Twins 2012 First Round Pick Is Protected: Should They Target Type-A Free Agents?
by Jesse on Nov 15, 2011 10:31 PM EST
in Speculation
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Because the Twins have been so competitive over the last ten years, it's been a while since they've been in the position they find themselves in this year. That position is a unique one, because they won't be penalized as harshly as some teams for signing a Type-A free agent. It's the one upside to being so terrible that you earn the second overall pick: your first round selection is protected from draft pick compensation.
With that in mind, the Twins would still need to surrender their second round pick if they signed a Type-A free agent. Even including sandwich picks, that's still a pretty high slot. After the jump, a quick spin through the list of those Type-As to see if any of them would be worth the gamble.
No, Michael Cuddyer will not be on our list. The Twins can't surrender a pick to themselves.
Catchers
Ramon Hernandez - Hernandez is on my short list of favorites for backup catchers this season, and him being offered arbitration probably isn't a sure thing. But if he's offered it, and he declines, he's not worth the second pick in the second round of June's draft.
Infielders
Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Kelly Johnson, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins
Fielder and Pujols would definitely be worth the pick, but the Twins won't go near either of those two players this winter. Reyes is likely to be worth the pick, too, but the other two middle infielders would be unlikely to give the Twins the long term production they'd need in order to make the gamble worth while. Rollins, going into his age-33 season, is more of a bottom-of-the-order hitter; Johnson is three years younger but has been all over the board offensively. He's the kind of player who's prospects are hurt because of his Type-A status.
Outfielders & Designated Hitters
Carlos Beltran and Cuddyer are both Type-A players, and while we don't need to discuss Cuddyer, Beltran can't be offered arbitration. Ortiz is an interesting case, because I'm not sure how many more years he has left in him, and he's likely to want a multi-year contract. Understanding that the Twins will be hard pressed to be legitimate contenders from opening day this season, I'd lean towards not signing Ortiz. Willingham, meanwhile, is a player who could still produce for the two or three years he'd be under contract. He's the same age as Cuddyer but displays more power and better plate discipline. And he's right handed. With that in mind, he strikes me as the kind of player who would probably be worth the second round selection.
What about you - for which of these Type-A free agents would you surrender a high second round pick?
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Do we know if
draft pick compensation is even going to exist? Many rumors that it won’t in the next CBA, and that it could potentially go into effect immediately.
I heard Type B is going away.
I haven’t heard anything on Type A, but I haven’t exactly been really studious over what’s been happening.
Type A may turn into a sandwich pick only
No more giving away your pick, the other team just gets a pick if they offer arb.
I'd guess though...
that for THIS year worst-case they’d come up with some sort of a compromise, like an added pick at that slot (say Boston signed Cuddyer, we’d get the pick right after Boston’s 1st rd pick, for example). It’s not really fair to completely change compensation with this short of notice, because teams have based strategy this past season on the current system. The Twins, for instance, might have been much more willing to deal Cuddyer and/or Kubel at the deadline if they knew this was coming. And many other teams are in that same boat.
Realistically
The only one I would think the Twins would go after is Willingham. While it would be nice to have Hernandez, giving up an early 30s pick for him to hopefully be your backup catcher doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.
"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."
2nd rounders are not likely to turn into a good player
If they can get an above average starter a team should have no trouble parting with a high 2nd round pick. That pick is ~55th in the draft after the 30+ in the first round and 20+ sandwich picks. Odds are low enough that a team would find an above average starter with that pick to let it go. No team should give up a high pick for a backup or bullpen arm.
I'd take Willingham
I believe his slow start is what is keeping him within our orbit, bc if I remember correctly he had a monster secend half of the season. Hopefully we can get him and let those second half numbers carry over this upcoming season.
JIM JAMS BUSINESS IS MASHING TATERS, AND BUSINESS IS GOOD!!!
I may be in the minority...
but I wouldn’t give one up for any of them. That is, any of the “realistic” Twins potential FA acquisitions. Obviously you give one up (even a 1st) to get a guy like Pujols/Reyes. But otherwise, I just don’t like this FA group much. The difference in options just isn’t worth the pick, even if it is “only” a 2nd rder. I’d rather sign Beltran, DeJesus, Sizemore, Doumit, Barajas, or bring back Kubel (my top choice in the OF/DH, actually) than sign a guy like Ramon Hernandez or Josh Willingham and give up a high pick. The difference between those pools of players just isn’t worth the added value lost IMO.
by DJSkillz on Nov 15, 2011 11:31 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
No
I would not sign any of them. The few players who are good enough to be worth giving up the picks for shouldn’t be on the Twins radar.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
Cuddyer vs. Willingham
Pretty much the same defensively, Willingham is less flexible and he’s played left field almost solely. The problem with this? It may mean Revere’s noodle are in right, which really isn’t that big of a deal.
Just looking at WAR it’s amazing they are the same career wise 14.9 for Willingham and 14.6 for Cuddyer. However, even though they are the same age Willingham didn’t come up fulltime in the majors until 2006 and has never had a season under 2.0 WAR since then. Cuddyer started playing in the majors in 02 and has been up fulltime since 2004. Cuddyer has had 3 seasons tthat are less than 1 WAR since becoming full time including a fat 0 in 2008 (partially due to injury).
I would totally sign Willingham if the price is significantly cheaper than Cuddyer which it’s predicted to be. He can fill the same role Cuddyer did before Morneau became injury prone. He’s worth a 2nd round pick if you can sign him for 2 years 7-8 million a year.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
"The Twins can't surrender a pick to themselves."
If Bill Smith were still the GM, he would manage to do that.
FREE AIRWOLF!
ROHLFING!!!!!
by d-mac on Nov 16, 2011 2:14 AM EST via mobile reply actions
That would be pure genius.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
#OccupyTwinkieTown
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Nov 16, 2011 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
Will the A's offer arb?
I don’t know if the Athletics will take the chance that Willingham might accept arbitration. His value is high right now, but he could get a big number in arbitration.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Nov 16, 2011 7:28 AM EST reply actions
I think there have already been reports...
that they definitely will.
Almost no such thing as a bad 1-year deal, and Billy Beane understands this; so he’ll certainly offer him arb.
I'm going with the rebuilding year.
Sign a back-up catcher/DH, like Ramos. Just can’t get past that one. Casillia has had his chances trade him or use him as back-up. I think it’s time to let Hughes, Tosoni, Burnett, Diamond, Hendricks, Oliveros, Manship, Swarzak, Waldrop, Valencia, Revere play every day. If they can’t hack it, cut them all or trade them. Then let Parmelee, Benson, Gibson and Doizer join who ever is left from that group. Next year is the year I’d look to sign solid player to fill the few hole we should have. Plus, no one know what M & M will do next year. So give them a year with the young kids and I hope some of these kids come through.
Clarification...
Let’s say the Twins lose Cuddyer, but sign Willingham.
Is that a wash and the Twins can keep their draft slot?
It depends on who signs Cuddyer
If Boston signs him (and no one else higher than him on the A list), we would get Boston’s first rounder and a sandwich pick for Cuddyer. If we sign Willingham, we would send our second rounder to Oakland as compensation. So we would in effect trade up picks plus gain a pick (you don’t lose sandwich picks).
If Philly signs him, we would get their second round pick plus a sandwich pick. because they’ve already signed Paplebon (who ranked ahead of Cuddyer). So we would, in effect be trading down with our second round pick. But we would get the sandwich pick as well.
And there are a host of other scenarios depending on the team that signs him. In any event, we get an extra sandwich pick by virtue of losing Cuddyer.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Are the Twins pursuing Kubel?
I haven’t heard much wrt Kubel. I have seen rumblings that Kubel wants to go elsewhere.
Ryan said he would talk to all existing free agents
Whether that means he wants to resign Kubel is not determined.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
They're picking #2, right?
Do we have the cash to make the signing?
I wouldn't worry about it...
Twins have increased their draft and international budgets extensively over the last few years; might be about the only good thing Bill Smith has done as GM.
Joel Sherman has the scoop
He’s reporting that the line for Type A / Type B will be re-drawn higher this year and Type B will be eliminated in the future. It may be that Cuddyer and Willingham end up as a Type B when this is finalized. The Twins would gain a pick for Cuddyer and not give one up for Willingham.
he corrected this...
now says there will indeed be Type B, and that Type A will probably remain for this year as well; changing next year. Which makes sense.
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