The Growing Market for Michael Cuddyer

by Bobomojo on Oct 19, 2011 9:25 AM EDT in Speculation

"It's still early, but Michael Cuddyer clearly being targeted by a number of teams, and the Red Sox will likely be among those."

-ESPN's Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) on Twitter last night

As the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers prepare for Game 1 of the 2011 World Series, executives from the other 28 teams only have one thing on their minds: preparing for 2012.

For the Twins, preparing for 2012 means many things: plugging the gaping hole at shortstop, adding a pitcher or six, making contingency plans at first and behind the plate, and, of course, figuring out how to handle the expiring contracts of Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel.

It's clear the Twins want to keep Michael Cuddyer, who has now spent 11 seasons with the big club after being drafted by the Twins in 1997. Cuddyer was the Twins most productive hitter in 2011 and has always been an outstanding and beloved member of the organization. He also has been the club's primary insurance policy for Justin Morneau for two straight seasons.

In August, the Twins reportedly made a two-year, $16 million offer to Cuddyer. Not surprisingly, the offer fell flat. The Twins' offer would have required Cuddyer to take a 24% pay cut from this past season while only guaranteeing him a paycheck for two more seasons. If the Twins were to offer Cuddyer arbitration this off-season (he projects as a type A free agent) he'd likely get a pay raise from the $10.5 million he earned in 2011.

So now Cuddyer will hit free agency. And it appears he will not be hurting for suitors. Teams like the Rockies, Cubs, Cardinals, and Giants are each likely to be in on the Cuddyer sweepstakes, and Olney's tweet confirms the Red Sox (and their $160+ million payroll) are interested. For those keeping score at home, that means the teams with the 3^rd, 6^th, 8^th, 9^th, 12^th and 14^th highest payrolls in 2011 are each expected to at least kick the tires on Michael this off-season. That translates into a lot of money chasing a player the Twins are ill-equipped to lose.

Most experts have predicted Cuddyer will fetch a deal somewhere in the neighborhood of three years/$30 million, which would cover his age 34, 35, and 36 seasons. If a bidding war develops, it's very possible that some team could step forward with an offer that includes a fourth year, leaving the winning team responsible for Cuddyer's paycheck until he's 37.

What does this all mean for the Twins? Well, the presence of mega-payroll team like the Red Sox in negotiations will almost certainly drive up the cost of retaining Cuddyer. Paying Cuddyer $10 million a year until he's 36 is not exactly appealing, and the prospect of having to add a fourth year to the deal should give any possible suitor considerable pause.

But if the Twins feel the pricetag on Cuddyer is too high, they will have an answer a very important question: if not Cuddyer, then who? Without Cuddyer, the best right-handed hitter on the Twins would be...Danny Valencia? And if the Twins lose both Cuddyer and Kubel, their starting outfield would be Revere, Span and ... Tosoni? Benson? Plouffe? The Twins scored fewer than all but one team in the AL least season, and losing last season's best hitter to free agency would only deepen the hole the team is trying to crawl out of.

One final note: We've discussed this several times on the site, but it's worth adding to this discussion. Over the past three seasons, Michael Cuddyer has demonstrated some pretty dramatic splits:

	2009	2010	2011
vs LHP	1.013	0.875	0.993
vs. RHP	0.812	0.700	0.728

To put this in perspective: between 2009 and 2011, Cuddyer's .958 OPS against left-handed pitchers was the 11^th highest among all major league hitters (in the same range as Jose Bautista, Justin Upton and Adrian Beltre). His .747 OPS against right-handed pitchers ranked 98^th (out of 147 "qualifying" hitters, ranking him around speedsters like Brett Gardner and Michael Bourn and infielders like Howie Kendrick, Marco Scutaro and Casey McGehee). During that span, Cuddyer has hit 31 homers in 573 plate appearances against southpaws, and just 35 homers in 1,336 plate appearances against right-handers. As Cuddyer declines with age, it's fair to wonder how long into his 30s teams will be able to justify giving an everyday role to a poor defensive corner outfielder who struggles to hit right-handed pitching.

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Comments

In a world where David DeJesus has never made more than $6MM/year...

…it never ceases to amaze me that anyone could possibly be interested in Cuddyer for any more than $8.5MM/year. Sure, Cuddyer is a better power bat, but you get better speed, defense, avg., & OBP with DeJesus, and only about 7 fewer extra base hits/162 games.

Then again, we also live in a world where Jason Werth is somehow guaranteed to earn over $20MM/year during his 35-38 year old seasons (with a National League club!!!), so what the hell do I know?

"...and we'll see ya tomorrow night!" - Jack Buck, Game 6, 1991 World Series

by WindyCityTwinsFan on Oct 19, 2011 10:30 AM EDT reply actions

Agreed

I’m firmly on board the David DeJesus bandwagon for 2012. I’d love to see him patrolling right field for the Twins. Our outfield defense would be off the charts, and he’d add a solid OBP to the mix as well.

by Steve Adams on Oct 19, 2011 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I second this as well, DeJesus is a great buy low candidate that will either FLOP or PERFORM well.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 19, 2011 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Also agree, semi- agree

But Cuddyer runs out every single ground-ball out…. and he’s pretty much the only Twin left from that era eariler in the 2000’s that did that.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 19, 2011 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Problems with DeJesus

1) He’s a lefty in a left overloaded lineup His splits vs. lefthanders are not pretty.. 2) His best defensive position is left field. A defensive OF of Revere, Span, DeJesus would go get the ball, but they would have two average, at best, throwing arms and one terrible one. 3) DeJesus will be 32 next year, coming off both injuries and ineffectiveness.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Oct 22, 2011 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions

The Twins need to sign two OF/1B free agents

They need a 1B backup (starter?) for Morneau and another outfielder. Cuddyer is a great fit because he’s righthanded and can play both of those positions. There are other options that may be a better value.

If they can’t sign Cuddyer they should call up Derrek Lee. Wilson Betemit is another option. For outfielders I agree that DeJesus should be pursued, as well as attempting to re-sign Kubel. Ryan Ludwick, Cody Ross and Josh Willingham are other players that could produce as well as Cuddyer will next year.

FYI – LaVelle had a great article yesterday and mentioned Ramon Santiago or Alex Gonzalez for the SS spot.

by DJL44 on Oct 19, 2011 11:03 AM EDT reply actions

I was just looking through the FA list,

and Lee and Betemit both came up on my top 5 corner IF list. I’ll get to that later this week.

by Jesse on Oct 19, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions

I think they need to find a first baseman

I don’t trust Morneau to play a full season. They have lost Young and Thome and could lose both Cuddyer and Kubel. They need to find at least 2 OF/1B/DH players to avoid being forced to play Dinkelman and Tosoni.

by DJL44 on Oct 19, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions

I have a sneaking suspicion

That the backup first baseman is going to be Mauer.

by amiller92 on Oct 19, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I have a sneaking suspicion

that 2012 isn’t going to be materially better than 2011 :(

Then again, ask me in March and I’ll be picking the Twins to take the division again. So goes baseball life.

by ravenfly on Oct 19, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Twins first base depth chart

1. Justin Morneau
2. Chris Parmlee
3. Joe Mauer

That is if they fail to resign Cuddyer.

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by Jessy S on Oct 19, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe

But I don’t think Parmalee will start the year with the big club.

by amiller92 on Oct 19, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Then they need 2 catchers

And a DH

by DJL44 on Oct 19, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions

disagree on DH......Mauer/ Morneau/ Parmelee can hold that down just fine...

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 19, 2011 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Morneau cannot be counted on for anything

He hasn’t played a full season in 3 years. Parmelee should be in AAA, he’d be an awful major league DH at this point in his career.

by DJL44 on Oct 19, 2011 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions

But his .355/.443/.592 makes him the best hitter in the AL

/sarcasm

by spanspanspan on Oct 19, 2011 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe

But Butera’s probably fine as the third catcher, and DH is probably some combination of Morneau and Plouffe.

Really, it depends on what they pick up at catcher and short.

by amiller92 on Oct 19, 2011 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions

What about arbitration for Cuddy?

What do the Twins lose if they offer Cuddy arbitration (or did they have to decide on that before now)? Even if he gets a raise from his $10.5 million say $12 million, we get him for 1 more year at that price and then can make a decision next year and hopefully our young guns can take a step forward and we wouldn’t miss his bat as much in 2013. If he doesn’t accept, and signs with anothe team, we get a couple high draft picks. I know if he accepts he is overpaid for a year, but we are going to need some backup plans and maybe a deal gets done before he even goes to arbitration for less.

by Arols5 on Oct 19, 2011 11:32 AM EDT reply actions

I have to think the Twins

will offer him arbitration, just in case they can’t sign him to a multi-year deal. Either he’ll accept it and the Twins keep him for one final season, and he helps solidify things for 2012, or he declines. And I really don’t think the big market teams will blink about losing a low first-round pick for a couple seasons of Cuddy. It might reduce his market value, but he’d still be signed.

by Jesse on Oct 19, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Arbitration is an easy decision

by DJL44 on Oct 19, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions

One of the times it is easy for a Type A guy.

by Jesse on Oct 19, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions

I wouldn't really mind if they overpay him for one year

Keep a clubhouse veteran, make quite a few fans happy, and improve the depth chart for RF/1B/DH.

On the other hand, for $12 million they might be able to get two pretty good players to fill holes as well. I guess, to me it would depend on what the Twins think they’d be able to get for that amount of money.

by spanspanspan on Oct 19, 2011 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree

one for 12 is a lot but much better than 3 for 30. It would be before most of his decline, and the total cost would be contained.

but more to the point there’s no way he would accept arbitration anyway. His market value will never be this high. It would be a big gamble for him to postpone his payday for a year — his value might be cut in half if he has a bad year.

we should definitely offer arbitration and get the picks. If he accepts, fine, at least we didn’t go multi-year. But I think he’s gone.

does anyone think the Twins might offer 3/30? They did with Nathan, after all, and everyone thought they wouldn’t do that. They sometimes extend people they like, and who the fans like. Who knows.

by by jiminy on Oct 19, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Backseat GMing...

I’d offer arbitration. If he accepts, fine. If he doesn’t, let him go, take the draft picks, and spend that $12 million to pick up 2-3 other quality players.

If he declines and takes a career-Twin discount for 3/24, sign him back.

by spanspanspan on Oct 19, 2011 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions

No

But I’m still holding hope that Slowey will finish his science experiment in time for them to genetically combine Cuddyer and Kubel into a corner outfield who can hit lefties and righties and is therefore worth the big money multi-year deal it might take to sign them.

by amiller92 on Oct 19, 2011 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh please, not the Red Sox

They kept taking our first basemen back in the day… David McCarty, David Ortiz, Doug Mientkiewicz. They can’t have Cuddyer too. Especially because I no longer live in Boston and wouldn’t get to see him play often enough. And we all know these trades revolve around me.

by ColossusOfRhode on Oct 19, 2011 11:38 AM EDT reply actions

Maybe since you are living on the left coast,

The Giants will take both Cuddyer and Kubel.

by Jessy S on Oct 19, 2011 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Kevin Slowey, Jose Mijares and AAron Hicks for Shawn Marcum (Mil.)

also because Jays likely STRONGLY in run for Jose Reyes (Nestor Molina, Adieny Hechavarria, Chad Jenkins, Travis Snider could be names floated for Reyes) I say we take on Yunel Escobar for them, opting Rene Tosoni, Anthony Swarzak and a ptbl.

That solves Rotation, and SS, the only thing left IMO is Bullpen, and Catcher and that is fixed with Jose Molina and Michael Wuertz + brining back 1 of Kubuddyer and brining back Joe Nathan.

maybe 1 other move like the Japaneese Pitcher (not Yu Darvish the other one, Iwamura?) could be had as well.

Gives Rori Ishiokawa something to do besides Nishioka.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 19, 2011 5:34 PM EDT reply actions

Yunel Escobar will cost much more than what you offer

by Coolio12 on Oct 19, 2011 5:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Nestor Molina, Adieny Hechavarria, Chad Jenkins, Travis Snider could be names floated for Reyes)

Why would any names be “floated” for Reyes? Reyes is a FA.

Also, if Rene Tosoni, Swarzak and a PTBNL are enough to get Escobar, let’s just throw in Hoey and Butera and have them send Jose Bautista our way while they’re at it.

Sheesh.

by USAFChief on Oct 20, 2011 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm not liking this.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Oct 19, 2011 6:35 PM EDT reply actions

Pitching first

That needs to be the focus. Cuddy is my fav Twin but not worth those numbers.

by clutterheart on Oct 19, 2011 9:23 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

I'm as big a Cuddy fan as anyone

I almost bought a jersey and I’m a frugal sports fan. I own a Marvin Harrison jersey that I only bought after the Colts made the super bowl because I felt I had to represent at the sports bar for a super bowl.

Point being I was ok when Harrison left/retired and the Colts didn’t overpay to keep him and I’m ok with the Twins not overpaying for Cuddyer to not retire.

Offer him arbitration and worst case you get a solid flexible player for one more year which gives you more time to see what you’ve got in Revere, Parmelee, Tosoni, Benson in order to replace him. If not he signs elsewhere and the Twins get a 2nd first round pick.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Oct 19, 2011 10:11 PM EDT reply actions

yeah the draft picks would be so nice...

I’m almost more inclined to be fine with attaining Kubel and not Cuddyer…. However if Kubel signs quick we better retain Cuddy fast.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 19, 2011 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions

They aren't the only fish in the sea

There are enough other options that both guys could walk and the Twins could find a replacement.

by DJL44 on Oct 20, 2011 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions

As far as I'm concerned...

As far as I’m concerned this is G.M. Smith Curtin Call, don’t let Cuddyer and Kubel both go!
We need pitching but we need those bats as well. Or we will go back to a slap hitting team.
We already know capps is gone slowey should go if not traded, Liriano….i would sign him trade then him to a talented pitching team for some players…Braves, Gaints..young pitching players and propescts. Or keep him? Trade Pavano??
Shortstop and 2nd base was the biggest disappointments i have ever seen.
Cuddyer is a team clubhouse leader, plays almost every position we put him in. Between him and Hunter i would keep cuddyer. But i will go with the arbitration on him, we need to look at the future.
I really think this Owner wants to win a World Series. Too me as a Fan that is what i want hear every year from the this ball club.
Or better yet lets increase the payroll 15% and go for the All.

by twinssdfan on Oct 19, 2011 10:15 PM EDT reply actions

Several factors

One factual error—Cuddyer played last year as a 32 year old and next year will be 33. A 3-year deal would pay him through 35 (4 years—36). As pointed out above, an arbitration offer is a near cinch and Cuddy refusing the offer is also near certain. Cuddyer has indicated he wants years and a long contract is something the Twins are (and should be) reluctant to do. Reinforcements are coming and should be here in 2014 or ‘15. Cuddyer remains a great fit on the team due to his versatility, his long relationship with the team and because more than any player remaining on the Twins team he exemplifes the “Twins Way”. He also has power and hit righthanded, two things the Twins lack. The problem will be finding common ground on a contract, if Cuddyer even wants to return. He’ll be 33 and wants a minimum of three years. If the Twins can’t contend in that stretch, why would Michael want to stay? Why would the Twins want to sink that kind of money into an aging corner outfielder? The Twins are hamstrung a bit by the existing contract of Mauer and Morneau and the gaping holes that they must fill almost certainly by taking on salary—most likely by signing free agents.

I, for one, want Cuddyer to stay. I think that like a small number of players, he will continue to play well into his mid-30s and I think his leadership on and off the field are necessary to turn the club around. I will pull for this player no matter where he goes and if he’s not playing for the Twins, whatever team he is on will be my second favorite team.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Oct 21, 2011 11:29 PM EDT reply actions