State of Play: Monday, November 7

by Jon Marthaler on Nov 7, 2011 9:00 AM EST in News

It's the first Monday in November. Your hangovers, both figurative and literal, have likely faded from a 99-loss 2011. So let's look at the news from last week, and the stories we'll be tracking all off-season:

* Neither Joe Mauer nor Justin Morneau has been run over by a taxi or injured by their breakfast. Let's face it: we can argue about other moves all we want, but the Twins are built on Mauer and Morneau. If they don't produce, it doesn't matter who else the Twins sign or don't sign. And step one is to get both guys healthy.

* There aren't any important dates coming up this week. November 23rd is the last day for clubs to offer arbitration to Type A and B free agents; that's probably the next important date. The Twins have two Type A free agents in Michael Cuddyer and Matt Capps, and one Type B in Jason Kubel.

* Michael Cuddyer is one of the prettiest girls at the free agent dance. The Phillies are in hot pursuit. And according to Phil Mackey, even if the Twins make him the best offer, Cuddyer won't necessarily return to Minnesota. The team will likely offer Cuddyer arbitration; the Phillies have the last pick in the draft, #31 in the first round, so if Philadelphia signs him the Twins will get two picks in the 31-40 range. This is not necessarily a bad thing, since the Twins also have pick #2 and will have to pony up big bucks to sign whoever they pick there.

* Joe Nathan wants to be a closer, and Jason Kubel (mumble mumble mumble). The Twins need a closer and Nathan needs a team, and to me, that could end up being a good fit. Meanwhile, we haven't heard much of anything from Jason Kubel or about Jason Kubel, which given that Kubel hates talking to people probably isn't surprising.

* We can probably ignore Matt Capps from now on. Capps is the Twins' fourth free agent, but the team would rather pretend the whole thing never happened.

* The Twins' front-office "inner circle" is going to need a bigger table around which to meet. The team's trying to bring back former assistant GM Wayne Krivsky, according to Joe Christensen. The team also denied the Orioles permission to talk to VP of Player Personnel Mike Radcliff for their GM job. You can look at this one of two ways:

Continuity is good, and an inner circle of Krivsky, Radcliff, GM Bill Smith, assistant GM Rob Antony, and former GM Terry Ryan is as high on continuity as you're going to get.
That farm system's kind of barren, the team lost 99 games last year, and those five guys are responsible for putting all of that together.

You pick which one you want.

* Hey, more guys to pitch a nice gentle batting practice! Your newest Twins are Jeff Gray and Matt Maloney. Neither strikes many guys out or really showed the ability to not get hammered in 2011. They'll fit right in!

* Let's go over the arbitration-eligibles just one more time. Glen Perkins and Francisco Liriano are probably no-doubt to be offered. Alexi Casilla is a little bit of a question mark. Jose Mijares is a big (ha!) question mark. Phil Dumatrait, Matt Tolbert, and Jason Repko can all be more or less ignored. And then there's Kevin Slowey. Make your hipster jokes while you can, because I have to imagine the team will just cut him loose.

* Welcome back, Tom Brunansky. The former Twins right fielder is the new Rochester hitting coach. The organization has yet to hire a new Triple-A manager.

Tracking This Week

Will Cuddyer, Kubel, or Nathan sign elsewhere?
Will the Twins make a move for a backup catcher or a middle infielder of some kind? Phil Mackey says they haven't talked to Ryan Doumit or Clint Barmes yet.
Can we convince Joe Mauer not to buy sharp cereals, such as Cheerios, so he doesn't hurt himself?

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Comments

I hope

Cuddy didnt watch the World Series and see LNP win….otherwise that could be the reason he flies

"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have"
Thomas Jefferson

by RileysCannibalJct on Nov 7, 2011 9:04 AM EST reply actions

OK, Let's rewind a year.

Were we really so wrong to be thinking in Nov. 2010, that the Twinkies had a legitimate chance to challenge in the playoffs?
And other than losing Delmon (and half the bullpen, and now almost certainly Cuddy) what has changed?
I’m just a starry eyed fan (for 50years) so I need the insights of those who are more in tune to talent (but not the payroll parsing buzzkills)

by Theo77 on Nov 7, 2011 9:50 AM EST reply actions

I'll be waxing positive about the team later this week.

by Jesse on Nov 7, 2011 11:11 AM EST up reply actions

We were wrong about some things

Or at least I was. I was wrong to again go into the year hoping Liriano could pull it all together and finally become an ace. Another year gone by, and another year of evidence that he can’t.

I was wrong in thinking that maybe Nishi (whom I hadn’t seen play) could step in immediately and provide an adequate replacement for Hudson (even though I thought we should have kept Hudson and Nishi was likely a small downgrade). Now I’ve seen Nishi and think he probably needs some time in AAA where he can hopefully develop into the guy we thought we were getting.

I was wrong in hoping the Delmon could produce the way he did the year before.

I was wrong in thinking we could patch together the bullpen on the cheap.

I was right that Casilla just isn’t an everyday big leaguer, but the front office was wrong.

Anyway, injuries were the biggest problem last year, but they weren’t the only problem, and I, at least, was probably too optimistic last year.

by amiller92 on Nov 7, 2011 12:16 PM EST up reply actions

Not wrong

I don’t think we were wrong a year ago to think we could challenge for the playoffs again. There were a few blatant question marks that everyone knew: Nathan & Morneau’s health, bullpen depth, and a middle infield hole. Those were the obvious question marks, and it seemed reasonable that the front office could find adequate answers to those issues or at least mitigate the risks. Then it turned out there were a lot more hidden issues, mostly having to do with player regression or off-season injury issues (amiller92 has a good enumeration above). Additionally, I think a careful analysis of 2010 will show that the Twins played a bit worse than their record indicated. I looked at run differential (not perfect, but a start), and the Twins probably won 4-5 more games in 2010 than they probably should have.

This November, we have all the same question marks we had last year: Morneau’s health, bullpen depth and middle infield holes. And we have a whole slew of new issues to deal with! It doesn’t feel like the team is moving in the right direction. I’m excited to read Jesse’s positive thoughts later this week. :)

by markos on Nov 7, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions

Things we were wrong about:

1) Morneau would be healthy and productive (he was neither)
2) Mauer would be healthy (he was reasonably productive after he came off the DL)
3) Span would be healthy (his productivity problems were injury-related)
4) Kubel would be healthy and productive
5) Nishi would be healthy and not terrible
6) Casilla would be healthy and not terrible
7) Capps would be a functional closer
8) A non-closer who throws with his right arm would provide any value at all out of the bullpen
9) Liriano would replicate his 2010 success (VERY wrong on this one)
10) Pavano would replicate his 2010 success (not widely accepted by stat-heads)
11) Valencia would replicate his 2010 success
12) Baker would be healthy (ha ha ha ha ha ha ha)
13) The Twins wouldn’t miss Punto’s productivity

Most of those were fairly reasonable assumptions, and many of them are at least somewhat reasonable to make again.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Nov 7, 2011 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

RE: Brunansky

The Twins had better not even think about replacing him midseason with the former manager of the Lancaster Barnstormers. That would be a total pisser.

by RandBall's Stu on Nov 7, 2011 11:00 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

Hahaha

As soon as I read “Brunansky” and “replacing him midseason” I knew that link was going to be for Tom Herr….. Still recovering from that one…

The beard abides.

by Jason Kubel's Beard on Nov 7, 2011 12:37 PM EST up reply actions

Same here

And that didn’t make it any less funny.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Nov 7, 2011 12:58 PM EST up reply actions

That was the first trade that ever upset me

My dad sat me down to explain that I was going to need a new favorite Twin. I was devastated… the crushing lessons of childhood: ballplayers are transient.

by ColossusOfRhode on Nov 7, 2011 1:40 PM EST up reply actions

Cap'n Crunch cuts the roof of your mouth.

Lookout, Baby Jesus!

WFTDA Championship Tournament: Minnesota RollerGirls vs Charm City Roller Girls - Friday 11/11 at 3:00 pm central. Broadcast online at derbyaccess.com

by Flip27 on Nov 7, 2011 11:26 AM EST reply actions

This can't be said for sure

the Phillies have the last pick in the draft, #31 in the first round, so if Philadelphia signs him the Twins will get two picks in the 31-40 range.

Especially of the Phillies, but even other teams. If more than one type A is signed (by whomever signs Cuddy), the Twins may not get the first round pick. Sorry fer picking nits.

by archie2227 on Nov 7, 2011 1:12 PM EST reply actions

This is probably under the assumption that Cuddy signs fairly quickly

There are rumblings that they are already courting him heavily, so it’s not that unreasonable. Also, I haven’t heard whether the Phillies are considering any other Type A free agents, so it may not be likely that they forfeit more than one pick.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Nov 7, 2011 2:11 PM EST up reply actions

Draft picks are also a commodity,

and the Phillies will be cognisant of how many picks they’ll be giving away. Even the Phillies won’t be willing to let their first three picks go to someone else this season.

by Jesse on Nov 7, 2011 2:17 PM EST up reply actions