Where Am I? - The Current 25-Man Roster Situation
by brandonwarne52 on Dec 15, 2011 10:01 AM EST
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By my figuring, here’s what I’ve come up with:
Starting Lineup:
C- Joe Mauer
1B- Justin Morneau
2B- Alexi Casilla
3B- Danny Valencia
SS- Jamey Carroll
LF- Josh Willingham
CF- Denard Span
RF- Trevor Plouffe
DH- Ryan Doumit
Now obviously, there’s plenty of fluidity in the starting lineup. A lot hinges on the health of well, everyone. There’s certainly a scenario that includes Morneau, Doumit, and Mauer all shifting one position down in the posted lineup, and there’s also a chance that Mr. Revere will patrol CF if Span’s concussion issues aren’t culled completely. This could be a really good offense if all falls into place, especially if the lower third is Valencia-Plouffe-Casilla, as I'd envision. I don't typically bounce off the walls with Twins signings, but this Willingham one has me doing just that. Parker Hageman of Over The Baggy and TwinsCentric says it better than I ever could here. For a point of reference on me and my feelings about Twins signings, the last one I was really excited about was Mike Lamb. Mike. Stinking. Lamb. Yeah, I get pretty vested in these Twins signings, one might say.
Bench:
C- Drew Butera
IF- Luke Hughes
IF- OPEN
OF- Ben Revere
It doesn’t really matter how little one likes Butera; he’s almost guaranteed a spot on the roster. He’s a good catch-and-throw guy and for some reason Pavano’s personal caddy (we’ll get into that another time), and if the Twins can limit him to 100 plate appearances, that is probably OK. Ideally speaking, the Twins won’t let Doumit catch any more than they have to, especially in light of the work that Mike Fast has done over at Baseball Prospectus --free and it will change your life-- which basically portrayed Ryan as a complete disaster back there. Hughes is out of options, and carries a little position flexibility and and decent stick. I think there’s a good chance they pair him with a defensively-minded shortstop --perhaps Pedro Florimon is added back to the 40-man roster if a guy like Ronny Cedeno isn’t added-- to round out the infield. Revere will be the rover on the bench, though I could see a scenario where the Twins try Willingham in right and let Plouffe come off the bench with Ben patrolling left. That would be a more ideal defensive combination on a staff that’s like to induce a ton of bird chasers in 2012.
1. Scott Baker
2. Carl Pavano
3. Francisco Liriano
4. Nick Blackburn
5. OPEN (Liam Hendriks/Brian Duensing/P.J. Walters/Scott Diamond/Terry Doyle)
I hear those yawns. Yes, this is basically the same rotation as last season. Yes, I do think Blackburn is guaranteed a rotation spot even after a rough 2012. And yes, I do think this rotation can get the team to the playoffs. Wait, what? That’s right; I think the Twins can make the playoffs in 2012. Does a lot need to go right? Oh, absolutely. But if the health woes that plagued the team can be even moderately overcome, I think the team has done well enough in free agency to at least put itself into position to be an 85ish win club next year. In this rotation, the hurlers will need plenty of help from their defense. It was sort of a chicken-and-egg quandary last year, as the Twins abandoned J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson, and as a result the overall up-the-middle defense suffered. Not surprisingly, that meant the team’s BABIP against went from .302 to .310 from 2010 to 2011, which includes a jump from a .239 mark on grounders in ‘10 to a .269 mark in ‘11.
MU- Anthony Swarzak
MR- Brian Duensing, OPEN, OPEN
SU- Glen Perkins
CL- Matt Capps
Potential fillers include Esmerling Vasquez, Kyle Waldrop, Alex Burnett, Lester Oliveros, Matt Maloney, Carlos Gutierrez, and Jeff Gray.
This is more of a rag-tag group. I think Swarzak is guaranteed a spot after a pretty solid 2011, though I think it’d be a mistake to give him any high-leverage innings. With his banishment to the pen, I think Duensing will start out as a LOOGY or short stint type guy at first, but maybe he can have a Perkins-esque revival as well. I’m not as hopeful about that, but he’s useful if used correctly. I like Perkins in the setup role, but I’m not in love with Capps as the closer. As someone who has had fleeting contact with him over the last year or so, I’ll say this much: he’s an excellent guy, and nobody takes their struggles more seriously than he does. Still, his skill set just isn’t that of a shutdown closer.
So where does this leave the club? Well, certainly with one opening in the offense, which is likely to be more of a bench bat than anything. If the club could ink a guy like Luke Scott on the cheap to fill out the bench and play outfield on a regular basis, that would probably be a pretty good under-the-radar move. I’m not holding my breath, however.
Prediction:
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What happened to Tsuyoshi Nishioka?
…I think that he begins his year in Rochester or even New Britain. I expect however, that he will be on the opening day roster and fill your last bench spot. What I have read indicates that Willingham will be in right field with Revere opening in left. I think the last two roster spots will be taken by a starting pitcher and right handed reliever. My surprise prediction is that when 2012 ends, Luke Hughes will have played more second base than Alexi Casilla.
My notion....
Would be that he could really go either way. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Twins want him to have some success stateside, and do send him to Rochester, if only for a little bit.
Thanks for reading.
by brandonwarne52 on Dec 15, 2011 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
This team still has holes and big question marks...
but having a healthy Mauer/Liriano/Baker/Span (4 of our 5 best players; I’m not even counting on Morneau) back is HUGE. I think this team can still contend for this crappy division. The White Sox will be worse, the Tigers aren’t all that, the Royals’ rotation still sucks, and the Indians should take a step back.
If we were in the AL East? Ya, we’d be 5th. But this team still can be a top 2 team in this division this year.
The Tigers aren’t all that? Are you kidding? They’re favored to win the division again. They have a solid rotation, potent offense, and pretty much everything we DON’T have.
Including
Delmon Young as their three hitter?
They have Cabrera and Verlander. Other than that, they ain’t all that. Certainly not unbeatable.
right..
they’d be the favorites in the division, i agree, but they’re nothing special.
Tigers
…I tend to agree. They’re decently well rounded, but by no means a sure-thing to win the Central again.
Thanks for reading.
by brandonwarne52 on Dec 15, 2011 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, but I'd take Verlander, Scherzer, or Fister over anyone in our starting rotation as it is above
And I don’t think Delmon as the three hitter is as bad as you imply. If our guys (meaning the M&M boys and Span) are healthy and playing up to par, I think it’s a fair fight for the division, but there are a lot of variables that have to fall correctly for that to happen.
The difference is that I think the Twins could be great, whereas I’m pretty sure the Tigers will be good. A solid starting rotation goes a long way.
by ColossusOfRhode on Dec 15, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
This was my point exactly.
Delmon makes a lot of sense for the Tigers. They love poor outfield defenders.
i guess i disagree...
verlander, certainly. but i’d expect both liriano and baker to have better years than scherzer or fister. and i’d expect pavano, much as i dislike him, to not be much different than those 2 either. the problem with the twins’ rotation last year was health a lot more than “ineffectiveness”
Of course you disagree.
Anyway.
Fister is a elite when healthy. A better pitcher than Baker when healthy.
Liriano is the best of the 4 when he’s on his game but he’s inconsistent therefore rendering Fister as the best.
Scherzer isn’t as bad as his ERA hints at.
disagree completely on fister...
liriano’s all about health. he pitched hurt all year last year.
we shall see this year.
I'm not as high on Baker as most
The guy gets to the fifth inning and just tanks. If he doesn’t throw out of the stretch he’s usually fine, but then he does and I swear I can see him over thinking every little thing and getting beat. Liriano is great when he’s on and terrible when he’s off… not something I would bank anything on. I actually like Pavano the best of our rotation because he’s pretty consistent — not great, but solid.
Fister and Scherzer might not be as good as Liriano at his peak, but over the course of the season, the chances of them going to pot are much lower.
And really, you can’t underestimate what Verlander brings you. That’s 20+ wins right there, without doing anything else. The Twins don’t have anyone even remotely of that caliber. So now your argument hinges that the Tigers #2 and #3 are only slightly worse (which I would argue against) than the Twins #1 and #2. But I say it comes down to “could be great” vs. “will be good.”
Either way, I can’t wait until we’re actually watching this unfold on the ball field instead of debating it on a blog.
by ColossusOfRhode on Dec 15, 2011 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
Nishi will be on the 25 man roster on opening day
and Revere will start in LF with WIllingham in RF.
Maybe
You could be right, but Willingham hasn’t played much RF in his career, so one has to wonder why. A’s people I’ve chatted with aren’t sure he can hack it out there.
Thanks for reading.
by brandonwarne52 on Dec 15, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
That infield spot
Is almost certainly Nishi. That may not be ideal, but I don’t think they will ship him to the minors. They spent to much for him, and I think they will worry about messing with his head. Hopefully he’s been working in the off season.
I also think one of those open bullpen spots is almost certainly Olivieros. And that Revere starts in left with Willingham in right and Plouffe off the bench.
Nishioka
I don’t disagree. I just don’t think he’s a sure-thing yet, either. I won’t be too tore up if he’s the 25th man.
Thanks for reading.
by brandonwarne52 on Dec 15, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
Quibbles
1) I would be SHOCKED if Plouffe got a starting job over Revere – Gardy loves Revere, as do many Twins fans, and Plouffe hasn’t shown enough with the bat that they’ll let it outweigh Revere’s speed and defense. That probably means Willingham in right, although even with the noodle arm, I’m okay with Revere there – he’ll still save more runs with his legs than he’ll cost with his arm.
2) Ryan stated that Doumit is the backup catcher, so I’m holding out hope that Butera starts the year in Rochester. We’ll see, I guess. If so, that pushes Plouffe to more DH duty (given my above opinion that I don’t think he is going to start in the outfield over Revere).
3) Like others said, Nishi will almost certainly start the year in the majors – I’d assume he’ll start close to half of the time, mostly at second (with Casilla spelling Carroll at short on Carroll’s days off). I think he deserves another decent shot to prove he isn’t completely a sunk cost.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Quibbles
1. Me too, but they have to find out what they have in Plouffe. He was an absolute monster in Rochester, and if he can even bring 1/2 that in the major leagues, he’ll be an asset.
2. I know what they’ve said, but I just don’t think it’s a particularly good idea. Doumit is a pretty bad catcher, in terms of framing pitches especially, and that’ll hurt on a team full of nibblers.
3. I don’t disagree, necessarily.
Thanks for reading.
by brandonwarne52 on Dec 15, 2011 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
Plouffe at DH and Willingham in the field?
That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. I still think they sign one more bat and 2 more pitchers.
hopefully Benson is up relatively soon, as currently constructed...
then you could have Benson in RF and a platoon rotation of Revere/Plouffe/Willingham in LF. And we’d have tons of bodies for 1b/DH in Morneau/Willingham/Plouffe/Doumit/Mauer.
I’d still like to see Mauer worked in at 3b rather than 1b on his “half” days this year.
why do you say that?
there was talk of it even last year of him starting to take grounders there.
I’d say there’s about a 50/50 chance he does.
Mauer will probably never play 3B
Joe has the athleticism to play any corner spot infield or outfield but I see us continuing to make every attempt to keep him at catcher despite the health concerns.
twitter@al_damlo.com
Mauer is fragile.
3B is the “hot corner” for a reason. You don’t have your $184 million man playing 3B that requires jumping around and possibly injuring himself.
Pretty sure Mauer has never played 3B before either. I think you’re absolutely incorrect that there’s even a remote possibility of Mauer at 3B especially when you have a healthy Valencia and a Hughes off the bench.
The injury concern...
would actually move him to 3B… don’t you think? I am with you, 3B won’t happen, but it does make you think of ideas of the best ways to keep Mauer on the field. I blame his injuries on his girlfriend. He is engaged now & married soon, maybe that will keep him on the field more…
:)
twitter@al_damlo.com
I meant...
would move him somewhere… 1B, LF, RF, 3B… I don’t see playing 3B as some grueling position where injuries are frequent.
Here is a cool chart on DL trips in 2010:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2010-disabled-list-position-data/
Basically, unless you are a pitcher or a catcher there is no position that is more DL friendly than any other…
Optimumly, Mauer learns to stay healthy at Catcher. That is where his real value is and our line-up with him there is emensely better than when he is not.
twitter@al_damlo.com
absolutely...
and I’m all for keeping him at C as long as possible; let me be clear.
I’m simply saying that on his “field” days I’d rather have him playing 3b than 1b. 1) it keeps a better bat in the lineup; Doumit/Morneau/Willingham vs. Valencia. 2) I really think he can be an elite defender there quickly. 3) I don’t buy that 3b is any tougher injury-wise than 1b, at all. I see no evidence of that.
Longterm, when he does make a switch, I’d like to see it to 3b rather than 1b. It’s also about value. When Joe does have to move, he’s much more valuable as a 3b than a 1b.
Meh.
OK there is no real supporting facts that 3B is more injury prone than 1B is but… Mauer going to 3B seriously doesn’t make sense.
I get that he’s athletic and has a natural knack for baseball but there’s no point in taking out a healthy 3B (Valencia) just to move Mauer there because in that case you have 3B Mauer, C – Doumit (Lord help us if it’s Pavano and Doumit vs. speedy runners), and 1B. Morneau(?)
Actually. After I wrote that out, that does kind of make sense.
I don't think it that he's fragile
As much as that he’s big, and playing catcher is brutal.
Benson
I like Benson a lot but he was overmatched with breaking pitches in the big leagues. He’ll need at least half a season at Rochester, I think.
Thanks for reading.
by brandonwarne52 on Dec 15, 2011 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
How doesn't it make sense?
Plouffe is a terrible defender and can’t throw worth a damn.
This is my depth chart that I’m willing to bet on… assuming we DO NOT re-sign Kubel
C – Mauer/Doumit/Butera
1B – Morneau/Mauer/Doumit
2B – Nishioka/Casilla/Carroll
SS – Carroll/Casilla/Nishioka
3B – Valencia/Hughes/Carroll
LF – Revere/Willingham/Plouffe
CF – Span/Revere
RF – Willingham/Plouffe/Revere/Kubel
Oops
Forgot to add DH. And removed Kubel from RF.
C – Mauer/Doumit/Butera
1B – Morneau/Mauer/Doumit
2B – Nishioka/Casilla/Carroll
SS – Carroll/Casilla/Nishioka
3B – Valencia/Hughes/Carroll
LF – Revere/Willingham/Plouffe
CF – Span/Revere
RF – Willingham/Plouffe/Revere
DH – Plouffe/Doumit/Morneau/Kubel
Plouffe can't throw at SS
Throwing in the outfield is very different. Plouffe is fast enough to play a decent corner outfield and has an arm strong enough for RF.
Precisely
I think he could be a poor man’s Cuddyer.
Thanks for reading.
by brandonwarne52 on Dec 15, 2011 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
Kubel
Shipley reported yesterday the Twins told Kubel they’re not interested anymore.
Thanks for reading.
by brandonwarne52 on Dec 15, 2011 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
Roster Spots
I see Matt Maloney taking the 5th spot in the rotation. He is out of options and fits the Twins pitching method to a tee. He was a pretty highly touted prospect a few years ago and injuries set him back. If he is and stays healthy I see him being a solid #5 for us.
The bullpen has some candidates on the 40 but only a few don’t have options so if Spring rolls around and these guys are decent they are going to be in the bullpen to start the year.
Bullpen:
Capps
Perkins
Burnett
Jeff Gray
Duensing
Esmerling Vasquez
Manship
Swarzak has an option left so I imagine they will keep him as a starter in AAA in case of emergency… as well as Liam.
I see Nishi as the starting 2B this year despite what happened last year… and Willingham moving to RF to open up LF for Revere. There is no way in my mind that Gardy has Revere on his bench this season. He loves him too much.
Span certainly looks expendable… move Revere to CF (love the range but the arm is scary bad though), keep Willingham in LF and sign Kubel??? (or Plouffe it up in Right).
The rotation is basically the same one that won 94 games in 2010. Injuries depleted this staff last year. If healthy this is a really good team again… if Mauer and Morneau are healthy it is a line-up that can definitely score runs… I know… those are a LOT of IF’s.
twitter@al_damlo.com
i hope not...
Blackburn and Maloney as the #4 and #5 starters is a recipe for distaster.
I also don't see how Span is expendable...
he is light years better than Revere right now, as Terry Ryan himself alluded to.
maybe not light years...
but I agree, Span is ahead. but they are similar… Span has value to other teams.
twitter@al_damlo.com
he also has value to US...
he’s got a great contract situation with us all the way through 2015. If we can get some impact guy for him, sure. But I don’t see that trade, especially right now with his concussion concerns. Let’s keep our only true leadoff hitter and let him rebuild value and help us this year.
That is what will probably happen
His value is diminished by the head stuff but his contract, his ability and the fact that Ben is nipping at his heals for PT leads me to think that of the guys on this team that can get us some help, it’s Span.
twitter@al_damlo.com
a year from now, sure...
or even 2 years from now, but i don’t really see any point in dealing him right now. not when you don’t have a capable replacement. and revere isn’t one, at least not yet.
Like I said, Span’s on a very team-friendly contract all the way through 2015, so no need to rush to trade him when we can still get great value for him 2 years from now. And at that point we should have Hicks/Morales/Arcia/Benson all ready to contribute. THAT is when I would look to deal him.
Prospects and value
With Benson just about ready… with Ben ready, with Wilingham here and the fact that we are rolling out a bullpen anchored by Matt Freeking Capps I would like to see the Twins move a player at the only position that we seem to have any ML depth at…
Again, I am not advocating it… I do not want to see Span traded but I can certainly justify the Twins doing so. No other OF in the org. will give us the return that Span would (IMO).
twitter@al_damlo.com
but...
1) not at this time. you’re just not going to get equal value for span at all right now, with his year last year.
2) revere is NOT a capable replacement for him, at least not yet, and may never be. he’s not. so if you move span you’ve just created a new hole.
it should also be noted...
that from everything I’ve ever heard Terry Ryan is a huge Denard Span fan. He knows his value. I just don’t see him moving anytime soon.
It would make more sense to me
To move Revere.
But I don’t think they will or should move either of them, at least not before mid season.
I don't think Ben is nipping at his heels
If Span’s healthy, he’s the starting center fielder and lead off guy, just for his ability to take pitches and get on base.
100% agree.
Plus Span makes a lot of contact on foul balls and works the count well
Agreed
You can’t move Span. Revere is only half the player.
Thanks for reading.
by brandonwarne52 on Dec 15, 2011 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
I like Maloney a lot...
Blackburn has had some success in the past… we will see what he can do. There is no doubt he is in the rotation. The success of this team is not going to be on how the #5 does… it will be on 1-3. If Baker, Liriano and Pavano are mediocre or worse this team has no chance. They need to step up.
twitter@al_damlo.com
sure...
but having a terrible 4 and 5 (which is what that would be IMO) does not help.
If they are terrible
there is no doubt… but I have much more faith in Blackburn and Maloney than that. The skill is there to be reasonably successfull MLB pitchers. I just hope they can put it together.
twitter@al_damlo.com
i hope you're right...
i just wouldn’t count on it. we NEED a rotational upgrade.
Swarzak is out of options...
…added to the 40-man roster on 11/19/2008. Optioned to Rochester in 2009, 2010 and on April 29, 2011.
I like Swarzak...
but more in the Matt Guerrier role, personally. I think he can be a highly effective long reliever for us (and maybe more) for years. I just wouldn’t put him in the rotation if I could avoid it.
Span won't get traded
Span won’t get traded unless it’s for some ridiculous deal.
Revere doesn’t have the OBP (yet) to consistently lead off.
Tell that to Gardy. He is fast and a CF. To Gardy, that means leadoff.
Much like light/non hitting middle infielder = 2nd in lineup.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
I’ll respectfully disagree.
Revere is aggressive and we’ve seen how much havoc he puts on the defense/pitcher. The only reason he was lead off last year was because Span was out and no one in the light up was as fast as Revere who could beat out infield hits for singles.
Secondly – You want high OBP for your #1 and #2 hitters, especially when they are in front of a #3 and #4 hitter like Mauer and Morneau.
*Your lead off man gets on base and your #2 gets on base. All of a sudden you have RISP with Mauer up to bat. You can’t walk him because you’ll juice the bases for a HR threat in Morneau.
*This is in a perfect world where Morneau and Mauer come to Spring Training and leave Spring Training healthy.
You are preaching to the choir. I am not Gardy.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
"Secondly – You want high OBP for your #1 and #2 hitters"
I agree with this. Based on almost all evidence, Gardy does not. Hell, he plugged Repko into the leadoff spot when Revere needed a day off. He does not like messing with his lineup.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
Uhh..
I’m pretty sure Gardy used like 130 something different line ups last year.
No one else can bat lead off in our lineup. Repko has speed. #1 batter needs speed.
#1 batter should not be an out machine. That is more important than speed. The guy getting the most plate appearances should not have an OBP less than .300.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
Can you revise that? Not sure what you mean when you follow up “#1 batter should not be an out machine.” with
“That is more important than speed.”
"OBP trumps speed"
is what he’s saying. And he’s right.
Gotcha
Makes sense now, and I agree.
But no one had a high enough OBP last year.
Span did when healthy, but Revere is not Span.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
agreed...
not to mention gardy’s weird fascination with having (no matter who it is) a MI in the 2 spot, etc. he’s done this for years.
Did you guys not remember Mauer batting #2 in 2010? Pretty sure he did for at least a few (4+?) games when he was hitting into DPs like there was no tomorrow.
I think he had 14 before anyone in the league had double digits… and league I mean MLB not just AL/NL.
Yes but… Mauer seriously hit balls into double plays. It didn’t go out of the infield. He literally was the epitome of what how to not hit into a double play.
Regardless he has batted 2 before and Gardy has moved his lineup around a lot.
sure...
but you can’t deny there have been a lot of highly questionable #2 hitters/middle infield #2 hitters decision by Gardy over the years.
Who else could have filled that role?
You didn’t have anyone else that could fill that roll. Everyone else was a middle-of-the-lineup power threat. or LNP… so… there wasn’t a lot of options there.
Well, the obvious answer when healthy is Mauer.
It would be better to move Mauer up to 2 and the lousy hitters back to 8th and 9th.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
My main argument is the less plate appearances for the Tolberts and Casillas of the world, the better.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
Does Mauer ground into DPs? Yes.
Is that a valid reason for giving Casilla more plate appearances by hitting him second? No.
My take anyways…
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
Hopefully Carroll will fill the #2 spot this year.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
He is
I think that’s clearly evident? I thought it was stated somewhere that he will.
CF #1 – Span
SS #2 – Carroll
C #3 – Mauer
1B #4 – Morneau
RF #5 – Willingham
DH #6 – Doumit/Plouffe
3B #7 – Valencia
2B #8 – Nishioka
LF #9 – Revere
God I hope Morneau is healthy this year.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
Matter of circumstance
Is a simple 4-3 better? Because all that really means is that the guy ahead of you didn’t get on base.
Mauer should hit there, because then with Span on first, and the first baseman holding him on, the gap in the 3.5 hole is much larger.
Thanks for reading.
by brandonwarne52 on Dec 15, 2011 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
What's initially?
I think he hit 7th in his first big league game, against CC Sabathia :)
Thanks for reading.
by brandonwarne52 on Dec 15, 2011 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
Because Torii Hunter spent so much time leading off?
Gardy wants speed in his #2 hitter. That why you keep seeing MIs there. And when that’s Hudson or hopefully Carroll, that’s not such a bad thing.
When it’s Punto or Casilla in one of his many funks, then it’s a bad thing.
Span vs. Revere
First off… I love Span and don’t want him traded….
but to your point, Revere’s OBP was 30 points higher in the minors than Span’s was and Revere’s MLB data is pretty limited to say that he won’t have the OBP at the ML level to hit lead-off.
Two weak hitting, speed OF’s with below average (Span) and horribly below average (Revere) arms both in our starting OF doesn’t make much sense to me.
twitter@al_damlo.com
Range
In Target Field I don’t think arms matter as much as range and speed.
*note*
Which was clearly evident by how awful Delmon Young was.
Good arm, bad range, bad defense, bad approach to the ball.
I think both matter very much
Given the choice, I chose range in cavernous TF too but the arms are so bad that it starts to diminish the impact range can give a team.
twitter@al_damlo.com
Catching the ball is more important
then throwing in the outfield. Revere is great at catching the ball.
by b1 on Dec 15, 2011 7:26 PM EST up reply actions
Minor League Track Records
…have to be thrown out when comparing the two. OBP doesn’t stand alone; it’s AVG driven. Until Revere proves he won’t have the bat knocked out of his hands in the bigs — still a big IF — you can’t count on him.
And that OBP was driven by a .326 minor league average. Use ISO OBP (OBP-AVG): Revere’s is .059 and Span’s was .069 (and more importantly, .076 in the majors).
Thanks for reading.
by brandonwarne52 on Dec 15, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
it's also about fielding...
i’d love to see the number of infield singles revere got in the minors compared to the majors. i bet it’d be a pretty huge difference just based on fielding skills.
They have to be thrown out?
This is Twinkietown Brandon… not Crazytown… (JK… I just thought that line was clever)
;)
But to say downplay his OBP because it was driven by hits? Come on…
Revere made it to the Bigs 2 years at 2 years younger than Span… Let’s not quite count out his big league potential just yet.
On top of that you show a 1 base per 100 PA’s difference in their ISO OBP? Talk about marginal…
Span is better than Revere right now… and if I had to bet I would say he always will be slightly better… but let’s give the kid a chance.
twitter@al_damlo.com
OBP
I’m telling you that’s how OBP works. Traditionally, the OBP-AVG for a player is just about always consistent. So a guy that usually has .050 difference will be a .250/.300 guy, a .300/.350 guy, or a .275/.325 guy.
Thanks for reading.
by brandonwarne52 on Dec 15, 2011 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
Ohhh, that's how OBP works... (eye roll and a SMH)
lol… ;)
My point was that statistically a 1 base in 100 PAs difference is so fine that there basically isn’t any difference. Standard deviation could keep the same skill level player in that same range within 1 to 2 stdev.
But you downplayed the fact that Revere got on base more in the minors than Span because he got more hits. I just don’t think that is fair. All we have is minor league data (for the most part) to compare them…
As far as “the bat being knocked out of his hands”… Revere has basically the same indicators that Span does:
Span hit 1 HR every 242 minor league PAs… He has hit 5 in the last 1000+ PAs at the Major League Level
Revere hit 1 HR every 350 minor league PAs… he’s yet to hit 1 at the ML level.
If extra bases are any indicator Span hit 1 extra base hit every 23 PA’s in the minors while Revere hit 1 every 20 PAs…
My point with this is neither one has any power… but at 4 years younger he doing very similar things to Span now… On top of this Ben has shown very good balance vs. LHP and RHP … (as has Span)
I don’t know why I am defending him so much… the first time I saw him I said “Nah.” but he is pretty fun… gets to everything in the OF – now, he can’t throw it back to the infield but that’s another story.
Come on Brandon… let him play… let him play…. let him play… let him play…
twitter@al_damlo
there are other reasons you cannot compare span to revere
For one, Span was pretty bad in the minors. He broke out his final season. That’s pretty rare, and while Revere could suddenly improve on his numbers in the majors, that isn’t something you can count on, and quite frankly, he has not shown the signs that he can do it.
Revere also has no power. Period. Span at least showed some in the minors. His high minor league average is bolstered by one season where he nearly hit .400 in Beloit. That season is looking more and more like an outlier. Everything I’ve seen of Revere says 4th OF. He has no power, his OBP is nothing special, he can hit singles, and he’s got great range… oh, and his arm makes Johnny Damon’s look like a canon… I see no evidence thus far that he can be a competent starter. If this is a rebuilding year, I’d be OK letting him have one of the spots to keep it warm cheaply, but if they want to contend, Revere is not a starting option… If you want him to improve, he needs to be in Rochester with Benson
by diehardtwinsfan on Dec 15, 2011 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
Yep. Also, LASIK...
Span had LASIK before that breakout and it changed him forever. He’s been a completely different player since.
Revere
Played in 117 games and had 481 plate appearances. That’s more than “pretty limited.”
It's one season - not even a full one at that
That’s pretty limited.
That’s like saying Danny Valencia will be an all-star based off his 2010 campaign rolls eyes
Yes and no
It can tell you quite a bit, but you really need to reel off about 1000 PA to know much about a player, at least at first.
Thanks for reading.
by brandonwarne52 on Dec 15, 2011 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
Tom Kelly....
…is crazy. That’s six seasons of data…..or in other words, as long as you control a guy.
Unless he means minors included. Even then, that’d only be for guys drafted as high schoolers, I think.
Thanks for reading.
by brandonwarne52 on Dec 15, 2011 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
Wrong, it's 1000
And he meant in the negative sense. That is, if a guy like Lew Ford starts out hot, just give him more pAs and watch his production deteriorate. The league adjusts, players don’t tend to as easily. Kelly never said, “Just wait until we give the guy 1000 PAs with a .600 OPS. We’ll know by then if he’s capable of better.” If he did, we would have seen Jarvis Brown playing center field in 1993.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
You're probably right...
It was probably 1000…. but I could have sworn that he said it takes about 5 full MLB seasons before someone should be considered a ML hitter. Maybe that is the confussion.. I mispoke.
twitter@al_damlo
The lat time Revere had an OPS above .800 was in Beloit
Span has had an OPS above .800 in High A, AAA and twice in the majors.
They really are not close. Revere’s upside is as a .700 hitter. More likely, he’ll hit .650. You have to have more than range to be an everyday player with his offense at any position, least of all left field. Span can hold his own anywhere in the outfield, especially center.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I agree.... and said it multiple times here...
Span is much better than Revere… But if you can get a guy like Storen for Span, plug Revere in (who is 4 years younger and doing similar ~ again, not as good but ~ things) I wouldn’t fault the Twins for making that move.
Now, there is no way I would trade Storen for Span if I am Washington but hopefully you get what I am getting at. I am not saying you should/do agree with me… just a thought.
twitter@al_damlo
that sounds about right to me...
as we presently stand.
Seems high
The bullpen has two above average pitchers at the moment. The rotation is also still a mess. I can’t see them above .500 until they address the pitching staff.
I am not as down as you are with our rotation...
but I think a couple of bullpen additions would be really nice…
2 off hand that I can think of-
Chad Qualls – other than 2010, which was a year he fought through tendinitis the entire season, he has been rock solid… and at 33, he still has years left. 2 years, $7.5M – money well spent.
Neshek… come on Twins – everyone loved Neshek! 2 years removed from Tommy John he should be ready to jump back into a prominent role with a club… why not ours? 1 Year, $1M – reclamation project.
twitter@al_damlo
Blackburn
Yes, I do think Blackburn is guaranteed a rotation spot even after a rough 2012.
I know it was a typo, but I’d like to think you’re a soothsayer instead.
Proud contributor to Daily Norseman and SB Nation Minnesota.
Follow @eric_j_thompson
by Eric J. Thompson on Dec 15, 2011 1:42 PM EST reply actions
The caption in that picture should read
Alexi Casilla can play second base with his eyes closed.
Remember, remember the seventh of November.
I'm optimistic about this season
I would not be shocked if we improved 20-25 wins from last year.
You can look at Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau as possible additions to the club. Face it, neither one looked remotely like themselves last year. Having one of those back at their All-Star level would make a big difference. Both? Lets put it this way, if the M&M boys have All-Star-like seasons this is an 85 win team.
Then you add Baker, Span, (a good)Liriano (…etc) and we’re looking at the contender we’re used to seeing.
"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona." ~George F. Will
If absolutely everything goes right they win the WS....
I don’t think everything’s gonna go right, or even close to it. Its unrealistic to think Morneau, even if he’s healthy this year, will return to his old numbers (at least not right away…).
This Twins team is one giant IF and that scares me.
"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona." ~George F. Will
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