Offseason Blueprint and comparison vs. last year's roster

by DJSkillz on Dec 3, 2011 11:19 PM EST

Well, figured I'd throw out my offseason blueprint to the mix as well. Let's begin with a couple of assumptions:

1) That payroll will be around the $115M or so it was last year. Dave St. Peter's comments and Terry Ryan's own comments lead me to believe this.

2) That Denard Span, Joe Mauer, Jason Kubel, Justin Morneau, Francisco Liriano, and Scott Baker will be healthier this year. You could easily argue that those are the Twins' 6 best players on their roster (and I would argue that) and while I don't put all of the 2011 woes on injuries, any rational person has to put a huge share of the blame there.

3) Ben Revere, Joe Benson, Liam Hendriks, and Chris Parmelee all need a little bit more time before given starting roles.

With these three assumptions in mind, we go forward.

Move 1: Trade Carl Pavano for Huston Street and a prospect; I respect Pavano and what he has done for the Twins the last couple of years, but 1) I'm not sure he can continue, and 2) we can save his money on other areas of need and also solve a relief hole in the process. I would not deal a 200 inning pitcher for a reliever straight up, but if the Rockies toss in a prospect (and I'd guess they would agreeable to that) I'd do it. Street is due to make $7.5M this year and $9M in 2013, so it's a little steep, but he can bridge the gap to---hopefully---Carlos Gutierrez for the Twins. Also, this is a "realistic" option because it's been heavily rumored already.

Move 2: Trade Nick Blackburn and his contract for a "decent" NL reliever. I just don't have confidence in Nick Blackburn as an American League starter at this point, and this is a money-saving move too, but I still think he could help an NL club. Though we'll say we eat around $2M each year in 2012 and 2013 on this one. On the flip side, while Blackburn is not suited to relief, this also fills another Twins hole in the bullpen.

Move 3: Where do we solve the rotation? 2 moves. Edwin Jackson on a 3 year/$30M deal. Jackson is not without flaws, but he's another high strikeout guy with upside and you can argue that he's as good as CJ Wilson, which Dave Cameron eloquently did recently. And Rich Harden, as has been promoted on this board previously, on a 1-year/$3M deal. I'm not counting on big innings from Harden, but he can help for depth.

Move 4: Continuing with the pitching staff, I'm signing Michael Wuertz to a 1 year/$1M deal and hoping he bounces back to his former level. Low risk/high reward move.

Move 5: Sign Josh Willingham to a 1 year/$7M deal to play LF, RF, and 1b and bridge the gap in the OF. He made $6M in 2011 and this seems reasonable.

Move 6: Retain Jason Kubel on a 3 year, $21M deal. Why am I signing Kubel? These are prime years and he's a professional hitter this team still needs. We're likely getting the best years of his entire career with this deal, whereas guys like Beltran, Cuddyer, and Willingham are on the downswing. Also, Kubel will likely finish as a Type A at the end of this contract (even with the new CBA rules). I'd look to get him some time at 1b as well, as the Twins looked at doing in 2011.

Move 7: Sign a bench bat such as Andruw Jones for around 1 year/$2.5M. Just another RH bat to add to the mix.

Move 8: Extend Francisco Liriano to a 4 year/$40M contract. I believe his troubles have stemmed from overuse by the Twins (as expanded on in another post) and believe we're gambling low here. I believe this deal gives some risk/reward. If Liriano has a year like 2010 in 2012, he's likely to get a deal in the neighborhood of 4 years/$64M in my opinion. Whereas if he has a repeat of 2011, he's likely to still get a deal of around $3 years/$20M. This deal falls in the middle. And the Twins have a lack of starters after 2012, so I'm gambling here. So this is what we're left with:

Starting lineup;

CF-Denard Span-$3M; should be an upgrade over last year; return to some form of health

SS-Jamey Carroll-$2.75M; should be an upgrade over last year; can't be worse

C-Joe Mauer-$23M; see Span comment

1b/DH-Justin Morneau-$15M; more leery here, but again, can't be worse. And we have options for DH/1b.

LF/RF/DH/1b-Jason Kubel-$7M (extension estimate); see Mauer/Span comments.

LF/RF/DH/1b-Josh Willingham-$7M; should be comparable to Michael Cuddyer's production last year.

RF/DH/1b/backup C-Ryan Doumit-$3M; should be at least comparable to Jim Thome's production in 2011.

3b-Danny Valencia-$500K; see comments on Carroll/Morneau. Should be due for at least a modest rebound.

2b-Alexi Casilla-$1.5M (arb estimate); Casilla was plenty solid last year, but needs to stay more healthy.

Total starting lineup allocation: $62.75M

Bench:

Backup bench bat: Andruw Jones-$2.5M; upgrade

Backup MI: Tsuyoshi Nishioka-$3M; comparable

Backup OF; Ben Revere-$500K; comparable

Backup INF/OF; Trevor Plouffe-$500K; upgrade over last year's overall production

Backup INF; Luke Hughes-$500K; comparable

Total bench allocation: $7M

Total offense: $69.75M

Rotation:

Francisco Liriano-$8M (extension estimate/1st year); should be a major upgrade over last year

Scott Baker-$6.5M; should be better than last year's overall production

Edwin Jackson-$10M (3 year deal estimate); upgrade over Carl Pavano

Rich Harden-$3M; upgrade over Brian Duensing, even if half of his innings end up going to Hendriks or Swarzak

Kevin Slowey-$3M (arbitration estimate); due for a bounceback, but can't be worse than Blackburn last year

Total rotation allocation: $30.5M

Bullpen:

Huston Street-$7.5M; upgrade over last year's closer spot.

Glen Perkins-$1.5M (arbitration estimate); comparable production to last year

Michael Wuertz-$1M; upside; shouldn't be worse

NL reliever from Nick Blackburn trade-$1M; upgrade

Jose Mijares-$750K (arbitration estimate); return to health should help

Brian Duensing-$500K; major upgrade

1 of Anthony Swarzak/Liam Hendriks/Jeff Manship/Carlos Gutierrez/Alex Burnett/Jason Bulger/Kyle Waldrop/Deolis Guerra-$500K; upgrade

Total bullpen allocation: $12.75M

Total staff allocation: $43.25M

Total team payroll: $113M

Couple of quick thoughts: I think this team is markedly better than the 2011 team, with a likely uptick in or comparable production from almost every single position on the field. It also allows depth, with Joe Benson, Chris Parmelee, and Liam Hendriks all getting to start the year at AAA. I also tried not to tie this team down in longterm contracts; MI solutions are on the horizon in the form of Levi Michael and Brian Dozier, and potentially, Devin Marrero. OF solutions are on the horizon in the form of Benson/Hicks/Morales/Arcia, all of which I see as being ready by 2014 at the latest. The Jackson signing and Liriano extension help the 2013 rotation by putting 2 more quality pitchers under contract to go with Baker, Hendriks, Slowey, and Swarzak as possible solutions. Not to mention Alex Wimmers and Kyle Gibson, both of whom could contribute in 2013. And lastly, I've tried to retain prospects, with an eye towards continuing to monitor the trade market should an ace-level upside pitcher such as Felix Hernandez, Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke, or Matt Cain become available. What say you?

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Comments

1) the liriano extension sounds awfull----at this point if he has a great season GOOD i'll take the pick(s) .

2) you have to add Jared Burton and Jeff Gray to the mix for the 7th bullpen spot.

Probably safe its not gonna be Dedundo, Perdamo, Maloney, Wise, or Slama, Guerra, Diamond, Hacker
I think it comes down to Gutierrez, Manship, and maybe Burnett, Waldrop and Devries/Robertson.

3) i like where you’re going with a few moves though, like dealing Blackburn to an NL club….Reds? – there’s no way both Edwin Jackson and Josh Willmignham are both brought in I’d rather have Cuddyer and Kubel myself.

Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8

-pyatta Perry Club-
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Joe Mauer starts dating Bar Refaeli and creates a dynomo couple called JoBa. JoBa uses their superpower to turn Mauer into a new man and he starts mashing the ball. Bar brings her model friends to the Twins game and miraculously cures Morneau concussion issues. Joe and Justin combine for 62 HR and 203 RBI as the Twins ride the momentum of JoBa.

So yes, she is the key to the Twins season.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 4, 2011 8:42 AM EST reply actions

I'm not a fan of that Liriano extension, either.

If we were able to convince Liriano to sign a four-year deal after the season he just had, then 2011 has to weigh pretty heavily into the contract. We were talking about signing him for 4-$40 after 2010. That total has to come down a little.

With Willingham, there’s no way he signs a one-year contract with anybody. He’ll get 2 to 4 years from somebody. $7 million might be a good number for the first year of that deal.

by Jesse on Dec 4, 2011 9:32 AM EST reply actions

possibly on Willingham...

on Liriano, I think 4/$40 is about right if we want to keep him. He surely must not like how the Twins have handled him in his career so far, and he’s just a year away from FA.

by DJSkillz on Dec 4, 2011 12:29 PM EST up reply actions

oh, and I might just take a gamble...

on Cespedes vs. Willingham. He’s much better defensively and it sounds as if he’ll get a deal in the 6 years/$40M range. Or roughly $7M/yr. So that’d be a similar 2012 salary commitment. I don’t like committing too longterm to OF’s, but if the Twins believe in him, that would really free up them for a major trade or two (for pitching) with some of our OF prospects. And Cespedes is also likely to be about 100x the defensive OF’er that Willingham and Kubel are.

by DJSkillz on Dec 4, 2011 12:36 PM EST up reply actions

Overall, though

I think you’ve done a pretty decent job. There are a few moves I’m not big fans of – like signing Andruw Jones – but there’s no doubt that this team would probably be better than last year’s.

Things loosen up quite a bit with an extra few million to work with. So I like the Harden addition, and I like the idea of adding Jackson and Willingham.

by Jesse on Dec 4, 2011 9:37 AM EST reply actions

Andruw Jones is just a name...

could be replaced by anyone really. I’m not super high on him either; the point was just to get a fairly cheap guy that can play a position but still provide pop from the bench, which we need if Doumit is going to play regularly.

by DJSkillz on Dec 4, 2011 12:32 PM EST up reply actions

I dunno if we should rely

on Gut in a couple years. He might not be a positive clubhouse presence:

@CGutierrez44 Carlos Gutierrez
My farts are ridiculously smelly
2 Dec

by archie2227 on Dec 4, 2011 12:13 PM EST reply actions

My guess is that the Twins will go with 12 pitchers,

but in that case, I would just not sign Andrew Jones and pick 2 from your + SHS’s list of relievers.

I’m actually in favor of the Liriano extension. I think replacing Pavano with Jackson is probably an upgrade, but I’m still leary of giving $10mil/yr to a guy whose overall numbers, even recently, are solid at best.

by Caleb A on Dec 4, 2011 12:15 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Good stuff

I’ve been thinking along these lines. More later.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 4, 2011 3:09 PM EST reply actions

Regarding Liriano deal

I don’t see how they could justify that kind of money on him at this point. I don’t know if either side would ever consider a deal similar to Fausto Cormonas deal with lots of options on it. Maybe sign him to a 2 year guaranteed deal at 7-8 million a piece plus two option years at around 10-12 million per. I realize this adds up to the same but it gives the Twins an out if they have to but also gives Liriano some more guaranteed money if he doesn’t perform this year. He would still only be about 30-31 when he hits free agency which if he pitches 3-4 good years he would still be in line for a big payday down the road.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Dec 4, 2011 5:42 PM EST reply actions

You might have mixed up Kubel and Willingham's contracts...

Kubel will probably sign a 1 or 2 year deal for about 5 mil per…
Willingham will probably get 25 million at least. I think he’ll sign a 4 year 32 million dollar deal or something like that…. There is NO way he takes a 1 year deal unless someone offers something crazy like 1 year/14 million. He will get over 20 million.

by mak07 on Dec 5, 2011 1:01 AM EST reply actions

disagree...

mainly due to age. Kubel is in the prime of his career right now; his next 3 year or so should be the best of his career, age-wise. Willingham is starting his decline phase. Maybe he gets 3 years, but I doubt it. I’d say 1-2. Kubel will get at least 3 IMO.

by DJSkillz on Dec 5, 2011 1:34 AM EST up reply actions

Willingham is 32, Kubel is 29.

That’s all Kubel has on Willingham though.
Past 3 years combined:
WAR’s the past 2 years- Kubel: .5 and 1.3; Willingham 1.7 and 1.8
Not to mention the fact that Jason Kubel is a career .069 hitter in the playoffs. He is terrible in the clutch. He has 2 hits in 32 PA’s (3 walks) and 13 K’s. That’s from a guy who is known as only a hitter. He’s worthless in the field.
Not to mention the fact that Kubel hasn’t done ANYTHING since 2009. He’s just not as good at the plate as Willingham, he’s injury prone, and he has no glove. I can guarantee you Willingham gets a bigger contract than Kubel

by mak07 on Dec 5, 2011 12:54 PM EST up reply actions

Sorry, Another type. I wish there was an edit Button.

I was going to put past 3 years combine WAR, but in 2009 they both had WAR’s around 3. And lately Kubel hasn’t been able to stay healthy, which is another reason Willingham is more sought after this off-season.

by mak07 on Dec 5, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions

again, disagree...

1) those 3 years are important. Age doesn’t lie.
2) the whole “clutch” thing is garbage. and that’s an incredibly small sample.

Maybe he’ll get more only because he’s RH’ed (which is another terrible reason, because most pitchers are right handed), but I’d bet just about anything Kubel will provide better production over the next 3 years than Josh Willingham.

by DJSkillz on Dec 5, 2011 1:06 PM EST up reply actions

I've been watching this off-season very closely...

Willingham has 9 teams interested in him. Kubel has 1 that I’ve heard of.
I am not a fan of Kubel. I’ll admit that right now. I am not a huge fan of Willingham either, though. I personally would like us to stay away from both players. That being said, I expect Willingham’s contract to double Kubel’s. We’ll have to wait to find out…
It sounds like Rays are getting close on a deal with Willingham.

by mak07 on Dec 5, 2011 4:46 PM EST up reply actions

Solid for the most part.

Seems to be what most of the “talk” on Twinkie Town has about. Acquiring Willingham, a closer via trade, letting Cuddyer go and signing a SP.

I don’t like the Liriano extention, but I can see why you did it. The Twins need to prepare for the future, but right now the value of most of their pitching is at an all time low. By extending Liriano, you protect yourself from the cupboard going completely bare. However, Liriano is no ace. He has electric stuff, but lacks consistency. He hasn’t really shown ace material consistently since he pitched out of the 5 hole. So I’d move him down in the rotation, take some pressure off him and keep him from pitching against the opposition’s best guy.

I don’t like dealing Pavano. But if you deal him, I guess you could do worse than getting Street. Highly doubt you would get another prospect also. I’m extremely concerned about the pen as I was last year. Blackburn would be difficult to move, maybe eat some his salary.