Twins Should Trade for Prado.

by MauerFan on Nov 12, 2011 12:12 PM EST

After signing SS/2B Jeremy Carroll to a two year deal the Twins now need to make a trade for Atlanta Braves 2B/3B Martin Prado. We were decimated with injuries last season and suffered from poor play in the infield, particularly the middle infield. He may not be the prototypical Minnesota infielder but he can make the team much better by being put into their offense

Last year the Twins got horrible production from second base. From second base we got a .287 OBP and a total of 1.3 WAR which is pretty pathetic. Prado would add a nice right handed bat to the line-up sliding either behind Justin Morneau or behind Denard Span, he wouldn't contribute much defensively though. Before last year Prado put up WARs of 4.4 and 3.2 showing that last year was most likely a fluke. Prado did have a down year but that was mainly due to a case of bad luck. His slash line last year was .260/.302/.385 and his power seemingly went away, he only had a .125 ISO compared to his .141 career ISO. His .296 wOBA was also well below his .337 career wOBA. Compared to his career BABIP of .315 last year's .266 was a dissapointment. The .049 differential is pretty significant and he should see that climb.

Normally Prado is a pretty good line drive hitter but last year he really struggled with hitting line drives. His career LD% is 18.9% and last year it was only 14.6%. Those line drives turned into ground balls and flyballs. His GB% increased 2.3%, going from 48.5% to 50.8% and his FB% went from 30.5 % to 34.6%.

Let's take a look at what Prado could do next season assuming his BABIP returns to his career average or close to it with this data that I calculated.

Prado 2012 Prado 2011

xHits=167 Hits=143

xOBP=.343 OBP=.302

xAVG=.303 AVG=.260

xSLG=.428 SLG=.385

xBABIP=.315 BABIP=.266

xBABIP has him returning to his normal BABIP of .315 making a bounce back season all the more likely. xAVG, xOBP and xSLG have him at .303/.343/.428 putting him at the production he was giving in 2010.

Financially Prado is projected to make $4.4 million dollars next season and for what he can do that's not very expensive at all. The next two seasons Prado should be able to produce WARs of 3 and 3.5 respectively making him worth $32.5 million dollars in value. For what he's getting paid he'd be a steal.

2012 2013 Total WAR/Value

WAR 3 3.5 6.5

Value $15 mil $17.5 mil $32.5 mil

Prado wouldn't be too expensive, probably costing a tier two prospect and possibly a tier three. With only $7.9 million tied up with Carroll and Prado Minnesota would still have a little over $20 million dollars to sign a back-up catcher, outfielder and possibly two pitchers.

In the end, if Minnesota can get Martin Prado, possibly with a package involving one of their lower level outfield prospects they should pull the trigger. xBABIP shows that Prado should make a comeback and if the Twins can get him when his value is low they need to do it.

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Comments

You lost me at "Jeremy" Carroll

Seriously though, Prado would probably be an upgrade offensively over Casilla if he rebounds. I like Casilla more than most though, and before he got hurt, he was starting to show what he can do. Prado’s 3 good years included BABIPs of over .330 (seriously, how do you sustain that for 3 years?), whereas Casilla’s has been under .305. I also don’t know how Prado is defensively at second. Say what you will about Casilla, he’s at worst slightly below average with decent range.

I guess what I’m saying is I wouldn’t want to give up too much for Prado, considering he’s only a slight upgrade offensively and possibly a slight downgrade defensively. Casilla is also much cheaper.

by Caleb A on Nov 12, 2011 1:06 PM EST reply actions

What would we have to give up for Prado?

by RaysOfHope on Nov 12, 2011 3:54 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

MLBTR says the Rockies are going after Prado

And Atlanta was interested in Seth Smith, a guy with 4+ years of experience in the majors. I don’t know if that will happen, but it sounds like Atlanta wants quite a bit more than a second tier prospect.

by spanspanspan on Nov 12, 2011 4:14 PM EST up reply actions

Sounds like the Twins could have had him for Delmon Young

But they REALLY needed Lester. Good trade Billy!

The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot. -Joe Posnanski

by DaTwins on Nov 15, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions

Sounds like the Rockies...

Might give up Seth Smith and a prospect for him. Cost is too high, imo.

In other news, Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett are reportedly available for trade. If we could include Jim Hoey and Lester Oliveros in some kind deal for Bartlett, that would be the most amazing magic trick ever:

Johan Santana, Matt Garza, and Jason Bartlett are turned into… Jason Bartlett. CANNIBAL!

by spanspanspan on Nov 15, 2011 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Not really

The scribes are floating Young’s name now. Remember Delmon was OPSing in the low .600s at the trade deadline. Delmon’s stock has gone up with his decent play for the Tigers in the regular season and his power hitting in the playoffs. On August 10, he was a 99% certain non-tender for the Twins.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Nov 15, 2011 4:03 PM EST up reply actions

hindsight is 20/20

The Hochevar Principle: The future comes to all teams. Some teams wait for it. Those teams finish in last place a lot. -Joe Posnanski

by DaTwins on Nov 16, 2011 1:52 AM EST up reply actions

There seems to be a lot of that around here.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
#OccupyTwinkieTown

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Nov 16, 2011 11:02 AM EST up reply actions

Only Smith would trade a starter

for some low end prospects. I’m sure they want another stater-bench guy and a good minor league. I’d trade Casilla with Tosoni or Waldrop for Prado.

by b1 on Nov 12, 2011 10:20 PM EST reply actions

What kind of a market is there for yoshi?

Would he be a possible trade candidate for prado along with a low end prospect? I mean, he’s clearly going to be fighting for an opening day roster spot, with the chances of him going to triple A pretty high, but he must still have some potential value on the market especially with his reasonable contract after we already paid for his negotiating rights.
If you don’t think he would be an option for prado, what could we get for him or should we just stash him in the minors to learn and hopefully he gets better?

by ackledude13 on Nov 13, 2011 2:46 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions

Nishi's trade value is zero

Why would anybody give value for the right to pay $6M over two seasons to one of the worst players in MLB last year?

by archie2227 on Nov 13, 2011 2:53 PM EST up reply actions

Black awps.

That signing. Never happened.

by spanspanspan on Nov 13, 2011 5:45 PM EST up reply actions

a 14 million dollar oops

we can cover it up as “hair products for Mauer”

"live EVERY week like it's shark week" Tracy Jordan(30 Rock)

by carlpavanosmoustache on Nov 13, 2011 8:09 PM EST up reply actions

Can't see it

Prado is a versatile, proficient, offense-first guy, but the Twins really don’t have anything to trade—almost everyone that is remotely tradeable is coming of either an injury or off-year or both—and they need middle infield defense even more than offense.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Nov 13, 2011 9:17 PM EST reply actions

Bad BABIP is not necessarily luck

BABIP is mostly luck for pitchers, but it’s not as much of a luck stat for hitters – it’s driven by line drive percentage, and if Prado stopped hitting line drives, he earned his BABIP drop. There’s a chance that he actually did regress last year, not just get hit by bad luck. The quick-and-dirty correlation is “BABIP = LD% + .120”, and he hit that almost on the button

For the counterexample, Danny Valencia lost 70 points of BABIP (from a lucky .345 to an unlucky .275) from 2010 to 2011 despite his line drive rate dropping just 1% (for which you’d expect around a 10-point BABIP drop).

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Nov 14, 2011 11:57 AM EST reply actions

We don't have the pieces to get Prado.

I have heard that the twins are willing to part ways with Hicks, Liriano and Valencia which would be too much for just Prado but other pieces in the organization have little value right now for other teams.

by PtP_Guru on Nov 14, 2011 12:21 PM EST reply actions

Why would we trade Valencia?

We have no other 3bman and Valencia is cheep. Plus he’s coming off a bad year, his trade value is low.

by b1 on Nov 14, 2011 8:56 PM EST up reply actions

I agree with this

He’s just one of a few players who have some trade value, along with Span, Liriano, and Perkins. That’s not to say that it makes sense to trade them. Most of these rumors start with other teams that are looking at our undervalued talent and hoping to get a bargain.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 15, 2011 9:49 AM EST up reply actions

I could see trading Morneau or Liriano.

Those two could bring us back some value. Morneau would be a gamble.

by b1 on Nov 16, 2011 9:04 AM EST up reply actions

LOLWUT

If you can find a GM to take Morneau’s contract with his injury risk, you should also try to sell them a bridge.

As far as Liriano is concerned, trading him now would be selling low on a starting pitcher who can post ace-like numbers in a spot where we need to add hurlers with upside to our rotation.

by Flip27 on Nov 16, 2011 11:48 AM EST up reply actions

yep...

i wouldn’t even consider trading Liriano right now unless it was a Ubaldo-like return. They’re very similar pitchers.

by DJSkillz on Nov 16, 2011 5:41 PM EST up reply actions

how long do you what to

give Liriano to put up those ace like numbers. This will be his last year with the Twins before he goes FA.

by b1 on Nov 16, 2011 10:38 PM EST up reply actions

well, he was an "ace" in 2010, just 1 season ago...

but he pitched almost 250 innings (including winter ball) that year after throwing only around 130 the year before. which led to a dead arm and injuries last year. this will be his first regular offseason/regular innings (no big innings jump) since he came up to the majors. i think he rebounds with another great year (2010-esque; CY consideration again). it’s worth a gamble to pay him around 4/$40M if he’ll take it. That offers some decent risk/reward for each side.

Because if he has a year like that this year, he’d command probably at least 4/$64M on the open market next year. If he has a down year (like 2011) he’d still command probably in the 3/$20M range AT LEAST, and that’s probably pretty conservative. For a team with limited potential “ace” options, it makes sense to stick with the one you have on the cheap rather than give up a bunch of top prospects to go get one.

I maintain that if Liriano was on another team we’d look at him much like we look at Ubaldo/Cueto/Volquez, etc. and be talking about “trading for him on the cheap”. Let’s keep what we have with a gamble. If he doesn’t have a great year, he’s still tradeable. But if he does, we will certainly lose him to the Yankees/RedSox of the world. And we can always look to the trade deadline if we still need an “ace”.

by DJSkillz on Nov 16, 2011 11:19 PM EST up reply actions

oh, and...

there was AMPLE evidence for the dead arm. Drop in velocity of about 2-3 MPH, major drop in control, and stints on the DL with basically that. that is classic dead arm from overuse, just like he was in 2009 after the Twins were idiots and pitched him 199 innings in his first year back from TJ. Liriano has been GROSSLY mishandled by the Twins over his career so far.

by DJSkillz on Nov 16, 2011 11:20 PM EST up reply actions

+1

I’m all for signing Liriano long term right now given that his price/value might be about to skyrocket. -I was actually thinking about writing a fanpost about it. Trading him is easily the worst option.

Even if you let him play out 2011 and become a FA, you’re probably going to get compensation picks for him when he leaves (assuming he has the bounce-back season I’m expecting). Still, I’d sign him to a 3-4 year deal now and lock him up at a reasonable price while you have the chance. If he was willing to sign a 4-year/$40 mil deal (8, 9.5, 10.5, 12) I’d ink that tomorrow.

by Flip27 on Nov 17, 2011 9:23 AM EST up reply actions

Liriano couldn't make the Braves starting rotation.

by Emma2011 on Nov 17, 2011 9:30 PM EST up reply actions

Which Liriano?

The 2008 or 2010 Liriano would have the third-highest ERA+ on that team. The 2009 or 2011 Liriano would struggle to stay in the rotation.

Looking at the guys they had in 2011, Lowe will likely be gone and Jurjens is rumored to be on the trading block.

Liriano is just the kind of low cost, high reward player teams are looking for. For that reason, I wouldn’t trade him. But I’m sure he will draw plenty of interest.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 18, 2011 11:50 AM EST up reply actions

Lowe already is gone

He was traded to Cleveland.

"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."

by John_Locke on Nov 18, 2011 12:54 PM EST up reply actions