Josh Willingham Market Heating Up, Hinges On Michael Cuddyer
by Jesse on Dec 11, 2011 11:31 PM EST
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It seems as though the Twins might be finally starting to move forward with their off-season plans. For the last couple of weeks we've known that much of their larger plans depended on what happened with Michael Cuddyer; the Twins are working with a limited budget and have many holes to fill, meaning if they make one significant move (and signing Cuddyer would be significant) then it would have repurcussions for the rest of their winter.
Earlier today, Nick Camino of WTAM 1100 in Cleveland stated that Josh Willingham's landing spots were down to Minnesota and Cleveland. Naturally this has been somewhat disputed, as over the last couple of days the Mariners have been finalists and then totally out of the running for Willingham's services, and the Rockies continue to be involved where the market for Cuddyer is concerned. Indeed, that seems to be the common theme. It's not just the Twins that are waiting on Cuddyer, but it's also Colorado and, indirectly, the Indians.
With Minnesota being as patient as they can be for Cuddyer, the Rockies seem to be of the same mindset. The Indians, meanwhile, haven't been connected to the longtime Twin but may end up being in direct competition with whichever team(s) don't land him in order to bring in Willingham. If the Indians can find the money.
At some point, whether the Twins get a definitive answer from Cuddyer or not, they'll need to move on. The longer they wait to begin their off-season rebuild, the more other teams will begin to solidify their own plans for 2012, the fewer options the Twins will have to get better. Because the truth is that even if the Twins land one of those two right-handed bats, it only makes them a .500 team. There are a great many things this team needs to do before Opening Day if they plan on putting a winning product on the field.
Considering the similar market for these two players, I have to believe that if Willingham's asking price was an order of magnitude less than Cuddyer's then he'd already have signed with one of these teams. Keeping that in mind, if the Twins are paying millions for this player profile then it's an added bonus that they can help bolster their future at the same time. If Cuddyer wants to hold out for four years or three years and extra money, let him. He's a good player and somebody will sign him.
Because if I'm Minnesota, I'm done waiting. I have a lot of work to get done, I can sign another player for similar money who can hit right-handed pitching, and I can pick up a couple of draft picks in the process. And it all means I can get back to work tomorrow in terms of putting my team together.
It's never easy to say goodbye. If that's what happens between the Twins and Cuddyer, part of me will be sad. But there's more at stake here than nostalgia and familiarity and continuity. We're talking about the success of the team in 2012 and beyond.
Extenuating circumstances or not the Twins are working on some kind of a deadline. If you're Minnesota, how long do you wait on Cuddyer?
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If I’m Minnesota, I waited until last week to sign Cuddyer. Then I went to Willingham and Kubel.
by Brady Eyestone on Dec 11, 2011 11:57 PM EST reply actions
i would have waited until never because signing him would be super dumb
I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter
why would you sign cuddyer, and for what type of money/years
I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter
I can respect this
Gleeman had a nice write up on it…
by diehardtwinsfan on Dec 12, 2011 7:20 AM EST up reply actions
I’d sign him because he’s always been a consistent player, had some power, and can at least fill in at other positions from time to time. Is he a superstar? No, but he’s a pretty good player to have. The offer on the table right now sounds about right.
by Brady Eyestone on Dec 12, 2011 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
I don't see how
wRC+ of 88, 124, 104, 124 the past four years is consistent. And he can’t play any position at an average level, so I don’t see why his willingness to play there is a big deal. Lots of people can play a crappy second base or center field.
I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter
He's consistent when healthy
But he’s been often injured in his career. Going into his 32nd year, that figures to get worse not better. If you really want consistency, look at Willingham’s OPS+ over the last six years: 121, 115, 117, 127, 129, 121. He’s also remarkably consistent against righties and lefties, unlike Cuddyer.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
You could also look at oWAR
Cuddy – 3.6, 2.8, 0.7, 2.9, 1.8, 3.2
Willing- 2.6, 1.9, 1.7, 2.6, 2.7, 2.3
The real problem I have in looking at Willingham’s offensive stats is assuming that the stats he put up in the NL are equivalent to AL numbers.
Yes. That 88 came in 2008 when he played in 77 games.
Nevermind the fact that he has never posted anything under 100 when qualifying for the batting title. Way to tell half the story.
by Brady Eyestone on Dec 12, 2011 8:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
so he gets hurt and he's inconsistent. fair enough.
I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter
So, you hate him for no reason.
by Brady Eyestone on Dec 13, 2011 12:12 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
You have to factor health into evaluation
Cuddy’s had one fully healthy season the last five. He’s battled through a lot of nagging injuries and he’s had a couple more serious ones. The nagging injuries have sapped his power at times, like the 28 days he went without a homer last year in August and September. Or it just makes him so-so at baseball for a while, like the last two months of last year, when a lot of people around here were saying he should just go on the DL and let someone else play.
Part of that is how hard he plays. Guys who “get after it” tend to be more injury prone (see Punto, Nick). Everybody loves guys who bust their tails, but it has a cost. In Cuddy’s case, it’s cost him about a full season worth of games and about 20 points of career OPS+.
I’d take a healthy Cuddyer over a healthy Willingham any day. But I don’t have that much confidence that Cuddy will avoid injuries, especially as he ages. If the money was the same and there weren’t any draft picks involved, I might still prefer Cuddy. But if I can sign Willingham for 2 years and $15 million and get two draft picks for Cuddy, I’d do that.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Not to disagree with you in any way...
But was it Cuddy’s fault he got nailed in the wrist? “Getting after it” doesn’t explain that injury.
by spanspanspan on Dec 13, 2011 1:04 AM EST up reply actions
Some of it is bad luck, sure
But the pulled hammys and the pulled obliques and the back problems and the wrist injury that forced him to use a roller blading guard on the base paths (from diving head fist, and and and…
Most guys have the bad luck to get injured once in a while. Some guys also create their own bad luck by taking unnecessary risks with their bodies. It is tough to blame a guy early in his career for this stuff because maybe it’s all bad luck. After 10 years, you get a good idea of whether he’s more injury prone than the average.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Hard to say how long we can wait on him
But I agree, at some point the Twins have to move on. I don’t see us budging on our offer to him (3yrs 25m), which is almost the max I’d pay him.
If it really is between the Indians and Twins I like our chances at getting Willingham. Then, I’d re-sign Kubel.
"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona." ~George F. Will
From Jon Morosi
Michael Cuddyer’s FA decision will be huge news. Could happen soon. Big impact on #Twins, #Rockies plans.
?
"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."
Maybe he retires. That’s the ONLY way it can be “huge news”.
by Brady Eyestone on Dec 12, 2011 12:13 AM EST up reply actions
he can announce that he is starting a Magical Review on the Vegas Strip
You won’t believe your eyes when you watch the Cuddyer Magical Review only at the MGM Grand hotel and casino!
This is exactly why I don't put credence into rumors
All he’s saying is that he currently has nothing to write about and when Cuddyer makes a decision he will have something to write about. Nothing in that statement indicates that he knows anything more than anyone else… but he’s phrasing it like he does.
He’ll sign when he signs. Or he won’t sign. I’ll wait for actual news.
(Note that I am not foolish enough to think that the Twins front office has the luxury of waiting that I have. They ought to make it very public that they are courting Willingham, if for no other reason than to give them some leverage with Cuddyer.)
by ColossusOfRhode on Dec 12, 2011 12:28 AM EST up reply actions
The only thing we do know
Is that Michael is up every two hours to tend to his girls.
Otherwise we don’t even know what to think. My best bet is that he is waiting until Prince Fielder makes his decision.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
Champagne SuperTolbert Saves the day!!!
I don’t think Prince Fielder is going to be setting the Michael Cuddyer market.
by Brady Eyestone on Dec 12, 2011 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
There are teams searching for a 1st baseman.
Michael Cuddyer could be described as a left-handed hitting 1st Baseman. He is currently waiting for Prince Fielder who had to wait until Albert Pujols signed. Of course, some team can make an offer out of the blue and see Cuddyer take that offer before Fielder signs, but that could be unlikely.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
Champagne SuperTolbert Saves the day!!!
You could describe Michael Cuddyer as being a left-handed hitting 1st Baseman
and every word would be a lie.
by Caleb A on Dec 12, 2011 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The best part?
Of course, some team can […] out of the blue and […], but that could be unlikely.
Could be unlikely
Jessy S just invented the double negative of uncertainty.
by twinscrazy_german on Dec 12, 2011 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
Didn't you know Cuddyer is now lefthanded and too lazy to play outfield?
by twinscrazy_german on Dec 12, 2011 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
I thought he was our RP ace
"Nobody wants to hear me rap." - Joe Mauer
"The more toppings a man has on his pizza, I believe the more manly he is." - Herman Cain
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Dec 12, 2011 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Decision will probably be early in the coming week
I’m pretty sure Cuddyer decides tomorrow or the next day. He’s had most of a week to mull over the Twins’ offer and to gauge interest from others. While the birth of twins would take much of his attention, he did say that he wanted to decide early and no other signing (except perhaps Willingham) will change things for him.
I think Cuddyer is a better player than his stats because of his team-first attitude that probably has cost him by playing hurt and out of position. For example, last year Cuddyer was OPSing over .850 and was having an outstanding season until beset by injuries which he played through. www.overthebaggy.blogspot.com details both his playing with injuries and the perception that he is a poor defender.
Willingham is probably a good fallback. I notice that he has never played for a contender and I don’t know much of his injury history. I suspect that he will get close to the same annual amount as Cuddyer has been offered by the Twins, so I don’t think he will be a great bargain. No one knows if he even wants to play in Minnesota. I find it laughable to think that some think that the Twins can sign both Willingham and Kubel in place of Cuddyer. Kubel will get a good contract and I expect Willingham to come in at about $8M per year.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Dec 12, 2011 12:29 AM EST reply actions
Im done waiting for him personally
Sign Willingham and move on there is much more to be done and less time and opportunity to do it every day we wait. I realize he just had kids and all that but obviously he isnt content coming back to us at a fair price he is going to get the most out of the contract he can by waiting and waiting and leveraging offers against each other. Sign someone now and move on to address the rotation and bullpen and please please please dont let that rotation solution be Jeff Francis.
first-worst-first?
Lots of tension here.
Each of the players would really like to be the one to sign second. None of the teams want to be the one left without a chair when the music stops. Hard to tell who’s going to break, but the longer it goes, the higher the price.
None of the players wants to be left without a team either
At some point the roster slots are gone and players are scrambling.
If i am the Twins i offer Willingham
Cuddys contract and move on with life w/o Cuddy.
by clutterheart on Dec 12, 2011 6:55 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Cuddy is superior to Willingham
It’s not just his versitility that makes Cuddyer the better player. Cuddy is a better hitter with a little less power. Willingham would make a decent short term replacement should Cuddyer choose to sign elsewhere, but he’s not better than Cuddyer or even Kubel. Twins would be better off using 2012 as a rebuilding year and giving the RF ab’s to a prospect making the major league minimum. Use the $$ saved by investing in a starting pitcher.
WIllingham doesn't hit lefties as well as Cuddy
Or righties as well as Kubel.
But he hits righties way better than Cuddy and lefties way better than Kubel.
Please Mr. Baby Christmas Jesus
Let the Twins sign somebody, and not just wait until all the good players are gone then get the 2011 version of Rondell White. (Until this doesn’t happen I have a horrible fear it will.)
Steve Goodman lives.
I think this seems like a lot of grass is greener thinking
Willingham has a lot of warts here. His offensive numbers take a bit of a bounce from playing in the NL most of his career. Coming to the AL his OBP dropped nearly 40 points and he struck out a 150 times. If he doesn’t hit 29 homers, he’s a bad signing. He hit 16 in 2010. Stats like wOBA, oWAR and WPA still found Cuddy to be the better offensive player. And Willingham is a plodder on the bases (one of the two players is 40-46 on his stolen base attempts since 06 and is generally considered a good base runner), is a butcher in left field and misses about 10 more games season than Cuddy since becoming a fulltime player. Signing him hurts our OF defense by putting him in left and moving Revere’s weak arm to RF. It also doesn’t give us any backup at 1B if Morneau can’t go. And Cuddy’s ability to crush left handed pitching is more important in our lefty heavy lineup.
Keeping Cuddy means we don’t get a Supp pick and (most likely) an additional second round pick in front of either Col or Clev. I’ll be ok with that. It’s a weak draft and we don’t know how these new draft rules will play out. I think at the beginning of the draft (#2 overall) it’ll help us since we can offer a lot of money but it might hurt us in the supp area. Both Boyd and Harrison, our supp picks last year, would likely have gone to college instead of taking our offers. It might be worth finding out how our draft philosophy might change. And, of course, who ever those picks are won’t help us for years (if ever) while, I think, the FO still thinks this current Mauer/Morneau group might still have a window open to win now.
I’m also thinking maybe the Twins should consider going with a RF platoon of Plouffe and Tosoni until Benson is ready to come up and spend the money elsewhere.
Backups to Justin Morneau
Joe Mauer: Ryan Doumit and Drew Butera can be the catcher.
Luke Hughes
Alexi Casilla
Chris Parmelee
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
Champagne SuperTolbert Saves the day!!!
If Luke Huges and Alexi Casilla are part of the answer
then we’re asking the wrong questions.
From Rosenthal
Sources: #Rockes making “aggressive push” for Cuddyer. Can play 3B, LF, 1B. Believed to be seeking 3 yrs, $30M. #Twins also in mix. #MLB
If that is what he wants, I say it’s time to move on.
"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."
Go Rockies Go!
Sign him so we can get JW and JK for Cuddyer dollars.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Purportedly, WIllingham is asking for less
And Kubel doesn’t have any offers, so he’ll prolly take a lot less. But I admit it’s wishful thinking to hope for both.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
+1
I think Willingham + Kubel + two draft picks > Cuddyer + $3-4mm savings.
Also, let’s sign Rich Harden and Joel Zumaya.
by AM. on Dec 12, 2011 4:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Really?
Do you think the Twins could fit both Kubel and Willingham into their budget? I sincerely doubt it.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Dec 12, 2011 11:25 PM EST up reply actions
Let's move on. Cuddyer is holding us hostage. Cut him loose.
I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy!!!
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