Video: Twins Introduce Terry Ryan as Interim GM
Here's a clip from today's press conference. Terry Ryan and Dave St. Peter seem pretty adamant that they would like to keep Bill Smith in the organization in some capacity. Is this the nicest firing ever?
7 months ago
Flip27
49 comments
0 recs |
Comments
Is this the nicest firing ever?
Well, Smith did work with these guys for 30+ years and was Ryan’s assistant for his last 12 (I think) years before becoming GM. Smith is hated on by fans but he clearly fit well into the Twins structure and, as a bean counter, was very helpful to the organization. And on the personal side, Smith is close to both Ryan and Krivisky. It makes sense that they’d want to keep him.
Perhaps
-But it seems pretty odd that they’d sack someone for doing a bad job and then praise him repeatedly in the press conference to announce it. I agree with them that the GM position was not a good fit, but this just feels like sugar-coating. He was removed from the role due to lackluster performance. I can’t imagine any employer of mine telling me how great I am when they demote/fire me.
It may be that this decision was partiually driven by Bill Smith himself, which would make more sense given the praises the organization is giving him. Regardless of who agreed to pull the trigger on this, though, the decision was made in large part because he was an ineffective general manager.
WFTDA Championship Tournament: Minnesota RollerGirls vs Charm City Roller Girls - Friday 11/11 at 3:00 pm central. Broadcast online for free at derbyaccess.com
This just kind of reminds me of little league condolences
“It’s OK that you didn’t get a hit today, Billy… Let’s all go to Dairy Queen, get a dilly bar, and forget our worries.”
WFTDA Championship Tournament: Minnesota RollerGirls vs Charm City Roller Girls - Friday 11/11 at 3:00 pm central. Broadcast online for free at derbyaccess.com
He's probably also under contract
Understandable that they’d want to get work out of Bill Smith since they’re paying him anyway.
by DJL44 on Nov 8, 2011 10:35 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
If they fired him
it won’t make any difference. Assuming he had a contract and wasn’t ‘at-will’ or on a handshake agreement, he’d have some sort of financial protection built into his contract in case of early termination. Demotion to, say, assistant VP wouldn’t change that.
It makes a difference to the Twins
Either Bill Smith gets paid to sit at home or he gets paid to continue working for the Twins. I imagine they would prefer the latter. It sounds like they think he is a diligent employee but the Peter Principle was at work here.
What I'm saying
If he had a contract paying him 1m/yr for through 2014 (totally making up numbers), there would be a clause in his contract that would grant him money for early termination (say $300,000 if fired in 2012, $250,000 in 2013, something like that). After they fired him, they have to pay him that money. If they hire him back as a VP (or whatever) at $100,000/yr, they don’t get to subtract that money from his termination clause (unless he agrees to that in his new employment contract).
"Philosophical differences"
The fact that they’re trying to keep Bill Smith in the Twins organization makes me wonder what those differences are.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
#OccupyTwinkieTown
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Nov 8, 2011 9:56 AM EST reply actions
Bill Smith wanted to spend money
Pohlads don’t like spending money.
by DJL44 on Nov 8, 2011 10:36 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Better to jettison him in that case.
I don’t think that’s it.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
#OccupyTwinkieTown
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Nov 8, 2011 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
Bill Smith wanted to spend money on relievers/veterans
Pohlads wanted to spend money effectively on future stars not bullpen fodder and aging sluggers.
*fixed
www.baseballmoves.com
That's not true
I get the Smith bashing but c’mon. Smith let a lot of useful pen arms go (Crain, Guerrier, Reyes, Rauch, etc) rather than spend money on them, with the exception of Nathan (who he let go now). He also didn’t bring in many veteran stopgaps like Ryan used to (unless you want to argue against Pavano’s 2yr 16.5m deal). And he locked up a lot of our talent in decent contracts during their prime years – Morneau and Cuddy (locked up through age 32), Span (31), Baker (31), Kubel (29) etc. Smith also focused a lot more on international signings (hello Sano!) and spent more on the drafts, going over slot on several of our picks (something Ryan very rarely did).
Besides injuries, most of the 2011 fiasco was due to the Capps trade
Not only did we lose the only capable backup we had at catcher, we gained a heavy payroll obligation, preventing us from keeping JJ Hardy. This, in turn, forced him try a desperate measure in acquiring Nishioka, whose money could have been used to retain two of Crain, Rauch, etc. The Capps trade started a chain reaction that crippled the team.
He couldn’t in good conscience rent a closer using his top major-league ready prospect. So he convinced himself that Capps option evened the scales. In reality, that just made the trade worse.
By trying to save playoff hopes in 2010, he doomed the team in 2011.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I would disagree
slightly. I think, in order, the biggest problems this year were
1) injuries
2) subpar play by Young
3) subpar pitching by Mijares and Burnett
I really think the Twins thought that Mijares and Burnett could step up and (cheaply) strengthen the pen. That wasn’t a bad thought. Mijares has been huge for us at times, Burnett dominated after being put into the pen in the minors. If those two pitched up to expectations, our pen was a whole lot better. Young never got going and also had injury problems.
Capps added to our costs but I think Hardy was gone either way. The coaching staff didn’t want him. My understanding is that there is a difference between payroll and international budget for all teams (ESPN had a big article on it a few years back after the Sox spent 50m on DiceK) and aren’t usually mixed. So Nishi’s salary is half of what Hardy would’ve recieved which is the only number that matters for payroll (you could argue that Nishi prevented us from spending big in Latin America this year). As for resigning Crain/Guerrier etc, the problem wasn’t the salary, it was the years.
But my response to Fenam was mostly about where Smith, over four years, put his money. It wasn’t generally into vets/bullpen arms.
I'll grant you injuries
But I’m with cmath on Capps/Ramos. I feel Capps/Hardy was an either or and the Twins made a disastrous choice. Playing crude WAR games on bb-ref Hardy + Ramos would have been an 11.5 win upgrade over Nishi/Plouffe + Butera. That’s insane. Yeah, you can’t really use WAR exactly like that, but it’s a large enough difference to note.
Not sure how this turned into a Capps/Ramos discussion
As to the trade however, I wrote this elsewhere –
“I think he gets too much blame for the Capps/Ramos trade – the team’s bullpen and rotation were in a death spiral, the team lost 10games in the standings in a month and Ramos was not doing well in AAA. Comparisons to Miguel Olivo were starting to come out and BA dropped him over 30 spots on their next rankings. His value was falling almost as fast as the Twins were in the standings. Yeah, it looks bad in hindsight but the trade was rated positively by both Jim Callis and John Sickels.
In any event, I think Smith’s lack of scouting ability hurt him more than he thought it would. The Twins decision makers were often divided on issues (some thought Nishi could play well in US, some didn’t. Some thought Hardy should be moved and the Twins should emphasize speed again. Some didn’t. Some think Hicks will be a star and should be untouchable, some didn’t. Some thought Pavano should come back, some didn’t). Smith didn’t have the background to give himself enough advice on those issues so would have to “guess” for lack of a better term."
I am not trying to defend Smith. I do think it’s fair that he doesn’t get blamed for things he didn’t to (like spending a lot on bullpen arms/vets) and he does deserve credit for some things (improving international approach). To some extent, I think Smith is being scapegoated (but he is the GM and the buck stops with him). Smith never acted alone when he made signings and trades. Others in the FO wanted Young over Quintin, Gardy wanted Hardy gone, somebody thought Nishi would play well over here. I think Smith’s firing was fair but I’m concerned it was done mostly to lower payroll. I don’t want Ryan coming in and thinking this is the small market, adorable, piranha Twins.
Everything turns into a Ramos discussion
That eliminates the need for critical thinking
by That'sWhatSheSaid on Nov 8, 2011 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
Double eye roll with a sneer
back at you
by That'sWhatSheSaid on Nov 8, 2011 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
Mijares and Burnett? Really?
Yeah, those guys were pretty bad. They also pitched less than 100 innings, combined. I have a hard time accepting that those 99 crappy innings hurt the team more than the complete black holes at shortstop, second base, and catcher (which you can chalk up to “injuries” somewhat, but bad planning led to an inadequate backup at catcher), or the collapse of the non-Baker starting rotation (who threw nearly 700 innings).
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
OK
Where did the team lose most of it’s offense? Morneau, Mauer, Span, Kubel, Thome, Casilla and Young all spent serious time on the DL. So, injuries are #1 problem. Because of injuries, we have blackhole at catcher.
I think the bullpen’s implosion hurt us more than lack of production from MI, you can disagree if you want. But traditionally, the pen has been an area of strength and our MI has always been …. iffy. (Even in 2010, Hardy started slow and missed a lot of games and Hudson fell off the planet in Sept). I think the biggest problem in our pen this year was two young power arms (Mijares and Burnett) not developing like past guys did. Slowey not taking to the pen and Capps problems when he was made closer (and Nathan’s struggles in the first half) were also problems. But if Mijares and Burnett pitched like they should have, our pen would have been a lot better, then and moving forward.
Starting pitching and Young were big problem areas. I thought (as did many) that Young was going to have a huge season after his 2010 campaign. Sadly, that didn’t happen, so I put him higher. Starting pitching could be a bigger problem but we still got quality starts about half the time, somehow. Liriano was a huge mess and Slowey was worse but Baker was solid and Pavano ate a lot of innings. But I thought our season was mostly killed by our offensive futility and not really on our starters.
Where you lose me
Is on Mijares and Burnett as young unknowns who were expected to develop. Mijares wasn’t all that much worse than the year before. We were hoping he could get back to where he was in 2009, but was it really a surprise that he couldn’t?
Meanwhile Burnett was almost exactly the same pitcher in 2011 as 2010. Was there ever a reason to expect anything else?
But I absolutely agree that our biggest problem was the abysmal offense.
It has to be more than that.
Every GM would like money to spend on proven talent. “Philisophical differences” says to me that it’s differences in organizational structure or in drafting/developing talent, or maybe what holes need to be filled.
WFTDA Championship Tournament: Minnesota RollerGirls vs Charm City Roller Girls - Friday 11/11 at 3:00 pm central. Broadcast online for free at derbyaccess.com
Hypothesis
Gleeman and Bonnes thought in their “Gleeman and the Geek” podcast that it probably was a question of whether to retool for 2012 or rebuild for another year or two down the road. Their guess was that Smith was in the “retool” camp and upper management was in the “rebuild” camp – their reasoning was that Smith likely felt he was on the hot seat and may have worried he couldn’t keep his job through a rebuild, and Ryan’s comment that payroll will be down next year seems to indicate that they’re pursuing a rebuild, since it would make it much more difficult to make free agent signings to compete this year.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
If Ryan = rebuild
Then there is no reason to re-sign Michael Cuddyer. We should also not be surprised to see trades of Carl Pavano,
Standing pat at the trade deadline might be another reason Bill Smith is gone and Ryan is back. Based on the Castillo trade I don’t think Ryan would have ever seen this ballclub as a contender.
Yeah
I think Smiths biggest mistake was not trading Cuddy (and others) at the deadline. Many teams wanted his bat and were in real races. Mets got Wheeler for half a year of Beltran (who is more expensive than Cuddy). Huge mistake.
Lest ye forget, the Twins were pretty close to in the race at the deadline
Per baseball refernece, here’s the AC Central on 7/31/2011:
DET, 57-51
CLE, 53-52, 2.5 GB
CWS, 52-54, 4.0 GB
MIN, 50-58, 7.0 GB
KC, 46-62, 11.0 GB
I don’t blame a GM who has seen this team repeatedly post strong Augusts and Septembers to decide not to sell in this situation. The Twins didn’t fully collapse until right after the trade deadline; going 13-41 down the streach.
WFTDA Championship Tournament: Minnesota RollerGirls vs Charm City Roller Girls - Friday 11/11 at 3:00 pm central. Broadcast online for free at derbyaccess.com
That's a fair point
but they should have known where they stood during the 4 straight AL Central series in July, which ended with Det taking 3 of 4.
Joe C reported at that time that some in the FO wanted to move but Smith specifically was quoted as saying he was an optimist and didn’t want to give up on the season.
Not moving on the deadline has something to do with Smith's firing
As Kenny Rodgers (the singer) says “Know when to hold em’, Know when to fold em”. Smith gambled on winning a division title by holding his players, and lost bad. After the season the Pohlads asked Smith again if he is going to hold or fold and Smith again decided to hold. The Pohlads said “You shouda folded Billy. If you’re playing a poker game and you look around the table and and can’t tell who the sucker is, it’s you. Game over Billy”. The story ends with the old sherrif coming back to town to get rid of degenerate gamblers and bring back the “Twins Way”…or something like that.
Not just Pavano
Basically the entire pitching rotation should be on the trading block – Liriano’s in his last year of arbitration, Blackburn’s overpriced (although probably untradeable without eating his salary), Baker’s on his last contract year but has an option for 2013, and Slowey is almost certainly no longer in the Twins’ plans (although he also may not have much, if any, trade value).
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Only one of those guys has any trade value
Is Liriano, and I doubt he’s going anywhere.
Then again, I would have doubted that Smith was too.
I agree, as long as you come up with five or six good arms to start the year
Maybe a team will be willing to send us two guys on the cusp for a sure thing like Pavano. That’s a deal we should do.
The time to trade Liriano was last offseason. But if you recall, we all had brain spasms when someone suggested that. Now he’s not worth more than a distant prospect or a journeyman to a team willing to bet long on a change of scenery.
As you say, Blackburn has negative value. He’d be a good throw-in a la Brendan Harris, but he won’t bring us anything.
My sense is, Baker’s value is comparable to Pavano’s, maybe a tick above. Like Pavano, I wouldn’t trade him unless you can get two Liam Hendriks for him.
Slowey is like Liriano, except instead of a real prospect, we’re talking about a fringe player at best. The most likely scenario is he gets nontendered.
Supposing we traded everyone, we wouldn’t have a rotation. We’d have Swarzak, Duensing, Hendriks, and whatever we could get by trading everybody. That’s not Ryan’s style.
My guess is we keep Pavano, Liriano and Baker and hope they return to 2010 form. Blackburn will get a chance to compete for a rotation spot with Swarzak, and the others. If we trade a starter, it will be at the all-star break, when we can get maximal return. In the meantime, they can eat innings.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
We all thought the 2011 team was a contender
You don’t trade your ace if you want to contend. If the team is rebuilding they will have a different strategy.
I’d keep Liriano and try to build up his value for the trade deadline. He’s young enough that he could be part of a 2014 team if they both agree on a reasonable deal. I’d keep Slowey also and try to build him up. Pavano and Blackburn should both be gone.
I think both Liriano and Slowey have bounceback years...
In a huge way in Liriano’s case. This will be his first normal offseason since about 2006. Baker’s actually very good; but the elbow is a major concern.
Blackburn should have been cut or traded a year ago (reliever from an NL team?) and Pavano should be traded for salary concerns. Sign a vet with some semblance of upside (Bedard/Iwakuma/whoever) on a 1-year deal with a 2nd year option, and go with Liriano/Baker/vet/Slowey/Hendriks for this year.
And of course monitor the trade deadline for an available ace; Felix/Lincecum/Cain/Greinke all will probably become available in the near future.
Slowey could have a huge bounce
and still suck
by That'sWhatSheSaid on Nov 8, 2011 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
Liriano would have to be insane to stay here a minute longer than he has to.
If this comes up and I’m his agent, or his mom, I sit on him until he comes to his senses. He needs to go to a team that knows what to do with pitchers who strike people out.
Nobody
Is going to give us two guys on the cusp for Pavano, who is expensive and no better than a #3-4 pitcher in a good rotation.
And no, Baker and Pavano are not worth more in trade value than Liriano. They are veterans with limited upside whose main value is in eating innings. Liriano, still, is a guy whose upside is being a front of the rotation (1 or 2) guy.
Slowey’s trade value is zero. If nothing else, it looks like he will be freely available soon, but even if he wasn’t, he is a guy who couldn’t lock down a spot in the rotation for a 99 loss team.
I'm talking rebuild here
My guess is we keep Pavano, Liriano and Baker and hope they return to 2010 form. Blackburn will get a chance to compete for a rotation spot with Swarzak, and the others. If we trade a starter, it will be at the all-star break, when we can get maximal return. In the meantime, they can eat innings.
Liriano, maybe you wait until the deadline, if you think he bounces back big this year and drives his value up. Pavano, though, is a pretty established commodity, and I think the value you get from being able to plan the season without him outweighs the minimally higher value you’ll get (maybe) for him during the season. Whether I trade Baker would be determined by whether my rebuild plan looks like it will come to fruition in 2013 or later. If it’s later, he’s gone, too, unless I think I can sign him to a reasonable extension right now.
Supposing we traded everyone, we wouldn’t have a rotation. We’d have Swarzak, Duensing, Hendriks, and whatever we could get by trading everybody. That’s not Ryan’s style.
I’ve got two words for you: Ramon Ortiz. A veteran starter brought in on the cheap to provide a warm body for the starting rotation. If the Twins are planning a rebuild, there’s no point in holding onto guys who won’t be around by the time they’re ready to compete. You trade your tradeable assets and fill the rotation with minor leaguers to develop and el-cheapo free agents looking for a chance to rebuild their careers. If you strike gold with one or two of them, you’re that much closer to contending again.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
But they aren't tradeable
What do you really think you can get for Baker, and is it better than the difference between Baker and Ortiz? Baker’s got more than a few years left in his career, and he isn’t that expensive. So how do you make yourself better by getting rid of him unless you’re getting equal value back?
And do you really think you can trade Baker for a solid middle of the rotation starter or more? Or even a prospect that’s not too far from developing into a solid middle of the rotation starter? He seems like a piece you keep to me.
Pavano, on the other hand, is expensive and might be worth dumping for whatever just to free up the salary.
Rebuilding is not an instant process
What do you really think you can get for Baker, and is it better than the difference between Baker and Ortiz? Baker’s got more than a few years left in his career, and he isn’t that expensive. So how do you make yourself better by getting rid of him unless you’re getting equal value back?
Here’s the problem with holding onto Baker: If I’m planning on a rebuild that doesn’t come to fruition until 2014, he’s not part of it. He’s under contract for 2012 with an option for 2013… so what good is he in a two-year rebuilding process? Why pay a guy to put up quality innings for a losing team when you can trade him now for something that will help you when you expect to be good? Legit #2 starters like Baker don’t grow on trees – he’s easily the Twins pitcher with the most value, so if you’re punting on the next two seasons, he’s worth far more in trade than holding onto him. If you think he’ll still be good in 2014, you can sign him then as a free agent.
Note that all these comments are based on the idea of the Twins going into fairly substantial rebuild mode. If they’re going to try and find a way to cobble together spare parts on top of the current roster and try to knock off the Tigers next year, obviously you keep everyone, and if they’re just expecting one down year, you ditch Pavano and Liriano but hold onto Baker and see whether it’s worthwhile to pick up his option.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
I don't think they can punt 2013 yet
They can always deal Scott Baker later, no need to deal him now.
Baker's a damn good pitcher...
a solid #2 on a VERY good team when healthy. No use in trading him at all. Ditto for Liriano, who should bounce back in a big way this year with his first normal offseason of his major league career (innings, injury, etc.).
Slowey figures to be much more similar to the pitcher he’s been over his career than just what he was in 2011.
I wish I shared your optimism on Slowey
I just don’t see it. He’s never added that one out pitch to get a key strikeout the second or third time through the order. Contact, fly ball pitchers have a very tough time in the AL.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
But he's always been that pitcher
Why would he suddenly get worse with the same repertoire?
I don't think he'll get worse
But he’s been pretty bad of late. His ERA+ has only been above water in one of his seasons. And it cratered in 2011. I know his FIP has been OK, but I think that’s actually an anomaly.
I don’t want to go down a rat hole on the value of FIP, but, to me, the main value is in relation to other stats. For example, Greg Maddux had wild swings in his ERA from one year to the next, but his FIP was fairy consistent. This showed that he was fairly consistent, but his ERA fluctuations were mostly because of defense and luck. That’s a paradigm case.
When a pitcher consistently puts up a better FIP than his ERA, and the differential between them is also consistent, this, to me, is an anomaly. It can’t simply be luck. If he did it in front of good defenses and bad, it can’t simply be defense. Is there something about his peripherals that says his FIP is actually lower than his actual value? In Slowey’s case I see two things:
1. He’s extreme fly ball pitcher who gives up a lot of liners.
2. He gives up a lot of big innings.
FIP doesn’t segment balls in play, so a FB/LD pitcher will tend to have a low FIP relative to his ERA than a GB pitcher, all things considered. Also, in big innings, a higher percentage of runs get created from outs.
I’ve watched him closely for five years. And, you’re right, he is the same pitcher. That means we can’t expect him to get much better if he stays in this league. He might rebound somewhat in the NL, just because hitters won’t be used to him. But AL hitters know him well.
Guys have to make adjustments to get better. And he hasn’t. He won’t get much worse. But I don’t think a 60 OPS+ pitcher who has never given us more than 160 innings in one year is good enough to be even a fifth starter on this staff.
If he wasn’t due for a big raise through arbitration, I’d say, keep giving him chances. But a spot starter/long reliever is not worth $3 million.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I think it's a chicken or the egg...
FIP vs. ERA goes the other way too; ERA can just as easily be the anomalies and I guess that’s the side I take usually in his case, because our defenses (especially OF defense) have been fairly bad for a pitcher like Slowey over his tenure as a Twin. That should change starting this year, and definitely in 2013, as our 5-tool/defensive OF’s start coming. I’d like to give him a shot and see what he can do first. His trade value is low right now (not to the point of non-tendering) and we need arms. So I’d rather see what he can do first. If he does turn into the pitcher many think he can become, that’s huge for the Twins and they can either keep him or trade him at that point for a lot more value. If he doesn’t, his value doesn’t really change much from what it is now. For $3M and a needed rotation possibility that’s a worthwhile gamble to me right now. I think it’d be fairly stupid of the Twins to non-tender him as I think he’d easily get a better offer than $3M/1 year in FA.
























