Chart of the Day: Cuddyer vs. Kubel vs. Willingham
by Bobomojo on Nov 16, 2011 8:37 AM EST
in By the Numbers
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PrintCould Josh Willingham be the consolation prize for the Minnesota Twins if they lose out on the Michael Cuddyer sweepstakes?
As we discussed last night, Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune reported yesterday that the Twins have recently been in contact with agent Matt Sosnick, who represents both Willingham and Ryan Doumit. This was the first time I had seen the Twins officially linked to Willingham, who will be a Type-A free agent following a monster (29 homers, 98 RBIs) season with the Oakland As in 2011.
Willingham makes complete sense for the Twins, who are at risk of losing both Cuddyer and Jason Kubel this offseason. Of course, a consistently productive right-handed hitter coming off a 29 homer season makes sense for a lot of teams, so the Twins will obviously face stiff competition if they plan on making a serious run for the 32-year-old outfielder.
So how does Willingham stack up against Cuddyer and Kubel, the players he may be replacing in the lineup?
I'll explain the chart after the jump:
The chart above, as you've probably already figured out, compares the performance of these players against right and left-handed pitching over the past three seasons. The metric used is Weighted On-Base Average, which you can learn more about here.
The contrast is pretty striking. Both Cuddyer and Kubel have exhibited significant platoon splits over the past several seasons. The white dotted line on the graph represents the average wOBA for Major League outfielders over the past three seasons (.332), which I put on the graph to emphasize the fact that both Kubel and Cuddyer have both been below-average hitters against same-handed pitchers over that time frame. Willingham, on the other hand, has been great against southpaws while remaining very productive against right-handers.
I've openly questioned whether Cuddyer will remain an everyday player over the course of a three- or four-year contract, given his age and recent struggles against right-handed pitching. While Willingham is not without his warts - which are summed up nicely in this article - the balance and consistency he brings to the lineup is just one reason Twins fans should be encouraged by the fact he's on Terry Ryan's radar.
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Very interesting
Willingham looks like a good fit we can’t resign either Kubel or Cuddyer..
"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona." ~George F. Will
by SooFoo Fan on Nov 16, 2011 8:53 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Wouldn't signing Willingham force us to give up the #2 overall pick?
That seems like an awfully steep price.
Never mind
should have just scrolled down first.
(Chuckle)
I think we’ve all done that before.
Frankly, I’d be happily shocked if the Twins signed a significant free agent. It wasn’t Terry Ryan’s M.O. back in the day. Maybe he’s Changed . . .
Steve Goodman lives.
by twinsbrewer on Nov 16, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
even in giving up the #2 overall pick in the second round
is a STEEP price.
If Wilhmingham was type B sign me up…..because he’s A no thanks
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15469
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 16, 2011 1:22 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not sure I'd want to lose the high 2nd rd pick
And Willingham’s 50 pt drop in OBP upon coming to the AL is worrisome, as well. I’m also a little hesitant to give as much weight to wOBA, OPS+, WAR etc when comparing guys who played mostly in the NL to AL. While the league difference isn’t as great as it once was, it’s still not a level comparison. And Willingham might be worse on defense than Cuddy, too.
Still, I hope we have something better than Plouffe as our RFer next year.
by Gunnarthor on Nov 16, 2011 11:36 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
Agree on Plouffe
He’s a backup, not a starter, at least until he earns it.
Is a high 2nd round pick
Really worth anything? That is, isn’t any pick after the top part of the first round pretty much a crap shoot anyway?
Maybe
but the more you have the better. Since 2001, working backwards, we took Madison Boer (early returns encouraging), Niko Goodrum (BP likes him to stick at short, long term prospect), Bullock and Landengraf (both traded for Diamond and Cabrera), Danny Rams (bust), Joe Benson, Kevin Slowey, Swarzak, Baker, Jessie Crain and Scott Tyler (traded for Luis Castillo). That’s a pretty good return for second round picks (and doesn’t count later round picks like Morneau, Kubel, Duensing, Neshek etc) and this years second rounder should be 10-20 spots higher than we normally pick.
And even though individual draft picks can be sort of crapshoot-ary, the more high picks you have, the better your chances.
I guess why I'm trying to get at
Is that outside of the top few picks, it doesn’t seem like there is that strong of a correlation between draft round and later MLB success (i.e., low round guys pay off all the time, and higher round gives bust all the time).
2nd round is still better than 4th round
It’s orders of magnitude. 2nd round is about 10x more likely than 5th round. 5th round 10x more likely than 12th round.
I'm not sure the average guy on that list has given the team
better value than that likely if they could can get Willingham for a reasonable price over two years or so.
+1
agreed Gunnarthor about giving up second rounder, yikes…
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15469
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 16, 2011 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
I am not
I am not interested in paying much for a player of Willingham’s caliber if we’re going to lose a high 2nd rounder. It might be possible he won’t be offered arbitration though, he’d be expensive in arb…
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
If they sign him I hope it is for 3 years
I don’t like giving up draft picks for short contracts.
I'd sign Willingham.
Both Cuddyer and Kubel, at this point, have established themselves as strong platoon candidates. Willingham allows the Twins to dedicate one roster spot to one player, and he’s a player who can hit both hands.
But again, it depends on how (if) the front office has blueprinted its future.
If they think they can get a collegiate pick at #2 in the second round, a guy who might be ready to contribute by 2014, then maybe that’s the best route to go.
Seems right to me
I’d love to meld Kubel and Cuddyer into one guy and pay for them as one guy. But as too separate guys that really should be platooned together, they are way too expensive. They’re basically the opposite of the proposed Harden/Bedard combo.
Willinghamd seem close to that combined Kuddyer.
Huh-huh, huh-huh
You said “hit both hands.”
Huh-huh, huh-huh
Steve Goodman lives.
by twinsbrewer on Nov 16, 2011 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
I don't.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
#OccupyTwinkieTown
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Nov 16, 2011 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, it was not Tasteful
I’m enjoying the idea of B&B being back on MTV more than I enjoy the actual episodes . . .
Steve Goodman lives.
No, I just didn't get it.
“Hit both hands” must be a euphemism I’m not familiar with.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
#OccupyTwinkieTown
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Nov 16, 2011 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
Out of the 3 players Kubel and the best minor league #'s coming up
And out of Cuddyer/ Kubel / Willingham i just see Josh strikeout rates being higher than either Kubel or Cuddyer….Josh swings and misses a lot. If Cuddyer and Kubel both didn’t have to play all the time against LHPs and RHPs then both their respective wOba splits would have been more impressive on that chart.
I rank Kubel as the best player of the 3 , followed closely by Cuddyer and then Willingham a hair behind Michael.
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15469
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 16, 2011 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
*had ...not "and" in title; ugh
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15469
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 16, 2011 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
Is there a reason minor league #s matter now?
None of these guys are young players.
But yeah, Kubel’s better than Willingham against right handed pitching, and Cuddyer’s better against left handed pitching. But they’d be a really expensive platoon.
both Kubel and Cuddyer have both been below-average hitters against same-handed pitchers over that time frame
Seems like Cuddyer has been a bit below the average while Kubel has been way below. At least from looking that the chart.
by That'sWhatSheSaid on Nov 16, 2011 12:50 PM EST reply actions
2 out of Kubel, Cuddyer, Willingham, and DeJesus ?
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15469
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 16, 2011 1:29 PM EST reply actions
I would like that....
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15469
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 16, 2011 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
Ya see the pay's the thing
I saw an estimate of 2 years/15 million for Willingham and I’ve seen nothing less than 3/30 estimated for Cuddyer. If we lose Cuddyer we get a supplemental and possibly a late 1st round pick. Worst case we probably get a 2nd rounder and a supplemental round for Cuddyer.
When you add the money difference in it’s worth going after Willingham and letting Cuddy walk. Defensively they’re a wash in the outfield. Sure Cuddyer brings more versatility but we’ve always got Parmelee in AAA and Mauer behind the plate that can handle 1B. This is especially true if we bring in a competent backup Catcher.
So yes, I’m all for getting Willingham.
I am also all for leaving both of them and getting David DeJesus. The only thing I don’t like about DeJesus is that he’s coming off an injury and left handed. So depending on what all these guys end up going for it could be that DeJesus+Willingham is the same price as Cuddyer alone.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Good point on the draft picks
If the Twins lose Cuddy but sign Willingham, there’s a pretty good chance that they upgrade their draft position. Sure, they lose the 2nd-rounder, but any top-15 team would give them their first-rounder (which is much more valuable because it comes before the pile of sandwich picks between rounds).
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Draft pick compensation is still being negotiated
The line for Type A / Type B is up in the air right now.
I think that's for next year
I’ve read that comp is in negotiations for next year. But its locked down for this year. I’ll try to find the link.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I would be interested
Having compensation up in the air would explain the slow start to the free agent season.
It really should be that way
When I first read articles saying they might change it for this season I thought that made no sense when teams went into the offseason assuming certain players would garner extra picks. I’m sure the Twins would have been much quicker to deal Cuddyer/Kubel if they weren’t getting picks for them.
So what you say makes sense.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
What if it was a trade?
You guys really wouldn’t trade a second round draft pick for a proven big leaguer who can hit a little? Really?
I sure would
If it was more than a 1 year contract.
Again, maybe
But as I pointed out above, our last 12 2nd rounders have developed into:
1 pretty underrated starter (Baker 15 WAR)
2 backend starters (Slowey and Duensing) that have both had decent years
1 power bullpen arm (Crain)
1 Solid long reliever (Swarzak)
1 current top 100 prospect (Benson)
3 tradeable assets (Bullock, Landengraph, Tyler)
1 bust (Rams) and
2 prospects to early to rate (Boer and Goodwin)
Willingham’s value (in my eyes) sorta falls in the middle of that group when you take salary into account. I certainly wouldn’t have wanted to give up what became Baker, Benson, Crain for him. Probably not Duesning or Slowey either. So, it’s maybe 50/50 that his age 33 and 34 seasons would be better than what the Twins could get in the 2nd round. Then when you consider 1) the Twins are probably in rebuilding mode (of some sort) 2) the 2nd round pick will be higher than any of our previous ones and 3) Willingham isn’t a great fit – doesn’t play RF so we move Span or Revere over there and he’ll eventually block Benson who probably needs another half season at AAA – I wouldn’t make the deal. That said, it’s close enough where I won’t be unhappy if they do it.
Baker, yes
Crain or Benson, really? Crain was a nice middle reliever/set up man, but would you take that over an outfielder who can hit?
Benson maybe, but who knows. Too early to tell. Today, Willingham is a better player. Maybe Benson will develop into a much better player, but who knows.
On Crain
we got 7 seasons from him for less than 6m and when he left, we got a compensation pick for it, which we turned into Hudson Boyd. I’ll take that over what Willingham offers at this point of his career.
Willingham had a nice year but, as already mentioned, saw a serious drop in his OBP will be 33 next year, is bad defensively and would require Revere to play either CF or RF.
Not if Willingham is the primary DH
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I think Morneau will end up being our primary DH
darn concussions.
If Morneau DHs, Wilingham goes to left
Someone besides Revere will play right. Ryan said he thought Morneau would be ready to play “in the field.”
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Who goes to right?
Eventually Benson could be there but he needs some time at AAA and the coaching staff loves Revere, he’s going to play. We had Revere play right a few times with Span in center and Young in left … If we had Kubel/Cuddyer we wouldn’t need Willingham.
Hope you’re right on Morneau at first.
Right, but
Kubel/Cuddyer will cost more then twice as much.
We're essentially giving up a 2nd rounder if we sign Cuddyer
If we re-sign Cuddyer we’re giving up MORE than if we sign Willingham. Is Cuddyer over Willingham worth giving up a sandwich pick?
nobody gives up a sandwich pick
THos are just extra picks between rounds. It would be our second rounder for someone else’s first rounder, unless it’s the Phillies.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Not sure what you're saying
If we sign Cuddy we don’t get the compensation but we don’t lose anything. If we sign Willingham that also comes with the price of giving up a 2nd rd pick.
Are you suggesting that by giving up Cuddy and taking the two picks for him make are good enough to then lose a pick for Willingham? If so, I can see your point but don’t have as much confidence in Willingham as you.
Exactly
Sign Cuddyer – 1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks
Sign Willingham – 1st, 1st supp, late 2nd, 3rd round picks
Sign DeJesus and Derrek Lee – 1st, 1st supp, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd
yup...
give me DeJesus and a guy like Lee (or even a guy like Sizemore) rather than the other options. The difference in Willingham/Cuddyer both money and talent-wise vs. the other options that don’t require compensation does not equal the value of those picks IMO.
I'm not a huge DeJesus fan
My worry is that last year is the start of a decline. Guys like him don’t age well.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
could be...
I don’t necessarily agree. But on a 1-year deal, I think it’d be fully worth it to find out. I don’t want to commit to an OF for a long time (even 3 years or so) because of all the OF’s we have coming that SHOULD be ready by sometime in 2013.
I want Kubel back, but he’s a guy that can/will play OF for 30-40 games a year more than a guy that I view AS an OF’er. I’d look at Kubel more as a DH/1b for this team over the next 3 years given Morneau’s health. Mauer, I’d be looking to play more 3b on his off days from C, transitioning to 3b fully in a few years. Sano I see as a longterm 1b for this team around 2014 or so.
It all depends on whether the Twins feel they can compete for a division title in 2012.
If they come to the conclusion that they can’t, they shouldn’t pick up Willingham.
They sure better be trying
Shouldnt they? What would they be waiting for?
my guess, and it's only a guess
is that they are sort of one foot in the door, kinda how we were in 08. If Mauer, Morneau and Span come back to form, the FO will make moves during the season to make a run at the central, which is part of the reason they’re aiming for a lower payroll so they can add during the season. However, they aren’t willing to make costly, win now, moves during the offseason that won’t help long term. So I could see them adding Buerhrle b/c he could help the rotation for five years but staying away from signing a guy like Willingham or Cuddy for 3 years b/c they won’t age as well and the help they give next year might not be enough.
Sounds like he's gritty and gets after it after all
“Jamey Carroll is a baseball player, he plays the game the right way and will help our ball club immensely.” -Ron Gardenhire
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
#OccupyTwinkieTown
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Nov 16, 2011 3:29 PM EST reply actions
It's not that I don't like Willingham (I do)...
I just see him as very, very similar in value to a whole host of guys out there (Kubel, Sizemore, DeJesus, Beltran, to name a few) and the cost savings not being great. So I’d rather sign one of those other guys and keep our #50-60 (depending on supplemental round) pick.
But if we sign Kubel, we "lose" the sandwich pick we'd get if he left, right?
Effectively, signing Kubel costs us more draft-wise than signing Willingham does (sandwich versus 2nd round).
No, you don't lose sandwich picks
They’re extra picks.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
yes but technically if you sign Kubel or Cuddyer you don't get the pick
thus you lose the pick. I guess you can rephrase it that you don’t get the pick rather than lose it but Luke in MN has a point
Sign Kubel: nothing changes
forgo Kubel, sign Willingham: lose 2nd round pick, but gain sandwich pick that is ahead of 2nd round pick.
So basically if it’s between Willingham and Kubel you actually move up in the draft by picking Willingham.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
I see, you lose potential picks if you sign your own players
if it’s between Willingham and Kubel you actually move up in the draft by picking Willingham.
I agree with this.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Personally though...
I think Kubel’s a better player. And likely to be the best of all the FA “OF’s” on this market over the next 3 years given age/talent.
I’d sign Kubel to a 3 year deal, and I’d sign DeJesus to a 1-year deal (we’re about to have a glut of OF’s) and I’d start to work Kubel in at 1b as insurance for Morneau over the next couple of years. They had Kubel taking grounders at 1st last year and I think that’s a smart course. He’s still a good athlete overall, just doesn’t have the range that he did once upon a time. He actually might turn into a pretty decent 1b; doubt he’d be any worse than Cuddy has been.
Then you're too left handed
Span (CF)
DeJesus (RF)
Mauer ©
Morneau (IB)
Kubel (DH)
Valencia (3B)
Caroll (SS)
Revere (LF)
Casilla (2B)
Six full-time lefties, two full-time righties and one switch hitter. Lefties would eat us alive.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
An overblown problem to me...
Mauer/Morneau/Span/DeJesus all hit lefties pretty well. And Kubel is growing in that regard. And besides, you face mostly righties anyway.
Plus, I should add; I’d be playing Benson regularly in the OF, not Revere. DeJesus in LF, Span in CF, Benson in RF. Kubel some starts here and there in the OF, but mainly DH/1b. And Revere as the 4th OF’er. Besides, hopefully this is just for 1 year or so, and then hopefully in 2013 both Benson and Hicks will be essentially full-timers, both of who hit RH’ed (Hicks is far better from the right than the left).
Is anyone projecting
Hicks in the bigs that soon?
That may be a bit early..
might be more like mid-2013, but I don’t think it’s unfathomable with a good year. I think it’s likely ONE of Hicks/Arcia/Morales shoots through quickly from here on out. My guess would be Hicks with his OBP skills. I just think a light’s going to click for him. I don’t really buy into AFL stuff (small sample size), but at the same time multiple reports have been saying he seems to be getting it and making good adjustments for power.
by "a lights going to click"
He might just stop switch hitting. I’d like to see him try hitting righty against righty pitchers and see how he does. His splits from the left side are continuously awful. So if he can just admit he’s a righty we might see some quick change.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
If they just stopped switch hitting him, he'd be a 2013 player
Maybe a 2012 September call-up.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Kubel is not growing in that regard
The others do OK, but not as well as they hit righties, especially from a power perspective.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Disagree CMath...
Kubel’s made strides against lefties, especially lefty starters, over the years. Most lefties are always going to be susceptible to lefty relievers (LOOGY’s).
See that chart up top?
It’s says Kubel’s been pretty terrible against lefties over the last three years.
go look at his splits...
he improved greatly against lefties this year, especially lefty starters. like i said, he’s probably always going to struggle against lefty relievers; most do.
Okay
vs. L: .254/.313/.418/.731 in 134 PA
vs. R: .283/.331/.443/.783 in 267 PA
Very good numbers against right handed pitching. Decent numbers against lefties. Still a pretty significant difference between the two (didn’t see starters vs. relievers on fangraphs).
Just for reference 2010:
vs. L: .225/.311/.344/.655 in 183 PA
vs. R: .260/.328/.464/.792
2009:
vs L: .243/.299/.345/.643 in 164
vs. R: .322/.396/.617/1.014
Maybe he did make strides last year. Or maybe it’s an anomaly. But over his career, he mashes right handed pitching and is mediocre against lefties.
I don't think 2011 is the real Kubel
He improved against lefties relative to his numbers against righties, but that was mostly due to his numbers against righties going way down. I Still don’t like his numbers against lefties.
Interesting you mentioned LOOGYs. That has been a major pain for the Twins over the years. Other than LeCroy, they’ve never had a guy on the bench who would make the other manager flinch before bringing in a LOOGY in a close-and-late situation. And he required a pinch runner. This has been a team weakness for a long time. It’s a big reason I prefer Willignham to Kubel. They need more balance, especially if they lose Cuddyer on top of Young (and Hardy).
And if you don’t think it’s a big deal, look at their record against lefties. Pitiful.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
ya, but I'd say that's true for a lot of teams CMath...
most of the best hitters are lefties because most pitchers are righties. And in turn it’s what makes lefty pitchers more valuable in general too. Baseball reference has lefty starter/reliever splits, btw. My point is that clearly Kubel has been getting better against lefties as time has gone on. And I think he’s a very good hitter who will continue to get better against them the more he sees them. Honestly, I think one of the reasons he hasn’t done “great” against them yet is that Gardy was so slow to forcefeed against them in the past.
But he's not getting better over time
Its just last year, when he faced lefties significantly fewer times than the two prior years.
The real question
Are they interested in the Twins?
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