Twins a fit for Oswalt?
He's dropped his asking price on contract tenure down to a 1-year deal. The Twins may be interested in getting in on the bidding with just one year of risk. If he continues to decline, they're not on the hook for 2013+. If he stays the same or gets better, he'll be a solid and much needed addition to our rotation.
5 months ago
Purpledork
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At 1 year
The market for him is going to explode. If the Twins can get the right incentive-laden price, why the hell not?
Would like to see it but not gonna happen
his price will be too high and he can probably find a better team than the twins
The only way the Twins stand a chance is
If he has identified Target Field and the chance to be a difference maker in a pennant race as components of his value building mission.
I'd want an option too
I think he’ll get a 2 year deal in the end. A 1 year deal is just to help identify interested teams. I’d love to have him on the Twins. He’s a very good pitcher.
Oswalt with the Twins is a great deal.
I think he actually may have wilted under the lights of the East Coast. It is better to basically go the same route as Carl Pavano.
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Wouldn't be a bad fit
He’s not the pitcher he was but he’d be a nice cagey vet to plug in. Target Field might not be the worst place to improve a pitcher’s value although moving to the AL might not be great.
Eh, certainly true
But the NL East (even w/o a DH) isn’t the prettiest division to pitch in either and the AL Central isn’t so bad if you’re going to be in the AL.
eh...
not for this.
Considering age/price/American League (I don’t think his stuff can play here) I’d rather sign Harden/Pineiro.
really?
if it was a true one year deal Id definitely sign him. Worst case scenario you trade him at the deadline for something small.
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You guys have to be kidding
The dollars matter, of course, but if we can get him with only one year’s commitment we definitely need to be interested.
He’s certainly much more attractive than Pineiro.
i'm not so sure...
at least not in the AL and with his body breaking down. not to mention he’ll probably cost twice as much on a 1-year deal.
If we’re going to spend $8-10M on Oswalt I’d rather just spend $30M for 3 years on Edwin Jackson. He’s better, younger, and we need pitchers for 2013 as well.
I wouldn't say Jackson is better than Oswalt
Jackson’s inconsistency would be maddening to watch. He walks too many and uses far too many pitches… he’s almost like a right-handed Liriano with less upside.
I’d also say Jackson ends up considerably north of $30M, and could also end up with a fourth year guaranteed somewhere.
I would strongly prefer Oswalt on a one-year deal.
Because it's over after one year
But yeah, I’m okay with Jackson for 3/30. But the FO doesn’t seem to be. So I’ll take a year of Oswalt.
Also, I don’t think he’ll cost twice as much on a one year deal. Reading between the lines, he seems to be saying he’ll take less for one year so he can get another big contract after proving his body isn’t breaking down.
I bet he ends up somewhere around $8-10M for 1 year...
I’d think Pineiro/Harden (who I’d prefer both of) would win up around $4M or less for 1 year.
I think Oswalt’s just a name at this point. I also would strongly disagree that Edwin Jackson isn’t better than Oswalt at this point. This is not Oswalt from 3-4 years ago, and this is not Oswalt in the JV league either.
Let's look at some stats
And because you’re interested in Oswalts decline, let’s look at just last year
Piniero
ERA: 5.13
IP: 145.2
WHIP: 1.51
K/BB: 1.63
BABIP: .324
FIP: 4.43
Harden:
ERA: 5.12
IP: 82.2
WHIP: 1.427
K/BB: 2.94
BABIP: .315
FIP: 4.69
Oswalt:
ERA: 3.69
IP: 139.1
WHIP: 1.338
K/BB: 2.82
BABIP: .316
FIP: 3.44
Last yearh, Oswalt was by far the best pitcher in every category except K/BB, where Harden nosed him out in a pretty small sample size.
Obviously his stats need a discount for being in the NL, but there’s a lot of room for that adjustment that still leaves him the best pitcher. So, leaving cost aside, he’s the clear choice.
And given that he’d only be on the books for one year (or less if he’s shipped at the deadline), I’d say it’s probably worth the additional cost.
you can't just discount cost...
that extra $4-6M is huge. I’d take Harden or Pineiro when factoring in cost.
I’d take Jackson over all 3.
Again, I just don’t see Oswalt’s mediocre stuff playing in the AL at all.
and medically speaking...
it says something to me that Philly is making no effort whatsoever to bring him back, even on a 1-year deal.
The Phillies have Vance Worley to take Oswalt’s spot in the rotation. Why should they be interested when they already have his replacement?
"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it." - Ferris Bueller.
by Andrew Bryz-Gornia on Dec 20, 2011 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
Whether it's huge
Depends, I think, on whether they are going to try to sign another bat.
Having let Cuddyer, Kubel and Nathan walk, and having reduced the cost (ugh) of Capps, I think they can afford an extra $4-6 on the rotation.
BUT, if they can spend that extra $4-6 can get someone who can hit for the DH sport then I’m all for Harden or I guess Piniero.
ya, we shall see...
not like i’d be devastated if we brought him in; i just think there is a better use of resources and i think oswalt is overrated (especially for an al team) at this point.
I'd rather have Oswalt and no bat than Harden or Pineiro and a bat
Last year the Twins had two winning months. If you look at the game logs, they won a lot of those games on the backs of their starting pitchers as they struggled to score runs. They will struggle to score runs in 2012 whether they get another bat or not. They need another starter to give them a chance to win more of those games.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
but again...
if you’re going to spend $10M/yr on the rotation, shouldn’t that be spent on Edwin Jackson instead?
I suppose
Jackson at 3/30 would still be my first choice. But it’s good to have more than one option to upgrade the rotation in a meaningful way. I don’t think Pineiro is all that meanigful. Harden is a low risk/high (or low) reward guy based on his injury history. If they upgrade the rotation, they should do it in a meaningful way, imho.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
ya, i guess we just disagree...
on how effective oswalt can be in the AL at this point. I would expect something like 120 innings from here and an ERA north of 4.50 at this point in the AL. we shall see.
Fair enough
I project a bounce-back year. After last year’s injuries, I think he’ll be capable of being a work horse again. Is it stupid to expect another Jack Morris miracle? Maybe.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
OK, I'll bite...
…now that you’ve said it four times, what exactly is Oswalt not going to be able to do in the AL in Minnesota that he was able to do in Houston and Philly? What is this mythical “stuff” that render good NL pitchers helpless in the AL?
I get that they face pitchers.
I’d be ALL for an Oswalt signing. That’s one of those signings that the management comes out afterwards and says…this pit us over budget, but it was an opportunity we couldn’t pass up, so we went to Management and got approval.
by AM. on Dec 20, 2011 4:56 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
hitters are better in the AL...
it’s not just the pitcher/DH factor. offenses are just better and it takes better stuff to miss bats. i just don’t think oswalt has that stuff anymore. and i’m not alone; guys like keith law and others have been extremely leery about Oswalt making a switch to the AL at this point. i’ll try to find a link.
Keith Law used to be
employed as a scout or something. Now he just sits back and opines. Just saying.
pretty sure a gig he won't ever be fired from and not having to drive across the country outweighs being a scout
I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter
right...
doesn’t make him any less bright or reliable as a source of information. he talks to as many scouts as anyone in the industry.
that too
i was going at it as a he’s a pretty sharp dude, but your point is even better.
I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter
I'm not sure why so few innings
But that ERA is still way better than Harden and Piniero last year.
Actually it’s better than Harden the last two years and only 0.09 runs worse than Piniero over his career.
Which is not to say that I’d be eager to spend $10 mil on that performance, but as cmath said, I think he can actually bounce back from last year.
the more I read about Edwin Jackson
the less I want him. Id rather take a shot or two at a couple low risk/high reward types
I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter
The Twins are a fit for any decent pitcher with a reasonable starting salary and favorable contract
Anybody who says differently is stupid.
Remember, remember the seventh of November.
Go for it.
If the season tanks, I’m sure we could flip him to some NL team at the deadline.
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by John_Locke on Dec 20, 2011 3:02 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Jack Morris part II?
I’d be for it. I don’t think there’s a lot of separation between the top 5 available FA starters. But he at least has a longer history of excellence. If the price is right…
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Exactly what I was thinking
Although Roy has no Twin Cities connections, he is an aging ace who had an injury plagued walk year. I would think Oswalt will be motivated and while moving from NL to AL isn’t ideal, he would have the advantage of not being famiiliar to a great majority of AL hitters.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Dec 20, 2011 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
This makes so much sense for the Twins.
They’re in a weird place where they need to rebuild, yet can still compete for a playoff spot. A one year deal negates any sort of risk and helps deal with that awkward position.
Here's how I see it
If the Twins can get him down to 1-year, $5 million + incentives, then sign him. For a pitcher of his caliber, that would be a win in my book, especially since the alternatives are Pineiro, Francis, Maholm, Garland, etc.
"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it." - Ferris Bueller.
by Andrew Bryz-Gornia on Dec 20, 2011 5:56 PM EST reply actions
That would be a steal
And if they can get that, they must sign him.
But there is no way he will go that cheap.
I'd rather have Harden (or both to be honest)
Oswalt’s drop in Ks concern me, espeically pitching in teh NL where he gets someone slightly better than Drew Butera instead of a DH. I’d still take him though on a 1 year deal. I suspect he’s going to be pretty pricey given that he really wasn’t all that bad despite the injury.
by diehardtwinsfan on Dec 20, 2011 6:21 PM EST reply actions
Definitely worth checking out
… though I’d guess that the sudden drop of the long term commitment will drive up the one year price considerably. A lot of above supporters are talking about an $8-10 million contract. What if the price is $12 million? $14 million? I think the price could easily reach that high…
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I think that's backward
I think he’s saying I won’t do multi year for what you are offering but I’ll take it for one year to show I am worth more after I bounce back.
I still think $10 is the most we should think about.
if we're talking 1 year deals, here's another option...
Kuroda. He may only cost $3-4M more than Oswalt and is also seeking a 1-year deal. I’d look to him if we’re talking numbers that high for 1 year.
Sure.
I’ll take the track record of success, the high upside, and the playoff experience (he pitched some big games back for the Astros, too) over the unpredictable other three we’ve mentioned (E-Jack, Pinero, and Harden).
If we’re ranking this:
1) Oswalt at 1/$8.00 M (add incentives for innings, ERA, etc.)
2) Jackson at 3/&20-27 M
3) Harden at 1/$3.00 M
4) Pinero at 1/ $5.00 M
I would hope we could get Oswalt and Harden, but that might be out of our reach.
#2
Starting pitching will be a need for years to come. I like the idea of getting someone that could potentially address that need beyond this season. I do have serious doubts that Jackson can be had at that price… still blown away by the thought that Darvish is worth 51+ 15/year.
if darvish gets 5 years/$75M...
I’ll eat my hat.
I still think he gets something like 6/$50M, plus the posting fee. This is what Dice-K got and would put his “total money allocated” at around $16-17M/year, which is reasonable. Almost a bargain when you consider his “open market” value and the other things he brings to the table in longterm financial avenues for a club.
I wouldn't call Dice K's contract a bargain
Even the best Japanese pitchers don’t last long in this league.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
i wouldn't either...
but if darvish does get around $16-17M/yr total and he transitions as well as I think he will (Dice-K’s first 2 years were pretty damn good) then I’m saying you can make the argument that it’s a bargain.
It wouldn’t be in the traditional sense relative to other starters on the market and allocation for performance, but when you factor in the longterm financial impact I think it would be. Depends on how you value that Japanese market; what’s it worth to an organization? $5M/yr? $10M/yr? I’d love to see some of the backend calculations on that from an organizational standpoint.
All I can say is I'm glad the Twins don't take risks like this
Comparatively speaking, the risk for Nishioka was peanuts. A lot of scouts thought his skills would translate to this league. I don’t see it. It boggles my mind how a guy like that can win a batting title. If he can win a batting title, the hitting in that league is pretty poor. It is easy for a pitcher like Dice K or Darvish to stand out in a league like that.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
sure...
we don’t have the cash for risks like this. i’ve said it before, but i STILL think nishioka’s signing is a very wise business gamble; as for baseball, that’s a completely different story. but from a bottom-line point of view, i think the twins did just fine.
yeah i think it was a reasonable gamble as well
I write everywhere. You're probably better off following me on twitter
We'll see
He could bounce back some. It would be hard not to improve on last year. But he has serious tools limitations. As a hitter, he’s a switch hitting Ben Revere with more strikeouts and less contact. In the field, he has decent range at short, but he struggles on hard-hit balls. And his arm will always be below average.
We knew all these things before we signed him. Yet we’re paying him what we would pay comparable guys on the market who don’t need to learn to play in the US. Jamey Carroll, e.g. Or, better yet, why not spend a little bit more for JJ Hardy?
He’ll be on the team all year. He might start 80 games and hit .280/.330/.320 while playing decent defense. Next year, he’ll be pushed by Dozier. The year after, he’ll be pushed by Dozier and Michael. We’ll spend $17-20 million for a guy who is barely hanging onto a job for three to four years. We complain about the Punto investment, which was less than this for a better player (defensively at least).
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
There's only 2 years left
If he improves a little this year they may be able to dump his salary next year to a west coast team. If he craters he might take a buyout. The only reason they keep him past his contract is if he improves enough to start.
There is a vesting option, I believe
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
My bad, it's a club option
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Go for it
I even thought he was a viable option for trade in 2010. For one year, this would be ideal. But I don’t see the FO doing it.
When I was a kid, I would cover a blue futon with a white blanket, prop it up with a fan set on high, and pretend it was the Metrodome. That should tell you a lot.
by MarshalltheIrish on Dec 21, 2011 8:16 PM EST reply actions
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