Twins Lose Nathan: What Are Their Options Now?
by Jesse on Nov 21, 2011 11:25 PM EST
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PrintWith Joe Nathan signing with the Texas Rangers, the Twins are now staring the future of the closer role square in the eyes. When they chose to buy out his option we knew he'd dabble in the free agent market, and the Twins understood that they put themselves in a position to lose the best relief pitcher the team had ever seen. Did they really think he'd sign somewhere else? Did we, for that matter? It's hard to say, but it sounds like Nathan didn't give Minnesota a chance to match his offer from the Rangers, and that speaks volumes.
It's going to be strange not having Nathan as a member of this year's bullpen. He was arguably the best closer in baseball from 2004 to 2009, before he went down with Tommy John surgery. Sure, Mariano Rivera has been the standard in closers since 1997, but for those six seasons Nathan wasn't just Rivera's equal, he may have been just a little bit better.
But now the Twins have to move on. After the jump we'll examine a few options. Who's your favorite?
Perkins is the only holdover from the 2011 bullpen who is anything resembling a sure shot at being effective. This makes him the de facto in-house favorite to inherit the closer role, and the good news is he's the most inexpensive closer the Twins could ask for. I don't mind if he gets tabbed for the job, but whether that comes to pass or not the Twins still need to bring in two or three quality relief pitchers to take the bullpen from a massive weakness to an area of respectibility.
Terry Ryan admitted this week that the Twins are interested in bringing him back, and I have to agree that for $2 to $2.5 million it's not a bad choice. Capps is better than he pitched in 2011. But he's not my favorite, and I'd much rather have him as a middle reliever than a closer.
Rauch, like Capps, is a good, solid reliever who just doens't have the "shut down stuff" that we've become accustomed to in the closer's role. Nathan spoiled us for talent in that position. Rauch could certainly come in an do the job, but also like Capps I'd rather see him in a middle relief role.
As one of the favorite closers on the open market, Bell figures to get multiple years and a great many millions of dollars. In the short term and long term, he doesn't make much sense.
I picked Broxton to step in for Nathan in my blueprint, and I'm still on board with that plan. There seem to be so many teams interested in him at this junxture though, that it sounds like at least a third of the teams in baseball had the same idea I did: buy low on a high reward player. I'd be very happy if the Twins were able to snag him on a reasonable contract, but at this point I certainl don't expect it.
The first of three Franciscos was 36 last season and saw his game change: strikeout rates dropped but so did walk rates, and he allowed his lowest hit rate...ever. If we're taking 37-year old closers on board I'd much rather have had Nathan, but Cordero can probably be had pretty cheaply on a one-year deal.
The Rangers are interested in bringing Frank back into the fold, and as one of the more talented and younger options available for proven closers he won't come cheap. But if Minnesota wants to throw a multi-year, big contract at a closer, he's probably not a bad one to choose. He's not a likely target, though.
Ryan Madsen
Madsen is younger than Bell and Francisco, and has the added aura of being the new closer on the block. Somebody will pay dearly for his servies. He's the best long-term investment for proven closers on the market. Will the Twins pay $10 million a year for him? Probably not.
Francisco Rodrigez
Say what you want about velocity and changes in his game, but the numbers are still there. It's hard to believe he still isn't 30 years old; he celebrates that birthday in early January. The one thing working in a buyer's favor for F-Rod is that he is perceived by some to have underachieved for the Mets. That, and the fact that there are a lot of proven closers competing for relatively few jobs with contending teams.
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Not exactly pining for this...
but if we are able to find 1-2 starting pitching options, I could see the Twins doing something centered around Pavano/Street. We’ve wanted Street for a while, and the Rox have wanted Pavano for a bit. And the salaries almost work. Pavano makes $9M this year; Street makes $7.5M.
Pavano/prospect...
for Street/Stewart/better prospect?
How about Pavano for Street straight up?
Not really a Stewart fan.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
ya...
I could see it. I just think the Twins would want more (innings).
Stewart, I used to be high on...
but that’s more of a throw-in “potential” guy. Just offers another guy like Plouffe/Valencia; can play 2b/3b, could “get it” or might not.
They have a stud 3b prospect almost ready in COL.
MLBTradeRumors reads our stuff...
The Rockies are trying to move Huston Street because they believe Rafael Betancourt can close for them, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post (Twitter links). Renck expects the Rockies to attempt to acquire a starter such as Jeremy Guthrie or Carl Pavano for Street.
Just sayin’
sweet I'd take thaat Pavano + Morales for Streeet?
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 22, 2011 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
+ it'd save us money to allow us to keep Cuddyer over Kubel if we prefer
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 22, 2011 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
Cuddyer may fit the lineup better.
Provided Mauer and Morneau stay healthy.
ya...
but you’re getting declining years from Cuddy vs. prime years of Kubel, and probably for more money. Plus, Kubel hits lefties better than Cuddy hits righties, and there are a lot more righties to face than lefties.
Cuddyer provides value beyond what he does at the plate.
Veteran presence, magic tricks, charming smile, willing to carry around infinity more kinds of gloves than Jim Thome. Did I mention magic tricks? HE CAN READ YOUR MIND.
by spanspanspan on Nov 23, 2011 6:36 PM EST up reply actions
In that case, I won't write what I was going to
He already knows what I think. Sorry Michael, the truth hurts.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
No Nathan.
I think I’m going to vomit.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
#OccupyTwinkieTown
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Nov 21, 2011 11:34 PM EST reply actions
My first thought when I heard this
was whether the 2 million buyout and hopes of signing him cheaper was the last bad move by Bill Smith or whether Terry Ryan was already involved in the decision by that point……yes I think I just threw up in my mouth a bit too :(
richman
by anderson800 on Nov 23, 2011 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
I like Heath Bell in a Twins uniform.
The Twins probably don’t have payroll space to give him what he wants. What is more realistic is Perkins or Liriano being moved into the closer’s role.
Follow me on Twitter at @twincitiesbball
Liriano won't be moved to closer.
It’s a waste of his talent, and the Twins aren’t paying him millions to close.
Bell would be my top choice
But I assume he’ll get more than Nathan did.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
especially if he's going to leave San Diego...
players always take a massive discount to stay in San Diego. Best city on the planet.
Ho there
I think you could get a lot of arguments on that one. It’s a great city, but I’m not sure it’s even the best city in California. I’m partial to San Francisco myself.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I like all those...
but I was talking “big” cities. If I moved back to CA to a big city, SD would be it.
San Fran is great to visit, amazing food, etc., but it’s crazily prices (even compared to these others) and it’s too crowded. IMO.
"Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded"--Yogi
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
If we go FA route either Broxton, Madsen, or Lidge is who the Twins will likely target (IMHO)
Maybe Co-Co Cordero who is the same age as Nathan….
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 22, 2011 6:26 AM EST up reply actions
well considering Madson is now a full type "A" it would cost us our second rounder, so I rule him out now...
under new CBA
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 22, 2011 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
Bell is interesting
The Twins wouldn’t have to worry too much about the Petco effect due to having a similar park in terms of repressing power. But he will command a considerable salary and seeing what Pap got I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get around 30 mil over 3 years, and thats likely out of the Twins price range. That said I think the Twins would be better off spreading their money out over a few less costly relievers and having one of them or Perkins close.
Broxton, please
But really, ABC.
"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."
Perkins gets job
But the Twins should be aggressive with Octavio Dotel as their setup man against righties and let him be the fill-in if Perkins struggles as the closer. Dotel and Todd Coffey or LaTroy Hawkins can be had for a combined $6 million. With Perkins and Duensing, these four would provide a good anchor to the bullpen.
I guess my last memory of Perkins was not his awesome first 85% of the season, but his horrid last 15%.
I am sure it is mainly due to an increase in workload from Gardy, but he really, really wore down last year. That and I normally do not trust lefty closers and would prefer Perkins in a setup role. Broxton would be my favorite, but I bet some team goes all in on him based on his track record and offers a multi-year deal.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
And also
Don’t move our best reliever into the closer role!
Perkins in Bases loaded situations in a tied game >> Perkins with a 3 run lead in the 9th
by twinscrazy_german on Nov 22, 2011 7:30 AM EST up reply actions
Hadn't thought about that
But that pretty much leaves us with Capps.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
#OccupyTwinkieTown
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Nov 22, 2011 9:13 AM EST up reply actions
There is not exactly a shortage of closers available right now. More like a glut.
Not all are great, but all of them are also not Matt Capps, so they got that goin for ’em.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
I doubt the Twins can allow themselves to give Capps a shot at the closer role
Independent of if they sign him or not (which, if he can be had for a low price, I might be partial to for the 6th/7th inning.
by twinscrazy_german on Nov 22, 2011 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
Perk was getting hit hard at the end
If the team signs someone else to close, you can always move Perk into that spot later if the chosen guy fails.
Steve Goodman lives.
by twinsbrewer on Nov 22, 2011 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
I have a feeling K-Rod is going to be our closer
by RaysOfHope on Nov 22, 2011 12:00 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I shudder at that thought
Strippers do nothing for me. I like a strong, salt of the Earth, self-possessed woman at the top of her field. Your Steffi Grafs, your Sheryl Swoopeses, but I will take a free breakfast buffet anytime, anyplace.
by Spinyourhead on Nov 22, 2011 12:00 AM EST up reply actions
Why K-Rod is very solid, ive always liked him
by RaysOfHope on Nov 22, 2011 12:12 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
K-Rod is old and while a solid set-up guy, I'd only bring him in if it was CHEAP
and he’d still probably split save chances at best, with Perk
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 22, 2011 6:24 AM EST up reply actions
How is in his prime "old"?
As Jesse pointed out in the story you just commented on, he’s 29 years old. 2011 will be his age 30 season. He’s not over the hill.
I wouldn't mind him at a reasonable price
However many teams still overpay for the “proven closer” label, so unless the market for him is depressed due to his behavior with the Mets, I’m not sure how much of a bargain he will be.
Thats what I meant
If his asking price isnt high then sure ill take him, how does 2/16 sound?
by RaysOfHope on Nov 22, 2011 1:02 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'd take Perk
As the closer – or even Rauch for that matter. He did a decent job when asked of him. Heck even alternating between perk and rauch for closing duties would be just fine with me.
by Black Metallic on Nov 22, 2011 12:18 AM EST reply actions
Mr. Pohlad, is that you?
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
#OccupyTwinkieTown
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Nov 22, 2011 12:34 AM EST up reply actions
No
Time and time again people have fallen into the proven closer/proven reliever trap.
Joe Nathan was a solid but unspectactular 28 year old pitcher for the Giants (2.3 WAR, 4.12 ERA over 4 seasons in the NL) Mariano Rivera was a failed starter. Trevor Hoffman was a Shortstop.
I’m not trying to delve too deeply into a bunch of anecdotes, but the key to bullpen development isn’t about throwing big money at a Nathan (who we got exactly 1 dominating season out of a 3 year deal) or K-Rod or Francisco Cordero.
Particularly with the new compensation rules, Load up on cheap hard throwing relievers, have a fair try-out in spring training and work from there. We survived losing Aguilera, Guardado, Hawkins and we’ll survive losing Nathan and hopefully Capps.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/texas-rangers-sign-joe-nathan-world-raises-brow/
Agreed
What if Joe Nathan hit is decline? Then it is the Rangers that look stupid because they managed to blow $14 million on a position that should have been filled through their minor league system or by signing somebody on the super cheap.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
Champagne SuperTolbert Saves the day!!!
I just
don’t get why anyone is suggesting that we spend enough money to gap our entire bullpen for a brand name guy like Bell, Madsen or Lidge.
We’ve got much more important positions to solidify 1st and i’d rather have a RF like Willingham rather than a closer we’re going to use for 50 innings.
Agreed!
Josh Willingham, Michael Wuertz and George Sherrill > Joe Nathan
For the 7 million Ryan should sign Willingham and two other relievers.
That won't exactly be happening.
"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."
Kind of odd I thought he wanted to go somewhere and close....
I doubt he’ll close for the Rangers.
As for the Twins, it has to be Perkins. He’ll be given a shot at least in the beginning of the season. Although, I am opposed to having the current best reliever only be allowed to close, but hey that’s just me.
Remember, remember the seventh of November.
Scratch that I just read the story
Feliz to the rotation – my bad
Remember, remember the seventh of November.
Sign Airwolf!
He might be better used as a starter though, with his endurance he would be an innings machine.
"Nobody wants to hear me rap." - Joe Mauer
"The more toppings a man has on his pizza, I believe the more manly he is." - Herman Cain
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Nov 22, 2011 12:37 AM EST reply actions
Mark Prior
Then we can have both of the top 2 picks from that draft
by RaysOfHope on Nov 22, 2011 1:01 AM EST via mobile reply actions
If I was
going to pick an injury riddled project on the cheap, i’d try Harden out of the pen first.
There's your answer
I sign Harden for bullpen work with incentives if he wins the closer role and gets 30 saves, and more if he wins awards such as comeback player of the year, Cy Young, MVP, World Series MVP, ALCS MVP, All-Star MVP (For holding the NL to a tie game in the 9th after coming in with the bases loaded and Brian Wilson warming up in case they take the lead, and the AL ekes out the walkoff run.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
Champagne SuperTolbert Saves the day!!!
That last one is a pretty specific incentive
If Brian Wilson isn’t warming up, does he still get the bonus?
by ColossusOfRhode on Nov 22, 2011 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
Harden gets the bonus for being All-Star MVP
Brian Wilson should be getting the chance to play Fidel Castro on Broadway. The production is called El Revolution.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
Champagne SuperTolbert Saves the day!!!
Didn't read any prior comments...
But as I’ve been saying, give Perkins and/or Oliveros the chance to close. Cheap! The stupid Saves stat is… well… stupid.
Ok, off to sleep before I say anything more stupid than I already have been saying for more than 2 months.
Also Brad Lidge.....
BUT my gut tells me the Twins will stay away from FA market and make a small trade to bring in a guy that could get save chances down the line, and maybe if they do sign someone it will be a low cost midle inning guy like Michael Wuertz and then Hand Perkins the early season save oppurtunities since they’ll probably be a rare thing anyways.
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 22, 2011 6:22 AM EST reply actions
We have bigger issues than "who closes" ...
A team that lost 99 games doesn’t get appreciably better by having a closer who’s successful 95% of the time vs 85% of the time.
We have to get better at so many positions …..
True
But the Twins had so many blown saves in 2011 that we could be talking about a 85 loss team instead of a 99 loss one.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
Champagne SuperTolbert Saves the day!!!
well
we’re going to need relievers to replace the innings that Capps (65.2), Nathan (44.2) Hoey (24.2) Hughes (12.2) threw minimum.
Why did Slama not get a longer look last season?
Twins just haven't liked him
He’s obviously put up the stats in AAA. He was also hurt at the end of last year.
"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."
yeah
but if there was ever a season to find out whether he’s the real deal or not (7 career MLB innings for a guy who’s averaged 12.2 SO/9 with a 2.08 ERA in the minors) wasn’t it last year?
I’m not going to predict that he would have magically become Joe Nathan or anything, but what did we have to lose?
I think he would have gotten a shot in the last 40 games or so
But then he had the forearm injury.
"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."
Right
But what I am saying is that quite a few of our losses were tied to the blown save, but the fact remains is that we need to replace 148.2 innings of work and maybe more.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
Champagne SuperTolbert Saves the day!!!
My vote
Swarzak, Manship, Slowey, or Zumaya.
by AM. on Nov 22, 2011 7:28 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Slowey needs 3 innings to warm up.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
#OccupyTwinkieTown
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Nov 22, 2011 9:14 AM EST up reply actions
LOL @ Manship
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 22, 2011 5:09 PM EST up reply actions
My point is
Just about anyone can be turned into a closer and get you 85%.
by AM. on Nov 24, 2011 6:45 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don't think it's 85%
Capps was at 60% last year (if you count the games he blew twice). That’s about as bad as it gets, though. Guys who dip below that threshold get moved out of the closer role.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Watching Capps last year proved to me
That “just about anyone” can’t be a closer. “Useless stat” or not, losing a 3 run lead in the 9th pretty much sucks.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
#OccupyTwinkieTown
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Nov 24, 2011 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
Jesse, important word usage point: Dapple vs. dabble.
Just remember, “Tears dribbled from his eyes and dappled his checks after Nathan dabbled with a knuckleball to Rob Dibble, resulting in a double.”
by Luke in MN on Nov 22, 2011 8:12 AM EST reply actions 6 recs
Nice Rhyme Luke.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
Champagne SuperTolbert Saves the day!!!
The price for relievers got higher in $$
But no more draft pick compensation for relief pitchers. That change is effective NOW.
Perkins is cost controlled and will have to go through arbitration. It is in the Twins financial interest to keep him away from 3 run save opportunities that do nothing but inflate his arbitration award. Go sign a veteran reliever to close ballgames. Then sign another one and two starting pitchers.
The Twins are willing to spend $$ for a shutdown reliever. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take a run at Heath Bell.
Good read.
Didn’t realize there were so many options. Most are probably not realistic. Bell wants to play on the west coast, but may end up in Boston. You can rule him out because I doubt he goes to Minnesota when he has prefered to play for some bad SD teams rather than relocate.
I’d love to either sign Broxton or trade for Street. These options will probably be to expensive in dollars or prospects for the Twins front office. Now we know why the Front Office was so high on bringing back Capps. If I were to bet, I’d think either Perkins fills the role or Capps is resigned to close. Maybe, maybe, maybe the Twins trade for Bailey from Oakland. The problem is what do we trade? I don’t think we have anything anyone wants that is expendable.
Please Twins Front Office, suprise me. Last thing I want to see is Perkins closing, which further dilutes our barren bullpen. Let me read up on some of the 15-30 minor league pitchers that Jon Marthaler mentioned we’ve signed so that I can pick out a favorite or two to make the final 25 man roster.
I have wanted the Twins to rescue Seth Smith ...
Street and Smith for Pavano and Benson/Revere ???
I'd do this trade as well although for me something like
Pavano, Angel Morales, and Swarzak and Mijares for Street and SMith
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 22, 2011 5:10 PM EST up reply actions
I'd give up Revere before Morales/Swarzak/Mijares....
in a heartbeat.
"The problem is what do we trade?"
Nick Blackburn
he and Pavano would be good starts...
sign Harden and Bedard, and maybe even one other “vet” for depth with Liriano/Baker/Slowey/Hendriks, and turn Pavano and Blackburn into good relief options via trade and save some money.
Liriano, Harden and Bedard? Man, you really love pitchers made out of glass, don't you?
Risk/reward is one thing, but yikes.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
Something tells me
that Pavano and Blackburn assets our Front Office view as expendable. Pavano is the most dependable starter in the rotation (debatable). Blackburn shows up for big games and signed a deal not too long ago, which actually could be beneficial to a team interested.
If you are going to deal one or both, who is in your rotation? Right now it looks like Pavano, Liriano, Baker (1,2,3 take your pick at the order) then Blackburn and I’m not even sure who I’d put in the last spot. Slowey? If you deal Pav or Blackburn you just made a weakness worse, unless you sign free agents. I’m all aboard with signing Harden and/or Berdard but is the Twins Front Office? I think they will try to get by riding out the same horses. Just trying to be realistic, but I don’t anticipate a splurge on SP.
Blackburn is one of the worst starters in all of baseball...
Pavano is overrated and overpaid and can be replaced by guys like Slowey and Hendriks. Bedard/Harden are risks, absolutely, but I like the school of thought of trying to get 200IP out of those 2 combined. Coupled with a couple of very good pitchers in Liriano/Baker, that’s a start. Then you put the saved money on Pavano/Blackburn (and cheap relievers we get for them) into the rest of the rotation and offense and you’ve got a pretty solid group.
I like the idea also.
I hope we do make moves to get Bedard and Harden. Or at least one of them. Pavano is overrated and Baker did look great when he was healthy. I just don’t see them dealing Pavano and leaving more question marks in the rotation. With Blackburn, if he is expendable, since he" is one of the worst starters in baseball", what do you think other teams are going to give up for him?
I think he could be a capable #5 starter on an NL club...
so him for an “upside” reliever would make sense IMO.
Pavano has trade value, presumably, but who would seriously be interested in Blackburn? I don’t see his $$ being saveable.
by tobynotjason on Nov 22, 2011 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
So, again, how does that save his contract $$?
by tobynotjason on Nov 22, 2011 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
You may be able to save some
You can’t save all of it.
i agree we may have to foot some of the bill...
but we’d still be coming out of it ahead. I don’t want to see Blackburn starting games for this team anymore, and I don’t think he makes much sense in relief with his “stuff”. For instance:
Route A: Blackburn as reliever (and not a good one) for the next 2 years; signing 1 reliever for $3M/this year. Total cost: $13.25M
Route B: Blackburn traded for a decent reliever; let’s say a reliever making $3M this year, and we kick in $3M or so of Blackburn’s contract. Total cost: $6M.
That’s a big win for us. And gives us more flexibility next year.
That’s (B is) different than trading him for “an expensive, mediocre reliever”. My point was, how do you unload net dollars when you have something nobody else wants? Trading him for somebody MORE expensive (obviously) costs more money, so that doesn’t help anything. Best case is maybe you find someone who needs to dump salary, has somebody decent headed into free agency after 2012 and who isn’t looking to contend. But good luck with that. No organization is actually going to trade, well, anything with the end-goal “obtain Nick Blackburn,” are they?
by tobynotjason on Nov 24, 2011 10:15 PM EST up reply actions
i don't know...
I don’t think it has to be some extremely overpaid reliever. I think at least 1 NL team (and 1 is all it takes) would take Blackburn and part of his contract for one of their relievers.
I don’t see it, but Ed Wade and Ned Colletti exist, so… Maybe my seething hatred for the Twins PR boosterism of Blackburn’s gamer-ism makes him seem worse/less marketable than he actually is.
by tobynotjason on Nov 25, 2011 12:54 AM EST up reply actions
Not a believer in Perkins yet
He had a nice season until August (with a stint on the DL), but fell off after that. I would be in favor of acquiring a closer. Yes, the saves stat is way overrated, but the comfort of knowing that you have a near 100% chance of winning if you get to the ninth is worth something.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Nov 22, 2011 9:22 AM EST reply actions
Perkins hasn't proven himself in my opinion
I like him as an 8th inning guy.
The beard abides.
by Jason Kubel's Beard on Nov 22, 2011 9:24 AM EST reply actions
Nobody proves themselves
Until they get their shot at closing. I prefer Perkins as the “tough situation” arm, but I guess he would be a solid closer.
by SD Twins Fan on Nov 22, 2011 10:29 AM EST up reply actions
Don't Over-Pay!
We have been spoiled with Joe Nathan since his arrival in 2004, so no one is going to come in and replace what he did. The worst decision would be to commit 8-11 million dollars a year to a closer (Madson, Bell, Lidge, Francisco, Rodriguez or Boxton).
The better decision would be to strengthen the bullpen as a whole, instead of focusing on just the closer’s spot. Bring back Capps (he is better than 2011), and sign a few low cost guys (Dotel, Wuertz, Rauch, Coffey, Qualls, Wheeler, Zumaya). I would rather have 3 good pitchers at 8-10 million, than 1 closer at 8-10 million.
by NickL1538 on Nov 22, 2011 10:28 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
He made 7 mio last year, so if anything, we should try to chop hiis salary in half, but that might be the most I would be willing to give hime
by twinscrazy_german on Nov 22, 2011 10:36 AM EST up reply actions
same here, if he wants more than 3.5 MM goodbye Matt Capps
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 22, 2011 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
especially now that we get a draft pick for him...
let him walk. Plenty of better, cheaper options than him, and we gain a supplemental pick. No point in bringing him back at all.
Pioneer Press was pushing that the Twins are going hard after Capps
That’s nonsensical. If you get a free 1st round draft pick for getting rid of a middle reliever you do it. There are at least a dozen other guys available who can provide what they will get from Capps
I read that
It gave me heartburn. I agree, it makes no sense, especially now that they can get more for him in picks than he’s worth to them without offering arbitration.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Agreed...
If it isn’t a stud that we want here for the next 5 years then let’s get a few pitchers that we can count on for 50+ solid innings. We not only have a closer issue but we have general depth issues… let’s get the depth problem fixed and figure out the rest later.
also...
The Twins need to give a few young guys in the organization (Waldrop, Gutierrez, Robertson, Guerra, Oliveros) a shot. They are the cheapest options available and should be given a chance over guys we know aren’t cutting it (Mijares, Dumatrait, Burnett, Gray, Vasquez, Manship, Hoey)
Not sure I agree about bringing back Capps
But that depends on price and role.
Otherwise, I agree 1005 with the rest of this.
Just wondering......
…if losing Nathan had happened on Bill Smith’s watch, how would we have reacted?
The beard abides.
by Jason Kubel's Beard on Nov 22, 2011 11:43 AM EST reply actions
Would we know that payroll would be down to around $100 M in that scenerio?
"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."
I don't know
would we be calling for Bill Smith’s head? (probably)
I have really mixed emotions about Joe leaving. Is he worth $7 million? Maybe? Can he regain his old dominance? Maybe. Does anyone know which direction the Twins are headed? Another maybe…
The beard abides.
by Jason Kubel's Beard on Nov 22, 2011 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
well...
I think payroll will be about what it was last year (Dave St. Peter’s interview was telling). And supposedly the Twins did offer Nathan around the range. He just wanted to go to a team that has been in the WS for the last 2 years, and doesn’t look to stop soon, with $80M/yr in TV revenue about to kick in.
Can’t blame him.
That is until the Yankees buy CBS and turn Friday nights into Yankees Night in America
With a day game on Saturday.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
Champagne SuperTolbert Saves the day!!!
Nathan
is going to make as much money as we might have offered for a team that’s a championship contender in his home state.
There’s a reason that he didn’t get a counteroffer from the Twins.
Yup
Joe Nathan didn’t prove to be his old self for much of last season, that was until Gardy was forced to put him back in that role. He struggled at the start, and his first save chance was almost blown. Then after some poor efforts by Nathan, Gardy turned to Matt Capps who also blew games for the Twins. The only truly consistent pitcher we had out of the bullpen exclusively was Glen Perkins. That is until he got hurt.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
Champagne SuperTolbert Saves the day!!!
Blame Joe Mauer
Nathan got tired of hearing people say “Joe” and then realize they weren’t talking about him.
I think we are better off loading up on non-closer bullpen arms
Between a few free agents/trades (though no names come to mind which largely negates this argument) and what we have in our minors, I think it’s crazy for a team of this (low) caliber to pay a saves premium for almost anyone listed above. If they come cheap make it work, otherwise try to target a few guys via trade or roll with our not quite ready minor league guys. I think a lot has to change for our bullpen to be the difference between us winning and losing this year. But I’d love to be proven wrong.
Worked pretty well for Tampa last year, but generally, not a recipe for success.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
I just don't think we are good enough in other aspects of the game to get too worked up over having a "closer"
But that might just be my funk from Nathan leaving talking. :)
I hope Terry can remember the "closing experience" the last 2 closers of his first regime had
Eddie Guardado – 30 saves before becoming the full time closer.
Joe Nathan – 1 save
Don’t overpay for saves.
"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."
Agreed.
I think it was Ugeth Urbina that offseason that wanted the Twins to sign him to a huge contract, and when they said no thanks, Urbina said they’d be screwed and rue the day…on the contrary, they got a lengthy, dominant run of Joe Nathan for their troubles.
And prior to that, Ryan constructed some dominating bullpens largely on the backs of failed starting pitching prospects with live arms: Guardado, Hawkins, Rincon, Romero…
So, I sense a pattern that Ryan is not only not afraid to build bullpens from no-names, but it’s also a strength of his (or at least that was the case during his last run).
Had this random thought...
the Rangers have now converted a reliever to a starter 3 years in a row (Wilson/Ogando/Feliz). We’ve talked a bit about Nathan becoming a starter in the past with his repertoire.
Won’t happen, but it would be funny if they made it 4 in 2013.
Oh, and from the twitters
Sounds like Rick Anderson was on KFAN and he was pretty high on Capps as a potential closer next year. Be smart, Terry. Please.
"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."
just another thing that makes you question Rick...
I mean, what Twins pitchers have really improved and/or risen to their talent under him? Not many IMO. And he’s had problems coaching players in a different mold than his philosophy (Garza/Lohse/Baker-high strikes/RA Dickey).
Santana says hi, but he would never admit that anyone helped him, let alone a pitching coach
Anderson does well squeezing what life is left out of sinker ball pitchers—Blackburn and Silva, e.g. He’s done OK with bullpen guys like Hawkins, Romero, Guardado, Nathan, Rincon, and Guerrier. That said, he just about ruined Crain.
His main weakness is trying to teach everybody to sink the ball and keep it down in the zone—The Bert Blyleven school of pitching. Though it works for guys with natural movement and good breaking stuff, it doesn’t work for everybody. Scott Baker is Exhibit A.
Slowey’s a mystery. When he was in the AFL, I thought he fit Anderson like a glove. He could spot the four seamer and he had a decent slider. But he came up with a great sinker in AZ. Since coming to the majors, though, we have not seen it much. His sinker tends now to be like Bakers’—in the seats.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
good stuff...
though I’d credit a lot of the success of Liriano and Santana to Bobby Cuellar.
you could argue...
that the Red Wings have a better coaching staff (Cuellar and Bruno) than the Twins right now. I’d like to see both of those guys up in the bigs.
And the answer is
Will Rick Anderson resign, or will Terry Ryan be looking for a new manager.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
Champagne SuperTolbert Saves the day!!!
You're like a scratched record.
Put a penny on the arm already.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
#OccupyTwinkieTown
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Nov 22, 2011 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
Rumored to be available in trade
Huston Street
Andrew Bailey
Brian Fuentes
Drew Storen
I still like the Slowey for Hanrahan trade idea but I think their stock has gone in different directions since last spring.
out of that I'd think Street would be the best option
Bailey would cost a lot, as would Stroren….
Also Grant Balfour could be avaibale from Oakland.
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 22, 2011 5:19 PM EST up reply actions
Grant is a nice option.
I’m not sure he is the best option, but I think he’d be a nice fit. I’m just not fond of trading for relief pitching. It always seems so risky.
Not giving the Twins a chance to match doesn't mean bad blood.
I don’t think this speaks to the organization’s relationship with Nathing beind marred or anything. -I just think that the Veep wants to win a World Series. The Raners are just a lot, lot closer to that than the Twins are right now. I don’t blame him for wanting to win.
I don't
I don’t really care if the Twins sign a closer. Hopefully they can sign a couple cheaper, solid bullpen arms (any number of guys on that list above would serve), then who actually closes can get sorted out later.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
I thought Perkins hated the Twins
I like the idea of Perkins in the closer role next season, but would he do it? I had always heard that there was bad blood with Perkins and the team coaches/mgmt. Isn’t he likely to go elsewhere when the opportunity presents itself?
by DuckDuckGrayDuck on Nov 22, 2011 2:23 PM EST reply actions
why wouldn't he do it?...
closers get paid more, so if he proves himself in the role, he’d stand to get a lot more money on the open market than as just a 7th/8th inning guy.
True
But he seen what happened to Matt Capps last year, and Perkins isn’t your top of the line pitcher. All he has going for him are three quality starts in 2009 and the setup role for much of 2011. Even if he does pitch well in 2012, somebody will be knocking on the door to give him a good deal.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
Champagne SuperTolbert Saves the day!!!
What happened to Matt Capps?
He was a closer for years, then he couldn’t cut it anymore.
How is Perkins in the same situation? He currently doesn’t have a lot of market value. As a closer, he can significantly increase his market value. If he fails as a closer, he’s back to the market value of a middle relief or set up guy, which is where he is now.
I don’t see the downside for him.
Capps lost his command
When you throw it down the middle, major league hitters hit it. When you throw 93 down the middle, major league hitters hit it out of the park.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Capps
was never that good.
He was a middling closer for a couple of putrid teams.
exactly...
hell, he was non-tendered the year before we got him by the freaking Pirates!
Thanks, but
My question was what is Jessy referring to that happens to Capps that carries a lesson for Perkins.
The bad blood is in the past
"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."
True
But it is still festering just like the bad blood between some fans and Joe Mauer.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
Champagne SuperTolbert Saves the day!!!
And how do you know that?
"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."
doncha know?
Jessy S. is Alan Parsons.
I don't know, but I've been told it's hard to run with the weight of gold,
'the other hand, I've heard it said, it's just as hard with the weight of lead.
by montanatwinsfan on Nov 22, 2011 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
Joe Mauer has the ability for bad blood?
Also, I am really a walrus.
by twinscrazy_german on Nov 22, 2011 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
I am the Eggman.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
#OccupyTwinkieTown
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Nov 22, 2011 6:30 PM EST up reply actions
How old is that crap, duckduckgrey duck probably a fan of other org. ?
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 22, 2011 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
I think they should take a look at David Aardsma
still a good closer who could be had much cheaper than Nathan or Bell.
first-worst-first?
Great idea...
Except he is expected to miss the first half of the season recovering from injury.
Now I'm really depressed...
Nathan leaving says he doesn’t see the Twins competing, and Ryan not signing him says the same. I don’t think they will go outside, but try to patch a bullpen together on the cheap from within the organization. I would hate to lose Perkins for those set up situations, but if they end up signing Mr Capps as closer, you will hear my screams wherever you dwell in Twinkietown, and I will be that much closer to changing my nom de plume to Rayzfan. Please somebody tell me that this FO hasn’t ruined a fun-as-all-get-out team in a couple short years!
The other teams could make trouble for us if they win. — Yogi Berra
I think realistically it's better for the franchise if...
…next year is rebuilding/retooling implementing new training/medical staff. Which is why I’m okay with not having a good closer at all next year. We won’t really be in a position to need one.
closer by committee or Perkins, Capps, Dotel combo....
I can see where the Twins may want to try a closer by committee. Perkins would be a good closer in some situations and Capps or a RH pitcher (Dotel) could be the platoon closer. How bout that for an answer?
Doofenschmirtz Evil, INC.
Phineas and Ferb
sounds good to me...
but Gardy’s not even close to smart enough to be able to manage it effectively.
I'm in a strange position...
1. I don’t value closers as much as many teams seem to. Stupid Saves stat. I consider Perkins getting up in the 7th or 8th with runners on base and the game on the line more valuable than Nathan starting a fresh frame in the 9th. But,
2. I understand that some relief pitchers do better when they have a defined role. I personally would be far more comfortable as a relief pitcher (not that I could come close to making the Majors) if I knew how I was going to be used.
If I were a closer I could sit out in the BP chewing on sunflower seeds, look up at the scoreboard in the 7th inning and see that we’re a couple runs ahead and know that I’d likely be used in the 9th, cool. I’d like that. Or, if were a long reliever and the starter threw a couple innings of bad, I’d probably get up and call Gardy rather than wait for the opposite.
3. And then, relief pitchers are just… relief pitchers. They play in fewer innings than an injured Justin Morneau plays in games. Plus, they’re chaotic. Good one year, disaster the next (or the opposite… e.g., Crain, Perkins).
Let Perkins try the closer spot, in my opinion. His splits are pretty even, he can strike guys out, and he’s from Minnesota. It’s not worth spending serious money on that position right now. Also, let Oliveros compete for the job (yes, I’m still on that). If they sign a couple other relievers such as Dotel (as mentioned), throw them into the mix too. Just don’t give them closer pay.
by spanspanspan on Nov 23, 2011 6:50 PM EST up reply actions
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