FanPost

2011 Twins, Against The Odds

Here is a look at how the Twins 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Twins games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4507 which translates to an expected win total of 73.0 games.  The Twins actually went 63-99 on the season.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Twins were the largest favorite to win.

 

 

Rank Date Away SP Home SP Away Home Fave Fave Win Perc MIN Win Perc Winning Team Away Runs Home Runs Total Runs
1 04-13-2011 Kyle Davies Francisco Liriano KC MIN MIN 62.617 62.617 KC 10 5 15
2 08-25-2011 Jo-Jo Reyes Francisco Liriano BAL MIN MIN 60.707 60.707 BAL 6 1 7
3 07-14-2011 Bruce Chen Francisco Liriano KC MIN MIN 59.759 59.759 MIN 4 8 12
4 06-19-2011 Dustin Moseley Francisco Liriano SD MIN MIN 59.596 59.596 MIN 4 5 9
5 08-23-2011 Alfredo Simon Brian Duensing BAL MIN MIN 58.333 58.333 BAL 8 1 9
6 04-12-11 Jeff Francis Brian Duensing KC MIN MIN 57.895 57.895 MIN 3 4 7
7 06-29-2011 Rubby DeLaRosa Scott Baker LAN MIN MIN 57.717 57.717 MIN 0 1 1
8 06-18-2011 Tim Stauffer Scott Baker SD MIN MIN 57.082 57.082 MIN 0 1 1
9 08-22-2011 Zach Britton Carl Pavano BAL MIN MIN 56.989 56.989 BAL 4 1 5
10 04-27-2011 Jeff Niemann Francisco Liriano TB MIN MIN 56.427 56.427 TB 8 2 10
11 07-23-2011 Brad Penny Scott Baker DET MIN MIN 56.236 56.236 MIN 1 4 5
12 06-17-2011 Clayton Richard Brian Duensing SD MIN MIN 55.357 55.357 MIN 5 6 11
13 07-16-2011 Jeff Francis Carl Pavano KC MIN MIN 55.257 55.257 MIN 3 4 7
14 05-27-2011 Tyler Chatwood Scott Baker LAA MIN MIN 55.056 55.056 LAA 6 5 11
15 07-18-2011 David Huff Anthony Swarzak CLE MIN MIN 55.056 55.056 CLE 5 2 7
16 04-10-11 Brandon McCarthy Scott Baker OAK MIN MIN 54.853 54.853 OAK 5 3 8
17 08-24-2011 Jeremy Guthrie Kevin Slowey BAL MIN MIN 54.853 54.853 BAL 6 1 7
18 07-17-2011 Felipe Paulino Brian Duensing KC MIN MIN 54.751 54.751 MIN 3 4 7
19 07-15-2011 Luke Hochevar Nick Blackburn KC MIN MIN 54.649 54.649 KC 2 1 3
20 07-18-2011 Fausto Carmona Scott Diamond CLE MIN MIN 54.442 54.442 CLE 6 3 9
21 07-06-11 Wade Davis Francisco Liriano TB MIN MIN 54.233 54.233 TB 12 5 17
22 07-24-2011 Rick Porcello Francisco Liriano DET MIN MIN 54.233 54.233 DET 5 2 7
23 04-24-2011 Carlos Carrasco Carl Pavano CLE MIN MIN 54.023 54.023 MIN 3 4 7
24 04-23-2011 Fausto Carmona Brian Duensing CLE MIN MIN 53.917 53.917 MIN 3 10 13
25 07-19-2011 Justin Masterson Francisco Liriano CLE MIN MIN 53.162 53.162 MIN 1 2 3
26 06-27-2011 Chad Billingsley Nick Blackburn LAN MIN MIN 52.494 52.494 LAN 15 0 15
27 07-20-2011 Josh Tomlin Nick Blackburn CLE MIN MIN 52.494 52.494 MIN 5 7 12
28 05-24-2011 Doug Fister Nick Blackburn SEA MIN MIN 52.038 52.038 MIN 2 4 6
29 05-14-2011 Jo-Jo Reyes Nick Blackburn TOR MIN MIN 51.807 51.807 TOR 9 3 12
30 04-02-11 Francisco Liriano Kyle Drabek MIN TOR MIN 51.691 51.691 TOR 1 6 7
31 08-04-11 Francisco Liriano Tyler Chatwood MIN LAA MIN 51.574 51.574 LAA 1 7 8
32 06-28-2011 Ted Lilly Brian Duensing LAN MIN MIN 51.574 51.574 MIN 4 6 10
33 08-06-11 Zach Stewart Carl Pavano CHA MIN MIN 51.22 51.22 CHA 6 1 7
34 04-28-2011 Jeremy Hellickson Nick Blackburn TB MIN MIN 51.22 51.22 TB 15 3 18
35 04-30-2011 Brian Duensing Sean O'Sullivan MIN KC MIN 51.22 51.22 KC 2 11 13
36 04-08-11 Brett Anderson Carl Pavano OAK MIN MIN 50.98 50.98 MIN 1 2 3
37 05-23-2011 Jason Vargas Carl Pavano SEA MIN MIN 50.86 50.86 SEA 8 7 15
38 04-09-11 Gio Gonzalez Nick Blackburn OAK MIN MIN 50.739 50.739 OAK 1 0 1
39 05-11-11 Phil Coke Scott Baker DET MIN MIN 50.617 50.617 DET 9 7 16
40 09-27-2011 Sean O'Sullivan Anthony Swarzak KC MIN MIN 50.617 50.617 MIN 4 7 11
41 08-03-11 Scott Baker Joel Pineiro MIN LAA MIN 50.249 50.249 MIN 11 4 15
42 05-10-11 Rick Porcello Francisco Liriano DET MIN MIN 50 50 DET 10 2 12
43 09-24-2011 Brian Duensing David Huff MIN CLE CLE 50 50 CLE 2 8 10
44 04-19-2011 Carl Pavano Jake Arrieta MIN BAL BAL 50.249 49.751 BAL 0 11 11
45 04-29-2011 Scott Baker Bruce Chen MIN KC KC 50.249 49.751 KC 3 4 7
46 05-25-2011 Erik Bedard Brian Duensing SEA MIN SEA 50.739 49.261 SEA 3 0 3
47 07-22-2011 Max Scherzer Brian Duensing DET MIN DET 50.739 49.261 DET 8 2 10
48 09-26-2011 Felipe Paulino Kevin Slowey KC MIN KC 50.86 49.14 KC 7 3 10
49 08-07-11 Jake Peavy Brian Duensing CHA MIN CHA 50.98 49.02 CHA 7 0 7
50 05-21-2011 Scott Baker Micah Owings MIN ARI ARI 50.98 49.02 ARI 6 9 15
51 05-13-2011 Ricky Romero Carl Pavano TOR MIN TOR 51.1 48.9 TOR 2 0 2
52 04-28-2011 Jeff Niemann Anthony Swarzak TB MIN TB 51.22 48.78 TB 6 1 7
53 08-05-11 Mark Buehrle Nick Blackburn CHA MIN CHA 51.338 48.662 CHA 5 3 8
54 04-18-2011 Francisco Liriano Chris Tillman MIN BAL BAL 51.338 48.662 MIN 5 3 8
55 06-16-2011 Mark Buehrle Nick Blackburn CHA MIN CHA 51.338 48.662 MIN 0 1 1
56 05-01-11 Carl Pavano Luke Hochevar MIN KC KC 51.691 48.309 KC 3 10 13
57 09-17-2011 Jeanmar Gomez Anthony Swarzak CLE MIN CLE 51.691 48.309 CLE 10 4 14
58 09-20-2011 Jason Vargas Liam Hendriks SEA MIN SEA 51.691 48.309 SEA 5 4 9
59 07-05-11 James Shields Scott Baker TB MIN TB 51.807 48.193 MIN 2 3 5
60 07-02-11 Chris Narveson Carl Pavano MIL MIN MIL 52.038 47.962 MIL 8 7 15
61 09-05-11 Phil Humber Anthony Swarzak CHA MIN CHA 52.038 47.962 CHA 2 1 3
62 08-28-2011 Brad Penny Brian Duensing DET MIN DET 52.267 47.733 MIN 4 11 15
63 07-01-11 Yovanni Gallardo Francisco Liriano MIL MIN MIL 52.719 47.281 MIN 2 6 8
64 07-03-11 Zach Greinke Nick Blackburn MIL MIN MIL 52.941 47.059 MIN 7 9 16
65 06-12-11 Matt Harrison Francisco Liriano TEX MIN TEX 53.052 46.948 MIN 1 6 7
66 09-22-2011 Blake Beavan Anthony Swarzak SEA MIN SEA 53.38 46.62 MIN 2 3 5
67 09-28-2011 Bruce Chen Carl Pavano KC MIN KC 53.38 46.62 MIN 0 1 1
68 06-02-11 Anthony Swarzak Sean O'Sullivan MIN KC KC 53.488 46.512 MIN 8 2 10
69 09-05-11 Zach Stewart Scott Diamond CHA MIN CHA 53.811 46.189 CHA 4 0 4
70 04-16-2011 Scott Baker Jeff Niemann MIN TB TB 53.811 46.189 TB 3 4 7
71 08-08-11 Tim Wakefield Scott Baker BOS MIN BOS 54.233 45.767 BOS 8 6 14
72 09-06-11 Jake Peavy Liam Hendriks CHA MIN CHA 54.649 45.351 CHA 3 0 3
73 04-15-2011 Nick Blackburn Wade Davis MIN TB TB 54.649 45.351 TB 2 5 7
74 04-01-11 Carl Pavano Ricky Romero MIN TOR TOR 54.751 45.249 TOR 3 13 16
75 04-03-11 Nick Blackburn Brett Cecil MIN TOR TOR 54.751 45.249 MIN 4 3 7
76 04-14-2011 Carl Pavano James Shields MIN TB TB 54.751 45.249 TB 3 4 7
77 06-15-2011 Gavin Floyd Carl Pavano CHA MIN CHA 54.955 45.045 MIN 1 4 5
78 05-03-11 Francisco Liriano Edwin Jackson MIN CHA CHA 55.157 44.843 MIN 1 0 1
79 09-07-11 John Danks Carl Pavano CHA MIN CHA 55.257 44.743 MIN 4 5 9
80 06-11-11 Colby Lewis Scott Baker TEX MIN TEX 55.357 44.643 MIN 1 8 9
81 04-17-2011 Brian Duensing Jeremy Hellickson MIN TB TB 55.654 44.346 MIN 4 2 6
82 09-16-2011 Ubaldo Jimenez Kevin Slowey CLE MIN CLE 55.654 44.346 CLE 7 6 13
83 08-09-11 Erik Bedard Francisco Liriano BOS MIN BOS 55.85 44.15 BOS 4 3 7
84 07-30-2011 Nick Blackburn Guillermo Moscoso MIN OAK OAK 55.85 44.15 OAK 3 8 11
85 04-20-2011 Nick Blackburn Zach Britton MIN BAL BAL 55.947 44.053 BAL 4 5 9
86 04-21-2011 Scott Baker Jeremy Guthrie MIN BAL BAL 56.044 43.956 MIN 3 1 4
87 05-15-2011 Brandon Morrow Brian Duensing TOR MIN TOR 56.14 43.86 TOR 11 3 14
88 06-07-11 Francisco Liriano Carlos Carrasco MIN CLE CLE 56.427 43.573 CLE 0 1 1
89 06-09-11 Derek Holland Nick Blackburn TEX MIN TEX 56.427 43.573 MIN 4 5 9
90 08-17-2011 Carl Pavano Brad Penny MIN DET DET 56.616 43.384 MIN 6 5 11
91 09-13-2011 Carl Pavano Bruce Chen MIN KC KC 56.616 43.384 KC 0 4 4
92 09-21-2011 Michael Pineda Kevin Slowey SEA MIN SEA 56.71 43.29 SEA 5 4 9
93 07-31-2011 Carl Pavano Brandon McCarthy MIN OAK OAK 56.989 43.011 OAK 3 7 10
94 05-30-2011 Nick Blackburn Brad Penny MIN DET DET 57.082 42.918 DET 5 6 11
95 09-18-2011 Justin Masterson Carl Pavano CLE MIN CLE 57.082 42.918 CLE 6 5 11
96 09-24-2011 Scott Diamond Mitch Talbot MIN CLE CLE 57.082 42.918 CLE 6 7 13
97 07-29-2011 Francisco Liriano Gio Gonzalez MIN OAK OAK 57.173 42.827 MIN 9 5 14
98 08-26-2011 Rick Porcello Scott Diamond DET MIN DET 57.173 42.827 DET 8 1 9
99 06-03-11 Carl Pavano Danny Duffy MIN KC KC 57.356 42.644 MIN 5 2 7
100 08-20-2011 A.J. Burnett Francisco Liriano NYA MIN NYA 57.356 42.644 MIN 4 9 13
101 05-29-2011 Dan Haren Carl Pavano LAA MIN LAA 57.537 42.463 LAA 6 5 11
102 08-13-2011 Brian Duensing Josh Tomlin MIN CLE CLE 57.537 42.463 CLE 1 3 4
103 05-06-11 Scott Baker Tim Wakefield MIN BOS BOS 57.717 42.283 MIN 9 2 11
104 06-22-2011 Nick Blackburn Ryan Vogelsong MIN SF SF 57.717 42.283 SF 1 5 6
105 06-24-2011 Scott Baker Randy Wolf MIN MIL MIL 57.895 42.105 MIL 3 4 7
106 08-15-2011 Francisco Liriano Rick Porcello MIN DET DET 57.895 42.105 MIN 9 6 15
107 04-07-11 Francisco Liriano A.J. Burnett MIN NYA NYA 58.159 41.841 NYA 3 4 7
108 06-25-2011 Francisco Liriano Yovanni Gallardo MIN MIL MIL 58.246 41.754 MIL 1 11 12
109 06-04-11 Nick Blackburn Luke Hochevar MIN KC KC 58.42 41.58 MIN 7 2 9
110 05-22-2011 Francisco Liriano Daniel Hudson MIN ARI ARI 58.42 41.58 ARI 2 3 5
111 06-06-11 Scott Baker Josh Tomlin MIN CLE CLE 58.592 41.408 MIN 6 4 10
112 06-21-2011 Carl Pavano Madison Bumgarner MIN SF SF 58.592 41.408 MIN 9 2 11
113 09-14-2011 Liam Hendriks Luke Hochevar MIN KC KC 58.763 41.237 KC 3 7 10
114 07-04-11 David Price Brian Duensing TB MIN TB 59.1 40.9 MIN 0 7 7
115 07-07-11 Carl Pavano Phil Humber MIN CHA CHA 59.267 40.733 MIN 6 2 8
116 06-26-2011 Carl Pavano Chris Narveson MIN MIL MIL 59.267 40.733 MIL 2 6 8
117 07-28-2011 Scott Baker Matt Harrison MIN TEX TEX 59.267 40.733 TEX 1 4 5
118 06-05-11 Brian Duensing Jeff Francis MIN KC KC 59.596 40.404 MIN 6 0 6
119 07-09-11 Brian Duensing Mark Buehrle MIN CHA CHA 59.759 40.241 CHA 3 4 7
120 06-10-11 C.J. Wilson Brian Duensing TEX MIN TEX 59.759 40.241 TEX 9 3 12
121 08-30-2011 Anthony Swarzak Zach Stewart MIN CHA CHA 59.759 40.241 CHA 6 8 14
122 06-01-11 Scott Baker Rick Porcello MIN DET DET 59.92 40.08 DET 2 4 6
123 06-08-11 Carl Pavano Justin Masterson MIN CLE CLE 59.92 40.08 MIN 3 2 5
124 08-12-11 Carl Pavano Justin Masterson MIN CLE CLE 59.92 40.08 CLE 2 3 5
125 05-07-11 Brian Duensing Clay Buchholz MIN BOS BOS 60.08 39.92 BOS 0 4 4
126 09-09-11 Kevin Slowey Brad Penny MIN DET DET 60.08 39.92 DET 4 8 12
127 07-21-2011 Justin Verlander Carl Pavano DET MIN DET 60.08 39.92 DET 6 2 8
128 05-16-2011 Scott Baker Michael Pineda MIN SEA SEA 60.239 39.761 SEA 2 5 7
129 04-04-11 Scott Baker Ivan Nova MIN NYA NYA 60.63 39.37 NYA 3 4 7
130 07-10-11 Anthony Swarzak Jake Peavy MIN CHA CHA 60.784 39.216 MIN 6 3 9
131 09-04-11 Kevin Slowey Joel Pineiro MIN LAA LAA 60.861 39.139 LAA 1 4 5
132 07-08-11 Nick Blackburn Gavin Floyd MIN CHA CHA 61.014 38.986 MIN 8 5 13
133 08-19-2011 Phil Hughes Kevin Slowey NYA MIN NYA 61.014 38.986 NYA 8 1 9
134 08-02-11 Brian Duensing Ervin Santana MIN LAA LAA 61.315 38.685 LAA 1 5 6
135 05-28-2011 Jered Weaver Anthony Swarzak LAA MIN LAA 61.538 38.462 MIN 0 1 1
136 05-18-2011 Carl Pavano Brandon McCarthy MIN OAK OAK 61.686 38.314 MIN 4 3 7
137 09-25-2011 Liam Hendriks Fausto Carmona MIN CLE CLE 61.686 38.314 MIN 6 4 10
138 08-21-2011 Ivan Nova Nick Blackburn NYA MIN NYA 61.905 38.095 NYA 3 0 3
139 05-04-11 Nick Blackburn John Danks MIN CHA CHA 62.193 37.807 MIN 3 2 5
140 05-19-2011 Nick Blackburn Tyson Ross MIN OAK OAK 62.477 37.523 MIN 11 1 12
141 07-25-2011 Nick Blackburn Derek Holland MIN TEX TEX 62.756 37.244 TEX 6 20 26
142 05-20-2011 Brian Duensing Ian Kennedy MIN ARI ARI 63.031 36.969 ARI 7 8 15
143 05-31-2011 Brian Duensing Max Scherzer MIN DET DET 63.303 36.697 DET 7 8 15
144 06-23-2011 Brian Duensing Tim Lincecum MIN SF SF 63.303 36.697 SF 1 2 3
145 08-31-2011 Scott Diamond Jake Peavy MIN CHA CHA 64.349 35.651 MIN 7 6 13
146 05-17-2011 Francisco Liriano Felx Hernandez MIN SEA SEA 64.539 35.461 MIN 2 1 3
147 08-10-11 Jon Lester Nick Blackburn BOS MIN BOS 64.727 35.273 MIN 2 5 7
148 05-08-11 Carl Pavano Daisuke Matsuzaka MIN BOS BOS 64.789 35.211 BOS 5 9 14
149 09-23-2011 Carl Pavano Justin Masterson MIN CLE CLE 64.789 35.211 CLE 5 6 11
150 09-10-11 Anthony Swarzak Max Scherzer MIN DET DET 64.851 35.149 DET 3 4 7
151 08-29-2011 Kevin Slowey Mark Buehrle MIN CHA CHA 65.217 34.783 CHA 0 3 3
152 07-27-2011 Brian Duensing Colby Lewis MIN TEX TEX 65.398 34.602 MIN 7 2 9
153 08-18-2011 C.C. Sabathia Brian Duensing NYA MIN NYA 66.102 33.898 NYA 8 4 12
154 08-27-2011 Justin Verlander Carl Pavano DET MIN DET 66.102 33.898 DET 6 4 10
155 04-05-11 Brian Duensing C.C. Sabathia MIN NYA NYA 66.273 33.727 MIN 5 4 9
156 07-26-2011 Carl Pavano C.J. Wilson MIN TEX TEX 67.213 32.787 MIN 9 8 17
157 05-09-11 Nick Blackburn Josh Beckett MIN BOS BOS 67.742 32.258 BOS 1 2 3
158 09-11-11 Scott Diamond Doug Fister MIN DET DET 68.75 31.25 DET 1 2 3
159 09-02-11 Carl Pavano Jered Weaver MIN LAA LAA 69.231 30.769 MIN 13 5 18
160 08-16-2011 Nick Blackburn Justin Verlander MIN DET DET 71.347 28.653 DET 1 7 8
161 09-03-11 Brian Duensing Joel Pineiro MIN LAA LAA 71.831 28.169 LAA 6 10 16
162 09-19-2011 Scott Diamond A.J. Burnett MIN NYA NYA 73.046 26.954 NYA 4 6 10
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