Revere (Span) for Espinosa (Desmond)?
by ravenfly on Nov 9, 2011 7:50 PM EST
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PrintCourtesy of the latest from LEN3, our good friend and former Nationals GM Jim Bowden thinks that "Twins and Nationals have a trade match-up that makes too much sense..Twins need a SS (Desmond or Espinosa) & Nats need a CF (Span or Revere)."
Would any of those trades be good for us? More after the jump.
Quick refresh on the players involved (2012 baseball season age, last 3 years fWAR and PA, notes):
Denard Span - age 28 - fWAR 10 - PA 1692 (roughly 2.5 seasons)
- Under contract through 2014 at reasonable rates (escalating to $6.5M in 2014 with a $9M club option in '15)
- Well-rounded player, high OBP, good defense, good baserunning, little/no power
- concussion/injury recovery red flag
Ben Revere - age 24 - fWAR 1.8 - PA 511 (a bit under one full season)
- Less than a year of MLB service time, so very cheap
- Excellent defender due to extreme range, plus baserunning, serious questions about bat transitioning to MLB
- Really better suited to LF due to low arm strength
Danny Espinosa - age 25 - fWAR 4.0 - PA 770 (a little more than one full season)
- Just over a year of MLB service time, so quite cheap indeed
- Has only played two games at SS; UZR likes him as a roughly league-average defender at 2B
- The kid can hit and run; 21HR / 17SB in 2011 and MiLB stats to suggest it was no fluke. 104 wRC+ last year despite .292 BABIP
Ian Desmond - age 26 - fWAR 3.2 - PA 1302 (roughly two full seasons)
- Roughly two years of MLB service time, so pretty cheap
- UZR dislikes his fielding at SS; 2010 had awful error/good range but 2011 was both bad range/bad errors
- Mediocre bat so far in MLB (88/80 wRC+ in full MLB season) but showed promise in minors
- Fangraphs stats <3 his baserunning like it stood outside their window blasting Peter Gabriel; 3.6 BsR score is elite
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No big surprise here: I lurv Espinosa, and would gladly trade Span for him. He's got the glove to stick at 2B (and maybe SS; I haven't seen him play so I couldn't tell ya but UZR likes his range), and he's cheap as free, and holy god do we need MI help. I'd give Span and a C-level prospect for him, I like him so much. Revere? Hell yes. Heck, I'd do Revere + Casilla or a B prospect.
Desmond...eh. I'm not massively high on Revere, but even so I probably wouldn't do Revere-Desmond straight up. I wouldn't let Span go for him at all. I just don't see that much upside in Desmond, and he's had 2 full seasons to show he can hit in MLB with few results. A serviceable SS at serf rates for one year plus his arb years...sure, that has value, but not *that* much of it. Now, if they wanted to throw Ramos in, I'd listen...
Don't get me wrong: I like Span, and to a lesser extent Revere, and I'm not champing at the bit to trade either of them. OTOH, if the Nats want to send us some Espinosa I'd be all ears.
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I refuse
to take anything Jim Bowden says seriously.
by archie2227 on Nov 9, 2011 8:07 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I'd be more interested in something based on Revere for Lombardozzi.
I mean, Revere for Espinosa would be awesome, but doesn’t strike me as realistic. You’d have to at least think hard about a Span-Espinosa deal, but I just don’t like the idea of Revere being the permanent CF. He’d fit much better in the NL, though, so I think the Nats acquiring him has some merit.
I wonder about Revere and Liriano for Espinoza, Lombardozzi, and one of the Hagerstown 3 of Solis/Cole/Ray.
Jim Bowden says a lot of things
Just like I say a lot of things and so does everybody else here. Here’s what Bowden is saying about Carl Crawford. Tomorrow he will wonder why we don’t trade our 20 best prospects for Crawford. Of course I’ll throw a fit if Terry Ryan is that careless with the farm system.
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Champagne SuperTolbert Saves the day!!!
Anybody but Span
Revere is nowhere close to Span in any category.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Maybe
But we don’t know how Span will come back from that injury. With Revere, Benson, Hicks, Morales, Tosoni etc, it would make sense to move Span for a guy like Espinosa.
If I knew that Span was coming back 100%, I wouldn’t move him (unless we got a much bigger deal for him) but I’m really nervous about his head.
The biggest problem with trading Span and Revere
I just don’t see a team taking a huge chance and trading for him with the concussion issue. If I’m the Twins I don’t sell low on him either, so to me Span is out of the question.
Revere for Desmond is something to consider, but I still feel Revere can and will improve. If you look at minor league track records and age it is much more likely that Revere improves offensively and is already a stud defender at any outfield position. Revere never had below a .371 OBP in the minors not counting his 30 game stint in AAA this past year. Now I don’t believe he’ll get near that in the majors however a .340-.350 OBP with his speed and defensive ability could be very valuable.
Desmond may increase his offense but has a career .714 OPS in the minors and .691 OPS in the majors. If you add in his age (26) and mediocre to poor defense at SS it doesn’t add up.
The only thing I consider is a deal with Revere for Espinosa even if it took a prospect in addition or maybe straight up for Lombardozzi even though he’s more likely to be a 2B than a SS.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Desmond, Espinosa, Lombardozzi
Desmond is Trevor Plouffe, he can’t, and will not be a quality MLB SS.
Espinosa maybe could stick as a average MLB SS. But more than likely he’s a 2B. Plus, The Nats will want more than Revere.
Lombarozzi is a good target for the Twins, however, he is also more of a 2B than a SS. He is the Nats version of Brian Dozier.
I do not see a true fit. TR will want Revere around for a backup for Span. For a true SS, he/they might take a gamble and trade Revere.
I can agree with this for the most part
I think Espinosa is the only one that makes true sense as he’s most likely to stick at SS. It would ultimately depend on what they would want with Revere. I think Revere’s value will only go up this year as I pointed out above so I’m not looking to sell low on him either.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Insurance for Span
I agree that you need to keep Revere as insurance for Span. This is another reason why the Twins should sign David DeJesus as well.
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Yes please!
Why can’t we do a 2 for 2 trade? I’d give up Revere AND Span for Desmond and either Espinosa or Lombardozzi. Desmond is better than anything we’ve got at SS, and Lombardozzi or Espinosa is much better than what we have at 2B…
If I were Terry Ryan, I’d offer Span, Revere, and Casilla for Desmond and Lombardozzi. Settle for Espinosa if we need to.
We could sign David DeJesus and Nate McLouth, and our defense would be as good as it’s ever been. We do have Aaron Hicks in the wings, and he’ll probably be ready after 1 more season in the minors… In 2013:
1B: Parmalee/Morneau
2B: Lombardozzi
SS: Desmond
3B: Valencia
DH: Mauer/Morneau
C: Mauer/Doumit
RF: Sano/Parmalee
CF: Hicks
LF: Benson/Rosario
We’re loaded with OF’s who will be ML ready in 2013-2014.
This year, we can fill in our OF with stop-gap vets like DeJesus, McLouth, Damon, or maybe we’ll go with someone we plan to keep a little longer (2-3 years?) like Mark DeRosa, Rick Ankiel, Ryan Ludwick or Josh Willingham.
Another good thing about that line-up?
It will cost about 45-50 million; potentially giving Terry Ryan 50 million+ to spend on pitching. I would LOVE to see what Terry Ryan could do to a pitching staff with that money. That line-up is not bad either…
Espinosa is the best guy listed
Espinosa is a better player than either Desmond or Lombardozzi.
Sano and Rosario won’t be ready in 2013 and it’s pretty unlikely that Hicks will be either I think trading both Span and Revere would be a bit foolish.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Lets look at these young OF's...
Miguel Sano- He’ll be 21 then, but he’s been playing pro ball for 2 full years already. In 2 more (maybe less) he’ll be just fine at the majors… 2014 is a good target that is very reasonable.
Joe Benson will for sure be ready for the majors in 2013. He’s 23 right now, and pre-2011 he was a Baseball America top 100 prospect. He has great defense and could be a 20/20 guy. He’ll be just fine by 2013, at age 25.
Chris Parmalee is ready for the Majors. Idk if he’ll be an OF or a 1B, but he is ready to play now.
Aaron Hicks will be 24 in 2013. He’s currently 22 and will probably spend all year in AA. He owns a career .266 BA and .377 OBP in almost 1300 AB’s. He may never hit over .280, but he’ll always draw a lot of walks, have good power, and be a very good defensive OF.
Eddie Rosario is probably close to Sano, aiming for 2014. He’s currently 20, making him 22 going into 2013. He has a career line of .319/.375/.573 with 26 HR’s, 86RBI, 105 R, and a low SO rate in just over 500 PA’s.
So while they all might not be ready, Hicks, Parmalee, and Benson all will be MLB players or MLB ready in 2013. Rosario and Sano may be a year off still.
Also, I don’t know enough about the Espinosa/Lombardozzi debate. Espinosa has a low avg and good power with O.K. defense. Lombadozzi is supposed to be a very good defensive player and hit for a good average, something Terry Ryan values in his M.I.
Sano – played rookie ball last year stilll 4 levels away (Low A, High A, AA, AAA) could skip a level or do two in one year but 2014 is earliest you could hope for.
Same for Rosario
Hicks MIGHT start at AA this year, he wasn’t that great at High A so I’m not sure he’s gonna be up until 2014 season either
I didn’t say anything about Parmelee or Benson as they’ve both played in the majors already probably won’t start in the big leagues next year but both could and should contribute in 2012.
Point being I think it’s a bad idea to trade both Revere and Span at this point. Partially because I think they both have a very good chance to improve their value this year.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Sano being ready in 2013 is doubtfull, same with Rosario.
otherwise looks intriguing
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15469
^ the bottom video ^
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 11, 2011 12:46 AM EST up reply actions
I'd take Espinosa
I’m not sure who I’d deal but I’d take Danny in a heart beat. His xBABIP is .324 so he should see an increase in average next year. He’s shown power and some speed as well.
Hicks is in a hell of a lot of trouble and dropping in prospect rankings like a rock
I’d love to get something for him before people realize his only value is in his arm and he’s maybe a relief pitcher. He’s 22 and having a lot of trouble hitting…
.377 career OBP...
You’re right… Take that bat out of his hands!
Give him time… We’re trying to make him too selective. When he’s given the opportunity to actually be a hitter and a free swinger, he looks like he could be a solid hitter to all fields.
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