek's second season back from surgery.

Usually the 2nd season is better than the 1st. I see him re-gaining a few MPH.

by benhertz on Jan 15, 2011 5:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I think he'll need to earn the spot

And I’m hopeful but not optimistic. I don’t think he’ll ever get his fastball back. But he can still be effective if he gets his control back. When he was on his game, he hit the corners. Last year, he used the middle of the plate with an 84 MPH fastball. That won’t get it done no matter how funky his delivery.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 15, 2011 5:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Control is everything

He can sit between 85 and 90 if he hits the corners, his delivery makes him look quick to the plate. If he doesn’t hit the corners he has nothing.

by DJL44 on Jan 15, 2011 10:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Blackburn for Joba?

Anyone with me on this one?

by AM. on Jan 15, 2011 8:58 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

If the Yankees would do that, hell yeah.

But I’m sure they’d hang up on that one.

by Jesse on Jan 15, 2011 9:04 AM EST up reply actions  

the Yankees handled him so poorly

I don’t know if he can be fixed. Maybe a new start would do it and I think he does have a greater upside than Blackie.

by caluofmn on Jan 16, 2011 2:59 PM EST up reply actions  

"for a viable starter"

Thats the recent report. I wouldn’t trade Slowey for Joba, but I would trade Blackburn.

His value has taken a big hit, and the Yankees are looking at starting Mitre and Nova this year.

What about Duensing for Joba?

by AM. on Jan 15, 2011 10:41 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I'd ABSOLUTELY do Duensing for Joba....

and if push came to shove, I’d actually do Slowey for Joba too. And I’m one of the biggest Slowey fans there is. I just still believe in Joba.

Plus, I think Joba gives flexibility. He could be a dynamite reliever in a new situation or maybe even a starter still. And he gives us what we lack; power pitching. Slowey/Duensing/Blackburn are all going to be replaced in the rotation within the next year or two anyway probably (Gibson/Wimmers).

by DJSkillz on Jan 15, 2011 12:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Joba

Hasn’t been the same since he had shoulder problems… there is something wrong that the Yankees aren’t saying, and that’s why they want to trade him

Cowboys fan since 1978.. I was 3 years old

by Mullin on Jan 15, 2011 1:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Agree

I’d rank Joba and Slowey about equal, and would begrudgingly do that trade. Duensing I would be fine trading…and might have the most trade value….and Blackburn I’d be happy to trade, but don’t think it would get it done.

Trading Slowey for Joba might actually be a positive, because we’d be solving a potential problem in terms of too many SPs for not enough spots (which I don’t really view as an
issue) and it would mean getting actual value back for Slowey—something I’m afraid of NOT getting.

by AM. on Jan 16, 2011 8:23 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

We broadcast there

But there are also a lot of Rockies fans out there.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 15, 2011 5:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Needs to be updated though

MT is now Mariners country because Rob Johnson is from there.

I’m not sure what the headless torso in Mexico is about.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"Gardy MOY. Feel great disturbance in Force. As if millions of Internet cranks cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced." -BatGirl

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jan 15, 2011 7:15 PM EST up reply actions  

kind of the chicken or the egg...

are most nebraskans royals fans because they have a team in omaha? or do they have a team in omaha because most nebraskans are royals fans?

i think it’s the latter.

by DJSkillz on Jan 16, 2011 2:39 AM EST up reply actions  

Iowa Cubs as well

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 16, 2011 11:18 AM EST up reply actions  

Mmmmm...

Chicken Omelets Royale…
Nomnomnom…

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"Gardy MOY. Feel great disturbance in Force. As if millions of Internet cranks cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced." -BatGirl

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jan 16, 2011 11:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Royale With Cheese

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 17, 2011 10:36 AM EST up reply actions  

Rene Rivera

He isn’t much worse than Butera

by DJL44 on Jan 15, 2011 9:49 AM EST reply actions  

So far, if we assume Pavano is back,

The outlook going into the year isn’t that different from what it was going into 2010.

Likely upgrade
3rd. Punto—————→ Valencia
Setup #1. Guerrier——>Capps

Likely downgrade
SS. Hardy—————→ Casilla
Setup #2. Crain—→ ? ? ? (Neshek maybe)

About the same
Closer. Rauch———>Nathan (upgrade if Nathan 100%)
2nd. Hudson————>Nishioka
Bench. Casilla———>Tolbert
Bench. Harris———→Repko

by Luke in MN on Jan 15, 2011 10:28 AM EST reply actions  

Compared to the beginning of last year...

You can also kind of count Thome as an upgrade, just because I think they’ll give him a higher percentage of the starts early this year – my hope is that he’ll start against basically every righthanded pitcher.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jan 15, 2011 10:50 AM EST up reply actions  

Catchers

Do the Twins even have a third catcher on the 40-man roster? I don’t think you need three of them on the 25-man, but I certainly think a third catcher on the 40-man is necessary.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jan 15, 2011 10:48 AM EST reply actions  

Sweet Drew's fires scared all the rest of them away

Morales wasn’t traded to the Rockies…. he fled the state!

(in other words, no, we do not have a third catcher on the 40-man roster)

This was a triumph
I'm making a note here - huge success

by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Jan 15, 2011 2:36 PM EST up reply actions  

And there are 39 players on the 40 man roster!

Pavano would be number 40.

I’m assuming the Twins’ off-season transactions won’t be finished after Pavano signs.

by benhertz on Jan 15, 2011 5:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Thome

Such a class act. I’m really glad he’s back. I think he makes us better in a lot of ways. “Intangibles” and “being a great guy” might not win games, but a HR hunt sells tickets and I imagine there is some kind of tangible effect to his mentoring (or else what’s the point of a hitting coach?)

by dctwin on Jan 15, 2011 11:11 AM EST reply actions  

Mauer and Thome talking hitting

Priceless

Cowboys fan since 1978.. I was 3 years old

by Mullin on Jan 15, 2011 1:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Duensing

Didn’t Gardenhire say near the end of the season that Duensing was in the rotation for good now?

by ben2 on Jan 16, 2011 5:54 PM EST reply actions  

Am I the only person that reads, "Outfield: The exact same core from 2010 returns." and cringes?

Three below average defensive outfielders in a ball park that plays big and a pitching staff that pitches to contact. This scares the crap out of me.

by cmb0252 on Jan 16, 2011 6:59 PM EST reply actions  

Are you ever NOT cringing/angry/depressed about the Twins?

 We’ll go to war with what we have, cmbo. We’ll see who brings the waitress home in October.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"Gardy MOY. Feel great disturbance in Force. As if millions of Internet cranks cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced." -BatGirl

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jan 16, 2011 11:45 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I'm a pretty happy person actually and most of my posts I try to use humor

Sorry that I don’t want to sit around and talk about fluff. I know it is just sooooo hilarious to talk about Thome taters and how many funny Wang comments we can make but it gets old.

I have supported the Twins FO with the Thome/Nishi signing and have been very supportive of our farm system. I figured a career – 14 dWAR, -5.8 dWAR last year, outfield is a problem worth talking about. Span put up our best outfield dWAR last year at a massive -1.7!!!

But your right, lets talk about “who brings the waitress home in October.” Sounds productive.

by cmb0252 on Jan 17, 2011 12:06 AM EST up reply actions  

Oh fer sure!

Yeah cringing is definitely more productive! I’ll bet Bill Smith and the Pohlads can’t wait to read what some anonymous jackass dressed up like a choo-choo train thinks about Denard Span’s dWAR! It will solve all their problems!

Maybe I should try that at work sometime, “Oh I’m not talking about taters or Wangs on the internets sir, I’m talking about cringing and being scared crapless over the Twins outfield. I’m being productive! Really!”

NEWS FLASH!★ Nothing on here is productive. It’s all fluff, from the rosterbation posts to the Pavstache stories, none of it is productive. If you’re going to get upset everytime someone disagrees with you here, you will get very frustrated very quickly.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"Gardy MOY. Feel great disturbance in Force. As if millions of Internet cranks cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced." -BatGirl

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jan 17, 2011 8:27 AM EST up reply actions  

so...

you’re saying that our OF defense is NOT a concern to you?

really?

by DJSkillz on Jan 17, 2011 11:24 AM EST up reply actions  

If you really think that, this site is just a big time waster

Um, OK, maybe it is. But there’s room for every view on the seriousness of our discussions. I for one crave a good serious baseball discussion. Call it rosterbation if you like, but it is more serious to me. I don’t always agree with cmb0252—OK, I rarely agree with him—but I appreciate his passion and perspective.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 17, 2011 1:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Rarely agree is an understatement but your are right

We argue all the time but I don’t hold any grudge again you. If anything we, in a weird way complement each other. Its nice, and important, to have someone on the other side of an argument. It keeps both of you honest and the total amout of knowledge gained is normally more signifcation then talking with someone of the same ideology.

by cmb0252 on Jan 17, 2011 1:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I never said there shouldn't be serious discussions here

That’s something cmbo tried to put on me, but if anybody thinks it’s “productive” and not entertainment is deluding themselves.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"Gardy MOY. Feel great disturbance in Force. As if millions of Internet cranks cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced." -BatGirl

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jan 17, 2011 10:21 PM EST up reply actions  

HEY NOW!

You can make fun of me as much as you want but leave the percy the train costume out of it. You know how long it took to paint a 3-4 year old’s Thomas the train costume to look like Percy? Like…two hours.

If I wrote posts for Bill Smith and/or the Pohlads not only would I be wasting my time, but I would be an idiot. I write posts on here to share my pasion of the Twins with other fans. Like I don’t know…. pretty much everyone else on this site.

You can have your Taters and Wang, which when put together sounds like a Rex Ryanesk fetish, and I will keep my debates.

by cmb0252 on Jan 17, 2011 1:36 PM EST up reply actions  

It's All About Humor

I come hre for entertainment value only. I don’t think for one second that my opinion matters to anyone here, much less Bill Smith and Co. I see no point in comments that take any of this too seriously. I love the Twins, have rooted for them since I was 7 (which was a LONG time ago, think pre-Carew), and I just like rooting for a good team. They’ve given me 2 WS titles in my lifetime, and for that I am grateful.

And that’s all I have to say about that.

In conclusion…. let’s mash some taters, visit Embers and check out the waitresses, and for pete’s sake, SIGN WANG!!!!!!!!!!!

I feel an obligtaion to help fill the void in fischean's life lft by that no good montanasheeplover
Knock that cancer out of the park, Harmon!!!!

by carlpavanosmoustache on Jan 17, 2011 2:46 AM EST reply actions  

Oh, By The Way

Does anyone remember seeing Mickey Hatcher patrolling CF in the dome?

I feel an obligtaion to help fill the void in fischean's life lft by that no good montanasheeplover
Knock that cancer out of the park, Harmon!!!!

by carlpavanosmoustache on Jan 17, 2011 2:48 AM EST up reply actions  

One of my favorite baseball cards

Is of Mickey using a glove the size of a manhole cover. Quite the jokester.

by z-squad on Jan 17, 2011 10:07 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Perkins

Perkins is missing from your bullpen options, Bill Smith brings him up in every interview though as a likely piece

by groundout on Jan 17, 2011 2:54 PM EST reply actions  

Just speaking for myself...

but I think it’s posturing.

I bet he’ll be traded for something like an A-ball player in ST.

by DJSkillz on Jan 17, 2011 3:29 PM EST up reply actions  

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