Minnesota Twins Winter Meetings Primer, 2011
We've spent the last few days ramping up to the 2011 Winter Meetings - unequivocally the most exciting week of the winter for baseball fans who don't mind a little speculation. I know I love it. It's the possibility of everything. Right now, as we wait for it all to blow up tomorrow, anything could happen. Sure, the Twins won't be in on Albert Pujols or C.J. Wilson or Jose Reyes (since he just signed with the Marlins), but for all we know we might be on the cusp of the next J.J. Hardy trade (which actually didn't happen during the Winter Meetings at all) or Luis Castillo trade (which was).
Twins Needs
- Starting Pitcher: Right now, Minnesota has a lot of options sans the promise of quality or effectiveness. Without roster changes Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano are guaranteed rotation spots. You can probably pencil Nick Blackburn in for a fourth spot, barring the unrealistic scenario where two quality starters are brought in.Right now, the goal is to add one good starter.
- Corner outfielder: If both Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel don't return, the Twins have a very shallow talent pool to choose from in Ben Revere, Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni and Trevor Plouffe (who would be changing his primary defensive position and is unlikely to be a realistic option). Either right or left field could potentially be filled by somebody on that list, but asking those guys to provide positive value at two positions is a mistake. Especially if the front office plans on having this team win in 2012.
- Designated Hitter: Terry Ryan has said that the gap at DH is, at the present time, "a little bit by design". This is partly because Kubel's status is up in the air, but if leaving the DH slot open is by design they're mostly doing it because they aren't sure whether Justin Morneau will be able to play the field. If he isn't, well, then this team has a whole new set of issues.
- Relief Pitcher(s): We've heard that the organization plans to go external and are looking for a reliever with closing experience. That's a tricky one. We've also heard that there's no aversion to a return for Matt Capps. If we're being honest, and want the 2012 bullpen to not be a total liability, then whatever happens the front office needs to find a trio of quality relievers to line up with Glen Perkins; one of which has to be "The Closer". There's probably going to have to be some outside-the-box thinking to get this done.
- Middle Infielder: In spite of the addition of Jamey Carroll, it's still impossible to look at the group of players available and call them producers. Alexi Casilla, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Luke Hughes and Carroll is not an ideal foursome, so if the Twins can manage a way to add a guy like Martin Prado then it can only be seen as a positive.
- Right-handed power hitter: The nice thing about this need is that the Twins won't need to force him into a position, because there are so many places this guy could fit. Outfield, designated hitter and first base (if Justin is the DH) are the best places, but anywhere will do.
As of this evening, this is a list of players who have been tied to the Twins in recent days:
Edwin Jackson
Rich Harden
Jeff Francis
Mark Buehrle
Tsuyoshi Wada
Hisashi Iwakuma
Chris Capuano (signed with Dodgers)
Bruce Chen (re-signed by Royals)
Jonathan Broxton (signed with Royals)
That list is comprised entirely of pitchers, mostly starting pitchers, and that should make something crystal clear to everyone. Not many rumors have escaped the vests of the Minnesota front office - even the Carroll and Ryan Doumit signings were quiet until just before they happened - so it's pretty clear what this organization views as its number one priority for this week.
We'll see you in the morning.
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Ryan Doumit is the most likely DH
His signing adds depth at catcher but it also indicates that the team wants him as the DH. If Morneau can’t play 1B right away, he can DH and Doumit can be the everyday 1B until Morneau is ready. He and Mauer could swap positions once or twice a week so that Mauer can get a break from behind the dish.
As much as I would love to have Mark Buehrle in Twins pinstripes and have an undead battery a few times a season, I don’t see that happening. The bullpen is in absolute shambles and needs a lot more work than the rotation.
If that's right
It means Gardy will want a third catcher on the roster.
Which is a bad thing.
THe Twins have said all along that Doumit is their backup catcher. If they do plan on DH-ing him, it changes everything else on their to-do list the rest of the winter.
Right
And the list of available good catchers is dwindling. Butera had his chance. He is not a major league catcher.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
So, by your defination,
Ozzie Smith wasn’t a major league shortstop. Just because he doesn’t hit, it doesn’t mean Drew Butera doesn’t deserve to be backup catcher for the Minnesota Twins. All we are asking from him is that he play solid defense and get a few hits.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
Champagne SuperTolbert Saves the day!!!
Is that sarcasm?
Because yes, Drew Butera does not deserve to be the backup catcher for the Minnesota Twins because he doesn’t it.
Drew Butera makes Ozzie Smith look like Joe Mauer.
Ozzie Smith had a career OPS+ of 87
And had a career oWAR of 43. Try again.
"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."
Right
And Drew Butera had an OPS+ of 24 last year. I looked at the history of the Twins and was not able to find a player with more than 200 PAs and a lower OPS+. It’s some kind of franchise record.
Also, Drew Butera is a good catcher, but he’d never win a gold glove behind the plate. Ozzie Smith won 13 gold gloves.
Jessy S. has reached a new low: Comparing Drew Butera to Ozzie Smith.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
On the other hand, Drew Butera has reached a new high
Being equated with Ozzie Smith.
by ColossusOfRhode on Dec 5, 2011 1:29 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Is he solid enough?
Is Doumit a legit DH for the majority of a season? Normally, batting two catchers in your lineup isn’t a good thing. I realize Mauer isn’t a typical catcher, but couldn’t be fill the DH spot with a better option?
A lot depends on Cuddyer/Kubel
We offered both arbitration. Presumably, only one will come back (or none). Then it seems we will be in the market for another hitter (or two). If Doumit is the DH, Gardy will want a third catcher. Therein lies the problem. Butera can catch once in a while, but Gardy insists on starting his bench players at least once a week. He’d probably give Butera to Pavano again, and it would be 34 starts in the season. That’s not an appealing option. If, on the other hand, they signed another catcher, it would be fine. But Ryan has said he signed Doumit to be the primary backup, so I think that’s unlikely.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
They still need another catcher
Teams rarely make it through the season with only 2 catchers. It’s either Butera or Herrmann stashed in AAA.
Anybody but Butera
I’d take Lehmann right now. Hermann is behind him.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I don't have a problem with Butera in that role
That is, as a guy who’s only going to see the bigs for a game or two here and there when the two guys go down in front of him.
As long as it's primarily at AAA, fine
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I agree.
You’d think that Cuddy would make his mind up already. FO is probably in the market for one bat, one SP, and two RP to include a closer. Cuddy being the one bat. I’d prefer if they signed another bat in addition to Cuddyer as well, but I’m thinking Doumit is that other bat. Regardless, I hope they sign another solid backup catcher, but the market has thinned considerably.
What about Dioner Navarro? He had a $1M contract with the Dodgers and hasn’t been productive for a few years. I bet we could sign him for 800K.
It is the most Wonderful Time of the Year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And the citizens of Twinkie Town were nestled snug in their beds with hopes that Terry Ryan gives Mark Buehrle a deal that includes a full no-trade clause. That is the latest rumor there.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
Champagne SuperTolbert Saves the day!!!
SI.com's Jon Heyman tweets that Buehrle is seeking $14MM annually.
No. Mark. Buehrle.
by spanspanspan on Dec 5, 2011 12:05 AM EST up reply actions
But he also wants a no-trade clause
Maybe we can do $12 million for five years and a full no-trade clause. For the record, I don’t think $14 million per year is out of our range, for Buehrle at least.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
Champagne SuperTolbert Saves the day!!!
agreed...
no thanks. Hell, we may as well sign CJ Wilson if we’re going to do that; he’s better and younger. Or Edwin Jackson; ditto.
I'm in no hurry to give Buehrle that kind of jing either
but…I was just looking at his career. It’s unreal how consistent he’s been. Guy has had 11 full seasons in the majors and has pitched over 200 innings in every single one of them. He’s had significantly above average results, and he more or less has the same season every freaking year.
Obviously, that could end any time, but given the market, if you are going to invest significant money and years in a starting pitcher, he might be the guy.
The Wolves are like the worst meal you've ever had--terrible while you're eating it and even worse later.
by Eric in Madison on Dec 5, 2011 9:11 AM EST up reply actions
Am I the ONLY one . . .
Who thinks Nishi has a big upside? I see him adding 30 BA points and getting settled in the field and being a really solid part of the infield. And I like Casilla. Call me crazy, but if somebody doesn’t break his leg six days into his MLB career, I don’t think we would even worry about the middle infield.
by Theo77 on Dec 5, 2011 5:17 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
You're crazy ;)
Since you asked.
Nishi may have that upside, but he had a lot of time to show it post-injury and it didn’t happen.
I don’t like Casilla. Too inconsistent. His overall numbers reflect short periods of great that are overwhelmed with long periods of bad.
I'm willing to give him a 2nd chance.
Let’s see how he does in Spring Training and go from there. But I don’t anyone was ever crazy enough to think Nishi was going to hit 30+ homers like Pohshow said below. That’s not realistic.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
#OccupyTwinkieTown
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Dec 5, 2011 9:09 AM EST up reply actions
I'm still pulling for Nishioka
He did show a lot of raw talent. Very good bat control. He is pretty hard working. If he can make the right adjustments—the grass and the strikezone—he’ll be good.
I just don’t now if he’ll pull it off.
"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez
Crazy
Nishi played in 68 games. It’s a decent sample size. I expect some improvement, no doubt. 30 BA points should be easy considering he hit .226. You can get by hitting .250 if you crush 30+ homers. Nishi might hit 1 homerun over a full season.
You have to be better than .250, 0, 50 to be a starter on a competitive MLB team.
Not necessarily true.
A competitive MLB team can get by with this kind of guy, provided they have other talent around the roster to make up for it. If that .250, 0, 50 guy plays superior defense, and the team has the pitching and offense around him, then it doesn’t matter. Hell, guys like Craig Counsell and David Eckstein were on World Series winning teams.
Yes well, the key point there is
having other talent to make up for it. Look, most teams are going to have a weak spot or 2 in the lineup. But the Twins are looking at a running several guys out there who are going to be somewhere between below average and replacement level offensively for their positions.
The Wolves are like the worst meal you've ever had--terrible while you're eating it and even worse later.
by Eric in Madison on Dec 5, 2011 9:55 AM EST up reply actions
Good point.
There were some good players on those teams. And we do have Mauer and Morneau if they stay healthy. Are you saying though, that Nishi plays superior defense? I’m not really sure. I know he seemed to play a better SS than 2B.
Well, I think he might
play really good defense (not superior). I believe there is likely to be an adjustment period that would be lengthened considerably by “DAMN! That guy broke my leg!” And I’m not saying Nishi/Casilla would be great, only that we wouldn’t even have noticed them with Elmon having a sucky year and M&M jockeying for a guest spot on House. And our Bullpen being several different kinds of melt-down.
The thing is, we may have a perfectly adequate infield — I worry about other parts of the team a whole lot more.
Nishi's defense wasn't that bad
He was a lot better than Plouffe. Nishi made some great plays, he just made a lot of stupid mistakes too. He needs to figure that out, don’t think it’s impossible.
"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez
He never had the ball hit that hard at him before
Most of his stupid mistakes were getting handcuffed by really hard hit balls.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Not really
He didn’t have any hand-eye coordination errors. It was more, picking up off the grass and the ball popping out of the the glove. If he can get used to the grass and the size of an MLB baseball, should be good. But like I said—I’m not so sure he ever will.
"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez
...and
having bouncers hit him in the chest. I think cmath might be on to something with the harder hit balls.
Were you watching the same guy?
I saw the ball clank off his glove three times in the same week.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I voted for none...
but I shouldn’t have. The Rule 5 draft is on Thursday, lest we forget, and even though it’s a more watered down draft now with another year of team control, we still have a fairly good shot at getting a guy we’ll keep all year with the #2 pick. Hopefully a power reliever or solid middle infield utility player.
Using my awesome Google Translating skills
It sounds like if the Twins go after one of the Japanese pitchers, they are leaning more towards Tsuyoshi Wada than Hisashi Iwakuma. Iwakuma’s arm injury last year seems to be scaring them off.
"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez
Thank the Nishi sweepstakes last year
Sign one Japanese player and others will want to jump aboard.
That's actually....
sort of true.
I know most see the Nishi signing, so far, as a failure. But from a business standpoint, they really didn’t lose. Got a big merchandise bump in Japan, for sure.
"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez
Woah. We might have two Tsuyoshis?
/mind blown
/preemptively drinks a liter of vodka before Bert mispronunciates* it more.
*I know.

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