Should the Twins Target C.J. Wilson?

by Steve Adams on Oct 4, 2011 11:19 AM EDT in Speculation

There haven’t been any concrete rumors linking the Twins to Rangers ace and free-agent-to-be C.J. Wilson, save for some speculation by the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, but that’s not the point of this post. Part of the fun of the offseason is speculating about wild scenarios; blockbuster trades and impact signings can be dreamed up, and debates about what should or shouldn’t be done can carry us through a cold, Twins-baseball-less winter.

If that’s not the sort of thing you’re into, then maybe this one’s not for you. If it is, stick around after the jump and some for some pros and cons regarding the concept of going after Wilson, and be sure to weigh in on the poll.

First off, let’s just start by saying that yes, this would be a highly uncharacteristic move for the Twins. Big free agent signings aren’t their forte; they typically barely dip their toe into the free agent starting pitching pool. Carl Pavano, Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, and Sidney Ponson weren’t exactly marquee signings (though Pavano was treated like one, and realistically was one of the better options on the market).

But the Twins have over $40M in commitments from their 2011 Opening Day payroll that aren't on the books. Michael Cuddyer ($10.5M), Joe Nathan ($11.25M), Matt Capps ($7.15M), Jason Kubel ($5.25M), and Delmon Young ($5.375M) total $39.525M, and there’s also the possibility of non-tendering or trading Kevin Slowey, who cost $2.7M this season and will cost somewhere in that ballpark again in 2012.

The Twins can afford Wilson. Should they try to sign him though?

Pros

The numbers: Over the past two seasons, Wilson has gone from setup man to innings eating machine, racking up 427.1 innings and posting a 3.14 ERA. His K/9 and BB/9 in his first full season were at 7.5 and 4.1, respectively, but improved to 8.3 and 3.0 in 2011. He’s kept the ball on the ground over 49% of the time, which has helped him keep the ball in the park, even in Arlington’s launching pad. Over the past two seasons, only Chad Billingsley has a lower HR/9 than Wilson. A move to Target Field would undoubtedly help that even further.

The innings: Dave Cameron pointed out (ESPN Insider required) a few weeks back that Wilson is hitting free agency with the mileage on his arm of a guy entering his third or fourth season of starting. For comparison, Clayton Kershaw has totaled 716.1 innings. Wilson has 708. His role as a reliever from 2005-2009 has greatly limited wear and tear on his arm. Granted, there’s still something to be said for natural aging. The rigors of living an extra seven years over Kershaw don’t make it an even matchup, but the risk of a breakdown based on volume of pitches is severely less than that of a standard free agent-to-be. CC Sabathia had thrown 1659.1 innings when he first hit free agency.

The injuries: Wilson had Tommy John surgery in August of 2003, and had some bone spurs cleaned up in his left elbow in 2008, but that’s the extent of his surgical history. Since that surgery, he’s had to miss exactly 12 days of action – one for food poisoning and 11 for a blister on his pitching hand (hat tip: Baseball Prospectus). His "straight edge" lifestyle (abstaining from any drug or alcohol use) speaks to how serious he is about staying healthy.

Cons

The money: Wilson is going to get paid. There’s no way around it. He’s the second-best free agent pitcher on the market (assuming Sabathia opts out so he can re-sign with the Yankees for more). He’s been durable and effective in a hitters’ park, and could earn himself $100M+. I’d be surprised if he got anything less than five years, and I can see his contract ranging from 5/90 to 6/108 (and possibly more if one bidder goes nuts). He’ll have lots of suitors, and there will be competition. The Twins will have to play up a big stadium, weaker division, and really sell him on the health of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau to make their pitch.

The history: Detractors of Wilson will say that he’s only got two years as a starter under his belt, and they’ve got a point. He’s also pitched in a division that’s had two pretty terrible offenses in the Mariners and Athletics. He’s not performing like this in the AL East (though for what it’s worth, he’s pitched very well against them in a small sample).

The age: Wilson would be 35 at the end of a five-year deal and 36 at the end of a six-year deal. Regardless of the low mileage on his arm, very few pitchers in the game have been worth $18M+ in their ages 35-36 seasons.

The other contracts: The Twins currently have $37M per year invested in the combination of Mauer and Morneau through 2013 and don’t really know what they’re going to get for him. Adding another big money contract onto the pile could really handcuff this organization for a long time if everything goes south. That’s the risk, of course, for any mid-market team with big contracts. The upside is that you can afford to give them out, unlike the small market clubs, but recovering from them is still tougher than it is for the Yankees and Red Sox of the world.

I don’t know that there’s much of a chance that the Twins make a serious push for Wilson, but I can almost guarantee that with the amount of money coming off the books, Bill Smith and his crew will at least consider the idea. They’ve got the money and the need. That said, this team has countless other needs and devoting such a large chunk of resources to one player hampers the ability to patch other holes.

Let’s play GM with the poll.

Steve Adams writes for MLBTradeRumors.com and MLB.com Fantasy Baseball and contributes at 612Sports.net. You can follow him on Twitter: @Adams_Steve

Poll

Would you try to sign C.J. Wilson if you were calling the shots for the Twins?

Nope, the risks are too great.

238 votes

I'd make a competitive five-year offer but no more.

456 votes

I'd go six, but probably at a lower annual rate than the five-year offer.

78 votes

Write the guy a blank check, we need an ace!

92 votes

864 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 89 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

Yes

"We're all in this together. Except me - I'm retiring because you guys f*%King suck, and there's no God-D@mned way I'm wasting any more of my summers traveling cross country with this group of fail. Bill Smith can suck my c@%k!"
-Actual quote from John Gordon via montanatwinsfan

by Go Twins! on Oct 4, 2011 11:22 AM EDT reply actions

No.

No.
No.
No.
No. No. No. No. No. No. No.
Nada.
Hell no.

I mean, honestly, I can see this as a guy who signs a 4-5 big money deal and in year 3 the team who signed him is like, “Why the fuck did we give this guy so much money?”

by Panthers FTW on Oct 4, 2011 11:24 AM EDT reply actions

Yes, pass on him

He’ll be this year’s Jayson Werth. A “good but not great” free agent who gets overpaid because someone wants to make a splash. We’re not talking about Halladay or Lee or Verlander or Sabathia. He’s a decent #1 and a good #2 starter. He wouldn’t be the next Johan Santana for the Twins.

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by Flip27 on Oct 4, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Slowey isn't great, but I'd rather him for his very modest contract over what CJ Wilson's ridiculous contract will be.

by Panthers FTW on Oct 4, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Slowey

will not be back weather we get another pitcher or not he has burned his bridges and we all know how malcontents are handled by the front office

first-worst-first?

by holymackerel on Oct 4, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions

What is "back weather"

I’m guessing, due to his hipster status, that “back weather” is always just cool.

by Go Twins! on Oct 4, 2011 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions

"Back weather" consists of the storms that generate behind you when you eat too many refried beans

by ColossusOfRhode on Oct 4, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions

He's not an ace

But he’s a hell of a lot better than the options we currently have.

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by Eric J. Thompson on Oct 4, 2011 11:35 AM EDT reply actions

That doesn't mean we should spend a ridiculous amount of money on him.

If we need to rebuild, so be it. Giving a man like him a monster contract smells like a move that will continue to set this franchise back. We need to focus on our roots, i.e. building from the inside. Seems like all this money has made us worse rather than made us better (through one year at least).

by Panthers FTW on Oct 4, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions

With what?

We are going into at least the third consecutive off season needing someone for the front of the rotation. We haven’t got anyone on the development path likely to get there anytime soon.

Obviously, the price matters, but they need help and Wilson may be the best available help.

by amiller92 on Oct 4, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions

I just can't see it

how can we commit 80-100 + Million dollars to anyone else in the Joe Mauer era.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 4, 2011 12:02 PM EDT reply actions

He's Scott Baker except, with a much better HR/9, and almost 1 BB/9 worse.

Their xFIP’s and K/9 were, for all intensive purposes, identical this year. I would give him what I would give Baker, a competitive multi-year deal. But, like Flip said, he is this year’s Jayson Werth, probably not as extreme as John Lackey. He’s is going to be far over-paid and I would not get into a bidding war over him.

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ROHLFING!!!!!

by d-mac on Oct 4, 2011 12:08 PM EDT reply actions

intents and purposes

There’s a pet peeve of mine.

I’d rather go with Erik Bedard on a smaller contract. If you sign a guy for 6 years he’d better be <30 and an all-star several times over.

by DJL44 on Oct 4, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions

How about both

Bedard and Wilson?

Okay, I’m crazy.

by amiller92 on Oct 4, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions

If you want to pay their salaries for the next five years

Be My Guest.

I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
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by Jessy S on Oct 4, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Ahem.

I take it that if the Twins get both of them you will boycott Twins games and merchandise and anything that would support the team? That’s how “we” pay their salaries.

Kind of seems opposite of most people’s thinking. You boycott when the team tries to get better at any cost and most boycott when the team trades away good players to save cost.

Goodness you are hard to please. :)

by Go Twins! on Oct 4, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions

My focus

I was saying to amiller92 that he can personally pay the salaries of two players. My point is that locking Wilson up for about $90 million would be a lot and that includes adding Bedard to that total. I mentioned no boycott, but was referring to a joke on the Late Show where Paul Shaffer was personally responsible for A-Rod’s salary as a member of the Rangers.

by Jessy S on Oct 4, 2011 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Paul's from Thunder Bay, Ontario CA

Not Texas. I don’t think he is even a baseball fan, really. AFAIK, he was never an owner of the Texas Rangers, so your 1-man boycott of the Twins makes no sense at all.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"I am laughing right now. Am I insane?" Jessy S

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Oct 6, 2011 2:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Better yet

Bedard and Zambrano! Hit the bifecta!

Steve Goodman lives.

by twinsbrewer on Oct 5, 2011 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Not sure Baker's a great comp

Baker’s an extreme flyball pitcher, while Wilson keeps it on the ground which keeps him in the park. It’s tough to say “with a much better HR/9” like it’s not a huge issue. Baker’s allowed 66 homers in 505 innings the past three seasons… Wilson has allowed 29 in 501.

by Steve Adams on Oct 4, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Different styles / similar results

In that same 3 year span Baker allowed only 123 walks, while Wilson allowed 199 – a difference of 76. Which is more important, the 37 extra homeruns Baker allowed or the 76 extra walks that Wilson allowed? xFIP attempts to calculate that difference, and by that measure they are similiar pitchers. Even though they get there different ways, Baker’s and Wilson’s performance are more or less the same. However, that isn’t to say that they would have similar success if they switched teams. Wilson pitches in front of an elite defensive infield, and Baker pitches in a great park for flyball pitchers. I would guess that both pitchers would give up a lot more runs if they switched teams (due to defense/park factors).

I don’t think Wilson is worth it. If Mauer/Morneau/Span don’t return to form, the pitching doesn’t matter. Why take that chance now?

by markos on Oct 4, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Baker has only reached 200 IP once in his career

If he could stay healthy and pitch more innings his value would be much higher. Wilson isn’t worth 5/80 (or more) to the Twins, but a more durable Scott Baker would be a pretty darn good pitcher, IMO.

by Stefa on Oct 4, 2011 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions

If any of the Twins players could stay healthy

We would all be happy.

by Go Twins! on Oct 4, 2011 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions

That Sanford Healthcare sign by Target Field makes a lot of sense now, doesn't it?

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"I am laughing right now. Am I insane?" Jessy S

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Oct 4, 2011 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions

What's the speculation on what he'll make?

I agree that he’s probably a low-tier #1 or a high-tier #2, so a really useful upgrade, but yeah, you don’t want to bet the franchise on him. Off the top of my head, I’d consider $60 million for 4 years, something like that.

by Luke in MN on Oct 4, 2011 12:19 PM EDT reply actions

4/60 would be great but,

But I think he can easily pull in $20M more. With the Burnett and Lackey signings of 5/82.5, he’s got that as a floor, and given the amount of suitors he can have, I’d bet on him surpassing that on a five-year deal.

There are plenty of people who think he’ll get $100M, and while I don’t think he necessarily will or should, it just takes one team to blow up and overpay. I could see it happening, but I’m thinking something in the 5/90 range.

He and his agent have all the leverage, since he’s the clear top arm on the market, unless you think CC actually entertains non-New York offers (I don’t think he will).

by Steve Adams on Oct 4, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Telling comps

“With the Burnett and Lackey signings”

And look how well those turned out

by DJL44 on Oct 4, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions

exactly

huge contracts to pitchers almost never work out.

I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter

by fetch9 on Oct 4, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Look at Santana too.

Huge contract to an elite pitcher, not working out well at all.

by Panthers FTW on Oct 4, 2011 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Not debating that point or advocating a Wilson signing

Big money deals for pitchers almost ALWAYS go south. Though for what it’s worth, I think Wilson is a better bet than either of those two. We’ll see how much he makes me eat my words, wherever he signs.

by Steve Adams on Oct 4, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions

I voted for the five-year option

I’d at least make an effort at him, but if he’s too much, then pass. I think it’d be a “victory” to at least see the Twins try to get someone like him. But after reading a recent free agent ace primer here (whoever did that, again, thank you) I’m starting to think the cream of the crop will come after the 2012 season. Maybe spend this season just rebuilding and getting an ace (or two!) later would work great. But the sooner they’ve got an upgrade, the better.

When I was a kid, I would cover a blue futon with a white blanket, prop it up with a fan set on high, and pretend it was the Metrodome. That should tell you a lot.

by MarshalltheIrish on Oct 4, 2011 12:28 PM EDT reply actions

The question is should they target him

I say yes. I think they need to target every player that is an upgrade and is available. Where they commit the money is a different story. I do think he would be a great addition, but do not think he is the only pitcher the Twins should target.

by Go Twins! on Oct 4, 2011 12:42 PM EDT reply actions

I don't want them taking on another huge contract

They don’t have enough young, cheap talent to fill out the roster if they spend big for a free agent.

by Stefa on Oct 4, 2011 1:01 PM EDT reply actions

I voted for the 6-year choice

What I would really do, though, is offer him five years guaranteed with an option for the sixth year. It’s certainly worth the effort because that would at least make the fans happy to see that the team is at least pursuing and making offers to top-tier free agents instead of waiting to see who’s left in the bargain bin as Spring Training approaches.

Five years, $60MM seems reasonable with an option for a sixth year at $15MM. But once the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers really start fighting over him, then it’s time to back off and let them duke it out.

by leo3375 on Oct 4, 2011 1:08 PM EDT reply actions

Yes, that was my thought process almost exactly while I was thinking about it

"I don't really give a f*** and my excuse is that I'm young, and I'm only getting older somebody shoulda told ya" ~Drake (I'm On One)

by twinsgirl197 on Oct 4, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

ever notice.

that our beloved twins cant get over the yankee hump . but if a player leaves and is on a new team they do just fine against them . delmon young game winning homer.

by skol viking on Oct 4, 2011 1:36 PM EDT reply actions

Could it have something to do with our coaching staff?

Nah, of course not.

by Zapf on Oct 4, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah!

I heard Pat Neshek threw a no-hitter against them last night too!

I don't know, but I've been told it's hard to run with the weight of gold,
'the other hand, I've heard it said, it's just as hard with the weight of lead.

by montanatwinsfan on Oct 4, 2011 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Sample Size.

Cheering for inconsistent, undisciplined teams [Twins, Wild, Packers, Hawkeyes] since 1989. "False Hope is better than No Hope"

by Yabbs on Oct 4, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Delmon was 4 for 12 in the 2010 ALDS with a triple and a walk

So it’s not like he was slacking against the Yankees with the Twins.

by ColossusOfRhode on Oct 4, 2011 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

I don’t think Delmon can be blamed for the Twins’ failings against the Yankees. I think pitching is a problem which is why they need to pick up a guy like CJ Wilson if the price isn’t too outrageous…… :)

by Go Twins! on Oct 4, 2011 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions

I like him but not 90 million like him

I agree that he should be targeted and a fair 5 year offer would make sense. However given the performance this past year of the Twins I don’t see it happening. I say roll with what we have maybe take a chance on a former Ace making a comeback like Bedard.

The free Agent for next season look much better.
Cole Hamels
Matt Cain
John Danks
Zach Greinke
Shawn Marcum
Anibal Sanchez
Jonathan Sanchez
possibly Jake Peavy

The point being there’s a crapton of good pitchers a year away from free agency. If the year is looking good there’s a solid chance some of these guys will be available at some point. I also realize there’s a decent chance some of these guys resign but either way the free agent pitching market should look substantially better in 2012 than in does in 2011.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Oct 4, 2011 1:55 PM EDT reply actions

Nice list

However, I think it is clear that we have a list of players that are out of our league in terms of cash. First, there is no way that Hamels, Cain, and Danks will not leave their current team, and the rest are going to be overvalued starting with Zach Greinke. The only one on this list we can maybe get is Jake Peavy, but he is about as consistent as Francisco Liriano who is the unamed pitcher on that list.

by Jessy S on Oct 4, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe not for Marcum and the Sanchezs

I agree there is no way the Twins will pay what it takes for Hamels or Cain.

As for Danks, I’m not sure he’s even an upgrade.

by amiller92 on Oct 4, 2011 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know why I'm getting into this

The Twins are a top ten payroll so ur pretty far off assuming they can’t afford these players. After 2013 the only large salary we have will be Mauer. There’s no reason to think the Twins couldn’t get one of these guys if they truly wanted to.

I said some of them will resign with their current teams. In fact the only guy I see as being flat out too much at this point is Greinke. The point also is that with all of these big names as free agents they won’t be overpaid like CJ Wilson is likely going to be as the only top of the rotation FA pitcher this year.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Oct 4, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Its just pure rosterbating

but what if we signed him, traded for Jonathan Sanchez from the giants and trotted out a rotation of

Wilson
Baker
Sanchez
Liriano
Rookie or Pavano

It would be a gamble rotation but if Liriano and Sanchez return to form a nasty one, but it will never happen

first-worst-first?

by holymackerel on Oct 4, 2011 2:17 PM EDT reply actions

and he's Straight Edge

give him a blank check. Best player in the league.

by y2jayjk on Oct 4, 2011 2:55 PM EDT reply actions

ya that is my problem with him

probably makes me a bad person but I dont like people that flaunt their higher morals like throwing how the are straight edge or overly christian in your face, but I suppose Mauer would like him lol.

first-worst-first?

by holymackerel on Oct 4, 2011 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions

it suggest some sort of pathology to me

Although despite Mauer’s wholesome image, I don’t’ think he goes that far.

by amiller92 on Oct 4, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

What about Mark Buehrle?

…isn’t he a free agent this winter? He is what, 32? I would rather go hard for him than Wilson.

by roger13 on Oct 4, 2011 3:11 PM EDT reply actions

Burhle hates the twins hes been our rival forever

and hasnt he stated he will only play for the sox or cards if not one of them he is ok with retiring.

first-worst-first?

by holymackerel on Oct 4, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Plus, he's overrated.

by spanspanspan on Oct 4, 2011 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions

More accurately, we don't need a slightly better Pavano, when we already have Pavano.

Cheering for inconsistent, undisciplined teams [Twins, Wild, Packers, Hawkeyes] since 1989. "False Hope is better than No Hope"

by Yabbs on Oct 4, 2011 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions

He's a zombie.

We need to stay away from undead players

He’ll eat our brains…or maybe starve.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"I am laughing right now. Am I insane?" Jessy S

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Oct 4, 2011 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd rather have Prince.

I mean really, wouldn’t you? If you’re going to spend that kind of money somewhere? We need a new 1B anyway, as if Justin does manage to come back it’s going to be as a DH.

by timprov on Oct 4, 2011 3:51 PM EDT reply actions

If Prince doesn't want Milwaukee

He’s not going to want Minneapolis either

by Go Twins! on Oct 4, 2011 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions

C.J. Wilson

Forget about him.

I rather trade Denard Span and Trevor Plouffe to the Atlanta Braves for Jason Hayward and two of their pitching prospects. Of course, fischean would not approve of getting rid of Span, but this team can use some pitching and Atlanta’s farm system is overloaded with starting pitching.

by Jessy S on Oct 4, 2011 3:52 PM EDT reply actions

No

"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."

by John_Locke on Oct 4, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Span and Plouffe for Heyward AND two pitching prospects? Might as well attempt to sign CC Sabathia and pay him in tofu.

by Brady Eyestone on Oct 4, 2011 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

lol

lets be fair now you can deep fry tofu

first-worst-first?

by holymackerel on Oct 4, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Yup.

WordUpThome: BOOM, HAND HUGGED
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by fischean on Oct 4, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

i would like a cat that can both cook me dinner and poop out gold coins

I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter

by fetch9 on Oct 4, 2011 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs

a cat huh?

man, some people’s weird fetishes never cease to amaze me.

I don't know, but I've been told it's hard to run with the weight of gold,
'the other hand, I've heard it said, it's just as hard with the weight of lead.

by montanatwinsfan on Oct 4, 2011 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Which is why I stay away from Montana.

by Jessy S on Oct 4, 2011 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions

The only place that trade works is MLB: The Show 2012

Neither side would do that.

Cheering for inconsistent, undisciplined teams [Twins, Wild, Packers, Hawkeyes] since 1989. "False Hope is better than No Hope"

by Yabbs on Oct 4, 2011 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions

i wouldn't say neither side

unless bill smith has developed an affinity for meth

I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter

by fetch9 on Oct 4, 2011 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Bill Smith wouldn't trade make the trade for one of two reasons:

1) It’s a trade lopsideed in the Twins favor. (Obligatory Bill Smith Hate Here)
2) Span is a franchise guy and Plouffe still has upside in his eyes. Plus we can got plenty of pitching prospects for Delmon and JJ Hardy (again in his eyes).

Cheering for inconsistent, undisciplined teams [Twins, Wild, Packers, Hawkeyes] since 1989. "False Hope is better than No Hope"

by Yabbs on Oct 4, 2011 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions

sarcasm aside

if he was willing to trade Span for a reliever, he’d do it for a better outfielder

I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter

by fetch9 on Oct 4, 2011 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions

trading Denard and Trevor is NOT allowed.

Ok, so I guess I’d get over Trevor leaving but trading Denard would make me cry

"I don't really give a f*** and my excuse is that I'm young, and I'm only getting older somebody shoulda told ya" ~Drake (I'm On One)

by twinsgirl197 on Oct 4, 2011 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Me too

by spanspanspan on Oct 4, 2011 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions

You'd have to change your username

by ColossusOfRhode on Oct 4, 2011 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Or join Talking Chop

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"I am laughing right now. Am I insane?" Jessy S

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Oct 4, 2011 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Then

You can drive to North Dakota and personally slug me a good one.

by Jessy S on Oct 4, 2011 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions

if that means I can punch you then sure...

(I’m kidding, for the record, I wouldn’t punch anyone on here)

"I don't really give a f*** and my excuse is that I'm young, and I'm only getting older somebody shoulda told ya" ~Drake (I'm On One)

by twinsgirl197 on Oct 5, 2011 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Not sure I understand the Jonathan Sanchez love

He’s a guy who’s walked just under five per nine in his MLB career (5.9 this year), never reached 200 innings, and has been on the DL in three of the last five seasons. I’m all for obtaining a high strikeout arm, but Sanchez isn’t one I like. His career FIP and xFIP are pretty much in line with our current starters.

by Steve Adams on Oct 4, 2011 4:42 PM EDT reply actions

Which is exactly why the Twins need him

Bill Smith is attempting to collect the greatest group of mediocre #3-4 starters in the league.

We shall dominate….once in a while…..maybe.

by Go Twins! on Oct 4, 2011 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions

We shall dominate the AL Central

And the Pittsburgh Pirates.

by Jessy S on Oct 4, 2011 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions

In other news... the Rangers just beat the Rays

So… Rangers v. Tigers for ALCS?

by ColossusOfRhode on Oct 4, 2011 5:14 PM EDT reply actions

I'd be fine with that.

I’d be torn again sd to who to cheer for though. I’m both happy for the rangers and sad for the Rays… they are tied for my second AL team… Tigers for the post season are who I was rooting for though in the AL… This is hard

"I don't really give a f*** and my excuse is that I'm young, and I'm only getting older somebody shoulda told ya" ~Drake (I'm On One)

by twinsgirl197 on Oct 4, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm wearing a Tigers shirt today and the Rangers had their chance last season

This is not a tough decision for me. :-p

by ColossusOfRhode on Oct 4, 2011 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions

All that love for the Red Sox

And all that AL East love, and look they are all 3 going to be sitting at home soon (Knock on Wood)

East Coast Bias.

by Go Twins! on Oct 4, 2011 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I should probably be careful jinxing the Tigers like that

*Finds wood*

*Knocks on it.*

by ColossusOfRhode on Oct 4, 2011 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I Would Not

1. Too short of a track record to pay $100 mil.

2. Age

3. Cameron’s arm mileage argument is invalid. Wilson’s extended stay in the minors compared to other young aces makes the pitching difference a wash.

4. Having been a low-inning setup man for quite a few years before suddenly becoming a high-inning workhorse should raise serious red flags, especially with his history. There is INCREDIBLE risk there for the next couple of years.

5. Even if you promise he won’t get hurt, hee only has one over 5 WAR year in his career. It’s a massive overpay after a career year.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Oct 4, 2011 5:34 PM EDT reply actions

I'm with you on 1, 2, and 4. The others I'm not so sure though

Wilson threw 403 minor league innings, so he’s got 1111.1 innings as a pro (which is an odd/cool number). Adding in his playoff innings, he’s still well-short of most free agents when they hit free agency. In terms of innings, he really is around the same number as a guy entering their fourth season as a full-time starter, depending on when they broke into the Majors. Using the CC example again, he had 1905 pro innings under his belt when he hit free agency.

I don’t think it’s fair to penalize him for “only” having one 5 WAR season when he’s been a reliever most of his career, but I also understand that’s where the inherent risk lies (as you pointed out in your fourth argument). Still, it’s tough to use WAR in that context. And to play devil’s advocate, he wouldn’t need to be a 5+ WAR pitcher to justify a salary of $18M on the open market.

by Steve Adams on Oct 4, 2011 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree with Adam on First

Basically this is on all counts. First the number of innings pitched doesn’t matter because we are talking about a pitcher that was in the bullpen and became a starter. There is a risk that the Rangers might have overused him this season and this might result in injury troubles for Wilson. We don’t need for him to blow his elbow during the 2012 season. So what if he had 708.1 innings in the majors. This leads into the other point of contention. He has only one over 5 WAR year in his career. The Twins would be better off offering him $70 million total, including an option year, as the team closer. That would be $14 million per year for five years.

by Jessy S on Oct 4, 2011 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions

My thoughts on WAR

I believe the WAR concerns are valid because I am unwilling to hand out a $100 million + contract without a longer track record than 2 very good years. Perhaps Wilson could have done it for years before he ever got the chance. Perhaps not. If he’s going to get a premium deal, I feel he should have a long record of consistent, high-level pitching that is bankable.

If anything, that’s more of a commentary on my feelings on player projection than anything else.

by AdamOnFirst on Oct 5, 2011 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Ron Darling and Rick Porcello reunited again!

SOMEBODY PINCH ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I don't know, but I've been told it's hard to run with the weight of gold,
'the other hand, I've heard it said, it's just as hard with the weight of lead.

by montanatwinsfan on Oct 4, 2011 8:44 PM EDT reply actions

Leave Burnett in!

We want the Tigers to win.

I don't know, but I've been told it's hard to run with the weight of gold,
'the other hand, I've heard it said, it's just as hard with the weight of lead.

by montanatwinsfan on Oct 4, 2011 8:56 PM EDT reply actions