Off-Season Blueprint Philosophy, Part II: Twins Need Quality Right-Handed Hitters
Last Thursday we went over the rather obvious fact that in recent seasons, Minnesota Twins pitching hasn't been missing many bats. It should be understood that while you don't need a staff of strikeout pitchers and can be successful without them, a philosophy of filling out a staff with contact pitchers is a flawed one. Twins pitching has a fundamental lack of dynamics, but more importantly if you're not striking out many players then you're putting more pressure on the defense (and the pitchers themselves).
It's this simple: if you rely on the batter making contact to get an out, it's not always going to happen. It's playing with fire. When a player can't hit the ball, however, he can't do any damage.
Today's philosophy is also going to be another obvious one, but it's laying the foundation for what we'll be talking about in the coming weeks. After the jump, the last five World Series winners and their best hitters (by OPS+). Are these lineups balanced?
| 06 Cardinals | 07 Red Sox | 08 Phillies | 09 Yankees | 10 Giants | ||||||||||||||
| Hitter | OPS+ | B | Hitter | OPS+ | B | Hitter | OPS+ | B | Hitter | OPS+ | B | Hitter | OPS+ | B | ||||
| Pujols | 178 | R | Ortiz | 171 | L | Utely | 135 | L | Teixeira | 141 | S | Huff | 141 | L | ||||
| Duncan | 140 | L | Ellsbury | 131 | L | Burrell | 125 | R | Rodriguez | 138 | R | Burrell | 135 | R | ||||
| Rolen | 126 | R | Ramirez | 126 | R | Howard | 124 | L | Jeter | 125 | R | Posey | 132 | R | ||||
| Spiezio | 120 | S | Lowell | 124 | R | Werth | 121 | R | Posada | 125 | S | Ross | 122 | R | ||||
| Edmonds | 110 | L | Youkilis | 117 | R | Victorino | 106 | S | Matsui | 123 | L | Torres | 121 | S |
Most of us aren't quite at the point where we expect the Twins to make a run at the World Series in 2012, but with the right pieces (and without a second year of terrible luck) this is still a team that could compete. Good teams should retain a sense of balance in the lineup, and this list illustrates perfectly my point: the best teams have good hitters from both sides of the plate.
In 2010, Delmon Young's OPS+ was 123; Cuddyer's 106. Two months ago, Minnesota dealt Young. If somebody offers Michael Cuddyer a three-year, $33 million dollar contract, he should take it. Minnesota won't (and shouldn't) compete with that, because it's not a responsible investment.
If Cuddyer walks, as he probably will barring something unforeseen (i.e. he accepts arbitration or signs for two years), the Twins will try to retain Jason Kubel instead. For those of you calculating in your mind, that means the 2012 Twins' best batters will be Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, and Denard Span. They're all left-handed hitters.
To remind you of the right-handed batters on the 40-man roster:
But with the departure of Delmon Young, and the impending free agency of Michael Cuddyer, the Twins are once again looking for good right-handed hitting. On our current 36-man roster, your right-handed bats are:
- Drew Butera
- Luke Hughes
- Trevor Plouffe
- Danny Valencia
- Joe Benson
- Alexi Casilla (switch)
- Tsuyoshi Nishioka (switch)
That's an issue. The good news is that the Twins have a couple of positions they can play with this winter, in terms of finding a place for that quality right-handed bat (or two).
Right field is unsettled, assuming the Twins lose Cuddyer. Both shortstop and second base are free for an upgrade if the right fit comes along. There will also be room to play with at designated hitter, depending on whether Kubel sticks around. (It will also depend on the health of Mauer and Morneau, but they're both here to stay and we won't really know how healthy they are until the season gets underway. Still, it would behoove the Twins to find backup options.)
Now we turn to you, Twins Territory. Which free agent right-handed hitters would be fits in Minnesota? Forget about Albert Pujols, we all know it's not going to happen. Here's a list of upcoming free agents. Tell us who you like, and later today I'll introduce Twinkie Town's top ten right-handed free agent targets.
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I think the obvious solution is to....
Sign Albert Pujols. More seriously though, I think Aramis Ramirez would be a good fit at DH.
If the Twins want to spend some money, they could certainly splash some on Ramirez.
Of course that option will have to be declined, which is hurdle #1. But I think that, if healthy, he’d be one of the best best in terms of realistic targets that could perform. He’ll be in his age-34 season, but has averaged a 127 OPS+ since 2004. I wouldn’t mind offering him a two year deal.
Morneau will be the primary DH
Not sure how Ramirez would fit learning first base. Also not sure how he’d perform moving from Wrigley to the AL. And I think this is the reason Cuddy will be back – why take on a question mark over a known quality? The Twins know and love Cuddy. He’s arguably the second best RH bat on the market and he fits in well in this lefty lineup because he kills LH pitching. They can afford him. I don’t see how the Twins would let him go unless the team admits it’s rebuilding. My guess is the team feels that a healthy (huge question mark) Span, Revere, Mauer, Morneau, Cuddy, Valencia (maybe Kubel) led lineup would be a huge improvement and then make cheaper fixes to the middle infield and bullpen.
What about Derek Lee?
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It would be somewhat sad to see Cuddy go.
Im not as high on Cuddyer as most people. I like him because he has been here so long and hes a great guy, but the way he hits right handers is just awful, its like having another slap hitter up there. Aramis Ramirez would be a nice fit, hes a lot like Cuddyer but he hits left handers and right handers virtually the same. Over the last 3 years his hit 292 vs left and 284 vs right. And homeruns per at me are exactly the same at 20 ab per hr. Over those same seasons Cuddy has averaged 1hr per 35 ab vs rightes and 1hr per 16 abs against lefties….Also with both Span and Revere in the outfield we can afford to have Kubel in right so we should re sign him. Thome should come back at 1 year 2 mil. It does hurt the bench a little with versatility but if we dont have him people will complain we have no pop off the bench, and its only a couple mil. Not that its possible since they have an option on him i would love to see Brandon Phillips at 2nd base and let everyone else battle for the shortstop position. Phillips would be hitting 7th in this lineup which would make it very deep
From your fingers to Bill Smith's ears..er
eyes. Or whatever. I guess I’m saying stick a finger in whatever sensory receptor is available to get his attention.
Sticking closer to reality
Because I’d really like to say Jose Reyes and Robinson Cano, I’ll got with Derrek Lee for DH/1B backup and Brandon Phillips.
$14 million is a lot for a player.
But Cano is still a premier player at his position. I’m not sure the Yanks would buy him out, but if they did…I have to imagine the market for him would be immense.
I like Lee. I like Phillips too, if the Reds buy him out.
Cano is arguably the best hitter in the game
And there is no way he is leaving the Yanks, from whom he will get a big pay raise.
I have no idea if he gets bought out
He made 11.5m this year and is scheduled for 12m next year. He’ll be 31 next year. He’d want more than Hardy’s 3/21 deal and would probably get it.
I wouldn't give him that.
But I can see somebody doing it. Maybe I’ve just been brainwashed by the Twins, but I don’t like giving huge multi-year contracts to middle infielders past 30.
Ludwick's not worth that, he's been therrible for a year and a half.
He’s an interesting option though. DeRosa isn’t worth that much either, not at this point in his career. He hasn’t been a decent player since 2008. I think both of those salary totals would have been fine if they were free agents a year or two ago.
Hill is the suggestion I really like. He had such a strong part-year with the Diamondbacks, it’ll just be whether people think he’s finally adapted or if it was just 142 good plate appearances.
Backup Catchers
I wouldn’t mind seeing Molina as a backup for Mauer. Yadier would be nice, he’s got a cannon but I doubt the Cards would part with him
Here's the potential free agent list. Doesn't cover trade candidates, obviously.
Rod Barajas (36)
Josh Bard (34)
Henry Blanco (40) – $1.15MM mutual option with a $250K buyout
Ramon Castro (36)
Ryan Doumit (31) – $7.25MM club option for 2012, $8.25MM club option for ’13 with a $500K buyout – will be declined
Ramon Hernandez (36)
Rob Johnson (28)
Jason Kendall (38)
Gerald Laird (32)
Jose Molina (36)
Yadier Molina (29) – $7MM club option with a $750K buyout
Dioner Navarro (28)
Ivan Rodriguez (40)
Brian Schneider (35)
Kelly Shoppach (32) – $3.2MM club option with a $300K buyout
Chris Snyder (31) – $6.75MM club option with a $750K buyout – will be declined
Matt Treanor (36)
Jason Varitek (40)
by spanspanspan on Oct 25, 2011 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Next you're going to tell me...
Texas won’t trade Napoli for Slowey or Blackburn. Stop making me sad.
by spanspanspan on Oct 25, 2011 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions
hee, hee
you said “poo-holes”
I don't know, but I've been told it's hard to run with the weight of gold,
'the other hand, I've heard it said, it's just as hard with the weight of lead.
by montanatwinsfan on Oct 26, 2011 4:02 PM EDT reply actions

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