Twins Officially Sign Josh Willingham: Contract Breakdown and Analysis

by Jesse on Dec 15, 2011 12:51 PM EST in News

Twitter is blowing up with the news that the Twins have made the Josh Willingham signing official. He'll get three years, earning $7 million in both 2012 and 2013, with the possibility of adding another million on top of all that in 2014 should he reach 525 plate appearances in '13. It's a good deal, and here's why.

Over the next three years, each win above replacement should cost somewhere just north of $5 million dollars, depending on the baseball and more wide-ranging fiscal markets. With the understanding that we want to be conservative we'll estimate that from 2012 to 2014, when Willingham's contract expires, cost for each win above replacement will average at $5.25 million.

Exactly just how friendly is this contract for the Twins? Very.

			Contract Values
Year	Salary	Cost/WAR	Even (Sal = WAR)	1 WAR	2 WAR	2.5 WAR *	3 WAR	4 WAR
2012	$7 M	$5.25 M	1.3 WAR	- $1.25 M	+ $3.5 M	+ $6.75 WAR	+ $8.75 M	+ $14 M
2013	$7 M	$5.25 M	1.3 WAR	- $1.25 M	+ $3.5 M	+ $6.75 WAR	+ $8.75 M	+ $14 M
2014	$7 M	$5.25 M	1.3 WAR	- $1.25 M	+ $3.5 M	+ $6.75 WAR	+ $8.75 M	+ $14 M

Basically, for Willingham to be worth $21 million over three years, and to make the contract equal to on-field performance, he'd have to accumulate 5 wins above replacement. Barring injury or a sudden loss of skill, that shouldn't be a problem.

More analysis after the break.

(*) Over the last six seasons, since Willingham has become a full-time player, he has averaged 2.5 WAR per season. If he averages that production over three years his market value performance would be $13.75 million per season. Multiply that by three, and you get $41.25 million dollars. Let me make this blatantly obvious:

If Josh Willingham maintains his averages, he will have been worth almost twice what the Twins will pay him. And if he exceeds those numbers, the value of this contract obviously becomes even greater.

To be honest, I'd be surprised if he maintained his 2.5 WAR-per-season average at this point in his career. We're paying a guy for his age-33, 34 and 35 seasons, so it's unrealistic to expect him to perform like he has through his prime. But that doesn't make this a bad deal. It's still a very good one.

Let's play out a scenario. Willingham comes in and blows everyone away in 2012, and racks up three wins above replacement. In 2013 there's some dropoff, but he's still a very solid player while coming in just under his career averages and sports two wins. Finally, in 2014 at age 35, we see he's near the end and he accumulates just 1 WAR as he loses time to guys like Aaron Hicks, Joe Benson and Oswaldo Arcia. In this scenario he still averaged two wins above replacement, meaning he would be worth $10.5 million dollars over market value.

Michael Cuddyer might be on his way out. And if that happens, we'll lament his departure appropriately. But this is a time to welcome Willingham into the fold. He fits Minnesota's needs, the contract is very team friendly, and by all accounts I've read he sounds like he's a pretty good guy. As Twins fans, we like good guys. It's not fair to punish him just because so many of us will miss Cuddyer.

I'll tell you this much: it's nice to be fully behind this decision. Willingham is, a good move, a responsible move, and it turns the off-season in favor of Terry Ryan and crew.

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Comments

I'm not sure wins are worth $5M to the Twins

They’re worth that much to the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies and Angels but I think the Twins are around $4M/win. The key for the Twins is they’re around a 75-80 win team as currently constructed. Each marginal win is worth quite a bit.

by DJL44 on Dec 15, 2011 12:57 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

I can't find it right now...

But there’s an article out there somewhere that analyzes how the $ value of WAR varies with wins. Basically, WAR is most valuable for teams on the cusp of winning a division and least valuable for teams running away with, or in the cellar of, a division.

I think the Twins are a much better team than 2011 showed. Assuming good health and a pitching upgrade or two, I’d say they qualify as a team on the cusp of a division title and that makes WAR valuable.

by spanspanspan on Dec 15, 2011 1:19 PM EST up reply actions

Makes a lot of sense.

Remember that the pitching rotation we have now was the one that netted us a title in 2010… granted we did have some exceptional performances by the likes of Morneau with his MVP caliber half-season and a healthy Span, Mauer, super-hot-streak July Delmon.

by Dan Cao on Dec 15, 2011 1:22 PM EST up reply actions

Plus ace-like Liriano, and a good bullpen (even without Nathan).

by Jesse on Dec 15, 2011 1:26 PM EST up reply actions

True.

We have neither of those coming into 2012, as of yet.

Liriano is so… well. He reminds me of the tilde sign (~) he’s mediocre, gets on a hot streak, sucks for awhile, then mediocre again.

by Dan Cao on Dec 15, 2011 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

Different issue

You’re thinking of something else. The ~$5 million per win refers to the cost of acquiring production on the free agent market. That’s the same for every team.

How much a signing really benefits a team is another issue- is it worth paying Willingham to take the Twins from 74 wins to 77? The problem of course is that there’s a lot of uncertainty. By signing Willingham, as well as Carroll, Doumit, and Capps, the Twins are clearly betting that they can contend. Otherwise the signings would seem to have a questionable return, other than making it look like they tried.

by drivlikejehu on Dec 15, 2011 1:40 PM EST up reply actions

Getting above .500 makes a huge difference

Being within 5 games of first place fills Target Field in September. Going from 75 wins to 85 wins is on the steep part of the curve.

by DJL44 on Dec 15, 2011 2:06 PM EST up reply actions

There are 2 numbers

One is WAR valued as marginal return on 1 win, the other is cost of 1 win. The curves are fairly close in the middle.

by DJL44 on Dec 15, 2011 2:08 PM EST up reply actions

Just to point out

In the article Jesse isn’t quantifying the cost of a win on the market, he is quantifying the marginal benefit of a win to the Twins.

by DJL44 on Dec 15, 2011 2:10 PM EST up reply actions

?

Immediately after the break, Jesse referred to his “market value.” I don’t know where you are getting this. Looking at marginal benefit over 3 years would be very difficult and highly speculative… I don’t know how it could even be done.

by drivlikejehu on Dec 15, 2011 2:56 PM EST up reply actions

Nope

No, Jesse was referring to the cost of a win on the (free agent) market.

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by AdamOnFirst on Dec 15, 2011 3:04 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, he made a mistake

In order to assess whether the contract is good for the Twins you have to assess the value of a win to the Twins. Willingham’s contract is fair compared to the market. That doesn’t give you the surplus value to the Twins.

by DJL44 on Dec 15, 2011 3:11 PM EST up reply actions

Not sure I did.

In order to assess if the contract is good, you compare it to how you expect the market to react over the next three years. It’s pretty simple. If we can estimate how much the market can expect to pay for a win on the FA market and compare it to the contract signed, you can tell if it’s a good contract or a bad one.

Assessing what the value of a win is to the Twins is another matter altogether.

by Jesse on Dec 15, 2011 4:24 PM EST up reply actions

But you can't make this statement then

“meaning he gave the Twins $10.5 million dollars in surplus value”

What you mean is he performed in excess of $10.5M over market value, not in surplus value to the Twins. Surplus value also includes subtracting out the actual player on the Twins roster Willingham would replace. It would also consider the marginal value of those wins.

Market value and value to the Twins are not that different in this case. The Twins don’t really have an on-roster replacement that is better than 0 WAR and the value of a marginal win to the Twins over the next 3 years is pretty high.

by DJL44 on Dec 15, 2011 5:40 PM EST up reply actions

Right, that was my mistake.

Over market value, not surplus.

by Jesse on Dec 15, 2011 6:02 PM EST up reply actions

Also, marginal wins are a different issue.

And it isn’t something I tackled here. I imagine that in a post that was talking about the value of a win to the Twins, discussing marginal wins matters.

Or maybe I’m missing something. I wasn’t trying to be broader in scope here than simply assessing how much the Twins paid for wins compared to value on the free agent market.

by Jesse on Dec 15, 2011 4:29 PM EST up reply actions

This is a good pickup

both in terms of contract value and player skill set.

By the way, has anyone checked to make sure Shecky Shouhan is alright? FIrst Torii, than LNP, now Cuddy, who is he going to pour unconditional praise and admiration on?

by tc_brent on Dec 15, 2011 3:30 PM EST reply actions

Ben Revere most likely

Why not, it takes grit to score a inside the park homerun when you have only a unsure triple and sure double, even if you get thrown out by a mile.

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by Jessy S on Dec 15, 2011 4:23 PM EST up reply actions

Whoever talks with him the most

Twins players should just boycott him. Maybe then he’d actually do his job instead of praising those who give him access and scorning the rest. He’s the CJ of sports journalism.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 15, 2011 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

CJ

Nice line!

by clutterheart on Dec 15, 2011 5:39 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Sabermetric analysis of the signing

Tom Tango’s analysis of the Willingham signing (and he is using $5mm per WAR as the current cost per win on the open market):

Willingham: 3/21, paying for 1.85, 1.35, 0.85 in 2012-14.

Two-minute blink evaluation:
- pretty good hitter
- somewhat bad fielder at an easy position
- 75% playing time

So, +1 and change win as a hitter, -1 and change as a fielder. League-average player, or 2.25 WAR per 162G.

Give him 75% of that, and he’s 1.7 WAR. 3/19 would be the blink-value.

Bingo.

Fangraphs readers suggested: 2.4 × 8 per year.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/contract-crowdsourcing-2011-12-results/

Using my little trick, that gives us a value of "10.4" points. In order to get that on a 3 year deal, that would imply 7.4MM$ per year, or 22MM$ over 3 years.

Bingo!

If we wanted something more "serious" about translating the 2.4 × 8 per year from Fangraphs, I’ll offer you this:

If you forecast him for 1.93, 1.43, 0.93, then each year will give you: 9.65, 7.51, 5.1.

That means a 2 year deal is 17.16$
A 3 year deal is 22.28$

If you take 60% of the first, and 40% of the second, you get:
2.4 years for 19.21MM$, or 8MM$ a year.

So, the implied Fangraphs forecast was for his WAR in 2012 to be 1.93."

by AM. on Dec 15, 2011 5:06 PM EST via mobile reply actions 2 recs

Excellent work, thanks for this.

A far better sabermetric analysis than what I could ever do.

I do think he’ll top 1.93, 1.43 and 0.93 WAR per the FanGraphs estimate, though. Which only works in our favor.

by Jesse on Dec 15, 2011 5:21 PM EST up reply actions

Tango does great stuff of the cost of FA

There is a great thread on his site called “Sabermetric moves of the off-season” in which Tango and a few other sabermetric guys discuss each big off-season move; they can peg the accurate values pretty well. He has formulas that calculate WAR for players, as well as team win expectancies. He always factors in .5 win less each year of aging.

by AM. on Dec 15, 2011 9:16 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Tango also consults for the Mariners now

One of the regular contributors on his site is the guy who does the Marcel projections.

by AM. on Dec 15, 2011 9:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Tango is the guy that does the Marcel projections

At least he used to.

by Luke in MN on Dec 16, 2011 8:38 AM EST up reply actions

So the Twins slightly overpaid for Willingham being we're not the Yankees, Red Sox, or Philllies

And we’re not a run-away divison winner (like Detroit)

IMO he’ll play at $5 or 6MM per season but at 7MM for 3 years is a generous deal imo to Willingham.

Then again Cuddyer’s market was supposed to be $12MM per year and therefore Josh W would have likely got closer to 9 or 10 Million a year.

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by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 15, 2011 7:57 PM EST up reply actions

Cuddy

I now live in a place where Twitter is blocked. Has cuddy tweated about this?

by clutterheart on Dec 15, 2011 5:21 PM EST via mobile reply actions

Joe C says the Twins still want him

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/135671298.html

wow that is a line up that could win some games!

by clutterheart on Dec 15, 2011 5:29 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Not with the current pitching staff they won't

by DJL44 on Dec 15, 2011 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

exactly w/ Hiroki Kuroda, Edwin Jackson and a solid BP arm then i could agree....

Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 15, 2011 7:59 PM EST up reply actions

and thats obviously not even close to happening, I think we won't even add 1 SP but a relief arm or two.

Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 15, 2011 7:59 PM EST up reply actions

yeah, I'd prefer an edwin Jackson to a cuddyer since they're both in the same neighborhood pricewise

Jackson will be a little more I expect, but we need the pitching more.

by Luke in MN on Dec 15, 2011 8:13 PM EST up reply actions

I'd be stunned if Jackson went 3/24

I bet his deal is a lot closer to 5/65

by Gunnarthor on Dec 15, 2011 11:56 PM EST up reply actions

could be...

but I just don’t see him getting that at this point. I mean, CJ Wilson had a LOT more hype than Jackson and he just got 5/$77M.

I bet Jackson has to settle for 3 or 4 years at the $10-12M range. Signing him for anywhere in the 3/$30M-$36M range I’d be in favor of.

by DJSkillz on Dec 16, 2011 12:22 AM EST up reply actions

This.

by Luke in MN on Dec 16, 2011 8:42 AM EST up reply actions

I like it

It needs more Kubel and Thome, we’ll see if Hypnotoad can DH, but I like it.

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by less cowbell, more 'neau on Dec 15, 2011 6:45 PM EST up reply actions

Your next starting pitcher

after the Catcher signings today I am certain the Twins will trade Butera and Revere if they sign Cuddyer to Houston for Brett Myers and 5 or 6 million to keep Myers payroll around 5 million Plus he has a team option for 2013 at 10-11 million. Houston has asked about Butera before and just traded their CF so they probably need a new one.

What’s the over / under on this?

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by doofus on Dec 15, 2011 6:36 PM EST reply actions

i'm not completely enamored with giving up revere for 1 year of Brett Myers...

(don’t think I’d pick up his option). And I’m not even a big Revere fan. But it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, and at least we’d be getting rid of the worst offensive player in the history of the Twins in the deal.

by DJSkillz on Dec 16, 2011 12:24 AM EST up reply actions

I'd be a big fan of that deal

Revere won’t get much more value than he has right now, imo. Trade him for an arm while you can.

Maybe they’re leaning towards that type of acquisition now that they’re rumored to be in pursuit of Cuddyer even after signing Willingham.

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by cmathewson on Dec 16, 2011 9:29 AM EST up reply actions

I'm for it in a general sense

(trading Revere and Butera) and getting a pitcher. You know we’re in agreement on those. I just think we may be able to get a pitcher under control for more than a year; that option is too high for Myers IMO. If we could rework/renegotiate that option year I guess I’d be in favor of it.

by DJSkillz on Dec 16, 2011 11:36 AM EST up reply actions

I think its a great deal for us

Considering I thought he’d sign for 3yrs/30m.

I could see the Twins trading for a SP like Myers (assuming Houston is still willing eat a chunk of his salary) and/or signing a back of the rotation guy like Joe Saunders , and adding a solid bullpen arm or two.

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by SooFoo Fan on Dec 15, 2011 10:11 PM EST reply actions

yeah, and still losing 85 games

by by jiminy on Dec 15, 2011 10:35 PM EST up reply actions

Still a great improvement over last season

There are plenty of reasons to be excited about 2013 with guys like Parmelee, Benson, Hendriks, Gibson…etc being ready or close to ready.

"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona." ~George F. Will

by SooFoo Fan on Dec 15, 2011 11:47 PM EST up reply actions

The modified Class A FA decision

Probably made Willingham much easier to sign and made Cuddyer more expensive to the Twins than to anyone else. Gleeman said the draft choices netted for losing Cuddyer amounted to about $5M. Add that $5M to 3-25 and signing Cuddy for the deal on the table amounts to 3 yrs-$30M, which I don’t think he is going to get from anyone else.

Joe C is still saying that the Twins are in on Cuddy. That brings two thoughts to my mind: 1) The Twins have serious concerns about Morneau. The man on the 40-man roster with the second most experience recently at first is Luke Hughes. 2) Obviously, the Twins are cool to bringing Jason Kubel back. If they are still in on Cuddyer, the could certainly afford Kubel, but they don’t regard Kubel that highly.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Dec 16, 2011 12:03 AM EST reply actions

Goog conclusions

I was thinking about the recent Parker Hageman post about how Willingham is built for Target Field. If the Twins are smart, they would heed Hageman’s advice, not just about WIllingham, but other talent they acquire.

Having watched left handers try to pull the ball in Target Field, I can’t agree more. The prevailing wind is in from right field, which is made even stronger by the wind tunnel created by the parking ramp and the Metropolitan Club.The wind tunnel effect knocks homers down. It also eddys around the stands and blows out to left field towards the pole. So it’s much easier for righties to hit homers in Target Field. Lefties who can drive the ball the other way down the line have a shot. But dead pull hitters like Kubel are not well suited to Target Field.

Combined with the high wall in right center and it’s no wonder Kubel has struggled to hit homers at home. It’s no exaggeration to say he lost 12 homers in 2010 going from the Dome to Target Filed. It would be silly for the Twins to pay for 2009 production when they know the best they’ll get from him is 2010 production. If they think they can sign two guys to replace four (Delmon, Kubel, Cuddyer, Thome), it makes more sense for them to spend a little more to sign Cuddy, all things being equal.

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by cmathewson on Dec 16, 2011 9:41 AM EST up reply actions

or change the park.

by DJSkillz on Dec 16, 2011 11:37 AM EST up reply actions

Not such a bad idea considering the lefty-dominated system

You could erect some kind of a wind break without affecting the natural aesthetics of the park. The easy thing to do would be to just put that same shimmering fabric you have on the ramp on the outside of the big metal gate between the plaza and the seating area.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 16, 2011 12:07 PM EST up reply actions

yup...

failing that, it’s an excellent point you bring up cmath. i’ve been a strong proponent of re-signing Kubel due to his talent and age, and relative cost. But I think you make a great point. He’s just not a great fit for the park, and he probably doesn’t want to play here anyway with how much it saps his power.

It’s impressive that the Twins are actually taking their park into account so much; just not a typical “Twins” move. Willingham and Doumit are excellent fits.

by DJSkillz on Dec 16, 2011 12:12 PM EST up reply actions

They used to focus on lefty hitters because of the Dome

Now they will need to focus more on righty hitters. Sano is a great start. Time for Hicks to reconsider switch hitting. Arcia, Rosario and Kepler, not so much.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 16, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions

Payroll...

The Willingham contract brings the current 2012 payroll to ~96 million. If the supposed cap was ~100 million, that doesn’t leave much for anymore major signings.

There are a few bullpen options that wouldn’t require much (Michael Wuertz, Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler, Peter Moylan, Joel Zumaya, George Sherrill), but signing Michael Cuddyer or Edwin Jackson would definitely push the total over 105 million.

There is also the possibility for trade and I would like to think the Twins would take a pass at young “inexpensive” pitchers like Jair Jurrjens or Gio Gonzalez but I don’t think we have the prospects to make it happen. Signing another “back-end starter” like Joe Saunders, Jeff Francis or Jon Garland is more likely.

The last option is signing an injury-risk pitcher like Rich Harden or Brandon Webb. If either could pitch 150 innings at the levels they have shown they have the potential to pitch it would be worth the minimal contract they should get.

by NickL1538 on Dec 16, 2011 1:13 AM EST reply actions