Brady's Almost Complete 2012 Roster

by Brady Eyestone on Nov 19, 2011 3:47 PM EST

I was writing my rosterbation piece last Thursday, then I got a phone call and I had to leave. So, now that my life has calmed down a considerable degree, I am going to whip it out. My 2012 Minnesota Twins roster. One of my guys has already been signed. (Ryan Doumit). And one guy I was going to say I "wouldn't mind having" has already signed (Jamey Carroll). So, where does that leave us? Payroll wise? After the jump.

According to Cot's Baseball Contracts the Twins payroll stands at 66,500,000. This was posted before the Doumit contract. So, that puts us at 69,500,000. And with Jose Mirajres, Matt Tolbert, Kevin Slowey, Alexi Casilla, Glen Perkins, Fransisco Liriano, and Jason Repko all up for arbitration, the payroll could go up about 10 million or so. Which would put us at 79,500,00. Assuming all are tendered a contract. So, what do we do? Let's take a look at what we have. As far as players, including those who are arbitration eligible. As near as I can figure. So we can see what we have a glut and deficit of. To address proper needs.

Justin Morneau LHH	Trevor Plouffe RHH	Jason Repko RHH	Brian Duensing LHP
Tsuyoshi Nishioka SH	Joe Mauer LHH	Fransisco Liriano LHP	Glen Perkins LHP
Jamey Carroll RHH	Drew Butera RHH	Carl Pavano RHP	Jose Mirajes LHP
Alexi Casilla SH	Ryan Doumit SH	Nick Blackburn RHP	Alex Burnett RHP
Danny Valencia RHH	Denard Span LHH	Scott Baker RHP
Matt Tolbert SH	Ben Revere LHH	Kevin Slowey RHP

Let's start with the outfield. We have Span slated in center, Revere in left, and nobody in right. The logical conclusion would be to put Trevor Plouffe there. Trevor Plouffe is part of my outfield conclusion, but so is free agent, Josh Willingham. I sign Willingham to 3 year, $9MM a year contract. With Willingham, Span, and Plouffe starting in the outfield, and Revere as a fourth outfielder, we should be set. Repko is non-tendered.

The starting infield, as of right now, consists of Morneau at first, Casilla at second, Carroll at short, and Valencia at third. With both Nishioka and Tolbert just hanging out. Popular opinion is that both Nishioka and Tolbert need to go, but, I do think that Nishioka can be a useful player. I'd send him to Rochester, and get rid of Matt Tolbert. That will create room for Luke Hughes to come off the bench. We all know that Hughes can't really play shortstop, and that's fine. But both Carroll and Casilla are perfectly capable of playing shortstop.

Now, what do we do with the rotation? We have four right handed pitchers. And really, two of them seem to be worth their own weight. Carl Pavano will give you 200ish average innings. Scott Baker, though he has a bit of injury history, is a very competent pitcher. Low walk rates, and good K rates led Baker to a 3.14 ERA last year. Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn have both have over their careers shown flashes of brilliance, but not enough to where I'm comfortable with both of them on the roster. One of them needs to go. And we'll have a much easier time getting rid of Slowey over Blackburn. Pittsburgh, Colorado, and Toronto have all expressed an interest in him. Send him to whoever offers the best prospects. I am not an expert in either of those teams farm systems, so I don't know what to suggest.

As far as starting pitching, there are a few options. Cheap options. First is Scott Kazmir. With his 8.7 K/9 comes poor pitching since 2009. Also a bit of injury history since.

Former Twins draft pick, Paul Maholm is a free agent. But, he's been nothing more than just under average.

Mark Buerhle is available, but he hates us. And we hate him. But, to be fair, I also hated Joe Crede until 2009.

But, they are all left handers. And to be honest, there isn't a whole lot of options out there. At least not that would be any better than what we already have. I'm sticking in house, and giving that last spot to Liam Hendriks.

What about behind the dish? We have three catchers. Mauer, Butera, and Ryan Doumit. With Mauer obviously being the starting catcher, Butera being the backup, and Doumit being the emergency catcher. Doumit will do a lot of DHing.

Finally, the bullpen. Last year, the Twins bullpen consisted of Capps, Nathan, Slowey, Burnett, Perkins, Mirajes, and Dusty Hughes. The only holdovers are Perkins, Mirajes, and Burnett. I have also moved Brian Duensing to the bullpen. This only gives us one right hander. Obviously we need some more. The first thing I'd do is bring back The Shank. Two years, $4MM each. And for the other spot, I think it's time to give Kyle Waldrop a shot. With my last free agent signing, I'd be interested in giving Jonathon Broxton a shot. We could get him cheap, since he greatly needs to rebuild his own value, and has shown an ability to be lights out. I'm giving him a one year, $3MM contract.

And that puts us at about $91,450,000 after trading Slowey, signing Willingham, Rauch, and Broxton. And in addition to Liam Hendriks making league minimum. So, if payroll truly is $100 million, where does the rest of the money go? Did I give not enough to Willingham, Rauch, and Broxton? To much? Who do you put in that last spot?

Justin Morneau	Ryan Doumit	Luke Hughes	Nick Blackburn	Kyle Waldrop
Alexi Casilla	Drew Butera	Ben Revere	Liam Hendriks	Alex Burnett
Jamey Carroll	Trevor Plouffe	Fransisco Liriano	Glen Perkins	Jon Rauch
Danny Valencia	Denard Span	Scott Baker	Brian Duensing	Jonathon Broxton
Joe Mauer	Josh Willingham	Carl Pavano	Jose Mijares

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Comments

I would be a little hesitant about having Hendriks start the season with the Twins

I would rather have Swarzak or some other cheap FA have the 5 spot and let Liam get some more AAA seasoning. Like Willingham and I also really like Broxton on a cheap deal.

"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."

by John_Locke on Nov 19, 2011 4:09 PM EST reply actions

Slowey.

by b1 on Nov 20, 2011 11:22 AM EST up reply actions

I could see us going after a guy like Edwin Jackson

I also don’t see us with Willingham, Span, Plouffe, and Revere as our OF’s… I think we keep EITHER Span or Revere, but not both.
I could see us signing Willingham, and I’d be fine with that. I’d actually much rather have Willingham at 9 mil a year than Kubel at 6 mil a year. I’d also be fine with David DeJesus.
If I had to guess a starting OF, I’d say:
LF: Ben Revere
CF: David DeJesus (2 years, 12 million)
RF: Plouffe/Parmalee… I think I’m leaning more toward Parmalee too.
Doumit will be our everyday DH/5th OF/1B…
With that 3 million a year saved by signing DeJesus instead of Willingham, I think we’ll get Edwin Jackson.
1B: Morneau
2B: Casilla
3B: Valencia
SS: Carroll
C: Mauer
OF: Revere, DeJesus, Parmalee
DH: Doumit
Bench: Butera, Plouffe, Nishi, and Dinkleman/Hughes
SP’s: Liriano, Pavano, Baker, Jackson, Blackburn
BP: Perkins, Nathan (2 years, 10 mil), Duensing, Mijares, Oliveros, Waldrop, Rauch (like that signing)

by mak07 on Nov 19, 2011 5:25 PM EST reply actions

Ryan said he’s not trading either Span or Revere, and I can’t stomach putting Ben Revere, and his complete lack of power in the starting lineup every day.

Parmalee hasn’t played in AAA yet. And I think DeJesus doesn’t have enough power.

And I don’t like having Duensing, Mijares, Oliveros all in the same bullpen. Duensing gets killed by righties, Righties also have a .412 OBP against Mijares. So, while Oliveros should get a shot, we’d have to take out Duensing or Mijares.

by Brady Eyestone on Nov 19, 2011 5:42 PM EST up reply actions

you mention Rever's

lack of Power, but what about our lack of speed, both defensively and offensively without him? He’ll bat 9th, he’s not the Power Problem. The guys who bat 3-5 are.

by b1 on Nov 20, 2011 11:25 AM EST up reply actions

Who cares about a “lack of speed”? Span stole 26 bases in 2010, and while he didn’t run as much in 2011, he’s still fast. Jamey Carroll can run a little bit. As can Casilla.

Offensively, the only thing Revere can do is run. He can’t walk, and he can’t even hit doubles. I don’t care how how fast someone is, if he can’t talk a freaking walk to save his life, and can’t even back up that hole in his game by racking up some extra base hits, AND we have someone who can do both of those things who plays his position, then he shouldn’t be starting.

As far as power in 3-5 goes, Mauer at least hits doubles, Morneau when healthy, will hit 25 home runs, and Doumit, Willingham, Valencia, and even Plouffe have a little bit of power.

by Brady Eyestone on Nov 20, 2011 12:25 PM EST up reply actions

I get sick of the "no power" argument too...

We’ll lose Cuddyer’s 20 HR’s. I get that. We’ll lose Kubel’s 12 HR’s. If Morneau and Mauer are healthy all year, they’ll more than make up for those 32 HR’s.
We’ve added Doumit, who will probably have 12-15 HR’s at DH.
Danny Valencia will probably surpass his HR total from last year.
We don’t need to worry about HR’s. We need to worry about getting runners on, which we’ve shown we’re committed to doing with the Carroll signing and the Doumit signing. If we have a healthy Span and subtract Revere, we’ll also have much more baserunners.
If Span, Morneau, and Mauer are all healthy, we’ll be fine offensively. I’m worried about our pitching still, but our bats will be fine if we stay healthy.
Last year we hit .247 as a team with 103 HR’s and 619 runs. With our additions, I predict we’ll hit around .265 this coming season with 140-150 HR’s and 725-750 runs. Power doesn’t matter for the Twins. Terry Ryan is our GM. I’ve seen what he can do playing “small ball” and I think he understands he needs OBP, good D, and good pitching. That’s what it looks like he’s going after too.

by mak07 on Nov 20, 2011 12:35 PM EST up reply actions

I also understand

It’s a BIG “IF” Morneau, Mauer, and Span stay healthy. But at the same time, we won’t win no matter who we add if they aren’t playing. Our season rests on the shoulders of these players. If they’re healthy, we don’t need to worry about power. If they can’t stay healthy, we really don’t have to worry about winning, because it won’t be a common theme this year.

by mak07 on Nov 20, 2011 12:38 PM EST up reply actions

DeJesus can play center, but he shouldn't start there everyday anymore.

Parmelee isn’t ready, either. Don’t let a monster September fool you. He needs a little time in Rochester before handing him an everyday job in the Majors. I appreciate the optimism in an outfield of prospects in Revere, Plouffe and Parmelee, but you’ve just turned the outfield into a massive liability.

This team also has one player with 20+ HR power in Justin Morneau. Valencia can hit 15-20, Mauer could hit 15 if he’s healthy, but if this was Minnesota’s offense we’d be in the hurt bag.

Jackson wouldn’t be a bad option to pursue. I like him.

Mostly, and after reading your solid comment on Terry Ryan in another thread, I want to know where you’re getting the Span-or-Rever-but-not-both mentality. Considering how the roster is set up right now, it seems like some pretty wild speculation.

by Jesse on Nov 19, 2011 6:29 PM EST up reply actions

I think both have huge question marks going into this year...

Revere basically is Carlos Gomez without the solid arm. He may never be a solid CF in this league.
Denard Span has the concussion symptoms lingering over his head, and we have no idea if he’ll ever return to his old self.
I think Ryan will keep the one he has most confidence in and trade the other before they lose all their value.
If Ryan knows Revere will never develop the arm to play CF and doesn’t see him ever being a solid hitter, he’ll trade him while he still has value.
If Ryan thinks Span is done these symptoms will linger him for the rest of his career, he’ll trade him while he still has some value.
What I’m saying is this: If Ryan sees either of them as a big risk, I could see him pulling the trigger.
How I would handle the OF:
We trade Revere for M.I. minor league prospects or any young pitching (and not another J.J. Hardy trade just to get rid of him). We will keep Span and hope he returns to his old self. I would sign David DeJesus and/or Josh Willingham, and fill out the roster with Joe Benson and Brian Dinkleman. I know they aren’t flashy, but we’re not built to win right now. In 2 or 3 years we’ll have more OF’s than what we’ll know what to do with. This year, MY OF would look like this:
LF: Joe Benson
CF: Denard Span
RF: Josh Willingham
4th OF: Brian Dinkleman
(Above I had Revere and not Span in my line-up. I think Ryan probably likes Revere more, but that’s just a guess. Which one we retain also determines who we pursue in FA)

by mak07 on Nov 19, 2011 7:46 PM EST up reply actions

Revere is not Gomez

Gomez has power. Revere has none.
Revere can draw walks. Gomez can’t.
Gomez has a strong arm. Revere doesn’t.
Revere doesn’t strikeout. Gomez does.
Gomez is loud. Revere is not.

Other than being fast outfielders, they are not at all similar.

by Caleb A on Nov 19, 2011 8:03 PM EST up reply actions

Career #'s...

Ben Revere:
.262/.305/.606
Carlos Gomez:
.243/.291/.648

Both have good range in CF, but Gomez has the good arm.
Both have terrible OBP, neither of them draw walks.
Both have poor BA, with Gomez hitting about 20 points lower with some power.
They are actually quite comparable. Obviously they aren’t the same person, but they are definitely comparable. There are quite similar.

by mak07 on Nov 19, 2011 8:25 PM EST up reply actions

It's a mistake to compare their MLB numbers: small sample size error.

Let’s do minor leagues instead.

Revere: 326/385/408
Gomez: 279/341/395

These guys are not the same player, other than the fact that they’re fast and have great range in the outfield.

by Jesse on Nov 20, 2011 2:05 PM EST up reply actions

I will agree that it's a small sample size...

But the game isn’t played in the Minor Leagues… A Major League OF will have to hit Major League pitching. Neither has done that so far. I’m not saying there’s no hope for Revere to do this eventually, I just don’t think he a starting Major League OF right now. I don’t think he will ever have the arm to be a great defensive player, and that’s what he was known for in the minors… Sometimes the stats don’t translate. Look at college football to the pros. Sometimes you don’t know what you’re getting.
I’m not saying Revere will never be an average Major League OF,
I’m just saying he’s nowhere near that level right now. And he still has good value in trade. We have 2 CF’s and 1 stud CF in the making (Hicks). We have the depth to trade whichever CF Ryan wants to trade.

by mak07 on Nov 20, 2011 2:40 PM EST up reply actions

Um.

Revere ISOD: .059, Gomez .062.
Revere ISOP: .082, Gomez .116.

So basically they walk about the same amount and Gomez has a chunk more power. Revere has the benefit of being left-handed, which is a big deal especially for speedy players, but otherwise they’re pretty similar.

Revere’s base minor league stats are pretty, but expecting that he’s going to hit .326 in the majors, even with the platoon split and the extra step, is unreasonable. And even if he somehow made it that far, there’s no further upside. To be a significantly above-average corner OF, he’d have to hit .370, cause he’s not getting his value from anywhere else.

by timprov on Nov 21, 2011 7:52 AM EST up reply actions

Revere is a good base stealer

Stolen bases don’t end up in the triple slash but Revere can essentially turn 40 singles into doubles with steals.

by DJL44 on Nov 21, 2011 8:38 AM EST up reply actions

This

They are both hackers. Whereas Gomez swings and misses a lot, Revere hits the top half of the ball a lot. In both cases, they make a lot of outs.

It’s mystery why Gomez’s SB average isn’t better. He stole his first eight bases as a Twin and then he started getting caught and lost his edge. I’d still rather have Gomez, though because of defense. It’s not just the arm. Gomez has better range.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 21, 2011 9:58 AM EST up reply actions

Revere doesn't draw walks

Revere had 281 PAs last year and walked 26 times. And that’s consistent with his minor league walk rate (once every 18 PAs). Gomez had 258 PAs and walked 15 times. That’s actually low for his major league average (once every 19 plate appearances). Neither walks much, but they walk at about the same rate.

In the field, I would much rather have Gomez. Not only is his arm much stronger and more accurate, but he gets great jumps on balls. Revere is fast, but he sometimes gets bad jumps and takes baffling routes on balls.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 20, 2011 1:04 AM EST up reply actions

I could go...

Without either. They both are suckie in my estimation.

I will not be PONDERing anything, ever again....I'm so tired of this pun. Maybe we could use antonyms to be different, like: "FORGET about last season, as we COGITATE about winning in 2011!"...Whatever, SKOL VIKES!!!

by J.RO on Nov 20, 2011 1:47 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I missed on the walks.

I seemed to remember him having better plate appearances, but I can’t find any numbers to support that. I think my thinking was that Revere had a better eye because he doesn’t strike out as much as Gomez, but that doesn’t translate to more walks so….

by Caleb A on Nov 20, 2011 4:08 AM EST up reply actions

Revere

He can go get it in the outfield, but that arm! I think he showed promise as an OBP guy and he can really be a force on the bases. Gomez has had four years in the bigs and I doubt he will develop any farther. If he becomes a regular, it will be because he combines great range with power and exciting speed. Gomez hasn’t developed into great base stealer and I doubt he’ll ever be a high OBP guy.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Nov 20, 2011 8:27 PM EST up reply actions

Walks

Revere walked once every 11 PAs, while walking only one per 18 PAs in the minors. I think that is a significant change, and with a bit better knowledge of the strike zone and major league umpires, Revere’s total might improve a bit more.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Nov 21, 2011 1:21 PM EST up reply actions

Not exactly

He had 26 BBs in 481 PAs. By my Minnesota mat, that’s one every 18.5 PAs, about his minor league average. You might think he walks more because he takes more pitches. But he’s just waiting for something he can take a good hack at, which is a relatively small area of the strike zone. As pitchers learn to avoid this area, he will get fewer pitches he can drive.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 21, 2011 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

Brian Dinkelman?

Dinkelman is not a major league ballplayer

by DJL44 on Nov 20, 2011 9:53 AM EST up reply actions

As a 4th OF?

When we have Doumit at DH that could also play OF when needed? Look how much Jason Repko played this year. Expect about that much PT from our 4th OF next year as well. He’ll only see maybe 20 games. He’s not that bad either. Dinkleman can play. He’s not great at anything, but he’s solid all around, and that’s not bad characteristics for a 4th OF.

by mak07 on Nov 20, 2011 12:27 PM EST up reply actions

He's not solid

He hits like a backup shortstop, he’s a below average outfielder.

by DJL44 on Nov 20, 2011 9:08 PM EST up reply actions

If we just need a lefty bat off the bench

I would think Parmelee is the choice. But you hate to keep a guy like that on the bench. You’d rather have him playing everyday in Rochester. So who could do that job in the organization? Tosoni maybe. Dink is second in line. I woudn’t rule out an acquisition. There are plenty of cheap ones available who would be way better than Dink. With four bench players, you can’t dink around with guys like that.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 20, 2011 9:27 PM EST up reply actions

I'm biased,

but if you’ve still got $10 million left with that roster, you trade prospects and pick up a salary that somebody else doesn’t want. Preferrablly in the form of a power bat.

I still like Prado.

by Jesse on Nov 19, 2011 6:31 PM EST reply actions

We need to give Sizemore a call...

Injury history aside, he could be the steal of the FA class this year, and we have enough tools (and I do stress “tools”) to give him needed rest.

by J.RO on Nov 19, 2011 8:33 PM EST reply actions

It sounds like he and Cleveland are close on a deal so he isn't an option.

"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."

by John_Locke on Nov 19, 2011 10:56 PM EST up reply actions

I didn’t realize that David Ortiz is a free agent. He’d be nice to have back.

by Brady Eyestone on Nov 19, 2011 11:38 PM EST reply actions

we WILL RETAIN 1 of Kubel or Cuddyer

there is no WAY they are BOTH leaving at this point…..

Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 20, 2011 12:08 AM EST reply actions

I'd be pushing Ozzie Gulliens' Miami Marlins digits everytime I was about to dial up a phone chat or call.

It’d go something like this….. “Ozzie we know how much you love the piranas?” , “how about Casilla, Valencia, Mijares, Swarzak and Span for Morrison, Dominguez and Hand?”

- Then we play Revere in left and sign Reed Johnson to be the CF untill we’re ready to committ Revere in CF full time with Morrison and whoever we keep Kubel/ Cuddyer in the other corner spot…. Then Reed becomes the 4th OF. Dominguez meanwhile, will be stashed at AAA ready and waiting….as are Brian Dozier , Joe Benson and possibly Chris Parmelee.
Dominguez will be one of the better defensive 3B of all time.

You can have Angel Morales as a PTBE (ptbl) {player to be named earlier]

Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 20, 2011 12:12 AM EST up reply actions

Wow, I'm disappointed you fit Hanley in there...

Shame Sir….shame.

by J.RO on Nov 20, 2011 1:46 AM EST up reply actions

did you catch the rhyme

“Casilla, Valencia, Mijares, Swarzak, and Span for Morrison Dominguez and Hand?”

say it quickly…. ahhhh deep breath

It doesn’t mean i’d entertain making that exact trade with those exact players both something similar to that, sounds like Twins will hold on to Span (YES) therefore you could substitue Span with a guy like a Benson or something…

Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 20, 2011 7:27 PM EST up reply actions

you couldn't.....cell fail on me.

by J.RO on Nov 20, 2011 1:46 AM EST reply actions

Butera will not make this team

With Doumit as the backup catcher and 12 pitchers, there’s no room for a third catcher.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 20, 2011 2:41 PM EST reply actions

after the signing of Doumit..... I would agree

although will he be the main guy in AAA in front of Lehman…..with Hermann and Rams in AA and Rohlfing in A+ ?

Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 20, 2011 7:30 PM EST up reply actions

I think he'll be a backup behind Lehman at AAA

The otjers will stack up as you say, imo.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 20, 2011 7:37 PM EST up reply actions

I could see them doing that, unfortunately

For the following reasons:
1) Doumit has a terrible reputation on defense. The Twins haven’t had a legitimately bad defensive backup catcher since LeCroy, and they quit letting him catch his last couple years with the team.
2) If the Twins don’t re-sign Cuddy, Doumit could be the de facto backup 1B/RF, and they also might DH him occasionally. Any of those might make Gardy desire a third catcher, lest he risk losing the DH, which we all know is an automatic forfeit.
3) Signing Cuddy might not even fix #2 – if they get Cuddy, they’ll consider him a backup option at every infield position except shortstop, which (along with having two guys who can play center in Revere and Span) means they might be comfortable with a bench of Doumit, one OF, one IF, and Butera, or make Doumit a semi-regular DH.

I’m not saying I agree with any of that logic… but do not put it past the Twins.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Nov 21, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions